Zagorski The Shale Gas Boom and Bust

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1 Zagorski 2010 The Shale Gas Boom and Bust

2 Introduction Outline Shales and Claystones Conventional Petroleum Systems How to Drill a Well Unconventional Petroleum Systems Three Shale Gas Basins Comments on Diverse Problems: Water, Resource Assessments, Joint Ventures, Gas Prices, Booms and Busts Conclusions

3 Acknowledgements: PSU: Christine Hulbe, Ansel Johnson, Mike Cummings, Paul Hammond, Dick Thoms, Tom Benson ARCO:Paul Pause, Jim Brooks, Paul Willette, Denny Tower, Bob Olson, Tom Arthur, Graham Hopkins, John Grace, Paul LaPointe Dave White, Chris Cornelius, Dennis Carlton, Bill Zagorski

4 Introduction Outline Shales and Claystones Conventional Petroleum Systems How to Drill a Well Unconventional Petroleum Systems Three Shale Gas Basins Comments on Diverse Problems: Water, Resource Assessments, Joint Ventures, Gas Prices, Booms and Busts Conclusions

5

6 Shales and Claystones The Neglected Lithologies M Jurassic Snowshoe Formation, Blue Mountains, Oregon

7 Upper Cretaceous Hunters Cove Formation, Cape Sebastian, Oregon

8 Paunsagut Plateau, Southwest Utah Upper Cretaceous Mancos Shale

9 Eastern Grand Canyon, Arizona Kaibab Monocline, Paleozoic Strata

10 Claystones are deposited in quiet water environments

11 (courtesy of Schlumberger)

12 Introduction Shales and Claystones Conventional Petroleum Systems How to Drill a Well Unconventional Petroleum Systems Three Shale Gas Basins Comments on Diverse Problems: Water, Resource Assessments, Joint Ventures, Gas Prices, Booms and Busts Conclusions

13 Conventional Petroleum Systems Reservoir Rock Seal Rock Structure or Trap Source Rock Maturation of Source Rock Migration of Oil and Gas

14 Reservoir: Porosity Without Permeability Reservoir: Porosity With Permeability

15 Structure Reservoirs-Seals-Source Rocks Seep = Migration

16 Source rock: Kerogen supports the walls of algae. With burial, kerogen breaks down to yield oil and gas. Seaweed enteromorpha sp

17 Source rock: Algae sink to the sea floor after death. Kerogen preservation depends on anoxic conditions on the basin floor Oxygenated water Photic zone Anaerobic water Dead algae sinks to the sea floor Oxygenated water Kerogen preserved Sea Floor Kerogen not preserved

18 Black Sea: Model for Anoxic Basins Where Kerogen is Preserved

19 Late Jurassic Paleogeography A A A A A A A A = Basins with anoxic deposition Copyright Ron Blakely

20 Burial of kerogen results in heating, which causes it to break down yielding oil, gas, and ultimately carbon. The depth of each of these events depends on the local geothermal gradient and the composition of the kerogen.

21 Thermal maturation of kerogen also generates nano-porosity

22

23 Seal

24 Time 1 Seal Time 2 Seal

25 Conventional petroleum systems require a well orchestrated subsurface sequence Reservoir Rock Seal Rock Structure or Trap Source Rock Maturation of Source Rock Migration of oil and gas

26 Introduction Shales and Claystones Conventional Petroleum Systems How to Drill a Well Unconventional Petroleum Systems Three Shale Gas Basins Comments on Diverse Problems: Water, Resource Assessments, Joint Ventures, Gas Prices, Booms and Busts Conclusions

27 How to drill a well Brockmann (1971)

28 Brockmann (1971)

29 Brockmann (1971)

30 Deviated Wells First developed to reach offshore locations Subsequently used to reach multiple reservoirs Recently, horizontal wells used to increase reservoir pay

31 Brockmann (1971)

32 Two procedures assure the integrity of casing: Cement Bond Log (CBL) Positive and Negative Pressure Test

33 Brockmann (1971

34 Chesapeake O&G

35

36

37

38 Chesapeake O & G

39 Drilling Techniques: Early vertical wells perfected casing and testing Early non-vertical wells perfected directional drilling Hydraulic fracturing first used in vertical wells -tight sandstones -coal bed methane wells -early shale gas wells Fluids used in hydraulic fracturing increase volume with length of well components have specific operational roles return to surface with dissolved minerals represent a major disposal-recycling problem

40 Introduction Shales and Claystones Conventional Petroleum Systems How to Drill a Well Unconventional Petroleum Systems Three Shale Gas Basins Comments on Diverse Problems: Water, Resource Assessments, Joint Ventures, Gas Prices, Booms and Busts Conclusions

41 Unconventional petroleum ystems are less demanding Reservoir Rock Seal Rock Structure or Trap Source Rock Maturation of Source Rock Migration of oil and gas

42 Time 1 Seal Time 2 Seal Unconventional Reservoir

43 Time 1 Conventional Reservoirs Seal Time 2 Unconventional Reservoir Seal

44 Coal Bed Methane Hydraulic Fracture Operation

45

46

47

48 Evergreen

49 Introduction Shales and Claystones Conventional Petroleum Systems How to Drill a Well Unconventional Petroleum Systems Three Shale Gas Basins Comments on Diverse Problems: Water, Resource Assessments, Joint Ventures, Gas Prices, Booms and Busts Conclusions

50 A few words about Shales/Claystones characteristics... Marcellus Shale, Como Park, Lancaster, NY: NB joints

51 Shale gas: not just any shale will do Brittle lithologies are required Silica-rich lithologies are preferred Clay-rich lithologies are problematic Kerogen-rich lithologies are required Burial to the gas window (Ro = 1.0%) is required

52 Shale Gas I: Barnett Shale, Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas

53 Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

54 NW Runway Southeast Side of Airport West Side of Airport South Side of Airport

55 Mathews 2008 DFW

56 Mathews 2008

57 Mathews 2008

58 Barnett Play Area FW

59 Shale Gas II: Antrim Play, Michigan Basin, Michigan Goodman & Manis 2008

60 Goodman & Manis 2008

61 Goodman & Manis 2008

62 Goodman & Manis 2008

63 Goodman & Manis 2008

64 Goodman & Manis 2008

65 Goodman & Manis 2008

66 Goodman & Manis 2008

67 Goodman & Manis 2008

68 Goodman & Manis 2008

69 Shale Gas III: Marcellus Shale, Appalachian Foreland Zagorski 2010

70 Zagorski 2010

71 Zagorski 2010

72 Zagorski 2010

73 Zagorski 2010

74 Zagorski 2010

75

76 Marcellus Gas production

77 Lower 48 Plays

78 Introduction Shales and Claystones Conventional Petroleum Systems How to Drill a Well Unconventional Petroleum Systems Three Shale Gas Basins Comments on Diverse Problems: Water, Resource Assessments, Joint Ventures, Gas Prices, Booms and Busts Conclusions

79 What s wrong with this picture?

80 TRAFFIC Problems: many large trucks on rural roads not necessarily designed for the volumes or weight

81 SEISMIC Problems: earthquakes primarily due to waste water injection (Jim Helwig, personal communication) USGS

82 Water Problems Acid mine drainage Bradford, Pa

83 WATER Problems Public waste water facilities unable to handle waste water volumes Public waste water treatment facilities unable to handle the contaminants. On-going drought creating competition for water among diverse users in some localities How big with the water problems become? Consider Texas..

84 Nicot & Scanlon 2012 Texas Shale Gas Plays

85 Nicot & Scanlon 2012 Water in Texas shale gas completions

86 Barnett Shale Wells and Water Use Mgal = million gallons Nicot & Scanlon 2012

87 Forecast of Texas Shale Well Water Use Nicot & Scanlon 2012

88 Deeper wells require more drilling and hydraulic fracturing fluid

89 How big is this resource? Opinions differ Consider production decline curves...

90 33,333 Mcfd Haynesville Shale Gas 3,333 Mcfd 2000 Mcfd 333 Mcfd abundance-or-mirage-why-marcellus-shale-will-disappoint-expectations

91

92

93

94 EIA February 2011

95 EIA February 2011

96 EIA February 2011

97 EIA March 2011

98 US Estimates 1997 Rogner: 960 TCF technically recoverable shale gas 2009 PGC: 616 TCF technically recoverable shale gas 2010 ARI: 820 TCF technically recoverable shale gas 2011 EIA 750 TCF technically recoverable shale gas Why have these estimates changed? 1. Better definition of play areas 2. Better but limited well production data 3. Changing gas prices

99 Are further changes in shale gas assessments likely? Wink, TX

100

101 Over $67 billion in sales and joint-ventures

102 $16.7 billion in carried drilling expenses

103

104 $8.2 billion in write-downs since July 2012

105 In the near term assessments are likely to go down...? But how low and for how long?

106 Conclusions CBM was engineering precursor to shale gas Shale gas represents low risk exploration target Shale gas production due to improving well completion techniques Size of resource is unclear at this time, due to gas price volatility and limited well data Several environmental problems unsolved Will regulators effectively oversee operators?

107 Thank you

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