RUSSIA, UKRAINE AND EUROPE

Transcription

1 RUSSIA, UKRAINE AND EUROPE by Sergei Naumoff North America Debate Academy, 2015

2 Who am I? Introduction Teach Comparative Public Policy, Ph.D. in Political Science Coach and teach debate since 1998, mostly WSDC What am I Going to Tell You? Key drivers behind the Russia s government policy in Eastern Europe? EU and US sanctions against Russia over Ukraine crisis: do they work? Is Crimea case similar to Kosovo? Two-state approach as a solution

3 Motions on Russia-Ukraine Birmingham IV, Birmingham, England, December 20-22, 2013 THB the European Union should lower the entry requirements and fast-track accession procedures for the Ukraine and other nations in the Caucasus Helsinki Mini, Helsinki, Finland, March 1, 2014 TH as Russia supports partitioning Ukraine Vienna IV, Vienna, Austria, March 7-9, 2014 THBT the US and the EU should support a Russian annexation of Crimea in exchange for an otherwise independent Ukraine

4 Motions on Russia-Ukraine Earlsfort Open, Dublin, Ireland, July 19-20, 2014 THBT The European Union Should Immediately And Aggressively Accelerate The Accession of Ukraine NCH International Relations Open, London, England, July 27, 2014 Final: THBT NATO should militarily intervene to assist the Ukrainian government in suppressing the separatist rebels in the eastern province

5 Motions on Russia-Ukraine Beihang World Debate Academy July 2015 THBT economic sanctions on Russia relating to the situation in Ukraine are counterproductive. WUDC Chennai 2014 Round 8: THBT NATO should unconditionally offer membership to the states of the former Soviet Union, excluding Russia

6 Zbigniew Brzezinski, 1997 Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia. Brzezinski Z The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives

7 Robert Kagan s Power and Weakness, 2002

8 History Russia-EU 1994/ Cooperation and Partnership Agreement as framework for political, economic and cultural relationships 2008 negotiations on new agreement started 2008 Kosovo Independence and Russian- Georgian war 2009 gas crisis/war Russia stopped to supply natural gas to Ukraine

9 History Russia-EU November 2013 Ukraine refuses to sign an Association Agreement with the EU - Then-President Victor Yanukovich suspended preparations - Was he pro-russian? - Limited protests in Euromaidan - February 2014 Revolution of dignity and Yanukovich s escape - March 2014, Annexation of Crimea by Russian polite green men

10 Is Crimea Different From Scotland Or Kosovo? Western argumentation: Scotland: legally viable bodies on both sides approved of the referendum in tandem. Yes or no: Remain a part of the United Kingdom or break off. Kosovo: Ethnic-Albanians = 88 percent of Kosovo's population. Recognized as an independent country by 108 UN member states. No military pressure or a government overthrow. Kosovo and Scotland separatists have both sought independence, rather than union with another state

11 Is Crimea Different From Scotland Or Kosovo? Western argumentation: Crimea: The local parliament was taken over by heavily armed soldiers. 15,000 Russian soldiers have occupied Crimea since February No any Ukrainian threats or attacks on the Russian population Referendum: joining with Russia or becoming a de facto independent state. No status quo option.

12 Is Crimea Different From Scotland Or Kosovo? utin s argumentation: Crimea a part of Russia since 1783 and was transferred to Ukraine in 1954 by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. Kosovo and Crimea remain significant for the Serb and Russian national mythology Sevastopol - the capital city of Crimea - was home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet Ethnic Russians in Crimea (60-65%) face the threat of persecution from Ukraine's ethnic- Ukrainian majority

13 Is Crimea Different From Scotland Or Kosovo? utin s argumentation: Kosovo s independence not because of votes but because NATO s large scale bombing campaign to secure its independence same as Russian "polite green men". A large part of the Crimean population wanted independence from the regime change government that came to power in a Coup led by armed fascists or the far-right parties. The US established a big military base, Camp Bondsteel, on Kosovo's territory

14 Is Crimea Different From Scotland Or Kosovo? ho is right? Little contextual difference between Kosovo's and Crimea's secession claims The role of foreign powers is very similar. NATO's military intervention, like Russia's, was not authorized by the UN Security Council No consent of the parent state (as in the South Sudan case). US took action after giving diplomacy numerous chances. Russia, on the other hand, has chosen to occupy first and negotiate later.

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17 Hybrid war in Donbass - West s proxy war with Russia? - In Donbass: Rebels? Insurgents? Terrorists - Kremlin position: No Russian regular armed forces are fighting with the rebels - a civil war between Ukraine and people who reject the new Kiev government. - Many Russian volunteers have joined the rebels, including vacationing soldiers.

18 Hybrid war in Donbass - nonmilitary methods to achieve political and strategic goals. - fomenting popular protests, - covert military measures - deploying special operations forces, often under the guise of peacekeeping or crisis management - a coordinated information-support campaign

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20 Alternative to sanctions - The EU has signed free trade agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia - The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) established in 2014 as an alternative integration project to the EU

21 EEU - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan - Armenia. - Kyrgyzstan undergoing ratification procedures - Tajikistan is considering membership. - Vietnam (May 2015) and India (June 2015) - signed a free trade agreement with the EEU - Israel, New Zealand, Tunisia, Turkey on their way to sign

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24 Sanctions - Diplomatic measures for Russia s isolation - Asset freezes and visa bans - Restrictions for Crimea - Economic sanctions trade, exports, imports Pros and cons? Consequences? Greece, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia ambiguous position

25 Sanctions - 1 stage against elites and high-rank officials only - 2 stage punish Russians so much that they turn against Putin - Russian currency is dropped to half its value - Exclusion from G8 - Oil priced have dropped by OPEC - Turned many Russian against the US/EU

26 Do sanctions work? - The U.S. sanctions against Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Syria and North Korea human rights and violations to proliferation support for terrorism. - European Union targets Iran, Russia and Zimbabwe.

27 Do sanctions work? - Sanctions ARE effective at: hurting national economies crippling nations abilities to pursue some of their goals - Sanctions ARE NOT effective at: promoting regime change forcing Putin, Kim John Il, Castro out stopping them being more aggressive and stoking nationalism

28 Do sanctions work? - North Korea case: China as a patron - Cuba: 90 miles from Florida, So what? Not a serious national security threat anymore. The Castros still rule - Iran: currency decline by more than 2/3, economic turmoil because of oil prices and sanctions in Russia: difficult to digest Crimea and Eastern Ukraine and a serious crimp in massive military modernization program.

29 Sanctions against Russia - Sanctions efficiency depend on oil prices $60-70/barrel a lot of relief $30-50 hard, but acceptable Below $30 economic default - Lose 9 million Russian barrels a day? Back to 1973! - Is EU strategy wise? - Is it pushing Russia to Chinese arms? - Will not trade great-power status for comfort, prosperity

30 Main controversies in Ukraine - Was Revolution of Dignity imported and sponsored by U.S./EU? - Why current President Petro Poroshenko has assets in Russia? - Why no significant reform was done since May 2014? (except for cosmetic police one) - Why nobody fights the systematic corruption in main areas? - Will Maidan 3.0 be possible in 2016?

31 Casualties of the Ukrainian crisis (February 2014 July 2015) 1. Euromaidan protests in Kiev protesters and 18 police officers 2. Crimean crisis 6 people WARFARE in EASTERN UKRAINE TOTAL 9,000-10,000 killed Ukrainian civilians 3,684 killed Military of Ukraine 2,515 / 3,174 killed Donetsk and Lugansk militia 2,248 killed Military of Russia killed MH17 aircraft 298 foreign civilians killed

32 Two-state solution - US-led formula: "two states for two groups of people. - Used in Israeli Palestinian conflict - the Palestinians should accept a Jewish State and visa versa - Alternative to the one-state solution proposed by Minsk Agreements; binational solution (federalist arrangement) or just unitary state. - Proposal of dual citizenship - After March 2015 Netanyahu s reelection doesn t exist anymore in Israel/Palestine