Presented By: Brooks Kochvar. Greg Strimple

Transcription

1 AARP SURVEY: FLORIDA Presented By: Brooks Kochvar Greg Strimple GS Strategy Group 350 N. Ninth Street, Suite 550 Boise, ID (208) FL Primary Survey: October 18 19, 2011; 500N/4.38% Margin of Error +Hispanic Oversample: October 18 20, 2011; 200N/6.9 Margin of Error

2 About AARP AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization with a membership that helps people 50+ have independence, choice and control in ways that are beneficial and affordable to them and society as a whole. AARP does not endorse candidates for public office or make contributions to either political campaigns or candidates. We produce AARP The Magazine, the definitive voice for 50+ Americans and the world's largest circulation magazine with over 35.1 million readers; AARP Bulletin, the go to news source for AARP's millions of members and Americans 50+; AARP VIVA, the only bilingual U.S. publication dedicated exclusively to the 50+ Hispanic community; and our website, AARP.org. AARP Foundation is an affiliated charity that provides security, protection and empowerment to older persons in need with support from thousands of volunteers, donors and sponsors. We have staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. About GS Strategy Group GS Strategy group is an award winning public opinion research firm headed by some of the country's most experienced corporate and political strategists. The firm is located in Boise, Idaho. For more information, call (208) Acknowledgements GS Strategy Group conducted this research with funding from AARP. National media inquiries should be directed to Jim Dau at jdau@aarp.org or (202) For media inquiries in Florida, please contact Kathy Marma at kmarma@aarp.org or ( 727) For additional information, please contact Khelan Bhatia, Senior Advisor for Voter Education, at kbhatia@aarp.org. Copyright 2011 AARP 601 E Street, NW Washington, DC Reprinting with permission only

3 KEY FINDINGS Overview Republican primary voters in Florida believe Social Security and Medicare are critical to the economic security and health care of middle class seniors in retirement. Despite talk in Washington about cutting Social Security and Medicare to reduce the deficit, Republican voters in Florida overwhelmingly oppose cuts to the benefits they say they ve earned and they need. Across the ideological spectrum in the Republican Party, including Tea Party members, strong majorities oppose cuts to SocialSecurity Security and Medicare to meet federal targets. Major Findings The Washington establishment greatly misunderstands Republican primary and caucus voters in Florida who will nominate the next Presidential candidate. By more than 2:1, Florida s GOP primary voters OPPOSE cuts to Social Security and Medicare to balance the budget. For Hispanic primary voters, opposition to cuts jumps to 4:1. Even strong majorities of very conservative GOP voters and voters who agree with the Tea Party OPPOSE cuts to these programs. Strong majorities of each presidential candidate s supporters oppose these cuts. Any Republican candidate advancing cuts to these programs puts their vote at risk. When asked about their Medicare and Social Security benefits, GOP primary voters believe they ve earned it, paid into it their entire life, and need it. They know there are other, less critical areas of government spending that can be cut instead. By wide, super majorities, Florida s GOP primary voters prefer withdrawing troops from Iraq and Afghanistan as an alternative to cutting either Social Security or Medicare. These findings are consistent across all early primary states in which research was conducted (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida). GS Strategy Group 3

4 FLORIDA S GOP PRIMARY VOTERS 87.1% say Social Security benefits are or will be important to their monthly income in retirement. 60. of GOP primary voters in Florida are currently retired. 44.8% rely on Medicare Mdi for their current form of health insurance. 35.4% are currently AARP members. GS Strategy Group 4

5 FLORIDA ELECTORATE Voter Ideology If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate or a conservative in your political beliefs? % 19.6% 76.4% 30.6% S What 45.8% Very Liberal Moderate servative Issues In general, are you most interested in economic issues, like taxes, jobs and the budget deficit; foreign affairs issues like national defense and terrorism; social issues like education, health care and the environment; local community issues like crime, drugs and immigration reform; or moral issues like the right to life and same sex marriage? Economic, 68. DK/Refused, 9.2% Moral, 9.8% Social, 4.6% Local, 3. For. Affairs, 5.4% GS Strategy Group 5

6 FLORIDA PRIMARY Please tell me whether you have a favorable or 10 unfavorable opinion of: Herman Cain % % 10.6% Favorable 10 Unfavorable 28.6% S What 42.2% Very No Opinion Mod Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Media Market S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Regularly Please tell me whether you have a favorable or 10 unfavorable opinion i of: Mitt Romney 74.6% Rarely/ Never Miami Tampa/St. Pete Favorable Unfavorable Net Fav % Orlando Favorable Unfavorable 8 No Opinion 51.4% S What 23.2% Very Mod Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Media Market S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Regularly Rarely/ Never Miami Tampa/St. Pete Favorable Unfavorable Net Fav GS Strategy Group 6 Orlando

7 FLORIDA PRIMARY Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of: Newt Gingrich Favorable 10 Unfavorable % % S What 28.8% 8% Very 26.4% 7.4% No Opinion Mod Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Media Market S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Regularly Rarely/ Never Miami Tampa/St. Pete Favorable Unfavorable Net Fav Orlando Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion i of: Rick Perry % 12.6% Favorable Unfavorable 8 No Opinion 47.4% S What 9.6% Very Mod Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Media Market S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Regularly Rarely/ Never Miami Tampa/St. Pete Favorable Unfavorable Net Fav GS Strategy Group 7 Orlando

8 FLORIDA PRIMARY Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of: Ron Paul Favorable 10 Unfavorable % 33.2% 26. S What 7.2% Very 17.4% No Opinion Mod Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Media Market S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Regularly Rarely/ Never Miami Tampa/St. Pete Favorable Unfavorable Net Fav Orlando Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion i of: Michele Bachmann % 13.2% Favorable Unfavorable 8 No Opinion 37.6% S What 8.4% Very Mod Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Media Market S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Regularly Rarely/ Never Miami Tampa/St. Pete Favorable Unfavorable Net Fav GS Strategy Group 8 Orlando

9 GOP BALLOT FLORIDA If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today, of the following candidates, for whom would you vote? 4 Romney Cain Gingrich Perry Paul Santorum Bachmann Huntsman Undecided % 8.6% 2.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 13.6% Mod Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Media Market S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Regularly Rarely/ Never Miami Tampa/St. Pete Romney Cain Gingrich Perry Paul Santorum Bachmann Huntsman Undecided Orlando GS Strategy Group 9

10 TEA PARTY AND RELIGION FLORIDA Which of the following best describes you: You agree with the Tea Party and have attended Tea Party events You agree with the Tea Party but have not attended Tea Party events You do not agree with ihthe Tea Party You are not aware of the Tea Party Agree w/ Tea Party 10 Do Not Agree % 13.2% ed 63.2% Not ed Not Aware of Ideology Issue Church ance S What Rarely/ Mod Very Econ. Moral Social Foreign Aff. Local Regularly Never Agree w/tea Party Do Not Agree Net Agree How often do you attend church services? Regularly 10 Sev. Times/Month % % Once/Wk 16.4% Sev/Wk 1. Ev. Day Rarely Never 26.8% 9.8% 11.2% Ideology Issue Tea Party S What Mod Very Econ. Moral Social Foreign Aff. Local Not Disagree Regularly Rarely Never GS Strategy Group 10

11 FLORIDA ON SOCIAL SECURITY Do you favor or oppose reducing Social Security benefits for future retirees to help reduce the deficit? % S What 48. Strongly Favor Oppose Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Mod S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Reg Rarely/Never Favor Oppose Net Fav GS Strategy Group 11

12 FLORIDA ON MEDICARE Do you favor or oppose reducing Medicare benefits to help reduce the deficit? 10 Favor Oppose % % 2% 17. S What 53.4% Strongly Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Mod S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Reg Rarely/Never Favor Oppose Net Fav GS Strategy Group 12

13 SPENDING ALTERNATIVES Which of the following would you prefer as a means to cut government spending and reduce the deficit? Eliminate tax loopholes Cutforeign aid Reduce U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan Cut Social Security Cut Medicare benefits % 34.4% 17.6% Eliminate Loopholes Cut Foreign Aid Reduce Involvement/Wars Cut Social Security Cut Medicare 0.8% 0.2% Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Mod S What Very Econ Moral Not Disagree Reg Rarely/Never Eliminate Loopholes Cut Foreign Aid Reduce Involvement/Wars Cut Social Security Cut Medicare Romney Cain Gingrich Perry Paul Santorum Bachmann Huntsman Undec Eliminate Loopholes Cut Foreign Aid Reduce Involvement/Wars Cut Social Security Cut Medicare GS Strategy Group 13

14 CHALLENGING CONVENTIONAL WISDOM Which would you prefer as a means to decrease government 8.8% Cuts to Medicare spending : Cuts to Medicare benefits or Withdrawal of troops Net 57.4 from Iraq and Afghanistan. Withdraw Troops 66.2% Which would you prefer as a means to cut government spending and reduce the deficit: Cuts to Social Security benefits or Withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. 7.8% Cuts to Social Security Net 56.2 Withdraw Troops 64. GS Strategy Group

15 ECONOMIC SECURITY INITIATIVES The following is another list of potential initiatives to strengthen retirement security. Please tell me if you favor or oppose the reforms. Tea Party Agree Currently, seniors are mandated to withdraw from their retirement Favor savings at the age of 70 ½ or they will face a stiff tax penalty. Would you Oppose favor or oppose allowing seniors to grow their nest eggs for an additional five years without facing this tax penalty? Net Issue Moral Very Creating a smart card for Medicare patients that will make it harder for criminals to commit fraud by stealing a senior s identity. Favor Oppose Net Establishing separate health courts for medical malpractice claims to help rein in costs and reduce frivolous lawsuits. Favor Oppose Net GS Strategy Group 15

16 HEALTHCARE SECURITY INITIATIVES Do you support or oppose the following ideas to increase the solvency of Medicare? Tea Party Agree Issue Moral Very Incentivizing doctors and hospitals to work together to reduce costly hospital readmissions. Support Oppose Net Adopting electronic medical records and other health care information technology to treat patients more efficiently and better track the care they need. Support Oppose Net Improving the coordination of care for patients with chronic conditions to cut down on unnecessary tests and procedures Support Oppose Net GS Strategy Group 16

17 HISPANIC OVERSAMPLE FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY VOTERS 93.9% (versus 87.1% of FL Primary voters in general) say Social Security benefits are or will be important to their monthly income in retirement. 47.5% of Hispanic primary voters in Florida are currently retired (versus 6 of FL Primary voters in general). 36. rely on Medicare for their current form of health insurance (versus 50.2% of FL primary voters in general). 24.5% are currently AARP members (versus 35.4% of FL Primary voters in general). GS Strategy Group 17

18 HISPANIC OVERSAMPLE Voter Ideology If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate or a conservative in your political beliefs? Liberal Moderate 8 servative % S What 34. Very Issues In general, are you most interested in economic issues, like taxes, jobs and the budget deficit; foreign affairs issues like national defense and terrorism; social issues like education, health care and the environment; local community issues like crime, drugs and immigration reform; or moral issues like the right to life and same sex marriage? Economic, 66. DK/Refused, 4.5% Moral, 9.5% Social, 9.5% Local, 4. Foreign Affairs, 6.5% GS Strategy Group 18

19 HISPANIC OVERSAMPLE FLORIDA If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today, of the following candidates, for whom would you vote? 5 Romney Cain Perry Gingrich Bachmann Paul Huntsman Santorum Undecided % 21.5% % % 1.5% 0.5% Net Diff/ FL Gen Mod Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Insurance S What Very Rarely/ Econ. Moral Disagree Not Regularly Never Romney Cain Perry Gingrich Bachmann Paul Huntsman Santorum Undecided Gov t Other GS Strategy Group 19

20 HISPANIC OVERSAMPLE AT A GLANCE Do you favor or oppose reducing Social Security benefits for future retirees to help reduce the deficit? % S What % Strongly 13.5% Favor Oppose Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Mod S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Reg Rarely/Never Favor Oppose Net Fav GS Strategy Group 20

21 HISPANIC OVERSAMPLE AT A GLANCE Do you favor or oppose reducing Medicare benefits to help reduce the deficit? 10 Favor Oppose S What Strongly 16.5% Ideology Issue Tea Party Church ance Mod S What Very Econ. Moral Not Disagree Reg Rarely/Never Favor Oppose Net Fav GS Strategy Group 21

22 THE RESEARCH In addition to the Florida survey, GS Strategy Group conducted surveys of Republican caucus and primary voters in the following states: IA Caucus Survey NH Primary Survey Oct , 2011; 400N/4.9 Margin of Error Oct , 2011; 400N/4.9 Margin of Error SC Pi Primary Survey Ot18 Oct , ; 400N/4.9 Margin of Error

23 STATE COMPARISONS Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina Florida Mitt Romney Herman Ci Cain Newt Gingrich Rick Perry Ron Paul Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Jon Hunstman, Jr Undecided GS Strategy Group 23

24 STATE COMPARISONS Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina Florida AARP Membership Percentage opposed to reducing Social Security benefits for future retirees to help reduce the deficit. Percentage who agrees: The strength and solvency of Social Security is essential to seniors economic security in retirement Percentage opposed to reducing Medicare benefits to help reduce the deficit. Percentage who agrees: The strength and solvency of Medicare is essential to seniors healthcare security in retirement GS Strategy Group 24

25 STATE COMPARISONS Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina Florida Percentage who says Social Security benefits are or will be important to their monthly income in retirement Percentage Retired Mean Age Percentage relying on Medicare for their current form of health hinsurance Percentage Agrees with Tea Party & s Events Percentage Agrees with Tea Party & Does Not Events Percentage s Church hregularly l GS Strategy Group 25