Tunisia An Oasis of Peace and Tolerance: Findings from a Panel Survey

Transcription

1 Tunisia An Oasis of Peace and Tolerance: Findings from a Panel Survey Mansoor Moaddel Professor of Sociology University of Maryland moaddel@umd.edu The data used in this presentation are from projects funded by the Office of Naval Research and AFRICOM 1

2 Project Team Members University of Maryland Mansoor Moaddel, PI David Combs, Research Affiliate University of Michigan Julie de Jong Stuart Karabenick Zeina Mneimneh Beth-Ellen Pennell Longwood University Sarai Blincoe Institute National du Travail et des Etudes Sociales, Tunisia Moez Ben Hmida ELKA Consulting, Tunis Mohamed Ikbal Elloumi Eastern Michigan University Kristine Ajrouch 2

3 Panel Survey Characteristics: A nationally representative sample of 3,070 adults (age 18+) were interviewed in March-May, Same respondents re-contacted in April-August, 2015, yielding 2,395 completed interviews. 3

4 I. Changes in Values: Increase in support for social individualism No change in attitudes toward gender equality Decline in support for political Islam or army rule Increase in preference for Western-type government The rise of national identity and national pride Increase in religious tolerance 4

5 Social Individualism 64% 56% 26% 29% 0% Love as basis for marriage It's up to a woman to dress whatever way she wants (% Strongly agree/agree) 5

6 Gender Equality (% Strongly disagree/disagree) 100% 90% 80% 81% 82% 86% 80% 21% 22% 44% 38% 25% 25% 0% Acceptable for man to have more than one wife A wife must Men make better always obey her political leaders husband University education more important for boys Men have more rights to a job 6

7 Secular Politics 100% 90% 80% 73% 73% 71% 63% 65% 53% 0% Tunisia better if religion and politics are separated (strongly agree/agree) Having an Islamic govt (fairly/very bad) Good govt implements only sharia (least/not important) 7

8 Form of Government 100% 90% 80% 0% 47% 57% Tunisia better if govt similar to Western govts (% strongly agree/agree) Strong head of govt who doesn't bother with parliament and elections (% very/fairly good) 36% 28% 29% Having the army rule (% very/fairly good) 8

9 Religious versus National Identity 59% 52% 42% 38% 38% 47% 51% 0% % I am Muslim above all % I am Tunisian above all % I see myself as a citizen of the Islamic umma % I see myself as a citizen of Tunisia 9

10 National Pride % Very proud to be a Tunisian 100% 95% 90% 85% 84% 80% 75% 77% 65% 55% 10

11 Religious Tolerance (% Strongly disagree/disagree) 100% 90% 80% 0% 81% 89% Non-Muslims should be prohibited to practice their religion in Tunisia 66% 77% Our children should not be allowed to learn about other religions 77% 84% The followers of other religions should not have the same rights as mine 33% Criticism of Islam should not be tolerated 69% 71% Criticism of Muslim religious leaders should not be tolerated 11

12 II. Government Performance, Elections, Corruption & Information Sources: Government performing better Tunisia more democratic Elections fairer Corruption among public officials less common Higher trust in prime minister, president & the military More reliance on the national and less on international sources of information 12

13 Government Performance & the Development of Democracy in Tunisia How well is the govt doing (1=Very bad; 10=Very good) How democratic is Tunisia (1=Not at all; 10=Completely) 13

14 Fairness of Elections & Prevalence of Corruption among Public Officials 90% 80% 0% 69% 77% Fairness of last election (% completely fair/with minor problems) 15% 19% Corruption among govt officials (% uncommon/very uncommon) 14

15 Trust in Political Leaders & Political Institutions (% A lot/some) 100% 95% 92% 90% 80% 54% 52% 45% 46% 39% 31% 23% 22% 0% Political parties President Prime Minister Military Press 15

16 Reliance on Types of Media as Sources of Information % Rely a great deal/some 80% 76% 47% 44% 31% 28% 29% 34% 0% Tunisian television International television Social networking sites Internet 16

17 III. Perceptions of Outgroups More favorable toward Americans & French Less moral centric: a higher rating of Americans and lower rating of Tunisians on a morality scale Substantial increase in distrusting the Salafis 17

18 Like Having Americans, French, & Saudis as Neighbors (%) 80% 57% 64% 67% 58% 46% 0% Americans French Saudis 18

19 Mean level of morality Morality of Americans & Tunisians (on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being low morality and 10 high morality ) The U.S. Tunisia 19

20 Trust in the Salafis 90% 80% 80% 55% 0% 23% 11% 12% 9% 3% 8% A lot Some Only a little Not at all 20

21 IV. Perception of Personal Efficacy Weaker perception of insecurity A higher level of perceived control over one s life Less fatalistic 21

22 Mean level of emotion Perceived Control (1= lowest control or everything decided by fate ) Free choice and control Free will vs. Fate 22

23 90% In Tunisia these days, life is unpredictable and dangerous 80% 62% 22% 46% 28% 0% Agree Strongly agree 23

24 V. Changes in Attitudes toward Political Violence Lower approval of attack on the American military in Iraq or Afghanistan Stronger willingness to fight outgroups 24

25 Approval of Political Violence % Strongly/somewhat approve of attacks on 57% 36% 0% US military in Iraq or Afghanistan 5% 6% 4% 5% US civilians working for US companies in Europe US civilians working in Islamic countries 2% 1% Tunisian security forces 25

26 Willingness to Fight Out-groups (% Strongly agree) 90% 80% 79% 23% 15% 11% 27% 35% 35% 0% Threaten enemies and make them suffer Self-sacrifice to defend Tunisia Muslims must use violence against enemies of Islam Tunisians oblgated to fight influence of Western culture Shi'is a threat to Sunnis 26

27 VI. Changes in Attitudes toward the Arab Spring & Obligations of Tunisians 27

28 Most importance purpose of political upheavals in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia 56% 29% 0% Freedom and democracy 8% 8% Islamic government 2% 2% Counter Western influence 15% Economic equality and prosperity 9% Western conspiracy 5% 5% Unity of all Arab countries 28

29 Most importance obligation for Tunisians 80% 74% 0% Excel in science and technology 2% 1% Travel to Muslim countries to fight enemies of Islam 15% Defend people s freedom of speech 18% Apply Islamic shari a in Tunisia 29

30 Correlations of Changes in Attitudes Increase in religious tolerance.121* Decline in approval of assault on US military troops Decline in approval of assault on US military troops Decline in trust in Salafis * Decline in trust in Salafis Decreased support for Islamic govt Decreased support for sharia Increase in support for Western govt Decreased support for Islamic.192*.065*.157* govt Decreased support for sharia.132* *.309* Increase in support for Western *.073*.058* govt Increase in secular identity.054*.066* *.059*

31 Recap: Tunisians Grew More Favorable toward Liberal Democracy Stronger support for social individualism Higher religious tolerance Increase in support for national identity More favorable perception of government Stronger perception of personal efficacy Less support for political Islam Less trust in religious extremism Less supportive of political violence More favorable attitudes toward Americans 31

32 Thank you! 32