2016: THE LATINO VOTE. Mike Madrid,

Transcription

1 2016: THE LATINO VOTE Mike Madrid,

2 Latino Voter Registration in California CA Latino Likely Voters 29% 37% A 2015 PPIC report indicates that only 18 percent of all registered Latino voters are considered likely voters. Of this universe, a vast majority are registered Democrats, and only 23 percent are Republican. 23% 11% A Pew Research Center study released earlier this year estimated that a lofty 44 percent of the record 27.3 million eligible Latinos nationally are Millennials. However, their turnout rate was over 20 points lower than the rate of the overall voter population in Democrat Republican Independent Other

3 A Snapshot of the EDUCATION POLICY Latinos tend to favor consistent school testing to gauge academic progress and an emphasis on performance above seniority in determining teacher performance. MILITARY PARTICIPATION Latino involvement in the US Armed Services has increased from 3% in 1985 to 13% in Currently, they represent the 2nd largest minority among enlisted members - with African Americans comprising 18.3%. ENTREPRENEURSHIP Since 2007, Hispanic-owned businesses have grown by over 3.2 million - making Latinos the fastest growing demographic of business owners nationally. According to Forbes, the top 5 state for Latino business are: Texas (16.4%) California (15.7%) Florida (15.7%) New York (9.1%) Georgia (3.0%)

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5 CA Latino Voter Registration According to a 2015 PPIC study: Whites make up only 43 percent of California s adult population, but 60 percent of the state s likely voters. But Latinos comprise 34 percent of the adult (eligible voter) population, but just 18 percent of likely voters. Latino Likely Voters 6% Democrat Republican NPP Other 17% 18% 59%

6 CA Democrat Registration % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Democrat Registration

7 Latino Republicans In California, there are 677,431 Registered Latino Republicans - a universe that significantly outnumbers the total number of Republicans registered in a number of states. New Hampshire: 263,799 New Mexico: 367,613 Iowa: 646,710 Nevada: 488,608

8 The Rise of the Nonpartisan Voter looking closer at registration by city and by ethnicity we can see that this growth in NPP voters is coming on strongly in minority voter communities and, like all new registration, reflects predominantly younger voters. If our state voter file is seeing an influx of millennials and minorities, two bases of the Democratic Party, then anything other than a swelling of their registration numbers could be seen as losing ground CA120: Voter Registration: GOP death rattle or a missed opportunity for the Dems? Paul Mitchell

9 Voting Power in CA Non-white Republicans particularly Asians and Latinos have significantly more voting power when it comes to selecting presidential delegates than the average white Republican voter

10 Republican Presidential Preferences USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016 Latino Respondents Trump Cruz Kasich 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Unfavorable Total Favorable

11 Republican Presidential Preferences USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016 Latino Republican voters favor Ted Cruz over Donald Trump by a margin of 8 points. However, nearly a fifth of respondents indicated a preference for another candidate entirely. Another 12 percent remained either undecided or noted that they will not participate in the presidential election. Other 18% Undecided 9% Will Not Vote Refused 3% 6% Trump 26% Kasich 4% Cruz 34%

12 Trump and the Latino Voter USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016 All Respondents Favorable 23% Latino Respondents Favorable 9% NA/Neutral 4% NA/Neutral 4% Unfavorable 73% Unfavorable 87%

13 Democrat Presidential Preferences USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March A 2008 Pew Hispanic Center Report recorded that Hillary overwhelmingly won the Latino vote in that year s primary by a margin of over 2 to 1. Obama 32% Other 1% Clinton 67% Sanders 37% Undecide Not d Voting Other 8%Refused 1% 2% 1% Clinton 51% According to a USC Dornsife Poll released in March, Latino voters in California favor Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders by a margin of 13 points.

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15 Latino Elected Representation Senate Assembly County Supervisor City Council Latinos are consistently and significantly underrepresented at every level of government School Board 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

16 Latino Elected Representation School Board Representation & Gender Split 13 percent of elected K-12 School Board Members are 49% 48% Non- Latino School Board Members 52% 51% Latino Latino School Board Members Male Female

17 A LATINO BETWEEN THE AGES OF IS MORE LIKELY TO BE ARRESTED THAN TO

18 Socio-Economic Decline in Los Angeles County In comparing the Per Capita Personal Income over the last 50 years, San Francisco s numbers have increased at a much higher rate than Los Angeles, resulting in Los Angeles swift decline rank among other US Cities. While voting has dropped among all income levels, among the poor it has completely collapsed.

19 Participation Decline in Los Angeles 2,122,733 Voters Los Angeles Voter Turnout 68.0% 58.6% 55.2% This steep decline in per capita income and resulting increase in poverty levels is commensurate with a plummeting rate of voter participation, which is less than half the rate it was 40 years ago. When Jerry Brown first ran for election in 1978, 2,122,733 voters in Los Angeles County turned out to cast a vote. When he ran for reelection in 2014, only 1,518,835 voters turned out. 31.0% 1,518,835 Voters In the 36-year interim, the total population of the county increased by over 33% - from million to nearly 9.82 million but saw voter participation plummet by over 28%

20 LATINOS COMPRISE LESS THAN 5% OF THE HIGH TECH WORKFORCE The fastest growing and most dynamic sector of the economy is completely void of the fastest growing and most dynamic sector of the

21 THE ROOT CAUSE OF LOWER VOTER

22 Economic HOME OWNERSHIP Fewer than half 46 percent of Latino households are owneroccupied. In comparison, 57 percent of all California households statewide are owner-occupied. UNEMPLOYMENT Latino unemployment rates lag the general population in nearly every county in California. On average, Latino unemployment is 1.8 percent higher across the state s 58 counties.

23 A Closer Look: Los Angeles County Of the 37 counties in California with a Latino Population above 20%, Los Angeles County ranks: 5 th highest in Latino local elected representation, but 15 th in Unemployment at 12.4% 23 rd in Poverty at 23.2% 23 rd High School Dropout Rate with 3.7%, tied with Solano, Fresno, Kings, Kern Counties. 24 th in Registered Voter Turnout with 59.6% 30 th in Home Ownership at 38.7%

24 QUESTIONS? Mike Madrid,