ECONOMICS & MARKETS RESEARCH GREATER CHINA ECONOMICS

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1 ECONOMICS & MARKETS RESEARCH GREATER CHINA ECONOMICS 21 JULY 2010 CONTRIBUTORS Li-Gang Liu Head of China Economics L ig a n g. L i a n z. c o m Felix Leung Analyst, Economic Research Felix.Leung@anz.com RMB AGREEMENT BOOSTS HONG KONG AS OFF-SHORE RMB CENTRE Restrictions on renminbi business transactions in Hong Kong have been relaxed with this week s signing of an amendment to the 2009 renminbi (RMB) trade settlement agreement between The People s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). The amendment allows Hong Kong-based banks, securities companies, and asset management firms to develop and sell RMBdenominated financial products. This agreement is a significant step towards the increased use of the RMB off shore, thus accelerating its internationalisation, and will help Hong Kong establish itself as an off-shore RMB centre. Greater use of the RMB will give Hong Kong-based banks and financial institutions a new source of revenue. However, as the RMB becomes a convertible currency in Hong Kong, there is doubt as to whether Hong Kong s dollar peg will continue in the foreseeable future. DETAILS OF THE ANNOUNCEMENT Key points to the amendment on RMB services include: 1. Deposit taking: Participating Authorised Institutions (AIs) are allowed to open RMB deposit accounts for all enterprises, rather than the previously designated seven industrial sectors. Also, there are no restrictions on the offer of RMB-denominated financial products. 2. Currency conversion: There is no upper limit on conversion services provided by an AI, as long as the AI squares the corresponding open position with a clearing bank. However, AIs do not have to square the open position with other participating AIs. Therefore, AIs will need to use their own RMB deposits to satisfy an enteprise s RMB conversion. Prior to the amendment, Hong Kong residents were able to exchange RMB for HKD, or vice versa, with an upper limit of RMB 20,000 per person, per transaction. 3. Remittances: Hong Kong AIs are no longer required to verify if the remitter or the Mainland-based recipient has complied with Mainland China s regulations. 4. Interbank transfers, use of cheques and cash withdrawals: There is no restriction on the transfer of RMB funds between customers within the same AI or not. Similarly, there are no restrictions on cash deposits and withdrawals from RMB-denominated accounts held by an enterprise.

2 RMB Settlement Amendment / 21 July 2010 / 2 of 6 5. RMB loans: Restrictions have been removed on the type of enterprise granted an RMB loan and on the type of RMB loans that can be granted to an enterprise. Separately, companies will now be able to convert the RMB to repay their trade finance, and the associated open position may be squared with a clearing bank. 6. RMB bonds: Any enterprise with an RMB deposit account maintained with a participating AI can invest in RMB bonds issued in Hong Kong. AIs can issue RMB certificate of deposits (CDs) in Hong Kong. Also, restrictions have been lifted on remittances to China from monies raised through an RMB bond issuance in Hong Kong. These funds can also be converted into other currencies. IMPLICATIONS FOR RENMINBI BUSINESS IN HONG KONG 1) Hong Kong is now able to conduct trade using the RMB with 20 cities and provinces in Mainland China; previously RMB trade was limited to five cities. In addition, Hong Kong AIs will now handle cross-border yuan settlements between Taiwan and Mainland China. According to the latest statistics from the HKMA, trade settlements using the RMB as an invoicing currency between Hong Kong and Mainland China has reached RMB23.6bn. Meanwhile, RMB deposits in Hong Kong were close to RMB90bn. The signing of this amendment will rapidly increase the circulation of the RMB. It will also lay the foundation for Hong Kong to become an off-shore RMB trading centre, strengthening its role as an international financial centre. RENMINBI DEPOSITS AND NON-DELIVERABLE FORWARDS (NDF) RMB Deposits vs. NDF RMB deposits, bn yuan NDF, 3-month (RHS) Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun Sources: CEIC, Bloomberg and ANZ Economics 2) Wider use of the RMB will enhance the profitability of Hong Kong-based banks. These banks will see an immediate boost to their business through the ability to grant RMB-denominated corporate loans. Based on current RMB deposits and using a loan-to-deposit ratio of 52% and an interest rate of 5.31%, we calculate that RMB-denominated loans could generate an RMB1.47bn profit for Hong Kong-based banks. Hong Kong banks will also be able to provide a greater range of investment products to their clients, for example, issuing additional RMB-denominated bonds, insurance products, or structured products. With the RMB s increased flexibility and continued appreciation, these products will be attractive to companies and individuals alike. Within a day of the announcement, RMB-denominated products had been launched by a number of Hong Kong s major banks.

3 RMB Settlement Amendment / 21 July 2010 / 3 of 6 RENMINBI-DENOMINATED BOND ISSUES IN HONG KONG Issuer Collateral Type Issue Date Issue Size Tenor Coupon Ratings (Moody's/S&P) Senior Unsecured Jul 2007 RMB 5bn 2 years 3.00% - / - China Development Bank Senior Unsecured Aug 2009 RMB 1bn 2 years Floating - / - Senior Unsecured Aug 2009 RMB 2bn 2 years 2.45% - / A+ Export and Import Bank of China Bank of China Unsubordinated Senior Unsecured Jul 2007 Jul 2007 RMB 2bn RMB 3bn 2 & 3 years 2 & 3 years 3.05% & 3.20% 3.15% & 3.35% A1 / A+ - / A- Unsecured Senior Unsecured Sep 2008 Sep 2008 RMB 3bn RMB 3bn 3 years 2 & 3 years 3.40% 3.25% & 3.40% - / - - / A- Bank of Communications Senior Unsecured Jul 2008 RMB 3bn 2 years 3.25% - / BBB+ China Construction Bank Senior Unsecured Sep 2008 RMB 3bn 2 years 3.24% - / A- Bank of East Asia (China) Senior Unsecured Jul 2009 RMB 4bn 2 years 2.80% - / A- HSBC (China) Senior Unsecured Jul 2009 RMB 3bn 2 years Floating - / - Senior Unsecured Sep 2009 RMB 2bn 2 years 2.60% - / - Ministry of Finance Senior Unsecured Oct 2009 RMB 6bn 2, 3 & 5 years 2.25%, 2.70% & 3.30% - / - Sources: HKMA and Bloomberg RENMINBI-DENOMINATED PRODUCTS LAUNCHED YESTERDAY AFTER ANNOUNCEMENT Issuer HSBC SCB Citic Bank BCoM Investment Products RMB denominated currency link RMB saving deposits preferential rate offer for new clients RMB denominated structured products RMB saving deposits preferential rate offer for new clients RMB saving deposits preferential rate offer for new clients 3) The amendment has important implications for the liberalisation of China s capital account. Allowing the RMB to circulate more freely in Hong Kong encourages its use by the rest of the world. At present, China has signed a currency swap arrangement with up to six nations. We view the removal of restrictions on the RMB s wider use in Hong Kong as a test case for the further liberalisation of China s capital account. However, Hong Kong s dollar peg is now in question if the RMB becomes a fully convertible currency. We expect Hong Kong s peg to the USD will continue for the next five to ten years until the RMB is fully convertible. RENMINBI SWAP ARRANGEMENTS Date Counterparty RMB bn Dec 2008 Korea Jan 2009 HKSAR Feb 2009 Malaysia 80.0 Belarus 20.0 Mar 2009 Indonesia Argentina 70.0 Total Sources: HKMA and Bloomberg

4 RMB Settlement Amendment / 21 July 2010 / 4 of 6 APPENDIX KEY DEVELOPMENTS TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONISATION OF THE RENMINBI Feb & Apr 2004 HK banks started their RMB businesses, including deposits, remittances, currency exchange and credit cards. Mar 2006 HKMA and BoC (HK) jointly launched the new RMB settlement system (RSS). HK residents allowed to open a cheque account. Jun 2009 PBoC and HKMA signed a supplementary memo of RMB trade settlement. Feb 2010 Chinese banks and companies, whose headquarters are not located in the Mainland, were allowed to issue RMB-denominated bonds in HK. Jul 2010 HK RMB Clearing Platform for Taiwan; PBOC and HKMA signed a settlement agreement Dec 2005 Jun 2007 Jul 2009 Jun 2010 PBoC and HKMA allowed 7 designated sectors to open their RMB account. Cap: RMB 20,000 per day; transfer payment: RMB 80,000 PBoC and HKMA allowed domestic financial institutions to issue RMB denominated bonds in HK. PBoC and HKMA imposed a Cross-border RMB Settlement Pilot Scheme. Trials region included 4 cities in Guangdong provinces and Shanghai. Outside Mainland: HK, Macao & ASEAN Expansion of RMB trade settlement scheme to 20 cities (and provinces). Sources: HKMA and HKEJ

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