FloridaElection IssuesSurvey

Transcription

1 FloridaElection IssuesSurvey August2007

2 Florida Election Issues Survey ort prepared by Colette Thayer and Gretchen Straw Data collected by Woelfel Research, Inc. Copyright by AARP, 2007 AARP Knowledge Management 601 E Street, NW Washington, DC rinting with Permission

3 AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership organization that helps people 50+ have independence, choice and control in ways that are beneficial and affordable to them and society as a whole. AARP neither endorses candidates for public office nor makes political contributions. We produce AARP The Magazine, published bimonthly; AARP Bulletin, our monthly newspaper; AARP Segunda Juventud, our bimonthly magazine in Spanish and English; NRTA Live & Learn, our quarterly newsletter for 50+ educators; and our website, AARP Foundation is our affiliated charity that provides security, protection, and empowerment to older persons in need with support from thousands of volunteers, donors, and sponsors. We have staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more information, contact Gretchen Straw at (202)

4 Florida Election Issues Survey AARP commissioned this election issues survey of 501 Florida AARP members who say they may vote in the 2008 ocratic presidential primary and 503 who may vote in the ublican presidential primary 1. The telephone survey was conducted between July 24 and August 15, 2007 by Woelfel Research, Inc. The margin of error for potential voters in each primary is percent. Attentiveness to the Campaigns Key Findings At this point in the election cycle, over seven in ten potential voters in Florida s presidential primary are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely (83 ocratic; 74 ublican). Those planning to vote in the ocratic primary are more likely to say they are following coverage very closely (38 vs. 29) than those planning to vote in the ublican primary. Solidity of Candidate Preference Although AARP members are clearly engaged, they are far from settled in their candidate preferences. Among potential voters in the ocratic primary, over six in ten say they are very (27) or somewhat (39) likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election. The figure is even higher among potential voters in the ublican primary, where 41 are very likely to change their preference and 37 are somewhat likely to change it. Likelihood of Changing Candidate Preference As Respondents Learn More About the Issues ocratic ublican Somewhat Likely Very Likely Mood of the Country AARP members differ in their assessment of whether the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track depending upon the presidential primary in which 1 Surveys were conducted with a random sample of members drawn from AARP s member database who were then screened on both voter registration and intention to vote in the presidential primary for To qualify, a member needed to be a currently registered voter who was possibly, very likely, or absolutely certain to vote in Florida s 2008 presidential primary and needed to identify in which party s primary he or she intended to vote. Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

5 they plan to vote. While 86 of potential voters in the ocratic primary believe the country is on the wrong track, potential voters in the ublican primary are divided (42 right direction vs. 44 wrong track). Issue Landscape When asked in an open-ended question to identify the most important issue facing the country, Florida AARP members of both parties say that Iraq is the most important issue. Among likely voters in the ocratic primary, health care is the second most often cited problem, followed by the economy/jobs. Among likely voters in the ublican primary, terrorism is the second most often cited problem, followed by immigration, the economy/jobs, and health care. Most Important Issue Facing the Country Potential ocratic primary voters Potential ublican primary voters Iraq Health care 12 7 Terrorism <1 11 Immigration 2 9 Economy/jobs 4 8 Financial Security Although financial security does not emerge as a top issue facing the country, it is a critical voting issue. Over nine in ten AARP potential primary voters from each party say that issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection will be important to their votes. This issue is very important to 75 of potential voters in the ocratic primary and to 68 of potential voters in the ublican primary. Importance of Financial Security Issues to Voting Decision ocratic ublican Somewhat Important Very Important How Well Candidates Address Financial Security Potential voters were asked to rate how well each candidate in their party s primary had addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes. Large proportions of AARP members who are potential primary voters don t know enough about their party s candidates stances on financial security to be able to rate them. More than half of potential primary voters didn t know enough about all ten ublican candidates positions on financial security to rate them. And more Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

6 than half could not rate five of the eight ocratic candidates. Although financial security issues are very important to voters, they simply don t know whether candidates are addressing the issues well or not. Rating of Candidates on How Well They Have Addressed the Issue of Ensuring that all Americans Can Build Financial Security for Their Entire Lifetimes Very or Somewhat well Don t Know enough about candidate on this issue 2 ublican Candidates 3 Sen. Sam Brownback 6 84 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee Duncan Hunter 5 86 Sen. John McCain Ron Paul 5 84 Former Gov. Mitt Romney Tom Tancredo 5 86 Former Sen. Fred Thompson Former Gov. Tommy Thompson ocratic Candidates 5 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Former Sen. John Edwards Former Sen. Mike Gravel Dennis J. Kucinich Sen. Barack Obama Gov. Bill Richardson Who Best Addresses Financial Security When potential voters in the ublican primary were asked which one candidate best addressed financial security issues, 74 said they did not know enough about their positions to make a judgment. Those candidates named by over five percent of respondents were Giuliani (8) and Romney (6). 2 Percent in this and subsequent questions refers to those who answered do not know enough to judge. In addition, a small percent fell into a general don t know or refused category. 3 Asked only of those planning to vote in the ublican presidential primary. 4 Since the fielding of this poll, Mr. Tommy Thompson has withdrawn from the race for president. 5 Asked only of those planning to vote in the ocratic presidential primary. Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

7 Over seven in ten potential voters in the ocratic primary (73) also felt that they did not know enough to make a judgment. Clinton was the only candidate named by over five percent of respondents (16). Who Can Break Through Gridlock to Make Progress on Financial Security Slightly over half of potential voters in the ublican primary (57) do not know enough to choose which candidate is best able to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress on ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetime. Four candidates were named by at least five percent as able to deal with special interests and partisan gridlock to make progress in the area: Giuliani (13), Romney (9), Fred Thompson (6), and McCain (5). On the ocratic side, slightly over half (52) say they do not know enough about the candidate positions on the issue to make a choice either. Two candidates were named by over five percent of potential primary voters as best able to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress on financial security: Clinton (28) and Obama (8). Health Care Large majorities of likely primary voters say that health care will be important to their 2008 voting decision. The issue is especially salient among those planning to vote in the ocratic primary where almost all say it is at least somewhat important and 80 rate it as very important. ublicans also say that health care will be important to their voting decisions, with almost half (48) reporting the issue will be very important Importance of Health Care Issues to Voting Decision ocratic ublican Somewhat Important Very Important How Well Candidates Address Health Care Potential voters were asked to rate each candidate in their party s primary on how well he or she has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans have access to affordable, quality health care. As was the case in ratings of the candidates positions on financial security, many potential primary voters of both parties report that they are unable to rate the candidates positions on health care because they don t know enough about them. More than half were unable to rate eight of the ten ublican candidates on this issue. And more than half were unable to rate five of the eight ocratic candidates. Although the issue of health care is important to voting decisions, potential primary voters frequently do not know much about candidates positions on the issue. Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

8 Rating of Candidates on How Well They Have Addressed the Issue of Ensuring that all Americans Have Access to Affordable, Quality Health Care Very or Somewhat well Don t Know enough about candidate on this issue ublican Candidates 6 Sen. Sam Brownback 8 81 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee Duncan Hunter 5 87 Sen. John McCain Ron Paul 6 83 Former Gov. Mitt Romney Tom Tancredo 6 83 Former Sen. Fred Thompson Former Gov. Tommy Thompson ocratic Candidates 7 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Former Sen. John Edwards Former Sen. Mike Gravel Dennis J. Kucinich Sen. Barack Obama Gov. Bill Richardson Who Best Addresses Health Care Potential voters were asked which candidate has best addressed healthcare. Nearly eight in ten (78) potential voters in the ublican primary do not know enough about candidate positions to say who best addresses health care. Romney (6) and Giuliani (5) are the only ublican candidates named by five percent or more as best addressing health care. Slightly over half (52) of potential voters in the ocratic primary also do not know enough about candidate positions to name someone as best addressing the issue. Three candidates are named by five percent or more: Clinton (34), Edwards (6), and Obama (5). 6 Asked only of those planning to vote in the ublican presidential primary. 7 Asked only of those planning to vote in the ocratic presidential primary.. Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

9 Who Can Break Through Gridlock to Make Progress on Health Care Over half of potential voters in the ublican primary (56) and almost four in ten potential voters in the ocratic primary (39) don t know enough about candidate positions on health care to assess who could best break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare. Four ublicans are named by five percent or more: Giuliani (13), Romney (10), Fred Thompson (7), and McCain (5). Three ocrats are named by five percent or more: Clinton (40), Obama (8), and Edwards (5). Conclusions AARP members who may vote in the Florida presidential primaries are following candidate coverage. However, they have not settled on presidential preferences. Most say they may change their preference as they learn more about the candidates positions on the issues. Two domestic issues financial security and health care were explored in depth. Both of these issues are important to AARP members as they decide on their votes. However, in spite of following campaign coverage, large proportions of the potential voters in the Florida primaries do not know enough about candidate positions on financial security and health care to be able to assess them or choose which candidate would best address the issues. Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

10 AARP Issues Poll: Florida Samples: 501 AARP members likely ocratic primary voters in Florida 503 AARP members likely ublican primary voters in Florida * denotes statistical significance at the 90 confidence level. 1. Are you currently registered to vote in Florida? Yes No (TERMINATE) Don t Know (TERMINATE) 2. Even though the Florida presidential primary is next year, how closely have you been following the coverage of your party s presidential candidates? 38* Very closely Somewhat closely 13 17* 3. Not too closely 5 9* 4. Not at all closely DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED] PRIMARY STATES 3. In 2008, Florida will hold a presidential primary election so that each party can select its own candidate for President. How likely are you to vote in this primary election? Absolutely certain Very likely Possibly Not very likely (TERMINATE) Not at all likely (TERMINATE) Don't know (TERMINATE) Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

11 4. In the Florida presidential primary for 2008, do you plan to vote as a ocrat, or as a ublican? ocrat CODE AS DEM PRIMARY VOTER ublican CODE AS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER Don't know / no plan to vote (DO NOT READ) (TERMINATE) 5. What do you believe is the most important issue facing the country? OPEN END WITH PRE CODES <1 <1 1. abortion 1 <1 2. balance the budget - <1 3. budget cuts campaign finance reform 1 <1 5. crime - <1 6. corruption <1-7. discrimination/bigotry/racism drugs 4 8* 9. economy/jobs education the environment - <1 12. guns/gun violence need for gun control guns too much regulation 12* healthcare homelessness <1-16. housing 2 9* 17. immigration 55* Iraq <1 1* 19. morality/family values 1 <1 20. Medicare pension reform <1 <1 22. politics as usual - <1 23. prescription drugs protecting Social Security 1 3* 25. taxes <1-26. teen violence <1 11* 27. terrorism retirement 14 20* 29. Other SPECIFY ) Don t know DO NOT READ Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

12 6. Overall, do you think things in the country are generally headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? 5 42* 1. Right direction 86* Wrong track 9 14* 9. Don t know [VOLUNTEERED] 7a. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will the issue of health care be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important? 80* Very important 17 37* 2. Somewhat important 2 10* 3. Not too important 1 5* 4. Not at all important 1 <1 9. Don t know [VOLUNTEERED] 7b. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, how would you rate (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) in terms of how well (he/she) has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare? (PRESENT RANDOMLY) Ask for potential ublican primary voters Sen. Sam Brownback Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Duncan Hunter Sen. John McCain. Ron Paul Former Gov. Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo Former Gov. Tommy Thompson Former Sen. Fred Thompson Ask for potential ocratic primary voters Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Former Sen. John Edwards Gov. Bill Richardson Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. Dennis J. Kucinich Former Sen. Mike Gravel Sen. Barack Obama Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

13 Would you say (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) has addressed this issue very well, somewhat well, not too well, not at all well, or do you not know enough about (CANDIDATE NAME) on this issue? ublicans Brownback Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Paul Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED] ublicans Romney Tancredo Tommy Thompson Fred Thompson Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED] ocrats Dodd Clinton Edwards Richardson Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED] ocrats Biden Kucinich Gravel Obama Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED] Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

14 7c. Which candidate do you feel has best addressed health care, or do you not know enough about their positions on health care to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES or Code Do not know enough to judge - Sen. Sam Brownback <1 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 5 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 34 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton <1 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 6 Former Sen. John Edwards -. Duncan Hunter <1 Gov. Bill Richardson 2 Sen. John McCain <1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1. Ron Paul <1. Dennis J. Kucinich 6 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel -. Tom Tancredo 5 Sen. Barack Obama 1 Former Gov. Tommy Thompson 2 Other 1 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 52 Don t know enough to judge 4 Other 78 Don t know enough to judge 8. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, which candidate do you feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare, or do you not know enough about the candidates to make a choice? - Sen. Sam Brownback - Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 13 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 40 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton <1 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 5 Former Sen. John Edwards -. Duncan Hunter <1 Gov. Bill Richardson 5 Sen. John McCain 1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1. Ron Paul <1. Dennis J. Kucinich 10 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel -. Tom Tancredo 8 Sen. Barack Obama 1 Former Gov. Tommy Thompson 4 Other 7 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 39 Don t know enough to judge 3 Other 56 Don t know enough to judge Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

15 9a. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important? 75* Very important 20 25* 2. Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important < Don t know [VOLUNTEERED] 9b. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, how would you rate (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) in terms of how well (he/she) has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes? (PRESENT RANDOMLY) Ask for potential ublican primary voters Sen. Sam Brownback Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Duncan Hunter Sen. John McCain. Ron Paul Former Gov. Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo Former Gov. Tommy Thompson Former Sen. Fred Thompson Ask for potential ocratic primary voters Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Former Sen. John Edwards Gov. Bill Richardson Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. Dennis J. Kucinich Former Sen. Mike Gravel Sen. Barack Obama Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

16 Would you say (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) has addressed this issue very well, somewhat well, not too well, not at all well, or do you not know enough about (CANDIDATE NAME) on this issue? ublicans Brownback Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Paul Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED] ublicans Romney Tancredo Tommy Thompson Fred Thompson Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED] ocrats Dodd Clinton Edwards Richardson Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED] ocrats Biden Kucinich Gravel Obama Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED] Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

17 9c. Which candidate do you feel has best addressed financial security issues, or do you not know enough about their positions on financial security issues to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES, or Code Do not know enough to judge. - Sen. Sam Brownback <1 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 8 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 16 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton <1 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 2 Former Sen. John Edwards -. Duncan Hunter <1 Gov. Bill Richardson 3 Sen. John McCain 1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1. Ron Paul 1. Dennis J. Kucinich 6 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel -. Tom Tancredo 3 Sen. Barack Obama <1 Former Gov. Tommy Thompson 2 Other 2 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 73 Don t Know 3 Other 74 Don t Know 10. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, which candidate do you feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes, or do you not know enough about the candidates to make a choice? - Sen. Sam Brownback - Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 13 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 28 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 1 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 4 Former Sen. John Edwards <1. Duncan Hunter 1 Gov. Bill Richardson 5 Sen. John McCain 1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1. Ron Paul <1. Dennis J. Kucinich 9 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel -. Tom Tancredo 8 Sen. Barack Obama 1 Former Gov. Tommy Thompson 3 Other 6 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 52 Don t know enough to judge 3 Other 57 Don t know enough to judge Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

18 11. How likely are you to change your candidate preference as you learn more about the issues between now and the election? 27 41* 1. Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely 16* 6 4. Not at all likely Don t know (volunteered) 12. Please tell me if you have gotten any information about the candidates and their position on issues from: (Code yes/no for each) ocrats ublicans Yes No Don t Know Yes No Don t Know 69* 61 Newspapers 88* 79 TV news 58* 43 TV talk shows 63* 40 Televised candidate debates 31 42* News radio 22 35* Talk radio 23* 17 Candidate forums Campaign mailings 37* 31 Friends and family Campaign websites Other internet sites 9 10 Other (specify) 13. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY) 4 76* 1. A ublican 76* 2 2. A ocrat An Independent <1 2* 4. (DO NOT READ) Other (DO NOT READ) Don t know (DO NOT READ) Refused Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

19 (SCRAMBLE CODES 1-3) 14. Generally speaking, would you characterize your political views as being...? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY) 20 60* 1. Conservative 50* Moderate 23* 4 3. Liberal (DO NOT READ) None of the Above 4* 2 5. (DO NOT READ) Don t know (DO NOT READ) Refused ographics D1. What is your age as of your last birthday? [RECORD IN YEARS] Under Refused [DO NOT READ] D2. What is your marital status? Are you currently * 1. Married, 14* 9 2. Divorced, <1 <1 3. Separated, Widowed, 5* 2 5. Or have you never been married? 1* <1 6. Living with partner [DO NOT READ] - <1 7. Don't know [DO NOT READ] Refused [DO NOT READ] Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

20 D3. What is the highest level of education you have completed? [READ LIST] 5* 1 1. Less than high school High school graduate or equivalent 26 31* 3. Some college or technical training beyond high school College graduate Or, Post-graduate or professional degree < Don't know [DO NOT READ] Refused [DO NOT READ] D4. Which of the following best describes your current employment status? Are you currently.[read LIST] Employed full-time Employed part-time Retired and not working Unemployed and looking for work Homemaker Disabled Student Or something else [Specify: ] Don t Know [DO NOT READ] Refused [DO NOT READ] D5. For statistical purposes only, please stop me when I get to the category That includes your household s income before taxes in Was it [READ LIST] Less than $10,000 10* 6 2. $10,000 but less than $20, $20,000 but less than $30,000 13* 8 4. $30,000 but less than $40, $40,000 but less than $50, $50,000 but less than $75, $75,000 but less than $100, * 8. $100,000 or more Don't know [DO NOT READ] 17 24* 10. Refused [DO NOT READ] Florida Election Issues Survey, August,

21 D6. Are you Spanish, Latino, or Hispanic? Yes No Don t Know Refused D7. Which of the following groups best describes your race? [READ LIST] 81 95* 1. White 14* <1 2. Black or African-American <1 <1 3. Asian Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 1-5. American Indian or Alaska Native Other <1-7. Don t know Refused D8. What is your gender? 40 50* 1. Male 61* Female D9. Finally, what is your 5-digit zip code? Florida Election Issues Survey, August,