The OECD Territorial Review of Småland-Blekinge

Transcription

1 The OECD Territorial Review of Småland-Blekinge Carlos Icaza Lara and William Tompson Regional Development Policy Division Directorate for Public Governance and Territorial Development OECD Växjö, 1 April 2011

2 Part I HOW WE WORK 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 2

3 OECD Territorial Reviews: a series of case studies of regional policy Among 34 member countries: 16 National Reviews (+2 ongoing) 20 Metropolitan Reviews (+1 ongoing) & 1 National Urban Policy Review (+1 ongoing) 13 Rural Reviews 4 Regional Reviews (+2 ongoing) 5 Regional Innovation Reviews Sweden has been involved in: + 2 ongoing Regional Reviews: Skåne Småland-Blekinge 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 3

4 Aims of the review The review aims to provide policymakers and other stakeholders in the four counties with a rigorous and systematic analysis of socio-economic trends across the four counties, with particular emphasis on entrepreneurship and innovation; an assessment of regional policies on policies to assist the Småland-Blekinge region in developing their comparative advantages and tapping unexploited opportunities; and an analysis of the multi-level governance challenges of Småland-Blekinge in the context of the recent regionalisation process in Sweden. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 4

5 (1) A quantitative analysis based on the OECD Regional Database International benchmarking with around 40 indicators on more than 2000 regions An interactive graphical tool: OECD explorer 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 5

6 (2) A policy analysis focusing on complementary objectives Regions 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 6

7 (3) A multi-level governance analysis 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 7

8 Forthcoming in Småland-Blekinge Questionnaire Completed early March First mission 28 March-1 April Second mission Late June First draft for factchecking OECD- Counties: Late Sept Counties-OECD: 2 weeks later Discussion of revised draft with the authorities in the counties Early November Approval of report by OECD member countries Late November/ Early December 2011 Official publication & launching event Total process: 12 months 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 8

9 Impact & use of Territorial Reviews: some examples Key input for the new National Strategy of Regional Development Basis for a reform of the Constitution through a law on regional government and administration (October 2009) Roadmap for the agenda of the newly created Montreal Metropolitan Community 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 9

10 Part II HOW WE THINK ABOUT REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 10

11 Regional Contributions to Aggregate Growth 5% 4% Contribution tooecd growth 3% 2% 1% y = x % TL2 regions Source: Calculations based on the OECD Regional Database.. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 11

12 Over time, the shape of the distribution is growing more skewed. 6% 95_98 98_01 01_04 04_07 5% Contribution tooecd growth 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% TL2 regions 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 12

13 Contributions to growth of real GDP per capita Swedish Counties, April 2011 Växjö Seminar 13

14 Agglomeration tends to be associated with and higher value added, productivity and employment Higher GDP per capita Higher Productivity Higher Employment. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 14

15 but not necessarily faster growth Only 45% of metro--regions grow faster than the national average. Metro-regions appear to have entered in a process of convergence II Atlanta San Francisco Washington I Initial GDP per worker in PPP III Detroit San Diego Phoenix Osaka Berlin Prague Dublin Monterrey Busan Budapest Ankara Istanbul Deagu Naples Izmir Puebla Krakow -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% signs of inefficiencies appear in metro-regions above 7.3 million inhabitants Average annual growth rates in GDP per capita Warsaw IV 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 15

16 There is no single/unique path to growth A large number of urban regions grow faster than the average rural region and many rural regions grow faster than the urban average. Opportunities for growth exist in all types of regions. Rural not synonymous with decline. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 16

17 How regions grow: model results Key finding: The most important growth drivers are endogenous to the region. Human capital and innovation positively influence regional growth. Infrastructure influences growth only when human capital and innovation are present. By itself it does not impact growth. Agglomeration influences growth but is not necessary or sufficient. Distance to markets has a positive impact to growth. Regions in periphery growing faster. Possible measurement bias? (i) No travel time and transportation networks and (ii) size of regions. Accessibility influences growth, conditional on innovation, infrastructure, human capital and agglomeration. The relative weight of these different factors depends, inter alia, on the level of development of the region. These findings, in turn, have implications for governance. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 17

18 What is the Policy Message? Not as clear as it seems (or as policy-makers might like!): The foregoing omits important interaction effects. Many policy interventions can have unintended effects if undertaken in isolation. However, if this implies a constraint in terms of policy coherence, it also points to opportunities arising from policy complementarities. In short: no simple messages or solutions. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 18

19 The policy headache: isolated sectoral action may have unintended outcomes. Leaking by linking Infrastructure provision Problem: lack of connectivity Persistence of inequality 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 19

20 The policy headache: isolated targeting of investments may have unintended outcomes. Brain drain with labour mobility Human capital formation Policy responses Persistence of inequality 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 20

21 Towards a Multidimensional Response Regional growth and convergence Many countries are reforming in this direction, but implementation is still difficult. Innovation At the regional scale Business environment Human capital formation Infrastructure provision Policy responses 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 21

22 To sum up OECD analysis points to a few broad lessons for policy: Provide infrastructure as part of an integrated regional approach. Invest in human capital. Emphasise innovation and R&D. Focus on integrated regional policies. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 22

23 Implementing regional development policies: Getting governance right Problems are not defined or shaped like public departments and agencies => policy-making presents risks of gaps. Key question: how to integrate public authorities around the problems, solutions and outcomes that citizens and firms needed under budgetary constraints? A match between top-down and bottom-up information and initiative is critical. The answer requires a diagnosis and incentives for coordination of public administration actions in order to achieve coherent policy-making (implementing as well as designing future policies). => No one size fits-all answer. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 23

24 Mind the Gaps : a Tool for a Diagnosis Administrative gap Mismatch between functional areas and administrative boundaries => Need for instruments for reaching effective size Information gap Policy gap Capacity gap Funding gap Asymmetries of information (quantity, quality, type) between different stakeholders, either voluntary or not => Need for instruments for revealing & sharing information Sectoral fragmentation across ministries and agencies => Need for mechanisms to create multidimensional/systemic approaches, and to exercise political leadership and commitment. Insufficient scientific, technical, infrastructural capacity of local actors => Need for instruments to build capacity Unstable or insufficient revenues undermining effective implementation of responsibilities at subnational level or for crossing policies => Need for shared financing mechanisms Objective gap Different rationalities creating obstacles for adopting convergent targets => Need for instruments to align objectives Accountability gap Difficulty to ensure the transparency of practices across the different constituencies => Need for institutional quality instruments 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 24

25 Contracts Bridge the coordination and capacity gaps France, Italy, European Union, Canada Performance Measurement & Transparent evaluation Grants, co-funding agreements Strategic planning requirements, Multiannual budget Inter-municipal coordination Inter-sectoral collaboration Agencies Experimentation policies Legal mechanisms and standard settings Citizens participation Private sector participation Institutional capacity indicators Norway, United Kingdom, United States All countries: general purpose grants v. earmarked, equalisation mechanisms Along with investment contracts Mergers (Denmark, Japan) v. inter-municipal cooperation (Spain, France, Brazil etc.) Finland, France One ministry v. interministerial mechanisms United Kingdom, Canada, Chile Sweden, United States, Finland All countries, but more or less implemented A question of degree From strategy design to vested interest Italy for sub-national level 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 25

26 Sub-national Governance: Getting Institutions Right No one-size fits all solution, but a strong case for local empowerment: The foregoing points to the need for differentiated development strategies for regions. There is a need to detect and exploit existing or potential niches for the development of new activities. To generate such strategies, mechanisms and incentives are needed to address information gaps to prompt agents to reveal knowledge. This is likely to be local knowledge. In many OECD countries, the municipal/central vertical governance gap is significant: the centre faces information gaps and the municipalities confront capacity gaps. Intermediate bodies credibility depends on their capacity. The actual division of labour is key: where spillovers are likely to extend beyond regions/localities, the case for centralisation is stronger (e.g. primary/secondary education). 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 26