AUSTRALIA PROPERTY INVESTMENT SEMINAR

Transcription

1 AUSTRALIA PROPERTY INVESTMENT SEMINAR RESULTS FOR JUNE 2016 August 2016 Index Sponsor 2016 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.

2 INDUSTRY PARTNERS 2

3 SPONSORS Australia All Property Index Unlisted Wholesale and Retail Fund Index Unlisted Retail Fund Index Australia Hotel Index Australia Unlisted Infrastructure Index Global Infrastructure Asset Index Venue Sponsor 3

4 OUTLINE Index Market Update Guest Speaker Panel Discussion 4

5 INDEX MARKET UPDATE Anthony De Francesco Executive Director, Client Coverage, APAC MSCI 5

6 AUSTRALIA PROPERTY ASSET DATABASE 1,418 assets A$165 bn value Abacus Property Group ALE Property Group Aligned FM Amalgamated Holdings Ltd AMP Capital Investors APN Property Group Arcadia Funds Management Arena Investment Management Australian Unity Brookfield BWP Trust Cbus Property Challenger Limited Charter Hall Group Cromwell Property Group DEXUS Property Group Eureka Funds Management Folkestone Funds Management Goodman GPT Group Grand Hotel Group Harmony Group Heathley Limited IBA (Indigenous Business Australia) IHG (Intercontinental Hotel Group) INVESTA Property Group ISPT JGS Property LaSalle Investment Management Lend Lease Real Estate Local Government Super Millinium Capital Managers Ltd Mirvac MTAA Super Garda Capital Group Perron Group QIC Retirement Benefits Fund Board Schwartz Family & Co Stockland Valad Property Group Vicinity Centres Vital Healthcare Property Trust 6

7 AUSTRALIA FUND DATABASE Participants: 102 funds A$86 bn value Participants: 23 funds A$35 bn value WHOLESALE FUNDS RETAIL FUNDS UNLISTED INFRASTRUCTURE AMP Capital Charter Hall DEXUS Fortius Goodman GPT Investa Property Group ISPT LaSalle Investment Management Lend Lease Mirvac QIC Valad Property Group Abacus Property Group Alceon APN Property Group Arena Investment Management Australian Unity Centuria Property Funds Charter Hall CorVal Cromwell Denison Funds Management Folkestone Heathley Investec MAB Funds Management Mair Group Quintessential Equity Sentinel Property Group AMP Capital Colonial First State Global Asset Management Hastings Funds Management IFM Investors Infrastructure Capital Group Palisade Investment Partners Queensland Investment Corporation Whitehelm Capital 7

8 AUS PROPERTY MARKET HOVERS AROUND CYCLE PEAK 25% AUSTRALIAN ALL PROPERTY RETURNS ANNUAL RETURNS ON QUARTERLY PERIODS 20% % 10% % 0% -5% -10% -15% Jun 2006 Jun 2007 Jun 2008 Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013 Jun 2014 Jun 2015 Jun 2016 Income Return Capital Growth Total Return Total return of 13.3% comprised of 6.5% income return and 6.3% capital return 8

9 AUS PROPERTY IS GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE: UK PROPERTY MARKET CYCLE IN DOWNWARD PHASE TOTAL RETURN ACROSS GLOBAL MARKETS ALL PROPERTY ANNUALIZED RETURNS IN LOCAL CURRENCY IPD UK MONTHLY PROPERTY INDEX ALL PROPERTY ANNUALIZED RETURNS IN LOCAL CURRENCY Note: Japan total return is to Apr-16 only 9

10 AUS/NZ OUTPERFORM ASIA PROPERTY MARKET ASIA PACIFIC ALL PROPERTY RETURNS ANNUAL RETURNS TO DECEMBER 2014 AND

11 OFFICE SECTOR OUTPERFORMS IN CORE SPACE: HOTEL AND HEALTHCARE SECTORS OUTPERFORMING CORE 25% PERFORMANCE ACROSS AUS PROPERTY SECTOR AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURN 23.3% 22.9% 20% capital return income return total return 18.5% 18.4% 17.8% 17.2% 15% 13.6% 13.3% 14.6% 14.6% 13.8% 14.4% 13.5% 11.8% 11.7% 10.8% 11.8% 11.2% 10% 5% 0% J15 M16 J16 J15 M16 J16 J15 M16 J16 J15 M16 J16 J15 M16 J16 J15 M16 J16 Total Office Retail Industrial Hotel Healthcare Note: J refers to June and M refers to March. 11

12 CAPITAL RETURN ACROSS ALL SECTORS MAINLY UNDERPINNED BY CAP RATE COMPRESSION CAPITAL BREAKDOWN PER SECTOR FOR THE 12 MONTHS TO JUNE

13 PROPERTY CAP RATES STILL FIRMING: AGGRESSIVE PRICING IN NON-CORE SECTORS 10% 9% 8% GFC Lehman Bros collapse AUS property cap rates vs bond rate period ending June % 6% 5% 4% 3% Industrial Office 10 YR Bond rate 2% Retail Combined Healthcare 1% hotel Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 13

14 RETAIL PROPERTY SECTOR RETURNS MODERATING... RETURNS ACROSS AUS RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETS ANNUAL RETURN 18% 16% 14% capital return income return total return 13.2% 12.8% 15.5% 14.4% 17.1% 16.0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 11.8% 11.2% 9.9% 9.3% 11.2% 10.4% 0% M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 Total SM Regional Regional Sub Regional N'hoods Large Form Note: J16 refers to Jun 2016 and M16 refers to Mar

15 LINKED TO SOFTENING RETAIL DEMAND 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% National retail turnover and interest rates annual nominal growth on monthly periods ending June % Intro of GST GFC 1% recession bond market crash Housing slump 0% Dec-92 Dec-95 Dec-98 Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 Dec-13 cut in cash rate LT average MAT growth Note: seasonally adjusted series. Stimulus Source: ABS and MSCI. 15

16 13.0% 14.0% 9.8% 11.0% DIVERSE OFFICE PROPERTY SECTOR RETURNS ACROSS CBD MARKETS 25% RETURNS ACROSS AUS CBD OFFICE PROPERTY MARKETS ANNUAL RETURN 20% 18.3% 18.8% 15.9% 15.7% 15% 14.6% 14.6% 10% 10.7% 9.9% 5% 0% -0.2% -0.5% -5% -10% capital return income return total return M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 Total SYD MEL BRI PER CAN ADL Note: J16 refers to Jun 2016 and M16 refers to Mar

17 CAPITAL RETURN MAINLY DRIVEN BY CAP RATE COMPRESSION ACROSS CBDS EXCEPT FOR PERTH CAP RATE IMPACT AND CAPITAL RETURN FOR THE CBD MARKETS FOR THE 12 MONTHS TO JUNE

18 WHITE COLLAR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AT CYCLE PEAK: VARIES ACROSS STATES 10.0% White collar employment growth by state annual MA growth on quarterly periods ending May % 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14 NSW VIC QLD WA AUS Source: ABS and MSCI. 18

19 GREEN STAR RATED OFFICE BUILDING OUTPERFORMING TOTAL RETURN AND PERFORMANCE DRIVERS FOR GREEN BUILDINGS FOR CBD OFFICE MARKETS RESULTS FOR THE 12 MONTHS TO JUNE 2016 NABERS TOTAL RETURN CAP RATE VACANCY WALE 4 to 6 star Sydney CBD Melbourne CBD Brisbane CBD Perth CBD GREEN STAR 4, 5 & 6 star Sydney CBD Melbourne CBD Brisbane CBD Perth CBD ALL AUSTRALIAN OFFICE Sydney CBD Melbourne CBD Brisbane CBD Perth CBD

20 INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY SECTOR RETURNS MODERATING 25% RETURNS ACROSS INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY MARKETS ANNUAL RETURN 20% 15% 14.4% 13.5% 11.3% 10.9% 19.9% 17.2% 14.1% 13.9% 16.6% 15.2% 10% 5% 0% M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 Total Distribution Ind. Estate Warehouse HT/BPs income return capital return total return Note: J16 refers to Jun 2016 and M16 refers to March

21 HOTEL PROPERTY SECTOR DELIVERS STRONG RETURNS BUT MODERATING WITH SOFTENING OCCUPANCY 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 18.5% 18.4% 18.5% 17.0% 18.5% 21.7% 25.0% 25.5% 21.8% 20.2% 7.9% 8.4% M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 Total CBD Non-CBD NSW VIC QLD capital return income return income return Note: M16 refers to March 2016 and J16 refers to June Performance across hotel property markets average annual return 83% 82% 81% 80% 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% 74% RevPAR versus Occupancy Australian hotel sector, quarterly periods to June 2016 Occupancy (lhs) RevPAR (rhs) 73% Mar-06 Sep-07 Mar-09 Sep-10 Mar-12 Sep-13 Mar-15 $1.5 $1.4 $1.4 $1.3 $1.3 $1.2 $1.2 21

22 HEALTHCARE PROPERTY SECTOR YIELDS STRONG RETURNS ACROSS BOTH HOSPITALS & MEDICAL CENTRES 25% 20% 15% 10% Return performance for healthcare sector annual return on quarterly periods to June % 30% 25% 20% 15% Performance across healthcare property markets 27.5% 23.7% 23.9% 24.6% 23.2% 22.7% average annual return 21.9% 21.5% 32.4% 30.7% 18.8% 20.2% 5% 10% 0% 5% -5% Capital return Income return Total return All prop total return -10% Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 0% M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 M16 J16 Total HC PH MC NSW VIC QLD capital return income return total return Note: M16 refers to March 2016 and J16 refers to June

23 UNLISTED WHOLESALE CORE FUNDS DELIVER RETURN PREMIUM TO DIRECT PROPERTY BUT VARIES BY SECTOR RETURN BREAKDOWN FOR ALL FUNDS AND FUND SECTORS ANNUAL RETURNS FOR THE YEAR TO JUNE 2016 Note: the chart excludes industrial-specific funds. 23

24 BOTH REAL ESTATE AND INFRASTRUCTURE OUTPERFORM EQUITIES FUND LEVEL, DIRECT ASSET LEVEL AND REIT PERFORMANCE ROLLING ANNUAL RETURNS FOR QUARTERLY PERIODS 24

25 INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT RETURNS HAVE BEEN STRONG BUT MODERATING 30% Returns for AUS unlisted infrastructure funds annualised pre-fee returns on quarterly periods to June % Return for global infrastructure asset segments annual return on quarterly periods to March % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Distributed income return Capital return -10% Total return Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Global Transport Power Contracted Uncontracted. 25

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