Terrorist Attack Assessment: Paris November 2015 & Brussels March 2016

Transcription

1 Terrorist Attack Assessment: Paris November 2015 & Brussels March 2016 Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada Department of Economics Faculty of Economics & Administration University of Malaya Evangelos Koutronas Social Security Research Centre (SSRC) Faculty of Economics & Administration University of Malaya May 26, 2016

2 Map of terrorist attacks in Paris November 2015 Fatalities: 128 Casualties: 368 At least two explosions near national stadium where France Germany friendly soccer match was being played, attended by the President Hollande (21:15 p.m. 21:20 p.m.) At the pizzeria Coza Nostra 5 people killed A second team attacked the bar and the restaurant where 15 people killed. At the café Comptoir Voltaire 15 people injured Terrorist execute up to 100 hostages during Eagles of Death Metal Concert. 89 people killed. The Same team attacked the restaurant Belle Equipe where 19 people killed on the terrace.

3 Map of terrorist attacks in Brussels March 2016 Fatalities: 32 Casualties: 300

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5 Number of Terrorist Incidents in Western Europe (15,709) Global Terrorism Data Base, 2016

6 Global Terrorism Data Base, 2016

7 Number of Terrorist Incidents in Eastern Europe (4204) Global Terrorism Data Base, 2016

8 Global Terrorism Data Base, 2016

9 Map of terrorist attacks in Europe, North Africa and Middle East after 9/

10 The Purpose of the Paper Empirical evidence suggests that terrorist incidents entail indirect costs that go beyond the inflicted casualties and material damages. Such severe shocks, concentrated in time, can cause major disruption on specific sectors of the economy. This paper formulates an analytical framework for estimating the economic consequences of terrorist attacks, both in terms of immediate policy response in the aftermath of the attacks and of medium-term policy implications for regulatory, trade and fiscal policy.

11 Examples of Collateral Economic Losses USS Cole bombing (2000): Yemen s shipping industry experienced substantial losses. The 300 percent increase in insurance premiums diverted half of Yemen s port activity in Djibouti and Oman. Mumbai 2008: the rating agencies downgraded India as an investment destination. As a result, foreign investors withdrew 13.5 billion dollars from the capital market, contributing to the 56 percent fall in the main Bombay Stock Exchange index.

12 What is ISIS? The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), often translated as Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and accordingly also commonly known as ISIS, is a Salafi jihadist militant group that follows an Islamic fundamentalist, Wahhabi doctrine of Sunni Islam. The group has declared that it is restoring the Islamic Caliphate, renaming itself as simply the Islamic State (IS) and naming leader Abu Bakr al-baghdadi as Caliph. As a caliphate, it claims religious, political and military authority over all Muslims worldwide.

13 Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan US Invasion of Iraq Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) founded October Al-Baghdadi announces merger and IS is formed, rejected by al-jawlani: April Bin Laden s announces his Declaration of War against the Crusader-Zionist alliance : February Jabhat al-nusra releases first official statement as an organization: January Al-Qaeda founding documents Attacks against US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania: August World Trade Center Attacks 9/11 US Invasion of Afghanistan October Bin Laden s Letter to America circulates November Al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) form January Bin Laden killed in Pakistan: May Osama bin Laden and Abu Allah Azzam form Maktab al-khadamat 1984 Operation Desert Shield ISIS AL-QAEDA Soviet invasion in Afghanistan Saltman & Winter, 2014 Abu Musab al- Zarqawi travels to Afghanistan Al-Zarqawi returns to Jordan Al-Zarqawi imprisoned on terror charges Jama at al- Tawhid wa-l- Jihad founded Al-Zarqawi out of prison in general amnesty and travels to Afghanistan Majlis Shura al- Mujahidi n fi-l- Iraq founded January Al- Zarqawi killed in US air strike June Islamic State of Iraq forms (ISI): October IS takes control of Mosul: 10 June IS announces caliphate: 28 June

14 Source: Thorp, Gene, and Swati Sharma Fighters to Syria. The Washington Post January 27.

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16 The economic impact of terrorist attack model(eita-model) The proposed analytical framework models a Bayesian multidimensional subset, involving interactive decision making with diverging interests. Three-phase terrorist activity: (i) monitoring and trend of terrorist attack groups; (ii) the terrorist attack group behavior; and (iii) the final economic impact after a terrorist attack group. Five alternative risk indicators for the estimation of terrorist attacks: (i) the maximum level of terrorist group attack targets (φ ); (ii) terrorist group attack destruction (-π); (iii) economic terrorist wear (W); (iv) economic desgrowth (-δ); and (v) the multidimensional graphical sub-strategic national security sector analysis.

17 The economic impact of terrorist attack model(eita-model) Real Gross City Product (G): a monetary measure of the value of all final goods and services produced in a period (quarterly or yearly) in a specific geographical space that keeps its landmark and autonomy (jurisprudence and law). Real G estimates are commonly used to determine the economic performance of a region, and to make international comparisons. Average economic leaking (τ): an economic indicator that measures the collateral costs derived by a terrorist attack. The economic leaking indicator is based on 16 variables: i.e. active population (15-65); unemployment; total capital formation; capital formation from foreign firms; natural resources; land demand for agriculture; technology imports; technology growth rate; national budget; international debts-to-payment ratio; military expenditures; event destruction; natural disaster event growth rate; government income tax; corruption growth rate; poverty growth rate; human capital immigration growth rate; pollution growth rate; CO2 growth rate; international reserves; food imports; violence growth rate Inter-linkage coordinate space: a multi-dimensional radar mapping model is a multidimensional coordinate system.

18 Inter-linkage coordinate space

19 Methodology Purpose of the Analysis: Investigate the recent terrorist attacks in Paris November 2015 and in Brussels March The Model: We employ Nash s Bargaining Framework. We used the 9 main variables and 250 sub-variables of the 16 main variables and 550 sub-variables available by model algorithm. Method used: Calibration Data Analysis and Collection: Dataset was provided by a certain European Government, that cannot be disclosed due to confidentiality. Suggested Software: Mathematica Wolfram version 10 language programming

20 The Application of EITA-Model on the Paris Terrorist Attacks in November 2015

21 The Application of EITA-Model on the Brussels Terrorist Attacks in March 2016

22 We employed qualitative and quantitative data from 100 different domestic and international institutions. We run 500 random and fuzzy simulations based on different conflict scenarios across the European Union to identify the drivers of potential targets in an extended time framework (2000 to 2026). Potential Targets: Stockholm Amsterdam Berlin London Copenhagen Mega-hit: London Measurement of Possible Attacks in Europe Union

23 Five Year Plan for ISIS Caliphate

24 Thank you