Myanmar Energy Master Plan

Transcription

1 Myanmar Energy Master Plan Chong Chi Nai, Director Asian Development Bank 24 February 2015

2 Contents Project Scope and Progress Myanmar Energy Model Demand Projection Supply Strategy (preliminary) Key Considerations Next Steps

3 Project Scope and Progress Prepare a 20-year Myanmar Energy Master Plan (EMP) for Myanmar, including: Energy surveys and data collection (completed) Energy balances (completed) Energy demand forecast (completed) Energy resource assessments & supply options (ongoing) Investment requirements and financing modality (ongoing) Institutional arrangements including procedures for monitoring energy master plan implementation & updating the plans (ongoing) Build capacity of National Energy Management Committee (NEMC) in energy planning 3

4 The Energy Master Plan supports the country s long-term primary energy development plan Energy needs for economic growth Affordable universal access Sustainable and reliable energy supply 20 Year National Development Plan

5 Myanmar Energy Sector Model 5

6 Myanmar Energy Flow Diagram (2012/13) PRIMARY SECTOR SECONDARY SECTOR FINAL CONSUMPTION Crude Production Oil: 0.82 Mtoe Oil: 0.14 Mtoe Oil: 0.71 Mtoe Crude Exports Refineries Oil: 0.02 Mtoe Refinery Losses Petr. Prods.: 0.65 Mtoe Total Supply of Petroleum Products Petr. Prods.: 0.47 Mtoe Coal: 0.18 Mtoe Gas: 0.34 Mtoe Elec: 0.31 Mtoe Industry Stock Petr. Prods.: 0.04 Mtoe Changes Oil: 0.03 Mtoe Bunkers & Stocks Petr. Prods.: 0.89 Mtoe Gas: 0.14 Mtoe Transport Petroleum Product Petr. Prods.: 1.40 Mtoe Imports Coal: 0.02 Mtoe Coal Exports Petr. Prods.: 0.08 Mtoe Petr. Prods.: 0.09 Mtoe Agriculture Domestic Coal: 0.49 Mtoe Coal: 0.47 Mtoe Coal Coal: 0.19 Mtoe Petr. Prods.: 0.50 Mtoe Coal Imports Coal: 0.01 Mtoe Gas: 9.67 Mtoe Gas: 2.18 Mtoe Hydro Production Hydro: 0.67 Mtoe Gas: 1.29 Mtoe Electricity Elec: 0.93 Mtoe Elec: 0.71 Mtoe Elec: 0.02 Mtoe Gas: 0.38 Mtoe Other Offshore Gas Production Gas: 0.02 Mtoe Gas to Liquid Elec: 0.02 Mtoe Own Use Elec: 0.21 Mtoe Elec: 0.14 Mtoe Commercial Onshore Gas Production Gas: 0.50 Mtoe Gas: 0.15 Mtoe Gas: 0.34 Mtoe Gas: 0.38 Mtoe Transmission and Distribution Losses Coal: 0.10 Mtoe Elec: 0.23 Mtoe Residential Statistical Difference Gas: 8.14 Mtoe Gas Exports Biomass: Mtoe Biomass Data sources: consultant s estimate based on surveys & data collection

7 Key Planning Assumptions 1. Compound annual GDP growth rate of 7.1% 2. An increase in food production from 3.7 to 5.2 tons per hectare; 3. Electrification ratio to rise from 31% to 87% 4. An expected growth in passenger and freight services demand of 3.7% and 3.5% respectively 5. Targeting to increase rural household average illumination from 40 lux to 160 lux by Total firewood consumption is maintained at around 17 million tons per annum despite a growing population

8 Energy Demand Projection by Sector CAGR (2012 to 2030) 2.9 %

9 Energy Demand Projection by Sector Sector 2012 Consumption (MTOE) 2030 Projection (MTOE) Growth Rate Residential Industrial Transport Commercial Agriculture Others 8.39 (66.2%) 9.07 (42.3%) 0.4% 0.70 (5.5%) 5.70 (26.6%) 11.6% 1.44 (11.4%) 3.07 (14.3%) 4.3% 1.59 (12.5%) 2.25 (10.5%) 1.9% 0.25 (2.0%) 0.63 (2.9%) 5.0% 0.31 (2.4%) 0.7 (3.3%) 4.6% TOTAL 12.7 (100%) 21.4 (100%) 2.9%

10 Energy Demand Projection by Energy Forms Energy Form 2012 Consumption (MTOE) 2030 Projection (MTOE) Biomass Growth Rate 8.82 (69.6%) 8.58 (40.1%) -0.2% Oil Natural Gas 1.71 (13.5%) 3.93 (18.3%) 4.6% 1.37 (10.8%) 4.07 (19.0%) 6.1% Electricity Coal 0.70 (5.5%) 4.29 (20.0%) 10.1% 0.07 (0.6%) 0.55 (2.6%) 11.1% TOTAL 12.7 (100%) 21.4 (100%) 2.9%

11 Key Supply Strategy (Preliminary) Build refinery capacity at 50,000 bpd to maximize economic efficiency of refinery (at least 75% of total petroleum product demand will be met through local refinery operation) Use national gas to maximize economic value of natural gas for the country Replace biomass with modern commercial energy and reduce its share from 70% to 40% in 2030 (one of national energy policy objectives) Promote use of renewable energy for electricity generation and for liquid fuel supply (biofuel 10%) Promote optimal generation expansion by 2030

12 Key Considerations 1. High-level policy decision on strategic use of natural gas for maximum benefit of the country 2. Competition for private sector investment a) Tariffs must be cost-reflective to ensure adequate returns to investment b) The law must protect private assets c) There must be transparency in procurement and bidding process 3. Environment and social safeguard standards a) Procedures and guidelines must be in place b) A capability to monitor and report compliance needs to be develop in a transparent manner 4. Public consultation and social acceptance of large hydropower schemes

13 Next Steps Consultation meetings/workshops With NEMC to seek high-level policy guidance With key line ministries to discuss their energy supply options Capacity building for NEMC and other key ministries energy data collection, processing and compiling, analysis and statistical reporting energy demand forecasting, energy supply modelling, and energy planning energy sector development strategy and monitoring and evaluation Completion of the rest EMP study supply options and supply strategy investment requirements and financing modality institutional arrangements