The Basics of Supply and Demand

Transcription

1 C H A P T E R 2 The Basics of Supply and Demand Prepared by: Fernando & Yvonn Quijano

2 CHAPTER 2 OUTLINE 2.1 Supply and Demand 2.2 The Market Mechanism 2.3 Changes in Market Equilibrium 2.4 Elasticities of Supply and Demand 2.5 Short-Run versus Long-Run Elasticities 2.6 Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions 2.7 Effects of Government Intervention 2 of 52

3 The Basics of Supply and Demand Supply-demand analysis is a fundamental and powerful tool that can be applied to a wide variety of interesting and important problems. To name a few: Understanding and predicting how changing world economic conditions affect market price and production Evaluating the impact of government price controls, minimum wages, price supports, and production incentives Determining how taxes, subsidies, tariffs, and import quotas affect consumers and producers 3 of 52

4 2.1 SUPPLY AND DEMAND The Supply Curve supply curve Relationship between the quantity of a good that producers are willing to sell and the price of the good. Figure 2.1 Q Q ( P ) S S The Supply Curve The supply curve, labeled S in the figure, shows how the quantity of a good offered for sale changes as the price of the good changes. The supply curve is upward sloping: The higher the price, the more firms are able and willing to produce and sell. If production costs fall, firms can produce the same quantity at a lower price or a larger quantity at the same price. The supply curve then shifts to the right (from S to S ). 4 of 52

5 2.1 SUPPLY AND DEMAND The Supply Curve Other Variables That Affect Supply The quantity supplied can depend on other variables besides price. For example: The quantity that producers are willing to sell depends not only on the price they receive but also on their production costs, including wages, interest charges, and the costs of raw materials. When production costs decrease, output increases no matter what the market price happens to be. The entire supply curve thus shifts to the right. Economists often use the phrase change in supply to refer to shifts in the supply curve, while reserving the phrase change in the quantity supplied to apply to movements along the supply curve. 5 of 52

6 2.1 SUPPLY AND DEMAND The Demand Curve demand curve Relationship between the quantity of a good that consumers are willing to buy and the price of the good. Q Q ( P) Figure 2.2 The Demand Curve D D The demand curve, labeled D, shows how the quantity of a good demanded by consumers depends on its price. The demand curve is downward sloping; holding other things equal, consumers will want to purchase more of a good as its price goes down. The quantity demanded may also depend on other variables, such as income, the weather, and the prices of other goods. For most products, the quantity demanded increases when income rises. A higher income level shifts the demand curve to the right (from D to D ). 6 of 52

7 2.1 SUPPLY AND DEMAND The Demand Curve Shifting the Demand Curve If the market price were held constant, we would expect to see an increase in the quantity demanded as a result of consumers higher incomes. Because this increase would occur no matter what the market price, the result would be a shift to the right of the entire demand curve. Substitute and Complementary Goods substitutes Two goods for which an increase in the price of one leads to an increase in the quantity demanded of the other. complements Two goods for which an increase in the price of one leads to a decrease in the quantity demanded of the other. 7 of 52

8 2.2 THE MARKET MECHANISM Equilibrium equilibrium (or market clearing) price Price that equates the quantity supplied to the quantity demanded. market mechanism Tendency in a free market for price to change until the market clears. 8 of 52

9 2.2 THE MARKET MECHANISM Figure 2.3 Supply and Demand The market clears at price P 0 and quantity Q 0. At the higher price P 1, a surplus develops, so price falls. At the lower price P 2, there is a shortage, so price is bid up. surplus Situation in which the quantity supplied exceeds the quantity demanded. shortage Situation in which the quantity demanded exceeds the quantity supplied. 9 of 52

10 2.2 THE MARKET MECHANISM When Can We Use the Supply-Demand Model? We are assuming that at any given price, a given quantity will be produced and sold. This assumption makes sense only if a market is at least roughly competitive. By this we mean that both sellers and buyers should have little market power i.e., little ability individually to affect the market price. Suppose that supply were controlled by a single producer. If the demand curve shifts in a particular way, it may be in the monopolist s interest to keep the quantity fixed but change the price, or to keep the price fixed and change the quantity. 10 of 52

11 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM Figure 2.4 New Equilibrium Following Shift in Supply When the supply curve shifts to the right, the market clears at a lower price P 3 and a larger quantity Q of 52

12 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM Figure 2.5 New Equilibrium Following Shift in Demand When the demand curve shifts to the right, the market clears at a higher price P 3 and a larger quantity Q of 52

13 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM Figure 2.6 New Equilibrium Following Shifts in Supply and Demand Supply and demand curves shift over time as market conditions change. In this example, rightward shifts of the supply and demand curves lead to a slightly higher price and a much larger quantity. In general, changes in price and quantity depend on the amount by which each curve shifts and the shape of each curve. 13 of 52

14 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM From 1970 to 2007, the real (constant-dollar) price of eggs fell by 49 percent, while the real price of a college education rose by 105 percent. The mechanization of poultry farms sharply reduced the cost of producing eggs, shifting the supply curve downward. The demand curve for eggs shifted to the left as a more health-conscious population tended to avoid egg. As for college, increases in the costs of equipping and maintaining modern classrooms, laboratories, and libraries, along with increases in faculty salaries, pushed the supply curve up. The demand curve shifted to the right as a larger percentage of a growing number of high school graduates decided that a college education was essential. 14 of 52

15 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM Figure 2.6 Market for Eggs (a) The supply curve for eggs shifted downward as production costs fell; the demand curve shifted to the left as consumer preferences changed. As a result, the real price of eggs fell sharply and egg consumption rose. 15 of 52

16 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM Figure 2.7 Market for College Education (b) The supply curve for a college education shifted up as the costs of equipment, maintenance, and staffing rose. The demand curve shifted to the right as a growing number of high school graduates desired a college education. As a result, both price and enrollments rose sharply. 16 of 52

17 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM Over the past two decades, the wages of skilled high-income workers have grown substantially, while the wages of unskilled low-income workers have fallen slightly. From 1978 to 2005, people in the top 20 percent of the income distribution experienced an increase in their average real pretax household income of 50 percent, while those in the bottom 20 percent saw their average real pretax income increase by only 6 percent. While the supply of skilled workers has grown slowly, the demand has risen dramatically, pushing wages up. 17 of 52

18 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM Figure 2.8 Consumption and Price of Copper Although annual consumption of copper has increased about a hundredfold, the real (inflationadjusted) price has not changed much. 18 of 52

19 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM Figure 2.9 Long-Run Movements of Supply and Demand for Mineral Resources Although demand for most resources has increased dramatically over the past century, prices have fallen or risen only slightly in real (inflation-adjusted) terms because cost reductions have shifted the supply curve to the right just as dramatically. 19 of 52

20 2.3 CHANGES IN MARKET EQUILIBRIUM Figure 2.10 Supply and Demand for New York City Office Space Following 9/11 the supply curve shifted to the left, but the demand curve also shifted to the left, so that the average rental price fell. 20 of 52

21 2.4 ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND elasticity Percentage change in one variable resulting from a 1-percent increase in another. Price Elasticity of Demand price elasticity of demand Percentage change in quantity demanded of a good resulting from a 1-percent increase in its price. (2.1) 21 of 52

22 2.4 ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND Linear Demand Curve linear demand curve Demand curve that is a straight line. Figure 2.11 Linear Demand Curve The price elasticity of demand depends not only on the slope of the demand curve but also on the price and quantity. The elasticity, therefore, varies along the curve as price and quantity change. Slope is constant for this linear demand curve. Near the top, because price is high and quantity is small, the elasticity is large in magnitude. The elasticity becomes smaller as we move down the curve. 22 of 52

23 2.4 ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND Linear Demand Curve Figure 2.12 (a) Infinitely Elastic Demand For a horizontal demand curve, ΔQ/ΔP is infinite. Because a tiny change in price leads to an enormous change in demand, the elasticity of demand is infinite. infinitely elastic demand Principle that consumers will buy as much of a good as they can get at a single price, but for any higher price the quantity demanded drops to zero, while for any lower price the quantity demanded increases without limit. 23 of 52

24 2.4 ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND Linear Demand Curve Figure 2.12 (b) Completely Inelastic Demand For a vertical demand curve, ΔQ/ΔP is zero. Because the quantity demanded is the same no matter what the price, the elasticity of demand is zero. completely inelastic demand Principle that consumers will buy a fixed quantity of a good regardless of its price. 24 of 52

25 2.4 ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND Other Demand Elasticities income elasticity of demand Percentage change in the quantity demanded resulting from a 1-percent increase in income. (2.2) cross-price elasticity of demand Percentage change in the quantity demanded of one good resulting from a 1-percent increase in the price of another. (2.3) Elasticities of Supply price elasticity of supply Percentage change in quantity supplied resulting from a 1-percent increase in price. 25 of 52

26 2.4 ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND Point versus Arc Elasticities point elasticity of demand point on the demand curve. Price elasticity at a particular Arc Elasticity of Demand arc elasticity of demand range of prices. Price elasticity calculated over a (2.4) 26 of 52

27 2.4 ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND For a few decades, changes in the wheat market had major implications for both American farmers and U.S. agricultural policy. To understand what happened, let s examine the behavior of supply and demand beginning in By setting the quantity supplied equal to the quantity demanded, we can determine the market-clearing price of wheat for 1981: 27 of 52

28 2.4 ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND Substituting into the supply curve equation, we get We use the demand curve to find the price elasticity of demand: Thus demand is inelastic. We can likewise calculate the price elasticity of supply: Because these supply and demand curves are linear, the price elasticities will vary as we move along the curves. 28 of 52

29 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Demand Figure 2.13 (a) Gasoline: Short-Run and Long-Run Demand Curves In the short run, an increase in price has only a small effect on the quantity of gasoline demanded. Motorists may drive less, but they will not change the kinds of cars they are driving overnight. In the longer run, however, because they will shift to smaller and more fuelefficient cars, the effect of the price increase will be larger. Demand, therefore, is more elastic in the long run than in the short run. 29 of 52

30 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Demand Demand and Durability Figure 2.13 (b) Automobiles: Short-Run and Long-Run Demand Curves The opposite is true for automobile demand. If price increases, consumers initially defer buying new cars; thus annual quantity demanded falls sharply. In the longer run, however, old cars wear out and must be replaced; thus annual quantity demanded picks up. Demand, therefore, is less elastic in the long run than in the short run. 30 of 52

31 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Demand Income Elasticities Income elasticities also differ from the short run to the long run. For most goods and services foods, beverages, fuel, entertainment, etc. the income elasticity of demand is larger in the long run than in the short run. For a durable good, the opposite is true. The short-run income elasticity of demand will be much larger than the long-run elasticity. 31 of 52

32 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Demand Cyclical Industries cyclical industries Industries in which sales tend to magnify cyclical changes in gross domestic product and national income. Figure 2.14 GDP and Investment in Durable Equipment Annual growth rates are compared for GDP and investment in durable equipment. Because the short-run GDP elasticity of demand is larger than the long-run elasticity for long-lived capital equipment, changes in investment in equipment magnify changes in GDP. Thus capital goods industries are considered cyclical. 32 of 52

33 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Demand Cyclical Industries Figure 2.15 Consumption of Durables versus Nondurables Annual growth rates are compared for GDP, consumer expenditures on durable goods (automobiles, appliances, furniture, etc.), and consumer expenditures on nondurable goods (food, clothing, services, etc.). Because the stock of durables is large compared with annual demand, short-run demand elasticities are larger than long-run elasticities. Like capital equipment, industries that produce consumer durables are cyclical (i.e., changes in GDP are magnified). This is not true for producers of nondurables. 33 of 52

34 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Demand TABLE 2.1 Demand for Gasoline Number of Years Allowed to Pass Following a Price or Income Change Elasticity Price Income TABLE 2.2 Demand for Automobiles Number of Years Allowed to Pass Following a Price or Income Change Elasticity Price Income of 52

35 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Supply Supply and Durability Figure 2.16 Copper: Short-Run and Long-Run Supply Curves Like that of most goods, the supply of primary copper, shown in part (a), is more elastic in the long run. If price increases, firms would like to produce more but are limited by capacity constraints in the short run. In the longer run, they can add to capacity and produce more. 35 of 52

36 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Supply Supply and Durability Figure 2.16 Copper: Short-Run and Long-Run Supply Curves Part (b) shows supply curves for secondary copper. If the price increases, there is a greater incentive to convert scrap copper into new supply. Initially, therefore, secondary supply (i.e., supply from scrap) increases sharply. But later, as the stock of scrap falls, secondary supply contracts. Secondary supply is therefore less elastic in the long run than in the short run. Table 2.3 Supply of Copper Price Elasticity of: Short-Run Long-Run Primary supply Secondary supply Total supply of 52

37 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Figure 2.17 Price of Brazilian Coffee When droughts or freezes damage Brazil s coffee trees, the price of coffee can soar. The price usually falls again after a few years, as demand and supply adjust. 37 of 52

38 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Figure 2.18 Supply and Demand for Coffee (a) A freeze or drought in Brazil causes the supply curve to shift to the left. In the short run, supply is completely inelastic; only a fixed number of coffee beans can be harvested. Demand is also relatively inelastic; consumers change their habits only slowly. As a result, the initial effect of the freeze is a sharp increase in price, from P 0 to P of 52

39 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Figure 2.18 Supply and Demand for Coffee (b) In the intermediate run, supply and demand are both more elastic; thus price falls part of the way back, to P of 52

40 2.5 SHORT-RUN VERSUS LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES Figure 2.18 Supply and Demand for Coffee (c) In the long run, supply is extremely elastic; because new coffee trees will have had time to mature, the effect of the freeze will have disappeared. Price returns to P of 52

41 2.6 UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS Figure 2.19 Fitting Linear Supply and Demand Curves to Data Linear supply and demand curves provide a convenient tool for analysis. Given data for the equilibrium price and quantity P* and Q*, as well as estimates of the elasticities of demand and supply E D and E S, we can calculate the parameters c and d for the supply curve and a and b for the demand curve. (In the case drawn here, c < 0.) The curves can then be used to analyze the behavior of the market quantitatively. 41 of 52

42 2.6 UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS Demand: Q = a bp Supply: Q = c + dp (2.5a) (2.5b) Step 1: E = (P/Q)(ΔQ/ΔP) Demand: E D = b(p*/q*) Supply: E S = d(p*/q*) (2.6a) (2.6b) Step 2: a = Q* + bp* Q = a bp + fi (2.7) 42 of 52

43 2.6 UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS After reaching a level of about $1.00 per pound in 1980, the price of copper fell sharply to about 60 cents per pound in Worldwide recessions in 1980 and 1982 contributed to the decline of copper prices. Why did the price increase sharply in ? First, the demand for copper from China and other Asian countries began increasing dramatically. Second, because prices had dropped so much from 1996 through 2003, producers closed unprofitable mines and cut production. What would a decline in demand do to the price of copper? To find out, we can use linear supply and demand curves. 43 of 52

44 2.6 UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS Figure 2.20 Copper Prices, Copper prices are shown in both nominal (no adjustment for inflation) and real (inflation-adjusted) terms. In real terms, copper prices declined steeply from the early 1970s through the mid-1980s as demand fell. In , copper prices rose in response to supply disruptions caused by strikes in Peru and Canada but later fell after the strikes ended. Prices declined during the period but then increased sharply during of 52

45 2.6 UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS Figure 2.21 Copper Supply and Demand The shift in the demand curve corresponding to a 20-percent decline in demand leads to a percent decline in price. 45 of 52

46 2.6 UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS Since the early 1970s, the world oil market has been buffeted by the OPEC cartel and by political turmoil in the Persian Gulf. Figure 2.22 Price of Crude Oil The OPEC cartel and political events caused the price of oil to rise sharply at times. It later fell as supply and demand adjusted. 46 of 52

47 2.6 UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS Because this example is set in , all prices are measured in 2005 dollars. Here are some rough figures: world price = $50 per barrel World demand and total supply = 34 billion barrels per year (bb/yr) OPEC supply = 14 bb/yr Competitive (non-opec) supply = 20 bb/yr The following table gives price elasticity estimates for oil supply and demand: Short-Run Long-Run World Demand: Competitive Supply: of 52

48 2.6 UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS Figure 2.23 Impact of Saudi Production Cut The total supply is the sum of competitive (non-opec) supply and the 14 bb/yr of OPEC supply. Part (a) shows the short-run supply and demand curves. If Saudi Arabia stops producing, the supply curve will shift to the left by 3 bb/yr. In the short-run, price will increase sharply. 48 of 52

49 2.6 UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS Figure 2.23 Impact of Saudi Production Cut The total supply is the sum of competitive (non-opec) supply and the 14 bb/yr of OPEC supply. Part (b) shows long-run curves. In the long run, because demand and competitive supply are much more elastic, the impact on price will be much smaller. 49 of 52

50 2.7 EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION PRICE CONTROLS Figure 2.24 Effects of Price Controls Without price controls, the market clears at the equilibrium price and quantity P 0 and Q 0. If price is regulated to be no higher than P max, the quantity supplied falls to Q 1, the quantity demanded increases to Q 2, and a shortage develops. 50 of 52

51 2.7 EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION PRICE CONTROLS Figure 2.25 Price of Natural Gas 51 of 52

52 2.7 EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION PRICE CONTROLS The (free-market) wholesale price of natural gas was $6.40 per mcf (thousand cubic feet). Production and consumption of gas were 23 Tcf (trillion cubic feet). The average price of crude oil (which affects the supply and demand for natural gas) was about $50 per barrel. Supply: Demand: Q = P G + 0.5P O Q = P G P O Substitute $3.00 for P G in both the supply and demand equations (keeping the price of oil, P O, fixed at $50). You should find that the supply equation gives a quantity supplied of 20.6 Tcf and the demand equation a quantity demanded of 23.6 Tcf. Therefore, these price controls would create an excess demand of = 3.0 Tcf. 52 of 52