Bay Area Earthquake Impacts and Recovery Planning

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1 Bay Area Earthquake Impacts and Recovery Planning DANIELLE HUTCHINGS, P.E., EARTHQUAKE AND HAZARDS PROGRAM COORDINATOR ASSOCIATION OF BAY AREA GOVERNMENTS May 19, 2011 Bay Area InfraGard

2 Presentation Outline What is ABAG? What will be the impacts of an earthquake on the Bay Area? Lifeline interdependencies Recovery planning issues Need for a Regional Resilience Action Plan Discussion questions

3 Association of Bay Area Governments Council of Governments formed by the 101 cities and 9 counties of the Bay Area Offers its members research and analysis, planning and outreach, and member service programs Earthquake and Hazards program to increase resilience of the Bay Area from natural disasters and assist local governments with mitigation and recovery planning

4 We live in earthquake country Seven faults are capable of a M6.7 or larger earthquake. When the earthquake strikes, it is up to us to decide whether we emerge stronger or fall into disarray. Source: USGS

5 All Sectors of Our Society are Vulnerable Existing deficiencies are exacerbated in a disaster Housing Business and Economy Infrastructure Health Education Government Services Environment Land Use

6 155,000 uninhabitable housing units 2/3 in soft story Compared to 16,000 in Loma Prieta 350,000 displaced people 1/3 in shelters People without homes will not return to work, slowing economic recovery Housing Losses

7 Vulnerable Housing Types URM 8% Mobile homes 7% Singlefamily 9% Other 10% Softstory 66% San Francisco soft-story apartment in Loma Prieta earthquake Residents aren t retrofitting 60-70% of retrofits done improperly Take the quiz to find out if your home is at risk quake.abag.ca.gov/residents

8 Housing Losses Cripple wall failure. From Howard Cook Estimated residential losses: $90 Billion Estimated residential losses covered by insurance: $4.4 Billion 5% Mortgages under water, strict lending regulations, high unemployment, and lack of insurance mean there is little capacity to rebuild housing Recovery of region depends on recovery of housing

9 Private Business Modern building codes protect life, not investment 40% of buildings in downtown SF unrepairable 25% of businesses that close following a disaster, do not reopen Nonstructural damage renders many buildings unoccupiable even if no structural damage Only 12% of commercial buildings estimated to have adequate earthquake insurance Disasters accelerate current economic trends Is your business prepared? quake.abag.ca.gov/business/ Failure of office partitions, ceilings, and light fixtures in the 1994 Northridge Earthquake (FEMA 74, 1994) Source: Kircher et al, EERI Spectra 2006, California Department of Insurance, Institute for Business and Home Safety.

10 Economic Recovery How can we avert major employers from leaving the region? What losses and downtime can businesses absorb? What regulatory barriers exist to rebuilding and recovery of businesses? How do we prioritize utility resumption and housing replacement to benefit major business centers? Downtown Santa Cruz, Loma Prieta

11 Infrastructure Infrastructure is critical to a safe and resilient economy. Very tall or very long structures particularly vulnerable. Infrastructure systems are all interconnected. Infrastructure failure disproportionately affects the young, the elderly, and those with special needs.

12 Infrastructure Exposure Hazard Roadway (miles) Transit (miles) Rail (miles) Bridges and Interchanges Total 33, , Earthquake Shaking (highest 58% 77% 58% 65% 70% shaking categories) Liquefaction Susceptibility 49% 69% 68% 15% 8% Liquefaction Hazard (within 18% 42% 27% 26% 6% CGS study zone) Earthquake Faulting (within 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% CGS zone) Dam Failure Inundation 19% 40% 32% 29% 25% Hospitals

13 Regional Water System 100+ water retailers 6,000-10,000 water pipeline breaks or major leaks in Hayward fault earthquake Compared to 507 in Loma Prieta Hetch-Hetchy aqueducts, EBMUD aqueducts, South Bay aqueduct, and numerous local pipelines cross the Hayward fault. Improvements have been made to many of these systems at fault crossings Some dams are also on or near faults.

14 Regional Water System and the Delta 50 Delta levee failures in Hayward fault earthquake 2004 sunny day Jones Tract levee failure 75% of water supplied by agencies that get all or part of water from the Delta or have aqueducts passing through the Delta Export of fresh water disrupted for several years due to a major earthquake Some water districts lack alternative sources of water (e.g. CCWD) Many other utilities located within the Delta Source: 2008 Delta Risk Management Strategy, ABAG 2009 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan

15 Restoring Regional Water Service What is the timeframe for restoring service? How much water storage is available within the Bay Area? How much Interoperability is there between water retailers? How well developed are long-term conservation plans? How do we service industries with special water requirements? SFPUC Seismic Upgrade

16 Regional Transportation System 1,700 predicted road closures Alameda-Contra Costa BART tunnel expected to take 2+ years to restore full service Major susceptibility of roads, bridge approaches, railways, airport runways, and ports to liquefaction Liquefaction Hazard M6.9 San Andreas fault

17 Expected Road Closures Hayward fault

18 Expected Road Closures 1906 repeat

19 Restoring Regional Transportation System How are road repairs prioritized for recovery activities? What regional coordination efforts will be necessary to bridge Caldecott BART tunnel disruption? What is the approach for restoring external linkages to ports and airports? How will transit be reorganized for recovery phase? BART system vulnerability- from Jack Moehle, Loma Prieta Commemorative Symposium, October 17, 2009

20 Regional Airport System In Loma Prieta earthquake: SFO undamaged, but closed for one night because air traffic controllers were not able to reach the airport for shift change. OAK experienced liquefaction damage to 3,000 feet of main runway. 30 days to repair under emergency order. SJC re-opened within 40 minutes Future earthquakes: Liquefaction damage to airport runways Damage to air control and terminal facilities Power and communications disruptions Disruptions to power and fuel systems serving airports

21 Likelihood of Damage to Airport Runways Airport name Liquefaction susceptibility of runway area Approx. probability of airport closure due to liquefaction in the next 30 years OAK - Oakland Very high 61% (less for North Field runways) SFO San Francisco Very high 18% SJC San Jose Runway repaired - Travis Air Force Base Low <2% Moffett Airfield Very high From <2% (S end) to 50% (N end of longer runway) Hayward Moderate <2% Livermore High 4% Buchanan High 6% Napa County Low <2% Half Moon Bay Low <2% Santa Rosa - Solano Very low <2%

22 Communications and Cyber Systems Loss of power will increase downtime Economy relies heavily on communications and cyber systems Need for system redundancy Network servers are not considered essential facilities and may be housed in vulnerable buildings

23 Lifeline Interdependencies Lifeline interdependencies create a critical need for sharing information in order to schedule repairs Major susceptibility to liquefaction damage Major water, gas, and electric lines, roads, railways vulnerable to levee failure in the Delta Source: Adapted from Peerenboom et. al, 2001

24 Importance of Cascading Failures The impacts of major catastrophes are not simply linearly related to the size of the impacted area, but rather can explode exponentially if infrastructure is impacted. Hurricane Katrina and the Japan earthquake have demonstrated the importance of cascading failures in infrastructure systems

25 Recovery of Lifelines How do we manage the coordination of critical lifeline repair among so many utility providers How does the region strategically reinvest in utility reconstruction? How do we rebuild lifelines to be more resilient to future damage? Bay Bridge East Span Replacement

26 Need for Regional Disaster Resilience Action Plan Lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina, New Zealand and Japan earthquakes have highlighted the importance of increasing the region s resilience to earthquakes. Meaningful post-disaster planning is difficult when governments in crisis mode and victims have immediate needs We need to improve the Bay Area s capacity to withstand, adapt, and reconstitute the essential facilities and services that underpin the Bay Area economy, and health, safety, and overall well-being of its citizens by: Developing a Regional Disaster Resilience Action Plan focusing on recovery and restoration after major disasters and incidents. Establishing a Regional Disaster Resilience Council and convening stakeholders to identify existing recovery capabilities and identify gaps.

27 Questions for Discussion 1. Looking at the impacts to interdependent lifelines and other critical infrastructures, what in your view are the top priority concerns facing the Bay Area from a major earthquake? 2. What organizations, agencies, and regional associations should be involved in recovery and restoration decision-making? 3. What preparedness and mitigation measures could be undertaken to improve the Bay Area s capacity to recover rapidly and adapt to a new normal. 4. Would your organization be interested in participating in a Bay Area Disaster Resilience Initiative focusing on Recovery and Restoration?

Surviving the Storm Economic impacts of an acute flooding event in the Bay Area. Downtown San Anselmo. 2006 New Years Flood

Surviving the Storm Economic impacts of an acute flooding event in the Bay Area. Downtown San Anselmo. 2006 New Years Flood Bay Area Council Water Committee: ABAG, BCDC, BART, SFO, Port of SF, Port of