Strong Balance Sheet, sustainable growth business model

Transcription

1 BANK PEKAO SA Strong Balance Sheet, sustainable growth business model Luigi Lovaglio, CEO Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance CEO Conference London, October 4-5, 2011

2 Disclaimer This presentation (the Presentation ) has been prepared by Bank Polska Kasa Opieki Spółka Akcyjna ( Bank ) for the clients, shareholders and financial analysts. This presentation should not be treated as an offer or invitation to purchase any securities or financial instruments or as an advice or recommendation in respect to such securities or financial instruments. This presentation may include forward looking statements, Bank s outlook for the future, future plans and strategies or anticipated events that are not historical facts. Since these statements are based on assumptions, expectations, projections and provisional data about future events, the content is inherently uncertain. Factors that could cause or contribute to differences in current expectations include, but are not limited to: (i) general economic conditions, among which the economic conditions of the business areas and the markets in which Bank and its subsidiaries operate, (ii) the performance of financial markets (iii) changes in laws or regulations and (iv) general competitive conditions locally, regionally, nationally and/or internationally. Bank does not undertake any obligation to update or publicly release any revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein. Bank, nor any of its representatives shall not be responsible for any loss or damage it may arise from the use of this Presentation or of any information contained herein or otherwise arising in connection to this Presentation. This presentation is not for the distribution, in or into countries where the public dissemination of the information contained herein may be restricted or prohibited by law. 2

3 Agenda Polish macroeconomic environment profile Performance highlights Current challenges and opportunities 3

4 Poland resilient growth thanks to well balanced GDP structure and limited dependence on EU growth GDP growth (%) * Contribution to GDP growth (%) 9 9,0 Poland UE 27 CEE 6 Export, net Inventory changes 4,0 3 Investments -1,0 0 Private Consumption -6, F 2012F 2013F GDP (% y/y, real) Export / GDP (%) ** Foreign direct investments (EUR bn.) 80% 74% 72% 67% 25 60% 40% 57% 55% 51% 43% 37% 35% 31% ,3 6,4 4,4 4,1 10,2 8,3 15,7 17,2 10,1 9,9 7, % 0 SK HU CZ LT ES SL BG LV PL RO P 2012P Good GDP mix: big domestic market and Germany lead export One of the lowest shares of export/gdp in the region Competitive in EU with still cheap labour costs (average salary at 35% of Germany) 4 * : IMF Forecasts ** Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Poland, Romania

5 Relatively low public debt and budget deficit in line with EU average Public Debt to GDP and Public Deficit to GDP (2010)* 15% Deficit / GDP UK 10% Spain Portugal Greece Romania Poland EU 27 France 5% Bulgaria CZK Hung Germany Belgium Italy Lux. Sweden Debt / GDP 0% 0% 50% 100% 150% Polish public debt to GDP and budget deficit mix close to EU average Public debt strongly impacted by 1999 pension fund reform, which increased the ratio by 14 p.p. The path of deficit reduction will be clear after October parliamentary elections * Source: Eurostat 5

6 Relatively low external funding Gross external debt to GDP ratio in EU10 in 2009 and 2010 (%) * Structure of gross external debt to GDP ratio in 2010 (%) Relatively low dependence on external funding Significant share of external funding in the form of loans within international capital groups * Source: Central Banks, World Bank staff calculations 6

7 Agenda Polish macroeconomic environment profile Performance highlights Current challenges and opportunities 7

8 Who we are IH 11 Ranking EUR (1) RETAIL CLIENTS 4.5m 2 CORPORATE & SME CLIENTS 270ths. 1 ASSETS 32.9 bl 2 LOANS (2) 21.8 bl 2 Retail PLN loans (5) 6.1 bl 2 Corporate loans 13.3 bl DEPOSITS (2) 24.4 bl 2 Position of (4) Retail deposits 11.5 bl 2 Corporate deposits 12.9 bl <=3 N of branches IMPORT / EXPORT 21%/26% 1 MUTUAL FUNDS 4.4 bl 1 SHARE OF BANKING PROFIT (6) 18.3% 2 ROE 10% CAR Core Tier I C/I 13.1% 19.1% 18.4% 48.4% 8 (1) 1Euro = 3,9866 PLN, NBP avg. as at 30/06/11 (2) Excluding Ukraine loan exposure following reclassification of assets for disposal (3) As at June 29th, 2011 (4) As at June 30, Commercial banks only excluding agencies (5) Mortgage PLN, Cash (6) Non-consolidated numbers

9 Funding and capital base stronger than s CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO 18,4% 13,5% L/D RATIO 87% 115% EQUITY / TOTAL ASSET 15,2% 9,5% 43,8 FX MORTGAGES (EUR bn.) 1,4 9 Data for June 2011 or IH 2011 data based on KNF data, L/D ratio based on NBP data

10 Strong cost efficiency and risk management performance vs. COST OF RISK 0,7% 1,0% OPERATING PROFIT / PROVISIONS 7,2 X 3,5 X PROVISION COVERAGE RATIO 74,4% 62,2% COST / INCOME RATIO 48,4% 51,0% COST / INCOME RATIO (RISK ADJUSTED) 52,0% 60,0% 10 Data for June 2011 or IH 2011 Source: data based on KNF data, provisions data for the sector based on NBP, coverage ratio for the sector based on peers

11 Consistency in strategy resulted in strength recognized at Pan-European level STRESS TEST CORE TIER 1 (%) Largest Polish banks Top score European banks (avg) Biggest European banks (avg) BZWBK ING PKO BP Bank Millenium BRE Bank Kredyt Bank Top score EU avg Biggest EU avg 11

12 keeping strong commitment toward all stakeholders resulting in Leadership in reputation CUSTOMERS SATISFACTION (TRIM*M INDEX) REPUTATION INDEX +2 pts +2 pts PEKAO Reputation Track Pulse (May) ENGAGEMENT INDEX - PEOPLE SURVEY +2 pts 12 Rep Track Pulse scale Excellent/Top Tier (above 80) Strong/Robust (70 79) Average/Moderate (60 69) Weak/Vulnerable (40 59) Poor/Lowest Tier (below 40)

13 and consistent high dividend policy DIVIDEND PAY OUT (%) 81% 79% 86% 87% 74% Total pay out 70% ~9,6 bn PLN ~73% avg (*) 31% % INCREASE DIVIDENDS PER SHARE (PLN) INCREASE BOOK VALUE PER SHARE (PLN) +134,5% +10,3% 6,8 69,7 76,9 2, * Excluding 2008

14 Agenda Polish macroeconomic environment profile Performance highlights Current challenges and opportunities 14

15 Double digit growth in 2011 NET PROFIT (PLN mil.) OPERATING PROFIT (PLN mil.) +11,5% +13,2% H 10 1H 11 1H 10 1H Presentation includes operations of Open Joint Stock Company UniCredit Bank on Ukraine presented in financial statements as assets held for sale

16 Double digit growth in key Retail and Corporate lending RETAIL (PLN mil.) CORPORATE (PLN mil.) +14,0% +4,7% ,4% ,4% Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 10 Jun 11 Unicredit Bank Ukraine 467 Unicredit 343 Bank Ukraine Mortgage PLN, Cash Other Strategic products MID & SME Other* Strategic products 16 (*) Including non quoted debt securities and securities issued by local governments classified as AFS

17 supported by very strong sales of consumer loans and mortgages in PLN PLN MORTGAGE LOANS SALE (PLN mil.) +70% CASH LOANS SALE (PLN mil.) +28% H 10 1H 11 1H 10 1H 11 17

18 with positive contribution coming from Public PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCING, (PLN mil.) +81% Jun 10 Jun 11 18

19 2 2 Positive development on Retail savings, with Corporate deposits kept at a very high level RETAIL (PLN mil.) CORPORATE (PLN mil.) PRELIMINARY +2,4% -5,0% ,0% % Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 10 Jun 11 Unicredit Unicredit Bank Ukraine Bank Ukraine Retail Deposits MF Commercial Deposits + REPO + SBB Public sector 19

20 Profitability leader in the market RETURN ON MINIMUM EQUITY * 25% IH '10 IH '11 NET PROFIT / RWA 20% 19,2% 19,1% 17,7% 4% IH '10 IH '11 15% 13,4% 3% 2,6% 2,9% 10% 2% 1,6% 2,1% ROA 3% IH '10 IH '11 1% 2% 1,9% 2,1% 1,5% 1,1% 1% 0% 20 : 9 biggest listed Polish bank excluding * Assuming CAR = 10%

21 Sustainable, high quality revenues on core business NII / RWA 6% IH '10 IH '11 4,5% 4,7% 4,2% 4,4% 4% OPERATING INCOME / RWA 2% 10% IH '10 IH '11 F&C / RWA 4% IH '10 IH '11 8% 6% 7,7% 7,9% 7,1% 7,1% 3% 2% 2,5% 2,6% 2,2% 2,1% 1% 4% OTHER OPERATING INCOME / RWA 1,2% IH '10 IH '11 0,6% 0,8% 0,7% 0,7% 0,6% 0,0% 21 : 9 biggest listed Polish banks excluding

22 20, 0% 10, 0% 0, 0% 10, 0% 5, 0% 0, 0% 12, 00% 8, 00% 4, 00% 0, 00% Accelerating compared with the market PLN MORTGAGE LOANS SALE (market share) CASH LOANS SALE (market share) * +4.7pp +2.8pp 16,8% 12,1% 6,2% 9,0% IH 10 IH 11 IH 10 IH 11 F&C (IH 2011 Y/Y) GROSS OPERATING PROFIT (IH 2011 Y/Y) 9,9% 8,7% 7,0% 2,4% ** ** 22 * Based on BIK and press data ** : 9 biggest listed Polish banks excluding

23 Agenda Polish macroeconomic environment profile Performance highlights Current challenges and opportunities 23

24 Going forward CURRENT CHALLENGES PEKAO APPROACH Decreasing loans spread On-going deposit war Zero commissions trend Regulatory capital and liquidity requirements Keep faster-than-market delivering in core areas ( Business as usual, no CHF issue ) Leveraging on past years early mover in Corporate positioning Scale, strong Retail customer base and advisorybased business model Comfort to mid / long term planning 24