Outlook for Natural Gas

Transcription

1 Outlook for Natural Gas for National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) Hydraulic fracturing webinar, Team Lead for Exploration and Production Analysis December 19, 212 U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

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3 States pages include EIA datasets and analysis on all fuels and energy infrastructure included in EIA data collection 3

4 EIA updates state level data sets with mapping features and energy infrastructure datasets Interactive map links to state level energy data 4

5 Multiple layers of user selected options are available such as shale gas plays, power plants, pipelines, and transmission lines 5

6 Henry Hub Natural Gas Price dollars per million btu Historical spot price STEO forecast price NYMEX futures price 95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval 95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval Jan 211 Jul 211 Jan 212 Jul 212 Jan 213 Jul 213 Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending December 6, 212. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts. Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 212 6

7 U.S. Natural Gas Prices dollars per thousand cubic feet 25 2 Residential price Henry Hub spot price Composite wellhead price Forecast Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan 21 Jan 211 Jan 212 Jan 213 Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 212 7

8 U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) annual change (bcf/d) Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis) U.S. net imports (right axis) Marketed production forecast (left axis) U.S. non-gulf of Mexico production (right axis) Total marketed production (left axis) Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 212 8

9 Natural gas prices increase over the outlook Henry Hub Spot Price 211 dollars per million Btu 12 History 211 Projections Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 9

10 Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Energy prices to the electric power sector 211 dollars per Btu 1 History 211 Projections Natural gas Coal Competitive parity History Projections Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 1

11 Currently, U.S. shale gas production comprises about 35% of total U.S. dry production Shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day Shale gas production (dry) trillion cubic feet per year Other U.S. shale gas Bakken (ND and MT) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) Haynesville (LA and TX) Woodford (OK) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Antrim (MI, IN, and OH) Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of November 212 that are converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play. 11

12 Domestic production grows rapidly over projection period, particularly natural gas and renewables, and liquids in the near term U.S. energy production quadrillion Btu History Shares of total U.S. production Projections 1 8 Natural gas 35% 6 4 3% 12% 19% Renewables Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids 14% 17% 2 28% Coal 24% 11% Nuclear 1% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 12

13 U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and a slow and extended economic recovery U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy 12 History Projections % 6% 8% 23% 26% 8% 8% 1% 2% Natural gas Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) Nuclear Liquid biofuels Coal 28% 11% 9% 2% 19% 2 39% 36% Oil and other liquids 32% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 13

14 Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 22 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet 35 History 211 Projections Consumption Domestic supply 1 5 Net imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 14

15 Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 24 in the AEO213 Reference case U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet Exports to Mexico Exports to Canada Lower 48 LNG exports Alaska LNG exports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 15

16 Shale gas production leads growth in production through 24 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet 35 History 211 Projections Shale gas 15 Non-associated offshore Tight gas 1 Coalbed methane Alaska 5 Associated with oil Non-associated onshore Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 16

17 Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35 3 History Projections *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel % Electric power % 33% 33% 3% 2% 6% 13% 12% 19% 14% Industrial* Gas to liquids Transportation** Commercial Residential Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 17

18 There are three main drivers of natural gas production Economics Geology Technology 18

19 Three drivers impact resource estimation metrics differently Theory Experiment Practice Thermal maturity Pressure Formation depth Geology Recompletions Drilling costs Technology Price of gas Economics Gas in Place (GIP) Technically Recoverable Resources (TRR) Economically Recoverable Resources (e.g. proved reserves) P Q Well-level data, incl. estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) 19

20 Technically recoverable natural gas resources continue longterm rise U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet 3, 2,5 2, Unproved shale gas Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) Proved reserves (all types and locations) *Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO29 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation. 2, ,5 1,479 1, AEO Edition Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 34 2

21 Steep decline curves for shale gas plays make the market more responsive to price million cubic feet per year 2, 1,5 Haynesville Eagle Ford Woodford Marcellus 1% 5% Cumulative production 1, Fayetteville % Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

22 Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) calculated from historical individual natural gas well data shows most wells are concentrated around mean. Fort Worth Basin natural gas bcf/well billion cubic feet/well maximum 75 th percentile mean median 25 th percentile Average EUR minimum Number of wells Source: EIA analysis, EUR = total projected production over 3 year life of wells 22

23 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Today In Energy Natural Gas Weekly Update States data Shale gas 23

24 Supplemental slides 24

25 Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours History 211 Projections % 11% 19% 25% 13% 19% Natural gas Renewables Nuclear 3% 16% 17% 1 53% 42% 35% Coal Oil and other liquids 4% 1% 1% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 25

26 Natural gas and renewables account for the vast majority of capacity additions from 212 to 24 U.S. cumulative capacity additions gigawatts Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 26

27 Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast majority of capacity additions from 211 to 24 Wind 45 (4%) Hydropower* 11 (1%) Other renewables 15 (1%) Nuclear 11 (1%) 211 capacity Capacity additions 212 to 24 Nuclear Hydropower* 11 (3%) 2 (1%) Coal 8 (2%) Coal Other renewables End-use coal 315 (3%) 58 (17%) 1 (.4%) Other.4 (.1%) 1,55 gigawatts Wind 42 (13%) 339 gigawatts Natural gas 413 (39%) End-use coal 4 (.4%) Other 59 (6%) Natural gas 215 (64%) * Includes pumped storage Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 211 and Annual Energy Outlook 213 Early Release 27