Peter Thorne, CICS-NC, NCSU and NOAA s National Climatic Data Centre 3/12/12 Towards an integrated atmospheric observing system in Europe

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1 Peter Thorne, CICS-NC, NCSU and NOAA s National Climatic Data Centre 3/12/12 Towards an integrated atmospheric observing system in Europe 1

2 Monitoring is science s Cinderella, unloved and poorly paid. Sustaining a long-term, ground-based programme that demands high analytical skills remains challenging. Funding agencies are seduced either by pure notions of basic science as hypothesis testing or by the satanic mills of commercial reward. Neither motive fosters dull monitoring because meeting severe analytical demands is not seen as a worthwhile investment. Nature, 450, , doi: /450789a 2

3 A climate scientist at CICS, Asheville, North Carolina Co-chair of the Global Climate Observing System Working Group on the GCOS Reference Upper Air Network ( Chair of the International Surface Temperature Initiative ( Lead Author on atmospheric observations chapter of WG1 IPCC AR5 Lead Author on climate science chapter of US National Climate Assessment 3

4 Anna Mikalsen, GCOS secretariat Geir Braathen, NDACC / WMO Greg Bodeker, GRUAN co-chair Holger Voemel, GRUAN Lead Centre Howard Diamond, US GCOS Office Oksana Tarasova, WMO Liisa Jalkanen, WMO Jessica Blunden / Deke Arndt, NCDC 4

5 What we need to measure How well we need to measure Where we need to measure What tools we have at our disposal What the very real limitations are A tiered system of systems approach Reference / research quality networks Long-term baseline networks More spatially complete measurements Importance of monitoring for the long-term 5

6 To understand the atmospheric system requires an understanding of the interconnectedness between physical, chemical, biological, terrestrial, oceanic, cryospheric and atmospheric components. If we do not observe enough aspects (strands) well enough and on a sustained basis then our collective understanding of this interconnected web suffers. 6

7 OCEANIC Surface (10) Sea-surface temperature Sea-surface salinity Sea level Sea state Sea ice Surface current Ocean colour Carbon dioxide partial pressure Ocean acidity Phytoplankton Sub-surface (8) Temperature Salinity Current Nutrients Carbon dioxide partial pressure Ocean acidity Oxygen Tracers ATMOSPHERIC Composition (3) Carbon dioxide Methane and other long-lived greenhouse gases Ozone and Aerosol supported by their precursors Upper-air (5) Temperature Wind speed and direction Water vapour Cloud properties Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance) Surface (6) Air temperature Wind speed and direction Water vapour Pressure Precipitation Surface radiation budget TERRESTRIAL Biological/Ecological (6) Land cover FAPAR Leaf area index Above ground biomass Soil carbon Fire disturbance Hydrological (5) River discharge Water use Ground water Lakes Soil moisture Cryospheric (4) Snow cover Glaciers and ice caps Ice sheets Permafrost Albedo Other (1) These are the GCOS essential climate variables a large minimum set of properties 7

8 Heat waves cause excess deaths, large portion due to air pollution Heat wave in Europe summer 2003: extra deaths, about % due to air pollution More ozone: High T favors production of O 3 Low RH reduces destruction of O 3 Less dry removal through vegetation (T, no precipitation) Biogenic precursor emissions higher (isoprene) Stable meteorological situation with no clouds (containment of pollutants and favorable for photochemistry) 8

9 Sadly, this is not simple there is no single answer and trying to find one is a fools errand that pleases nobody Application area specific (mean state, trend, variability, process, time and space scale-dependent etc.) Critically dependent upon the properties of the measurand in question But in general we need to measure with an uncertainty less than 10% of the expected signal of interest If we expect a trend of 0.2K/decade we should aim to characterize within +/-0.02K/decade If we want to know a process with a sigma of 0.1K our random uncertainty component needs to be +/-0.01K 9

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11 Atmosphere does not know or care about geopolitical boundaries. This does not mean Europe needs to fund all global observations but those observations taken in Europe or under European funding auspices cannot be designed in a void or be hoarded if real value is to accrue from their being taken. 11

12 Potential climate tipping points Permafrost regions (emissions) Ice sheets Rainforests etc. Areas where atmospheric impacts / risk are high Areas / phenomena which may be precursors to extreme atmospheric events Areas of complex orography Areas with complex physical / chemical interactions 12

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14 We can observe a large component of the atmospheric system already Much of this capability has multi-decadal or even multi-centennial heritage In many cases we can measure the same measurand multiple different ways There exists a wealth of literature that details the derivation and use of these data in a plethora of application areas. BUT 14

15 We do not have an infinite supply of funds to throw at the problem so we need to make the very best use of the finite support that exists or can be leveraged. 15

16 Numerous stakeholders Government Business Academia International All with best of intentions, but Inevitable conflicts, waste and lack of synergies Lack of holistic data access and discovery Lack of interoperability across and between measurement programs 16

17 Rob Peter to pay Paul English proverb To take from one merely to give to another; to discharge one debt by incurring another. 17

18 Measurements of the real world are not repeatable samples we cannot reduce random uncertainty by repeat sampling of a measurand that is spatiotemporally varying Measurements in the field have a host of challenges Environmental limitations Costs Accessability Even fauna 18

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20 To make measurements through an unbroken chain of traceability to SI units is hard and expensive Metadata about the measurements is often missing and almost always inadequate we don t know a priori everything we may need to know in the future to understand the measurements Need to better entrain metrological community to improve measurement characterization and performance. 20

21 When structural uncertainties in tropospheric trends are as large as the emerging trend itself we are in trouble, particularly when it comes to testing the veracity of global climate models. Where is the truth? 21

22 Arguably, yes, much better Recognize that there are diverse user needs and not every observation need be perfect But enough had better be as near to perfect as we can possibly make them Observations of different strands of the connected physical / chemical / biological atmospheric system themselves need to be better connected Observations must be undertaken in a sustainable manner this is important for more than just climate as you never know what phenomena may occur when and where. 22

23 Comprehensive networks take observations at the more-detailed space and time scales needed to fully describe the nature, variability and change of specific variables (incl. satellite missions) Baseline networks: a minimum number of appropriatelydistributed sites to provide globallyrepresentative, high-quality data records of key climate variables for monitoring global trends Reference quality networks provide highly-detailed and accurate observations at a few locations globally, primarily for calibration and research purposes. Such high quality observations should be collocated so we can better understand interconnectedness in the system. Cascade of Networks It is technically unfeasible and economically impractical to make absolutely all observations reference quality or for the longterm. We need a sustained mix of different types of observations and to integrate them. 23

24 GCOS Reference Upper Air Network Network for ground-based reference observations for climate in the free atmosphere in the framework of GCOS Currently 16 stations, envisaged to be a network of sites across the globe Ny Alesund See for more detail 24

25 Maintain observations over decades for long-term monitoring Validate satellite systems Characterization of the atmospheric column characteristics and processes Long-term stability through managed change Validate observations through deliberate measurement redundancy Priority 1: Water vapor, temperature, (pressure and wind) Priority 2: Ozone, clouds, 25

26 A GRUAN reference observation: Is traceable to an SI unit or an accepted standard Provides a comprehensive uncertainty analysis Is documented in accessible literature Is validated (e.g. by intercomparison or redundant observations) Includes complete metadata description 26

27 Uncertainty of input data Traceable sensor calibration Transparent processing algorithm Best estimate + Uncertainty Black box software Proprietary methods Literature: Disregarded systematic effects Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM, 1980) Reference Quality Upper-Air Measurements: Guidance for developing GRUAN data products, Immler et al. (2010), Atmos. Meas. Techn. 27

28 Error is replaced by uncertainty Important to distinguish contributions from systematic error and random error A measurement is described by a range of values m is corrected for systematic errors u is random uncertainty generally expressed by m ± u Literature: Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM, 1980) Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Observation, WMO 2006, (CIMO Guide) Reference Quality Upper-Air Measurements: Guidance for developing GRUAN data products, Immler et al. (2010), Atmos. Meas. Techn. 28

29 Example GRUAN measurement profile of atmospheric moisture profile with quantified corrections and uncertainties open and transparent. More at including link to data (thus far just RS-92 sonde but more to come) 29

30 NOAAs Benchmark USA Climate Observing Network Designed to answer questions about National Temperature & Precipitation changes with the highest confidence 114 CONUS stations at pristine sites; shouldn t change in >50 years Triple configuration temp. & precip. sensors & other measurements Real time data and equipment monitoring Observations every 5-minutes Hourly satellite data transmissions Meets or Exceeds GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles Follows NIST calibration standards 30

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32 Climate Reference Network Station for National-Level Climate Monitoring (Cornell University, Ithaca, New York) 3-wire weighing precipitation gauge with backup gauge inside a large wind fence with single alter. Satellite com antenna Relative Humidity Power Solar Radiation (Pyranometer) Surface IR Temperature Three High-Precision Platinum Resistance Thermometers in Individual Ventilated Radiation Housings Datalogger Anemometer Wetness Sensor Soil Moisture & Soil Temperature Sensors 32

33 Immediate Fault Detection in USCRN (triplicate sensor configuration) 33

34 More organic network with most of the processing and priorities set by the sites Still aim for highest quality, well understood measurements Many of the longest running and most valuable measurement series of composition change arise from NDACC affiliated sites. 34

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38 The atmospheric system has never been in steady state Our knowledge of the system is incomplete We do not fully understand the impacts of what we may do We do not fully understand how different aspects of the system may co-vary, particularly locally / regionally Unless we monitor, analyze, reanalyze and question on a sustained basis there are risks not sufficient solely to fund observations, need sufficient sustained funding to analyze those observations taken. As anthropogenic climate change effects increase the economic implications will increase. Need to provide best adaptation and mitigation advice is nixed if the observational basis is too uncertain 38

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41 (NCDC Graphics Team (above), John Kennedy, Met Office Hadley Centre (right)) 41

42 In early 1980s measurements of TCO at Halley were seen as some weird measurements in a weird place far away from Europe Little attention paid to automated screening of low values We all know the rest! Not sufficient to solely observe need to also critically analyse. 42

43 Stratospheric chlorine burden seems to be decreasing as expected as a result of Montreal Protocol. Q. Job done. Should we reallocate the observational resource? 43

44 A. Emphatically NO! Why is the Cl burden now increasing again? If we do not observe we never know. Ignorance bliss 44

45 The multi-annual to decadal variability in methane burdens is still poorly understood. Where are the sources, where are the sinks, how are they varying? 45

46 Atmosphere: Surface Atmosphere: Upper-Air Atmosphere: Composition Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial Air Temperature Earth Rad n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow & Ice Cover Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost Sfc Rad n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water Sulfur Hexafluorides CO 2 Partial Pressure Perfluorocarbons Aerosol Properties Lake Levels Albedo Land Cover Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Leaf Area Index Biomass Fire Disturbance This reflects availability of global long-term near real-time data products not indicative across all space or time domains or applications climate monitoring specific. Also does not reflect fundamental observational quality. 46

47 A robust observing framework should be: Sustainable Integrated Discoverable Useable Calibrated Comprehensive Open Transparent Applied globally 47

48 Through a system of systems approach Sustained reference / research quality observations made in a coordinated (and co-located) manner that are interoperable with the remainder of the observing network will, if implemented, successfully underpin all aspects of our understanding of the atmospheric system and its evolution. 48

49 To understand the atmospheric system requires an understanding of the interconnectedness between physical, chemical, biological, terrestrial, oceanic, cryospheric and atmospheric components. If we do not observe enough aspects (strands) well enough and on a sustained basis then our collective understanding of this interconnected web suffers. 49