Early Warning Systems

Transcription

1 Early Warning Systems Presented by Bureau of School Improvement Differentiated Accountability Region V Summer

2 How familiar is your school with Early Warning Systems? My school is not familiar with EWS My school is familiar with EWS My school collects EWS data My school utilizes EWS for problem solving and to inform decision making 2

3 EWS Critical Questions 1. What is an EWS? 2. Why do we need an EWS? 3. What data is used for an EWS? 4. How do I organize the data to identify systems in need of intervention? 5. How do I use student level data to identify students who are off track and possible system issues? 3

4 EWS Critical Question What is an EWS? 4

5 An Early Warning System A System which: Utilizes predictive data Identifies off-track or at-risk students Targets interventions Reveals patterns and root causes Florida PS/RtI Project 5

6 Planning for Implementation: Organizational Structure of a School Discuss academic and behavioral outcome data, core implementation and appropriateness of resources. Content Based Teams Grade-Level Teams Discuss students at-risk for academic and behavioral outcomes, put interventions in place and monitor interventions. SBLT Discuss data and problem solve issues that arise from data analysis. Parent and Community Teams PBS, Literacy Leadership, Discuss academic and behavioral outcome data and problem solve issues that arise from data analysis. 6

7 SBLT Data Review Calendar Week 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Data Review: -FCAT -EOY Data Incoming Freshmen Behavior -ODR -ISS -OSS -PBS Implementation EWS -9 th Grade -Schoolwide -Credits -GPA -Course Failures Attendance -Absence -Tardies Math -Course Failures -Alg 1 -Science -Instructional Delivery Reading/Literacy -Model Structure -Fidelity -Assessments -Instructional Delivery Attendance -Absence -Tardies Meeting times / location: Wednesday 2:40-3:25 Wednesday 2:40-3:25 Wednesday 2:40-3:25 Wednesday 2:40-3:25 Wednesday 2:40-3:25 Wednesday 2:40-3:25 Meeting dates: 7/27/11-7/30/11, 8/24/11, 8/31/11 10/5/11 11/16/11 1/18/12 2/29/12 4/18/12, 5/30/12 10/12/11 11/30/11 1/25/12 3/7/12 4/25/12, 6/6/12 9/7/11 10/19/11 12/7/11 2/1/12 3/14/12 5/2/12 9/14/11 10/26/11 12/14/11 2/8/12 3/21/12 5/9/12 9/21/11 11/2/11 1/4/12 2/15/12 4/4/12 5/16/12 9/28/11 11/9/11 1/11/12 2/22/12 4/11/12 5/23/12 HO 1 7

8 EWS Critical Question Why do we need an EWS? 8

9 Consider This A large national sample of 8 th grade students were asked if they would graduate within four years of entering high school and 98% predicted that they would. The same students were asked the same question after the first semester of their 9 th grade year. What percentage reported a belief that they would graduate in 4 years? 60% Source: Florida PS/RtI Project 9

10 Turn and Talk Turn and talk with your table partners. Why do you think such a drastic change in students perception occurred? What implication does this have for you as leaders at a: High school? Middle school? Elementary school? WHAT can we do about this? 10

11 Picture a high school freshman class of 30 students 11

12 Why is EWS important to a School? Research shows that students at risk of falling off track could graduate on time if they were provided with the appropriate supports early enough and if those supports were sustained. Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005, June). 12

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14 High School Attendance

15 EWS Critical Question What data is used for an EWS? 15

16 School Improvement Plan Early Warning Indicators What are the primary early warning indicators for elementary, middle, and high school? 16

17 Elementary School SIP EWS-Indicators Students who: miss 10 percent or more of available instructional time, are retained, pursuant to s (4)(c), F.S., are not proficient in reading by third grade, receive two or more behavior referrals, and/or receive one or more behavior referrals that lead to suspension, as defined in s (5), F.S. School Improvement Plan( 2013) 17

18 Academic: Elementary 16% of children who are not reading proficiently by the end of third grade do not graduate from high school. This is 4 times greater than the non-graduating rate of proficient readers. Hernandez, D. J., (2012) 18

19 Academic: Elementary 85% of all juvenile offenders have reading problems. Texas uses fourth grade Reading scores to project the number of prison cells needed 10 years later. Cohen, S., (2012) 19

20 Students who: miss 10 percent or more of available instructional time, fail a mathematics course, Middle School SIP EWS-Indicators fail an English Language Arts course, fail two or more courses in any subject, receive two or more behavior referrals and/or, receive one or more behavior referrals that lead to suspension, as defined in s (5), F.S. School Improvement Plan (2013)

21 Middle School Of the 6 th grade students who missed 20% of time and failed Math or English, only 25% of the students graduated. Of the 6 th graders who received one or more unsatisfactory final behavior marks, only 25% of the students graduated. Pinkus, L. (2008, August) 21

22 Middle School 8 th graders 3 out of 4 students who dropped out of middle school failed mathematics or English and had an attendance rate below 80%. Pinkus, L. (2008, August) 22

23 Students who: miss 10 percent or more of available instructional time ninth grade with one or more absences within the first 20 days ninth grade who fail two or more courses in any subject grade point average less than 2.0 fail to progress on-time to tenth grade receive two or more behavior referrals receive one or more behavior referrals that lead to suspension, as defined in s (5), F.S. High School SIP EWS-Indicators School Improvement Plan. (2013)

24 Attendance: High School 9 th graders Missed 10 percent of time 63% graduated Missed 20 percent of time 31% graduated (n= 181,897) 24 Balfanz, R., Byrnes, V., & Fox, J. (2012, December 12)

25 High School Course Failure 0 course failures 9 th Graders 85% graduated 1 course failure 66% graduated Balfanz, R., Byrnes, V., & Fox, J. (2012, December 12). 25

26 1 suspension High School: Behavior 9 th Graders 52% graduated 2 suspensions 38% graduated 26

27 Check Point: Let s Action Plan: What data will be included? 3rd grade Attendance 8 th grade Failing 2 courses 9 th grade Where will I find the data? Student Management Software How often will I schedule data monitoring? Every 3wks How will I know the interventions are working? Is attendance increasing? Report Card Every 9wks Failures SMS Decrease 2 or more Every 6 wks Rate of Behavior referrals referrals decline HO 2

28 Break 28

29 EWS Critical Question How do I organize the data to identify systems in need of intervention? 29

30 Total Progress Elementary Elementary Indicators 30 HO 3

31 On the Way Up High School HO 4

32 Early Warning at the System Level What does the data tell us? What does the data not tell us? What data is needed for further analysis? Elementary Elementary Elementary 5 th grade has the most referrals in elementary Does not tell us the nature of the referral Referrals disaggregated by offense and location High School High School High School 9 th Grade Course Failures Does not tell us what subjects are being failed or the cause of the failures Need to review course failure list and review teacher grade books 32

33 Early Warning at the System Level-Digging Deeper What does the data tell us? Identify and Chart areas of concern What does the data not tell us? What data is needed for further analysis? 33 HO 5

34 9 th graders are failing reading more than any other course. It does not tell us why the students are failing. Is it the curriculum? Is it student engagement? Is it teacher beliefs? Are students failing all three classes? Walk-through data from the classroom. Comparison of assessment data to grading criteria. Student and teacher perceptions data. HO 6 34

35 9 th graders are missing more instructional time than any other grade Are the same students who are absent also the ones receiving ISS or OSS? Why are students disengaged in classes? Disaggregated lost instructional time by student. Student survey data to understand why students perceive they are disengaged. HO 7 35

36 We know that more students are failing reading than mathematics. Why students are failing reading? We need the Reading level of the students. We need walk-through data from Reading and mathematics classes. How many students are failing both math and reading? HO 8 36

37 We know that more offenses are occurring in the classroom. This data does not tell us the nature of the referral. We do not know the number of referrals by location. There is need to disaggregate the referrals by type in each location. HO 9 37

38 EWS Critical Question How do I use student level data to identify students who are off track and possible system issues? 38

39 Using indicators to identify and classify students who are off track Extreme Off Track Off Track On Track

40 Indicator Elementary School Middle School High School Attendance Missed 10 % or more of instructional time Missed 10% or more of instructional time Missed 10% or more of instructional time In ninth grade with one or more absences within the first 20 days Referrals and Suspensions Course Failures Two or more behavior referrals AND/OR One or more referrals with suspension defined in s (5) F.S. Not proficient in reading by third grade Two or more behavior referrals AND/OR One or more referrals with suspension defined in s (5) F.S. Failed a mathematics course Failed an English Language Arts course Failed two or more courses in any subject Two or more behavior referrals AND/OR One or more referrals with suspension defined in s (5) F.S. In ninth grade with two or more failed courses in any subject In ninth grade and failed to progress ontime to tenth grade Credits (units) GPAs (Middle and High School) Retentions Retained pursuant to s (4)(c), F.S. 40 Grade point average less than 2.0 HO 10

41 Student Name Grade Level Birth Date Gender ELEMENTARY ELL Race / Ethnicity Retentions Exceptionality Days Present Days Absent Tardy Early Out AP RC Percentile FCAT 2.0 SSS Level FCAT 2.0 SSS Reading JO M HispanLY Y K C C 4 JANE M White Y C C 5 JEFF M Multi K B B 4 JORDAN M Black C C 4 MICHAEL F White Y B B 4 MATTHEW F White B B 4 EMILY M Black D F 12 FRED M Asian LY C C 4 SYNTHIA F White F D 4 DEBBIE F Black Y C C 6 JUDI F Black B B 8 PENNY M White C C 8 PAM M White Z B B 7 JIM F White Y L A A 8 JOHN M Black B B 3 CHARLIE F White C F 3 MARGARET M Black B B 3 MARY F Multi Y F F 3 KATHY F White C C 3 KIM F Black C C 3 KARA M White C C 3 ROGERRS M White Y L F F 3 FISHBAIT M Black C C 3 MARTHA F White D D 3 KISHA F Asian LY Y W D D 0 LATASHA F Black BSI Summer F F Academy 7 SIMON F Black B B 0 Math Discipline Referrals HO 11

42 42 HO 12

43 At-risk Indicator Activity Looking at the student data Identify students who are off track as identified by SIP EWS Indicators 43

44 Student Name Grade Level Birth Date Gender ELEMENTARY Race / Ethnicity ELL Retentions Exceptionality Days Present Days Absent Tardy Early Out AP RC Percentile FCAT 2.0 SSS Level FCAT 2.0 SSS JO M HispanicLY Y K C C 4 JANE M White Y C C 5 JEFF M Multi K B B 4 JORDAN M Black C C 4 MICHAE F White Y B B 4 MATTHE F White B B 4 EMILY M Black D F 12 FRED M Asian LY C C 4 SYNTHIA F White F D 4 DEBBIE F Black Y C C 6 JUDI F Black B B 8 PENNY M White C C 8 PAM M White Z B B 7 JIM F White Y L A A 8 JOHN M Black B B 3 CHARLIE F White C F 3 MARGAR M Black B B 3 MARY F Multi Y F F 3 KATHY F White C C 3 KIM F Black C C 3 KARA M White C C 3 ROGERR M White Y L F F 3 FISHBAI M Black C C 3 MARTHA F White D D 3 KISHA F Asian LY Y W D D 0 LATASHA F Black BSI Summer 193Academy F F 7 SIMON F Black B B 0 Reading Math D

45 HIGH SCHOOL DATA SUBSET Student Name AP1 Grade Level Birth Date Gender Race / Ethnicity ELL F/R Lunch ESE Code Days Absent AP1 RC Percentile AP2 RC Percentile AP3 RC Percentile F Black N V D F D FCAT 2.0 SSS Level FCAT 2.0 SSS Score Algebra Reading Biology Disc. Referrals OVERALL G F Black Y C B F F Hispanic LY Y D F D M Black Y D D F F White Y W C D F F Asian LY Y F B D F Black LY N C F D M Black Y F F C F Hispanic LY Y D D F More Indicators M White N A A B M Black LY N D F F Higher Level of Risk F Black Y C F D F M Black Y D D F M White Y C D C M Black Y D B F F Hispanic LY Y F F F M Black Y F F C F Black Y K F C D F White N B B C F Black Y C B C F Black LY Y B B C F Black Y BSI 2013 D Summer C Academy D M Black N K D A D 2 2.5

46 Discussion and Next steps Matching resources to reduce identified student and/or system barriers 46

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48 Middle School EWS 48

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50 Wrap Up -EWS Critical Questions 1. What is an EWS? 2. What is an EWS? 3. What data is used for an EWS? 4. How do I organize the data to identify systems in need of intervention? 5. How do I use student level data to identify students who are off track and possible system issues? 50

51 Exit Ticket 3- What are 3 things that you learned? 2- What are 2 things that you will use immediately when you return to your school? 1- What is 1 thing that you already do that aligns with this module? 51 HO 13

52 References Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005, June). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Chicago, Illinois, USA. ASCD Association for Supervision and Curriculum Development. (2008, December 2). High School Dropouts. Alexandria, Virginia, USA. Balfanz, R. (2008, January 30). Three Steps to Building an Early Warning and Intervention System for Potential Dropouts. Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Balfanz, R., & Fox, J. M. (2011). On Track for Success: The Use of Early Earning Indicator and Intervention Systems to Build a Grad Nation. Washington: Everyone Graduates Center. Balfanz, R., Byrnes, V., & Fox, J. (2012, December 12). Sent Home and Put Off-Track: The Antecedents, Disproportionalities, and Consequences of Being Suspended in the Ninth Grade. Baltimore, Maryland, USA. 52

53 References Chang, H. N., & Romero, M. (2008, September). Present, Engaged and Accounted For: The Critical Importance of Addressing Chronic Absence in the Early Grades. New York City: Columbia University. Cohen, S. (2010, December 25). A $5 Children's Book vs a $47,000 Jail Cell -- Choose One. Retrieved April 2013, from Florida PS/RtI Project -USF. Tampa, Florida Forbes Magazine: childrens-book-vs-a jail-cell-choose-one/ Heppen, J. B., & Therriault, J. B. (2008, July). Developing Early Warning Systems to Identify Potential High School Dropouts. USA. 53

54 References Hernandez, D. J. (2012). Double Jeopardy: How Third Grade Reading Skills and Poverty Influence High School Graduation. Double Jeopardy: How Third Grade Reading Skills and Poverty Influence High School Graduation. New York City, New York, USA. Pinkus, L. (2008, August). Using Early-Warning Data to Improve Graduation Rates: Closing Cracks in the Education System. Alliance for Excellent Education Policy Brief, pp