SOUTH CAROLINA ESEA SUPPLEMENTALSTUDY
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- Della Harris
- 7 years ago
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1 SOUTH CAROLINA ESEA SUPPLEMENTALSTUDY A Study of the Alignment of the RIT Scale with South Carolina s PASS assessment in accordance with the South Carolina ESEA Waiver October 2012 Updated April, 2013 COPYRIGHT 2012 NORTHWEST EVALUATION ASSOCIATION All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from. 1
2 A STUDY OF THE ALIGNMENT OF THE RIT ALE WITH SOUTH CAROLINA S PASS ASSESSMENT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SOUTH CAROLINA ESEA WAIVER OCTOBER 2012 Recently, completed a project to review our prior (2011) study that connected the scale of South Carolina s Palmetto Assessment of State Standards (PASS) used for South Carolina s mathematics and reading assessments with s RIT scale. Information from students who had completed both assessments was used in that study to establish minimum cut scores on the RIT scale that would indicate a good chance of meeting or exceeding the various performance levels on the PASS tests. s South Carolina partners should be aware of a few substantial changes in the way accountability is measured in South Carolina. One major change to the state s accountability system is that Annual Measurable s (AMO) are now based on school level mean scale scores rather than the percent of students meeting their proficiency targets. A close examination of Figure 1 illustrates the differences between the current and former accountability methods. Figure 1 Comparison of Percent Proficient and School Means 1 1 Source: Final.pdf 2
3 Table 1 contains the average PASS scores that students within a school must meet in order to meet the new objectives. Notice that these objectives differ by school level (elementary, middle, or high school), and that the objectives grow progressively more difficult for every school year after Thus, the RIT equivalent minimum/cut scores included in this supplemental study also increase year by year. Table 1 South Carolina ESEA 2 Mean Student Scores on State Standards Assessments and End-Of-Course Examinations ELA Math Elementary Middle High Elementary Middle High Science Social Studies Elementary Middle High Elementary Middle High In its reanalysis of the former MAP/PASS linking studies, cut scores were identified on the MAP assessments for reading and general mathematics that provided reasonable assurance of meeting the corresponding PASS/HSAP scores in ELA or mathematics, as shown in Table 1. Partners should also be aware that the estimated RIT scores associated meeting the objectives are computed, by necessity, at the individual grade level rather than by a school due to the fact that the PASS does not employ a single, vertical, cross-grade, scale. Consequently, the annual measurable objectives for each school level and school year must be broken into grade-specific MAP cut scores. It should be noted that at this time, s reporting system will continue to report proficiency predictions that are based on the performance levels of PASS and HSAP, and not the annual measurable objectives outlined in the ESEA waiver. In order to better understand how to use this study, we have included an example. Table 2 contains the elementary-level AMO targets and the associated RIT targets by grade. While this study is not able to directly estimate the probability of an elementary school meeting its AMO target, the school could be considered on track for success if all students in grades three, four and five have RIT scores greater than 206, 212 and 224 respectively. 2 Source: Final.pdf 3
4 Table 2 School Level Performance Example Year School Subject Grade AMO Target RIT TARGET RIT TARGET PERCENTILE School A Math School A Math School A Math To perform the analysis, we linked together state test and test results for a sample of 39,084 South Carolina students who completed both exams in the spring of The South Carolina state test is administered in the spring. For the spring season (labeled current season ), an Equipercentile method was used to estimate the RIT score equivalent to each state performance level. For fall (labeled prior season ), we determined the percentage of the population within the selected study group that performed at each level on the state test and found the equivalent percentile ranges within the dataset to estimate the cut scores. For example, if 40% of the study group population in grade 3 mathematics performed below the proficient level on the state test, we would find the RIT score that would be equivalent to the 40 th percentile for the study population (this would not be the same as the 40 th percentile in the norms). This RIT score would be the estimated point on the RIT scale that would be equivalent to the minimum score for proficiency on the state test. Documentation about this method can be found on our website. Table Sets 3 and 4 show the best estimate of the minimum RIT equivalent to the AMO scale score for same-season (spring) and prior-season (fall). These tables can be used to identify students who may need additional help to meet these standards. partners using this study need to ensure the RIT minimum/cut scores correspond to the current academic year. Table Sets 5 and 6 show the a student meeting the requisite AMO scale score on the state assessment, based on that student s RIT score. These tables can be used to assist in identifying students who are not likely to pass these assessments, thereby increasing the probability that intervention strategies will be planned and implemented. These tables can also be useful for identifying target RIT-score objectives likely to meet the requisite AMO. Table 7 shows the correlation coefficients between MAP and the state test in each grade. These statistics show the degree to which MAP and the state test are linearly related, with values at or near 1.0 suggesting a perfect linear relationship, and values near 0.0 indicating no linear relationship. Table 8 shows the percentages of students at each grade and within each subject whose status on the state test (i.e., whether or not their performance met the target AMO scale score) was accurately predicted by their MAP performance and using the estimated cut scores within the current study. This table can be used to understand the predictive validity of MAP with respect to the PASS. Please note results from this study do not appear in the Dynamic Reporting System (DRS). Individual student performance level and probability estimates used in the DRS system continue to be derived from the 2011 South Carolina linking study. 3 3 Source: 010_Revised_Final.pdf 4
5 TABLE SET 3 MINIMUM ESTIMATED SAME-SEASON (SPRING) RIT CUT ORES CORRESPONDING TO STATE PERFORMANCE LEVELS MATH - Current Season Grade READING - Current Season Grade * Note: the cut scores shown in this table are the minimum estimated scores. Meeting the minimum MAP cut score corresponds to a 50% probability of achieving that objective. Use the probabilities in Table Set 3 to determine the appropriate target scores for a desired level of certainty. 5
6 TABLE SET 4 MINIMUM ESTIMATED PRIOR-SEASON (FALL) RIT CUT ORES CORRESPONDING TO STATE PERFORMANCE LEVELS MATH - Prior Season Grade Grade READING - Prior Season * Note: the cut scores shown in this table are the minimum estimated scores. Meeting the minimum MAP cut score corresponds to a 50% probability of achieving that objective. Use the probabilities in Table Set 4 to determine the appropriate target scores for a desired level of certainty. 6
7 TABLE SET 5 ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF ORING AS PROFICIENT OR HIGHER ON THE STATE TEST IN SAME SEASON (SPRING), BY STUDENT GRADE AND RIT ORE RANGE ON MAP ASSESSMENT MATH - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 170 9% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 12% 7% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% % 18% 11% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% % 27% 17% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 38% 25% 10% 7% 4% 2% 2% % 50% 35% 15% 11% 6% 3% 3% % 62% 48% 23% 17% 10% 5% 5% % 73% 60% 33% 25% 15% 8% 8% % 82% 71% 45% 35% 23% 13% 13% % 88% 80% 57% 48% 33% 20% 20% % 92% 87% 69% 60% 45% 29% 29% % 95% 92% 79% 71% 57% 40% 40% % 97% 95% 86% 80% 69% 52% 52% % 98% 97% 91% 87% 79% 65% 65% % 99% 98% 94% 92% 86% 75% 75% % 99% 99% 96% 95% 91% 83% 83% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 94% 89% 89% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 96% 93% 93% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 10%. 7
8 READING - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 9% 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 9% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% % 14% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 21% 10% 8% 5% 3% 2% 2% % 31% 15% 12% 8% 5% 4% 3% % 43% 23% 18% 12% 8% 6% 5% % 55% 33% 27% 18% 13% 9% 8% % 67% 45% 38% 27% 20% 14% 12% % 77% 57% 50% 38% 29% 21% 18% % 85% 69% 62% 50% 40% 31% 27% % 90% 79% 73% 62% 52% 43% 38% % 94% 86% 82% 73% 65% 55% 50% % 96% 91% 88% 82% 75% 67% 62% % 98% 94% 92% 88% 83% 77% 73% % 99% 96% 95% 92% 89% 85% 82% % 99% 98% 97% 95% 93% 90% 88% % 99% 99% 98% 97% 96% 94% 92% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 27%. 8
9 MATH - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 170 8% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 7% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 11% 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 17% 10% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% % 25% 15% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 35% 23% 8% 6% 3% 2% 2% % 48% 33% 13% 9% 5% 3% 3% % 60% 45% 20% 14% 8% 5% 4% % 71% 57% 29% 21% 13% 8% 7% % 80% 69% 40% 31% 20% 12% 11% % 87% 79% 52% 43% 29% 18% 17% % 92% 86% 65% 55% 40% 27% 25% % 95% 91% 75% 67% 52% 38% 35% % 97% 94% 83% 77% 65% 50% 48% % 98% 96% 89% 85% 75% 62% 60% % 99% 98% 93% 90% 83% 73% 71% % 99% 99% 96% 94% 89% 82% 80% % 100% 99% 97% 96% 93% 88% 87% % 100% 100% 98% 98% 96% 92% 92% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 95% 95% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 8%. 9
10 READING - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 9% 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 9% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% % 14% 6% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% % 21% 9% 7% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 31% 14% 11% 6% 4% 3% 2% % 43% 21% 17% 10% 7% 5% 4% % 55% 31% 25% 15% 11% 8% 6% % 67% 43% 35% 23% 17% 12% 10% % 77% 55% 48% 33% 25% 18% 15% % 85% 67% 60% 45% 35% 27% 23% % 90% 77% 71% 57% 48% 38% 33% % 94% 85% 80% 69% 60% 50% 45% % 96% 90% 87% 79% 71% 62% 57% % 98% 94% 92% 86% 80% 73% 69% % 99% 96% 95% 91% 87% 82% 79% % 99% 98% 97% 94% 92% 88% 86% % 99% 99% 98% 96% 95% 92% 91% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% 94% % 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 97% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 25%. 10
11 MATH - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 170 8% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 10% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 15% 8% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 23% 13% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 33% 20% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% % 45% 29% 12% 8% 5% 3% 2% % 57% 40% 18% 13% 8% 4% 4% % 69% 52% 27% 20% 12% 7% 6% % 79% 65% 38% 29% 18% 11% 9% % 86% 75% 50% 40% 27% 17% 14% % 91% 83% 62% 52% 38% 25% 21% % 94% 89% 73% 65% 50% 35% 31% % 96% 93% 82% 75% 62% 48% 43% % 98% 96% 88% 83% 73% 60% 55% % 99% 97% 92% 89% 82% 71% 67% % 99% 98% 95% 93% 88% 80% 77% % 100% 99% 97% 96% 92% 87% 85% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 95% 92% 90% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% 95% 94% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 8%. 11
12 READING - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 8% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 8% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% % 13% 5% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% % 20% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2% 1% % 29% 12% 9% 5% 4% 3% 2% % 40% 18% 14% 8% 7% 4% 3% % 52% 27% 21% 13% 11% 7% 5% % 65% 38% 31% 20% 17% 11% 8% % 75% 50% 43% 29% 25% 17% 12% % 83% 62% 55% 40% 35% 25% 18% % 89% 73% 67% 52% 48% 35% 27% % 93% 82% 77% 65% 60% 48% 38% % 96% 88% 85% 75% 71% 60% 50% % 97% 92% 90% 83% 80% 71% 62% % 98% 95% 94% 89% 87% 80% 73% % 99% 97% 96% 93% 92% 87% 82% % 99% 98% 98% 96% 95% 92% 88% % 100% 99% 99% 97% 97% 95% 92% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% 97% 95% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 21%. 12
13 MATH - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 170 7% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 9% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 14% 8% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 21% 12% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 31% 18% 6% 5% 3% 1% 1% % 43% 27% 10% 8% 4% 2% 2% % 55% 38% 15% 12% 7% 4% 3% % 67% 50% 23% 18% 11% 6% 5% % 77% 62% 33% 27% 17% 10% 8% % 85% 73% 45% 38% 25% 15% 13% % 90% 82% 57% 50% 35% 23% 20% % 94% 88% 69% 62% 48% 33% 29% % 96% 92% 79% 73% 60% 45% 40% % 98% 95% 86% 82% 71% 57% 52% % 99% 97% 91% 88% 80% 69% 65% % 99% 98% 94% 92% 87% 79% 75% % 99% 99% 96% 95% 92% 86% 83% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 95% 91% 89% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% 94% 93% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 6%. 13
14 READING - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 7% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 7% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% % 11% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% % 17% 8% 6% 3% 2% 2% 1% % 25% 12% 9% 5% 4% 3% 1% % 35% 18% 14% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 48% 27% 21% 13% 10% 7% 4% % 60% 38% 31% 20% 15% 11% 6% % 71% 50% 43% 29% 23% 17% 10% % 80% 62% 55% 40% 33% 25% 15% % 87% 73% 67% 52% 45% 35% 23% % 92% 82% 77% 65% 57% 48% 33% % 95% 88% 85% 75% 69% 60% 45% % 97% 92% 90% 83% 79% 71% 57% % 98% 95% 94% 89% 86% 80% 69% % 99% 97% 96% 93% 91% 87% 79% % 99% 98% 98% 96% 94% 92% 86% % 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% 91% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% 97% 94% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 21%. 14
15 MATH - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 170 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 13% 7% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% % 20% 11% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% % 29% 17% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 40% 25% 9% 7% 4% 2% 2% % 52% 35% 14% 11% 6% 4% 3% % 65% 48% 21% 17% 10% 6% 4% % 75% 60% 31% 25% 15% 9% 7% % 83% 71% 43% 35% 23% 14% 11% % 89% 80% 55% 48% 33% 21% 17% % 93% 87% 67% 60% 45% 31% 25% % 96% 92% 77% 71% 57% 43% 35% % 97% 95% 85% 80% 69% 55% 48% % 98% 97% 90% 87% 79% 67% 60% % 99% 98% 94% 92% 86% 77% 71% % 99% 99% 96% 95% 91% 85% 80% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 94% 90% 87% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 96% 94% 92% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 95% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 6%. 15
16 READING - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 10% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 15% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 23% 10% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% % 33% 15% 12% 8% 5% 4% 2% % 45% 23% 18% 12% 8% 6% 4% % 57% 33% 27% 18% 13% 9% 6% % 69% 45% 38% 27% 20% 14% 9% % 79% 57% 50% 38% 29% 21% 14% % 86% 69% 62% 50% 40% 31% 21% % 91% 79% 73% 62% 52% 43% 31% % 94% 86% 82% 73% 65% 55% 43% % 96% 91% 88% 82% 75% 67% 55% % 98% 94% 92% 88% 83% 77% 67% % 99% 96% 95% 92% 89% 85% 77% % 99% 98% 97% 95% 93% 90% 85% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 94% 90% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 96% 94% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 18%. 16
17 MATH - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 170 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 175 8% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 7% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 11% 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 17% 10% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 25% 15% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 35% 23% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% % 48% 33% 12% 10% 6% 3% 2% % 60% 45% 18% 15% 9% 5% 4% % 71% 57% 27% 23% 14% 8% 6% % 80% 69% 38% 33% 21% 12% 9% % 87% 79% 50% 45% 31% 18% 14% % 92% 86% 62% 57% 43% 27% 21% % 95% 91% 73% 69% 55% 38% 31% % 97% 94% 82% 79% 67% 50% 43% % 98% 96% 88% 86% 77% 62% 55% % 99% 98% 92% 91% 85% 73% 67% % 99% 99% 95% 94% 90% 82% 77% % 100% 99% 97% 96% 94% 88% 85% % 100% 100% 98% 98% 96% 92% 90% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 95% 94% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 97% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 5%. 17
18 READING - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 170 8% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 8% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 13% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 20% 9% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% % 29% 14% 10% 8% 4% 3% 2% % 40% 21% 15% 12% 7% 5% 3% % 52% 31% 23% 18% 11% 8% 5% % 65% 43% 33% 27% 17% 12% 8% % 75% 55% 45% 38% 25% 18% 13% % 83% 67% 57% 50% 35% 27% 20% % 89% 77% 69% 62% 48% 38% 29% % 93% 85% 79% 73% 60% 50% 40% % 96% 90% 86% 82% 71% 62% 52% % 97% 94% 91% 88% 80% 73% 65% % 98% 96% 94% 92% 87% 82% 75% % 99% 98% 96% 95% 92% 88% 83% % 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% 92% 89% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% 93% % 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 97% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 15%. 18
19 MATH - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 170 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 175 8% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 10% 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 15% 9% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 23% 14% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 33% 21% 7% 6% 3% 2% 1% % 45% 31% 11% 9% 5% 3% 2% % 57% 43% 17% 14% 8% 4% 3% % 69% 55% 25% 21% 12% 7% 5% % 79% 67% 35% 31% 18% 11% 8% % 86% 77% 48% 43% 27% 17% 12% % 91% 85% 60% 55% 38% 25% 18% % 94% 90% 71% 67% 50% 35% 27% % 96% 94% 80% 77% 62% 48% 38% % 98% 96% 87% 85% 73% 60% 50% % 99% 98% 92% 90% 82% 71% 62% % 99% 99% 95% 94% 88% 80% 73% % 100% 99% 97% 96% 92% 87% 82% % 100% 99% 98% 98% 95% 92% 88% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 95% 92% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 4%. 19
20 READING - Current Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 170 8% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 8% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% % 13% 6% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% % 20% 9% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 29% 14% 10% 6% 4% 3% 2% % 40% 21% 15% 10% 7% 5% 3% % 52% 31% 23% 15% 11% 8% 4% % 65% 43% 33% 23% 17% 12% 7% % 75% 55% 45% 33% 25% 18% 11% % 83% 67% 57% 45% 35% 27% 17% % 89% 77% 69% 57% 48% 38% 25% % 93% 85% 79% 69% 60% 50% 35% % 96% 90% 86% 79% 71% 62% 48% % 97% 94% 91% 86% 80% 73% 60% % 98% 96% 94% 91% 87% 82% 71% % 99% 98% 96% 94% 92% 88% 80% % 99% 99% 98% 96% 95% 92% 87% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% 92% % 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that same (spring) meeting the AMO is 15%. 20
21 TABLE SET 6 ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF ORING AS PROFICIENT OR HIGHER ON THE STATE TEST IN PRIOR SEASON (FALL), BY STUDENT GRADE AND RIT ORE RANGE ON MAP MATH - Prior Season ( ) 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 8% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 13% 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 20% 10% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% % 29% 15% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% % 40% 23% 8% 5% 2% 1% 1% % 52% 33% 13% 8% 4% 2% 2% % 65% 45% 20% 12% 6% 3% 3% % 75% 57% 29% 18% 10% 5% 4% % 83% 69% 40% 27% 15% 8% 7% % 89% 79% 52% 38% 23% 13% 11% % 93% 86% 65% 50% 33% 20% 17% % 96% 91% 75% 62% 45% 29% 25% % 97% 94% 83% 73% 57% 40% 35% % 98% 96% 89% 82% 69% 52% 48% % 99% 98% 93% 88% 79% 65% 60% % 99% 99% 96% 92% 86% 75% 71% % 100% 99% 97% 95% 91% 83% 80% % 100% 100% 98% 97% 94% 89% 87% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 96% 93% 92% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 20%. 21
22 READING - Prior Season ( ) 125 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 8% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 9% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 14% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 21% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 31% 12% 8% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 43% 18% 12% 7% 5% 3% 2% % 55% 27% 18% 11% 8% 5% 3% % 67% 38% 27% 17% 12% 8% 5% % 77% 50% 38% 25% 18% 12% 8% % 85% 62% 50% 35% 27% 18% 13% % 90% 73% 62% 48% 38% 27% 20% % 94% 82% 73% 60% 50% 38% 29% % 96% 88% 82% 71% 62% 50% 40% % 98% 92% 88% 80% 73% 62% 52% % 99% 95% 92% 87% 82% 73% 65% % 99% 97% 95% 92% 88% 82% 75% % 99% 98% 97% 95% 92% 88% 83% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 95% 92% 89% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% 93% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 38%. 22
23 MATH - Prior Season ( ) 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 7% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 12% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 18% 9% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 27% 14% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 38% 21% 8% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 50% 31% 12% 6% 3% 2% 1% % 62% 43% 18% 10% 5% 3% 2% % 73% 55% 27% 15% 8% 5% 4% % 82% 67% 38% 23% 13% 8% 6% % 88% 77% 50% 33% 20% 12% 9% % 92% 85% 62% 45% 29% 18% 14% % 95% 90% 73% 57% 40% 27% 21% % 97% 94% 82% 69% 52% 38% 31% % 98% 96% 88% 79% 65% 50% 43% % 99% 98% 92% 86% 75% 62% 55% % 99% 99% 95% 91% 83% 73% 67% % 100% 99% 97% 94% 89% 82% 77% % 100% 99% 98% 96% 93% 88% 85% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 96% 92% 90% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 95% 94% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 18%. 23
24 READING - Prior Season ( ) 125 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 8% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 9% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 14% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% % 21% 7% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% % 31% 11% 8% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 43% 17% 12% 6% 4% 2% 2% % 55% 25% 18% 9% 6% 4% 3% % 67% 35% 27% 14% 10% 6% 4% % 77% 48% 38% 21% 15% 10% 7% % 85% 60% 50% 31% 23% 15% 11% % 90% 71% 62% 43% 33% 23% 17% % 94% 80% 73% 55% 45% 33% 25% % 96% 87% 82% 67% 57% 45% 35% % 98% 92% 88% 77% 69% 57% 48% % 99% 95% 92% 85% 79% 69% 60% % 99% 97% 95% 90% 86% 79% 71% % 99% 98% 97% 94% 91% 86% 80% % 100% 99% 98% 96% 94% 91% 87% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 94% 92% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 38%. 24
25 MATH - Prior Season ( ) 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 7% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 11% 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 17% 8% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 25% 12% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 35% 18% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 48% 27% 10% 6% 3% 2% 1% % 60% 38% 15% 10% 5% 3% 2% % 71% 50% 23% 15% 8% 4% 3% % 80% 62% 33% 23% 12% 7% 5% % 87% 73% 45% 33% 18% 11% 8% % 92% 82% 57% 45% 27% 17% 12% % 95% 88% 69% 57% 38% 25% 18% % 97% 92% 79% 69% 50% 35% 27% % 98% 95% 86% 79% 62% 48% 38% % 99% 97% 91% 86% 73% 60% 50% % 99% 98% 94% 91% 82% 71% 62% % 100% 99% 96% 94% 88% 80% 73% % 100% 99% 98% 96% 92% 87% 82% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 95% 92% 88% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 95% 92% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 15%. 25
26 READING - Prior Season ( ) 125 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 13% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 20% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 29% 9% 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 40% 14% 10% 5% 4% 2% 1% % 52% 21% 15% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 65% 31% 23% 12% 10% 6% 4% % 75% 43% 33% 18% 15% 9% 6% % 83% 55% 45% 27% 23% 14% 9% % 89% 67% 57% 38% 33% 21% 14% % 93% 77% 69% 50% 45% 31% 21% % 96% 85% 79% 62% 57% 43% 31% % 97% 90% 86% 73% 69% 55% 43% % 98% 94% 91% 82% 79% 67% 55% % 99% 96% 94% 88% 86% 77% 67% % 99% 98% 96% 92% 91% 85% 77% % 100% 99% 98% 95% 94% 90% 85% % 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 94% 90% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% 96% 94% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 33%. 26
27 MATH - Prior Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 6% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 9% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 10% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 15% 7% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 23% 11% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 33% 17% 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 45% 25% 9% 5% 3% 1% 1% % 57% 35% 14% 8% 5% 2% 2% % 69% 48% 21% 13% 8% 4% 3% % 79% 60% 31% 20% 12% 6% 4% % 86% 71% 43% 29% 18% 10% 7% % 91% 80% 55% 40% 27% 15% 11% % 94% 87% 67% 52% 38% 23% 17% % 96% 92% 77% 65% 50% 33% 25% % 98% 95% 85% 75% 62% 45% 35% % 99% 97% 90% 83% 73% 57% 48% % 99% 98% 94% 89% 82% 69% 60% % 100% 99% 96% 93% 88% 79% 71% % 100% 99% 98% 96% 92% 86% 80% % 100% 100% 99% 97% 95% 91% 87% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% 94% 92% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 14%. 27
28 READING - Prior Season ( ) 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 9% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 7% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 11% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 17% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 25% 9% 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 35% 14% 10% 5% 4% 2% 1% % 48% 21% 15% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 60% 31% 23% 12% 9% 6% 3% % 71% 43% 33% 18% 14% 9% 4% % 80% 55% 45% 27% 21% 14% 7% % 87% 67% 57% 38% 31% 21% 11% % 92% 77% 69% 50% 43% 31% 17% % 95% 85% 79% 62% 55% 43% 25% % 97% 90% 86% 73% 67% 55% 35% % 98% 94% 91% 82% 77% 67% 48% % 99% 96% 94% 88% 85% 77% 60% % 99% 98% 96% 92% 90% 85% 71% % 100% 99% 98% 95% 94% 90% 80% % 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 94% 87% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% 96% 92% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 33%. 28
29 MATH - Prior Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 8% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 9% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 14% 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 21% 10% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% % 31% 15% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% % 43% 23% 8% 5% 3% 1% 1% % 55% 33% 13% 8% 4% 2% 1% % 67% 45% 20% 13% 7% 4% 2% % 77% 57% 29% 20% 11% 6% 4% % 85% 69% 40% 29% 17% 9% 6% % 90% 79% 52% 40% 25% 14% 9% % 94% 86% 65% 52% 35% 21% 14% % 96% 91% 75% 65% 48% 31% 21% % 98% 94% 83% 75% 60% 43% 31% % 99% 96% 89% 83% 71% 55% 43% % 99% 98% 93% 89% 80% 67% 55% % 99% 99% 96% 93% 87% 77% 67% % 100% 99% 97% 96% 92% 85% 77% % 100% 100% 98% 97% 95% 90% 85% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% 94% 90% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 94% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 13%. 29
30 READING - Prior Season ( ) 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 8% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 9% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 14% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 21% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 31% 12% 8% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 43% 18% 12% 7% 5% 3% 2% % 55% 27% 18% 11% 8% 5% 3% % 67% 38% 27% 17% 12% 8% 4% % 77% 50% 38% 25% 18% 12% 7% % 85% 62% 50% 35% 27% 18% 11% % 90% 73% 62% 48% 38% 27% 17% % 94% 82% 73% 60% 50% 38% 25% % 96% 88% 82% 71% 62% 50% 35% % 98% 92% 88% 80% 73% 62% 48% % 99% 95% 92% 87% 82% 73% 60% % 99% 97% 95% 92% 88% 82% 71% % 99% 98% 97% 95% 92% 88% 80% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 95% 92% 87% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% 92% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 27%. 30
31 MATH - Prior Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 7% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 13% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 20% 9% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% % 29% 14% 4% 3% 1% 1% 0% % 40% 21% 7% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 52% 31% 11% 7% 4% 2% 1% % 65% 43% 17% 11% 6% 3% 2% % 75% 55% 25% 17% 9% 5% 3% % 83% 67% 35% 25% 14% 8% 5% % 89% 77% 48% 35% 21% 12% 8% % 93% 85% 60% 48% 31% 18% 12% % 96% 90% 71% 60% 43% 27% 18% % 97% 94% 80% 71% 55% 38% 27% % 98% 96% 87% 80% 67% 50% 38% % 99% 98% 92% 87% 77% 62% 50% % 99% 99% 95% 92% 85% 73% 62% % 100% 99% 97% 95% 90% 82% 73% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 94% 88% 82% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 96% 92% 88% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 95% 92% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 11%. 31
32 READING - Prior Season ( ) 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 7% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 12% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 18% 7% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% % 27% 11% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 38% 17% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1% % 50% 25% 15% 11% 6% 4% 2% % 62% 35% 23% 17% 10% 6% 4% % 73% 48% 33% 25% 15% 10% 6% % 82% 60% 45% 35% 23% 15% 10% % 88% 71% 57% 48% 33% 23% 15% % 92% 80% 69% 60% 45% 33% 23% % 95% 87% 79% 71% 57% 45% 33% % 97% 92% 86% 80% 69% 57% 45% % 98% 95% 91% 87% 79% 69% 57% % 99% 97% 94% 92% 86% 79% 69% % 99% 98% 96% 95% 91% 86% 79% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 94% 91% 86% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 94% 91% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 94% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 23%. 32
33 MATH - Prior Season ( ) 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 12% 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 18% 8% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 27% 13% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 38% 20% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 50% 29% 10% 6% 3% 2% 1% % 62% 40% 15% 10% 5% 3% 1% % 73% 52% 23% 15% 8% 4% 2% % 82% 65% 33% 23% 12% 7% 4% % 88% 75% 45% 33% 18% 11% 6% % 92% 83% 57% 45% 27% 17% 10% % 95% 89% 69% 57% 38% 25% 15% % 97% 93% 79% 69% 50% 35% 23% % 98% 96% 86% 79% 62% 48% 33% % 99% 97% 91% 86% 73% 60% 45% % 99% 98% 94% 91% 82% 71% 57% % 100% 99% 96% 94% 88% 80% 69% % 100% 99% 98% 96% 92% 87% 79% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 95% 92% 86% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 95% 91% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% 94% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 10%. 33
34 READING - Prior Season ( ) 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 7% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 12% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% % 18% 7% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 27% 11% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 38% 17% 10% 6% 4% 2% 1% % 50% 25% 15% 9% 6% 4% 2% % 62% 35% 23% 14% 10% 6% 3% % 73% 48% 33% 21% 15% 10% 5% % 82% 60% 45% 31% 23% 15% 8% % 88% 71% 57% 43% 33% 23% 13% % 92% 80% 69% 55% 45% 33% 20% % 95% 87% 79% 67% 57% 45% 29% % 97% 92% 86% 77% 69% 57% 40% % 98% 95% 91% 85% 79% 69% 52% % 99% 97% 94% 90% 86% 79% 65% % 99% 98% 96% 94% 91% 86% 75% % 100% 99% 98% 96% 94% 91% 83% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 94% 89% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 93% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% taken during that prior (fall) meeting the AMO is 23%. 34
35 TABLE 7 CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS BETWEEN MAP AND STATE TEST FOR EACH GRADE AND TEST SUBJECT Grade Math Correlation Pearson's r Reading Correlation Pearson's r * Note: Correlations range from 0 (indicating no correlation between the state test score and the test score) to 1 (indicating complete correlation between the state test score and the test score). 35
36 TABLE 8 PERCENTAGE OF STUDENTS WHOSE PASS STATUS WAS ACCURATELY PREDICTED BY THEIR MAP PERFORMANCE USING REPORTED CUT ORES Grade Mathematics Sample Size MAP Accurately Predicted State Performance MAP Underestimated State Performance MAP Overestimated State Performance % 8.9% 9.0% % 7.5% 7.6% % 7.1% 7.3% % 7.0% 6.6% % 6.8% 8.0% % 6.2% 6.1% % 7.3% 6.6% Reading % 8.9% 8.9% % 8.6% 9.8% % 8.3% 9.4% % 8.0% 10.0% % 8.5% 9.8% % 8.0% 10.3% % 14.0% 9.1% Grade Mathematics Sample Size MAP Accurately Predicted State Performance MAP Underestimated State Performance MAP Overestimated State Performance % 8.7% 9.4% % 7.9% 7.7% % 7.8% 6.6% % 6.7% 6.8% % 7.2% 6.5% % 6.3% 5.7% % 6.7% 6.2% Reading % 8.9% 8.9% % 7.9% 10.7% % 7.7% 10.8% % 8.5% 9.8% % 8.5% 9.3% % 8.2% 9.7% % 12.7% 8.7% 36
37 Grade Mathematics Sample Size MAP Accurately Predicted State Performance MAP Underestimated State Performance MAP Overestimated State Performance % 8.5% 9.5% % 7.9% 7.4% % 7.3% 6.9% % 6.7% 7.3% % 7.3% 6.3% % 6.3% 5.6% % 6.6% 5.6% Reading % 8.0% 10.0% % 8.3% 9.7% % 8.4% 10.7% % 9.1% 9.5% % 8.5% 9.3% % 7.4% 10.1% % 12.6% 7.8% Grade Mathematics Sample Size MAP Accurately Predicted State Performance MAP Underestimated State Performance MAP Overestimated State Performance % 8.3% 9.4% % 7.8% 7.6% % 7.0% 7.0% % 6.4% 7.3% % 6.6% 6.2% % 6.4% 5.3% % 5.5% 6.4% Reading % 8.2% 9.4% % 8.3% 9.7% % 8.4% 10.7% % 9.1% 9.5% % 7.9% 10.7% % 7.4% 10.1% % 12.0% 7.6% 37
38 Grade Mathematics Sample Size MAP Accurately Predicted State Performance MAP Underestimated State Performance MAP Overestimated State Performance % 7.6% 9.1% % 7.5% 7.8% % 6.7% 7.2% % 6.6% 7.1% % 6.0% 6.2% % 6.1% 5.1% % 5.4% 6.0% Reading % 7.7% 10.7% % 9.3% 9.4% % 8.9% 10.3% % 7.9% 10.5% % 8.0% 10.4% % 7.7% 9.6% % 10.9% 7.8% Grade Mathematics Sample Size MAP Accurately Predicted State Performance MAP Underestimated State Performance MAP Overestimated State Performance % 7.8% 7.8% % 7.0% 7.8% % 7.7% 6.4% % 6.4% 6.9% % 5.9% 6.3% % 5.9% 4.6% % 5.1% 5.2% Reading % 7.8% 10.0% % 7.8% 10.2% % 9.1% 10.0% % 7.9% 10.5% % 7.8% 10.0% % 7.9% 8.5% % 10.3% 7.7% 38
39 Grade Mathematics Sample Size MAP Accurately Predicted State Performance MAP Underestimated State Performance MAP Overestimated State Performance % 6.5% 7.4% % 6.9% 8.0% % 6.8% 6.3% % 6.3% 6.1% % 6.5% 4.9% % 5.8% 4.3% % 4.2% 5.1% Reading % 7.8% 10.0% % 7.8% 10.2% % 9.1% 10.0% % 7.5% 9.8% % 7.8% 10.0% % 7.9% 8.5% % 7.8% 6.6% * Note: The third column of this table shows the percentage of students whose Pass/NotPass status was predicted accurately when their state test score was linked to their MAP score based on this linking study. The fourth column shows the percentage of students whose MAP score predicted they would not pass the state benchmark but they did pass. The last column shows the percentage of students whose MAP score predicted they would pass the state benchmark but they did not pass. Due to rounding, percentages may not add to 100%. 39
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