Spatial Shaping: Unilaterally Determining Israel s Base-Line Border. February 2013
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1 Spatial Shaping: Unilaterally Determining Israel s Base-Line Border February 2013
2 2013 has witnessed a settlement surge unprecedented in scope and intensity since No mere tactical move, this surge constitutes a strategic thrust to unilaterally determine a baseline border between Israel and Palestine, and has been euphemistically dubbed by Israeli authorities Spatial Shaping.
3 Spatial Shaping is being achieved by four, complementary components: I. Delineating the base-line border, by means of the route of the barrier II. Consolidating the newly defined border by means of settlements III. Neutralizing the Palestinian presence within the new borders IV. Creating infrastructures that integrate the new Israeli areas into pre-1967 Israel, and functionally detach the Palestinian population in these areas
4 Spatial Shaping creates a new, base-line border by: * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and Giva t Ze ev E 1 Ma ale Adumim EJ Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area Etzyion
5 Spatial Shaping The Ma aleh creates a new, base-line Adumim border by: * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion*; and E 1 East Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area *We deem construction to be pending if they are under construction, or ground-breaking is anticipated in the near future.
6 Spatial Shaping The Ma aleh creates a new, base-line Adumim border by: * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion*; and E 1 East Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area *We deem construction to be pending if they are under construction, or ground-breaking is anticipated in the near future.
7 Spatial Shaping The Ma aleh creates a new, base-line Adumim border by: * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion*; and Givat Ze ev Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement 30% Increase E 1 East Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area *We deem construction to be pending if they are under construction, or ground-breaking is anticipated in the near future.
8 Spatial Shaping The Ma aleh creates a new, base-line Adumim border by: Givat Ze ev * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion*; and Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement 30% Increase East Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement 18% Increase E 1 East Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area *We deem construction to be pending if they are under construction, or ground-breaking is anticipated in the near future.
9 Spatial Shaping The Ma aleh creates a new, base-line Adumim border by: Givat Ze ev * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion*; and Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement 30% Increase East Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement 18% Increase E 1 East Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area *We deem construction to be pending if they are under construction, or ground-breaking is anticipated in the near future Etziyon Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement 13% Increase
10 Spatial Shaping The Ma aleh creates a new, base-line Adumim border by: Givat Ze ev * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion*; and Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement 30% Increase East Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement 18% Increase E Ma aleh Adumim Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement East 35% Increase Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area *We deem construction to be pending if they are under construction, or ground-breaking is anticipated in the near future Etziyon Pending Settlement Schemes Existing Settlement 13% Increase
11 Spatial Shaping creates a new, base-line border by: * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and Giva t Ze ev * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion; and * neutralizing the Palestinian presence by creating Palestinian enclaves; and E 1 Ma ale Adumim EJ Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area Etzyion
12 Spatial Shaping creates a new, base-line border by: * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and Giva t Ze ev * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion; and * neutralizing the Palestinian presence by creating Palestinian enclaves; and E 1 Ma ale Adumim * creating infrastructures that integrate the newly defined areas into sovereign Israel,... EJ Israeli Roads Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area Etzyion
13 Spatial Shaping creates a new, base-line border by: * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and Giva t Ze ev * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion; and * neutralizing the Palestinian presence by creating Palestinian enclaves; and E 1 Ma ale Adumim * creating infrastructures that integrate the newly defined areas into sovereign Israel while containing movement from the Palestinian enclaves in sealed roads, and diverting Palestinian movement outside of these areas by means of bypass roads... EJ Sealed Roads Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area Etzyion
14 Spatial Shaping creates a new, base-line border by: * delineating that border by means of the barrier; and Giva t Ze ev * consolidating that border by means of settlement expansion; and * neutralizing the Palestinian presence by creating Palestinian enclaves; and E 1 Ma ale Adumim * creating infrastructures that integrate the newly defined areas into sovereign Israel while containing movement from the Palestinian enclaves in sealed roads, and diverting Palestinian movement outside of these areas by means of bypass roads. EJ Bypass Roads Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area Etzyion
15 The new border is a base-line border, that is: Israel s minimal border, but not necessarily final Giva t Ze ev one: * filled with tens of thousands of settler units, augmented by large-scale infrastructures, and neutralizing Palestinian demography, the new border aspires to irreversibility. E 1 Ma ale Adumim EJ Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area Etzyion
16 The new border is a base-line border, that is: Israel s minimal border, but not necessarily final Giva t Ze ev one: * filled with tens of thousands of settler units, augmented by large-scale infrastructures, and neutralizing Palestinian demography, the new border aspires to irreversibility. E 1 Ma ale Adumim * the base-line border allows for additional spatial shaping, so as to include the smaller. more isolated settlement blocs beyond its boundary: i.e. the Ofra/Beit El, the Tekoa bloc, etc. EJ Route of the Barrier Old City Green Line Israeli Built-up Area Beyond Green Line Palestinian Built-up Area Etzyion Tekoa
17 The new base-line border creates: A large area in East and its environs in the West Bank, virtually indistinguishable from Israel proper, with a large Israeli population, and a Palestinian population limited to East
18 The new base-line border creates: A fragmented, discontinuous Palestinian State, dismembered into cantons and enclaves and with no connection to East
19 The new base-line border creates: A large area in East and its environs in the West Bank, virtually indistinguishable from Israel proper, with a large Israeli population, and a Palestinian population limited to East VS. A fragmented, discontinuous Palestinian State, dismembered into cantons and enclaves and with no connection to East
20 The Geographical Realities within a 20 km. radius of the Old City Pre-1967 metropolitan was: The new, baseline borders create a reality which is: 17% Israel, including West 83% West Bank, including East 39% Israel, including united and three large settlement blocs 22% Palestinian West Bank 61% undetermined, and subject to future spatial shaping or negotiations
21 The Geographical Realities within a 20 km. radius of the Old City Pre-1967 metropolitan was: The new, baseline borders create a reality which is: 17% 39% 39% 83% 22% 17% Israel, including West 83% West Bank, including East 39% Israel, including united and three large settlement blocs 22% Palestinian West Bank 39% undetermined, and subject to future spatial shaping or negotiations
22 The Demographic Realities within a 20 km. radius of the Old City Prior to Spatial Shaping, and ignoring political and physical boundaries: After Spatial Shaping, and within the new base-line boundaries: 686, , % 53.3% Israelis Palestinians 750,000 Israelis 47% 293,000 East Palestinians 18.4% 553, % Palestinians Under Israeli Control In base-line Israel: 750,000 Israelis 293,000 Palestinians non-citizens of Israel In fragmented Palestine: 453,000 Palestinians evenly divided between the discontinuous cantons of Ramallah in the north and Bethlehem in the south 100,000 Palestinians within isolated enclaves
23 Our analysis is limited to our area of expertise: and its immediate environs. It is quite possible that an examination of developments elsewhere in the West Bank will reveal that Spatial Shaping is taking place there as well. JERUSALEM Regardless, the base-line border being created in and its environs is so antithetical to the requisites of any contiguous, viable Palestinian State, that once implemented - and we are talking in terms of months, not years - the two-state solution will be a virtual impossibility. GAZA STRIP EGYPT JORDAN
24 NORTH WB JERUSALEM SOUTH WB Our analysis is limited to our area of expertise: and its immediate environs. It is quite possible that an examination of developments elsewhere in the West Bank will reveal that Spatial Shaping is taking place there as well. Regardless, the base-line border being created in and its environs is so antithetical to the requisites of any contiguous, viable Palestinian State, that once implemented - and we are talking in terms of months, not years - the two-state solution will be a virtual impossibility. GAZA STRIP EGYPT JORDAN
25 There are those who say: the two-state solution is already dead ; others assert: nothing is irreversible, and the two-state solution cannot be destroyed. We believe that neither of these claims are correct. The current developments matter very much. They pose an unprecedented threat to the very possibility of a permanent status agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, now and in the foreseeable future. Halting the settlement surge and Spatial Shaping is imperative if the two-state solution is to survive.
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