Trends & Statistics 2014 Review & April/May 2015

Transcription

1 Trends & Statistics 2014 Review & April/May 2015 Insight Department VisitScotland June

2 Welcome In today s rapidly changing world, having an informed outlook is vital. The tourism and hospitality sectors are increasingly sensitive to consumer trends and economic conditions. The VisitScotland Insights Team combines consumer perspectives with industry knowledge to allow Scottish Tourism to meet the challenges of today s marketplace. Our monthly Trends and Statistics Summary is a snapshot of industry performance. It also provides a commentary on the drivers influencing consumers and business now and in the future. Insights Summary There were 1.5 million domestic overnight trips to Scotland by GB residents in the year to February 2015, 36% up on 2014 s figure. Domestic holiday trips for the year to date (February) have increased 19% on the same period in Scotland welcomed 2.7 million visits from overseas in 2014, 10% more than in International inbound tourism was buoyant during 2014 with trips up across all market regions. However, Eurozone visitors had subdued spend due to the poor exchange rate between the Euro and Sterling. Source: TNS 2

3 % Change Year-on-Year % Change Year-on-Year Tourism Performance Domestic Overnight Tourism to Scotland (GB Residents) 2014 recorded million trips, 3% up on 2013 with spend marginally down on 2013 at 2.8 billion. ***Following data validation procedures applied to the Quarter figures of the GBTS, figures for the months of November and December have been combined to maintain statistical validity*** *See appendix for further information. For the months of November and December 2014 there was an increase in overnight tourism to Scotland with a 12% increase in trips compared to the same period in However, spend is significantly down on the same period decreasing 25% on 2013 s figure. Domestic Overnight Tourism 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% With holidays down on 2013, Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFR) has driven the growth in overnight domestic trips and expenditure to Scotland in 2014, with significant increases in both volume and value in both November/December and 2014 in its entirety. International Inbound Tourism % 1 5.0% -5.0% -1 Trips Nights Spend ( m) % Change 11.5% 11.8% 10.1% Q Q % Trips Night Spend ( m) % Change 3.1% -3.1% -1.0% Jan - Dec Jan - Dec International Tourism to Scotland International Inbound Tourism In 2014 Scotland welcomed 2.7 million visits from overseas, 10% more than in New record spending levels were reported in Scotland with a total of 1.8bn spent in the area by overseas visitors representing a nominal rise of 10%. International inbound tourism was buoyant with trips up across all market regions. However, Eurozone visitors had subdued spend due to the poor exchange rate between the Euro and Sterling. North America, in particular, saw significant growth in Trips (+ 28%) and Spend (+46%) due to the strength of the US dollar against Sterling. International Travel to/from UK UK residents took 11.5 million overseas trips in the first three months of 2015 spending an estimated 6.8 billion while abroad, 1% more than during the same period last year. Looking across the first three months of 2015, UK residents took more holiday visits (11%) and visits to see friends or relatives (13%) than they did in January to March Visits by UK residents increased to all world regions in the three months to March There was a rise of 9% in visits to Europe, 7% increase to Rest of World and 2% more to North America. 3

4 % Change Year-on-Year Tourism Performance Tourism Day Visits to Scotland (GB Residents) Full year data for 2014 indicates that tourism day trips in Scotland are up 3% on the same period in 2013.Spend figures have increased 8.2% over this period, generating 5bn during The month of December recorded 10 million tourism day trips, which was comparable to the same period in However, spend increased by 8% on the same period to generate 455 million during December Scotland is recording a spend-per-trip average of 39.62, which is 5.5% up on the same period in Year to December 2014 Average Occupancy Rate % occupancy Accommodation Occupancy pp change on 2013 Hotel (Room) 70 1 BB/GH (Room) 46-3 Self-Catering 46 0 Hostel 50 3 Caravan & Camping* 42-5 RevPAR (to December 14) Tourism Day Visits 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Trips Spend ( m) % Change 2.6% 8.2% Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Confidence rates in December are high among all accommodation sectors for the long-term outlook. Confidence over a threemonth horizon with hotels, B&B s, and self-catering showing some weakness in comparison to hostels, which are confident for the coming months. Occupancy rates were generally mixed compared to last year with revenue per available room up significantly on previous years. 4

5 % Change Year-on-Year % Change Year-on-Year Tourism Performance Domestic Overnight Tourism to Scotland (GB Residents) January Domestic visitor numbers in January were above average and well above January 2014 levels, with an 86% increase in number of trips. Nights nearly doubled in comparison to the same period in 2014, whilst spend increased significantly. Domestic Overnight Tourism 14 The figures should be treated with some caution as January is traditionally a quiet month and therefore the sample size is small. Domestic overnight holiday trips saw significant growth during January 2015, with increases across nights and expenditure also. Business travel increased in trips during the period, which led to greater average spend on business trips, but fewer on individual nights. The average spend per trip for January 2015 was 247, 18% up on the same period in Trips Night Spend ( m) % Change 85.7% 98.3% 117.9% Jan Jan Domestic Overnight Tourism to Scotland (GB Residents) February There were 1.5 million overnight trips to Domestic Overnight Tourism Trips Night Spend ( m) % Change 35.5% 43.5% 61.4% Jan-Feb Jan-Feb Scotland by GB residents in the year to February 2015, 36% up on 2014 s figure. Expenditure reached 339 million, a 61% increase on the same period last year. The year-to-date average trip length by domestic GB visitors was 2.5 nights, slightly up on The average spend per trip was 228, whilst spend per night was 89. Holiday trips have increased for the year to date compared to last year with a 19% increase in trips, and a 46% increase in spend. However, trips decreased by 16% for February 2015 against the same month in The average length of stay for holiday trips is marginally up on 2014 at 2.6 nights. Figures should be considered with caution as January is traditionally a quiet month with a low sample size. Business Travel trips have increased 14% on the same period last year, whilst spend also increased by 88%. The average length of stay for business travel trips has marginally increased by around 37% to 2.1 nights, whilst spend per night has increased to 148 compared to 123 in

6 % Change Year-on-Year % Change Year-on-Year Tourism Performance Tourism Day Visits to Scotland (GB Residents) - February Cumulatively there were 16 million day visits in Scotland in the period from January to February 2015, a decrease of 7% on Expenditure over the same period contributed 525 million, a decrease of 5% against the same period during The month of February recorded 7.3 million trips, a 4% increase on the same month in 2014, whilst expenditure achieved a total of 271 million in February 2014 was 19% up on February The average spend per tourism day trip to Scotland has increased to 32.41, which is 1.71 less than the average spend for the whole of GB. -2.0% Tourism Day Visits -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% Trips Spend ( m) % Change -7.4% -4.9% Jan-Feb Jan-Feb Tourism Day Visits to Scotland (GB Residents) - March Tourism Day Visits Cumulatively there were 24 million day visits in Scotland in the period from January to March 2015, a decrease of 10% on % -6.0% -8.0% % Trips Spend ( m) % Change -9.8% -4.7% Jan-Mar 2014 Jan-Mar Expenditure over the same period contributed 878 million, a decrease of 5% against the same period during The month of March recorded 7.6 million trips, a 16% decrease on the same month in 2014, whilst expenditure achieved a total of 353 million in March 2014 was 4% down on March The average spend per tourism day trip to Scotland has increased to 36.89, which is 1.36 greater than the average spend for the whole of GB. 6

7 Tourism Performance Accommodation Occupancy February Confidence rates in February are high among all accommodation sectors for the long-term outlook. Confidence over a threemonth horizon appears to be high across the accommodation sectors leading into the summer months. Occupancy rates for February were generally low in comparison to the same period in 2015 across all sectors and regions. This may be attributed to the greater volume of VFR travel, which has been recorded throughout Year to February 2015 Average Occupancy Rate % Occupancy Pp change on 2014 Hotel (Room) BB/GH (Room) Self-Catering Hostel Caravan & Camping* N/A N/A RevPar (to Feb 15) *data collected Apr-Oct Year to March 2015 Average Occupancy Rate % Occupancy Accommodation Occupancy - March Pp change on 2014 Hotel (Room) BB/GH (Room) Self-Catering Hostel Caravan & Camping* N/A N/A RevPar (to Mar 15) *data collected Apr-Oct Confidence rates in March are high among all accommodation sectors for the long-term outlook. Confidence over a threemonth horizon appears to be high across the accommodation sectors leading into the summer months, with the exception of self-catering, which fairly mixed in their short term confidence. Occupancy rates for March were generally low in comparison to the same period in 2015 across all sectors and regions. 7

8 Tourism Trends April/May 2015 Trend Consumer Conditions Exchange Rates Weather News Tourism Industry Travel Demand Commentary Wellness tourism is becoming far more prevalent in the minds of consumers, with the advent and growth of technological awareness. The development of mental health awareness has triggered many to seek digital downtime, but not cold turkey abandonment. This trend is becoming more prevalent with younger generations, who are normally identified as early adopters, at music festivals and other events, in an attempt to reconnect while you disconnect. Wellness tourism is not only defined to digital detox practices, but to an array of activities such as spiritual retreats, yoga and boot camp holidays, and awareness of healthy eating. As life expectancy predictions rise in wealthy areas across the UK, obesity predictions are also increasing. Consumers now seek food and drink, which is not only healthy, but transparent in its dietary content. Throughout 2015, Sterling has remained strong against a number of key inbound market currencies, increasing by 2.6% to from January to April Against the Euro, Sterling has increased around 6.1% at 1.38 following its long-term trend. Reports from a number of exchange rate retailers have indicated a significant rise in consumer purchasing of Euro s over recent weeks, with many taking the opportunity to purchase the currency at its most favourable outbound rate in recent years. It is also expected that consumers are forward buying currency for pre booked holidays months in advance, which would indicate a growth in real disposable income and consumer confidence. However, figures for April indicate that the Pound has fallen against the US Dollar for the fourth month in succession, making long-haul travel more attractive for American visitors to the UK. April also began with unsettled weather at the beginning of the month, but became more settled by the introduction of a high pressure system within a few days. This system was interrupted during the middle of the month, which then followed an extended period of warm weather and high levels of sunshine across many areas of the UK, which was the warmest April since 1929 according to reports by the Met Office. The final days of April saw unsettled and cold weather systems across more northerly areas of the UK, which brought frost and snow to high ground locations. Research conducted by the Moffat Centre at Glasgow Caledonian University has found that the National Museum of Scotland was Scotland s most popular attraction during 2014, welcoming more than 1.6 million visitors. The research estimated that around 55 million people visited tourist destinations in Scotland during 2014, a 3.3% increase on 2013, which was boosted by the high profile events throughout the year such as the Glasgow Commonwealth Games, The Ryder Cup, and anniversaries associated with the First World War. Research conducted by European Cities Marketing indicates that there has been an increase in European city bednights, with a strong presence by the Chinese market in particular. Results indicate that growth has been identified year on year in both international and domestic bednights. However, exponential growth has been identified for international nights in comparison to the domestic market. This may signify an important focal point for the short break market in Scotland. Scotland s two largest airports achieved their busiest April on record, which was boosted by the placement of the Easter break. Edinburgh Airport achieved a 10.2% increase on the same period in 2014, with almost 930,000 passengers, boosted by an increase in domestic flights to and from London. Glasgow saw growth of 15.4% on April 2014, welcoming 665,000 passengers during the period, which was greatly enhanced by the increase of long-haul flights to the airport. Aberdeen welcomed more than 300,000 passengers during the same period. However, this was 2.9% down on April 2014, with many suggesting the changing conditions of the oil and gas sector had an impact on airport traffic. Information Sources GBTS - Great Britain Tourism Survey IPS - International Passenger Survey GBDVS - Great Britain Day Visit Survey SAOS - Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey (SAOS represented as % of total occupancy.) Unless stated % Change and percentage point difference is calculated against comparable period in previous 12 months. For further information on this briefing please contact the Insights Department - research@visitscotland.com Disclaimer: This document has been produced by VisitScotland Insight Department. Due to data collection methodology figures are considered provisional, may be subject to change upon revision and may not total 100% due to rounding. VisitScotland are subject to data provision from third parties and cannot guarantee the availability of specific data. No representation or warranty is given (expressed or implied) as to accuracy or correctness of the information and of the opinions contained in this report. The material shouldn t be regarded as specific advice and no action should be taken with reliance on it. Neither the authors nor VisitScotland accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage in any way or reliance put upon the material. 8

9 Appendix Note: Quarter 4 Data In the October December 2014 period, a data collection issue resulted in the number of GBTS interviews conducted each month being lower than the expected sample for this survey. The interviews were also less closely matched to the profile of the population, requiring the application of a more complex weighting procedure. As a result, the data for the months of October, November and December is insufficiently robust to issue separate monthly results, and so has been combined to create a quarterly report. Some caution is still required in interpreting these results, as the reduced sample size means that the margin of error is wider than in a standard 3 month period. 9

10 Notes 10