Water in the Middle East From a nascent source of conflict to a driver for regional cooperation

Transcription

1 Water in the Middle East From a nascent source of conflict to a driver for regional cooperation Jad Isaac Applied Research Institute Jerusalem (ARIJ) June 15,2013

2 Introduction The Middle East region is recognized as the driest and most water scarce region in the world. While representing 5% of the total world population, the Middle East region contains less than 1% of the global renewable water resources. Water resources have been exploited at a much higher rate than can be replenished naturally. Water depletion has been compounded by a high growth of population and the expanding needs in agriculture and industry. Pollution has contributed to the deterioration of the usable resources and a general decline in water quality.

3 Water Scarcity Index Source : UNEP Grid-Adrenal

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5 Most of the water resources in the region are transboundary : Nile, Jordan, Euphrates, Tigris in addition to the ground water resources. Competition over the utilization of these shared resources has made water a catalyst for conflict. The current allocations of the shared water resources among the ripariansin the region are not the outcome of agreements, negotiations or equitable principles. Climatic change will exacerbate water scarcity Water accessibility is expected to fall by 50 % in 2050.

6 Colouringthe water Blue Green Grey / Black Orange Red Gold

7 The BlueGreenwater lexus An average of 88%of the region s water is allocated to the agricultural sectors, and only 7% to domestic use. 26% of the population is dependent upon the agricultural sector. Subsistence farming in the MENA region will fall under significant additional risk due to climatic change Irrigated agriculture will be affected by climatic change due to rising temperature, increased evapotranspiration and decreased precipitation. Farmers income will be reduced and food prices will increase leading to increased social disparity and food insecurity.

8 The Grey Black water lexus More than 25 % of the population are not linked to public water networks More than 40 % losses in network distributions. For example, one third of the domestic water use (in Jordan, Palestine, and Israel) is used for flushing toilets Tourists consume 5 times the average citizen. Reuse of treated waste water is still not wide spread.

9 The OrangeRedwater lexus Turkey-Syria The Euphrates River flows from its origins in Turkey through Syria and Iraq. In the early 1990's, the water flows from Turkey to Syria were decreased stopping seven of the ten turbines at the hydroelectric plant at Tabaqahwhich led to severe power cuts throughout the country. In 1997, Turkey launched the GAPproject which affected the flow of water downstream to Syria and Iraq. Syria considers the Euphrates River to be its principal source of water and wants to maintain the flow of the river downstream to 500MCM annually.

10 Syria-Iraq In 1974, Syria inaugurated Al-ThawrahDam on the Euphrates. When the Syrians began to fill the reservoir at Lake Asad, the flow of the river to Iraqdropped from the normal 920 cubic meters per second to 197 cubic meters per second. Troops were redeployed but the intervention of the Soviet Union and Saudi Arabia diffused the tension. Iraq is concerned that water reaching its borders is decreasing in both quantity and quality.

11 Turkey-Iraq Water reaching Iraq is decreasing in both quantity and quality. There is considerable evidence that at Basra much of the irrigated land has been salinized. In September 1992, Turkish, Syrian, and Iraqi water officials convened in Damascus in September 1992, but the meeting broke up after Turkey rejected Iraq s request to restore the flow of water crossing the Turkish border to Iraq to 700cubic meters per second instead of the current 500cubic meters per second.

12 The Jordan River The Jordan River Basin is an international watercourse shared between Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria. The entire length of the Jordan River is 360 Km with a surface catchment area of about 18,300 Km2. The Jordan River Basin has emerged as a flashpoint for conflict over water.

13 Source The River Jordan Source: Main, 1953 Hasbani 157 Dan 258 Banias 157 Yarmouk 475 East Wadis 123 West Wadis 145 At Allenby Bridge 1315 Average annual flow MCM

14 Water Projects in Jordan River

15 Jordan River Water Allocations in MCM Country Johnston R Current Change Syria Lebanon Jordan Israel Total 1287

16 Roots of water conflict in the Jordan River

17 Jordan-Syria Jordan and Syria finalized an agreement to start the controversial Al Wihdah (Unity) dam on the Yarmouk. Like all other Middle East countries, Jordan faced severe water crisis during the past years of drought. Syria came to the rescue by providing Jordan with an average of 8 MCM annually.

18 Israel-Syria In 1958, Israel initiated the National Water Carrier project. The Arab reaction was to build dams on tributaries of the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers, thus reducing the water flow to Israel. In 1965, Syria began building dams to divert water from the Banias and Dan Rivers in the Golan Heights. Israel sent its fighter planes to destroy the work sites. In 1967, Israel occupied the Golan Heights with its 330 MCM of water annually. Borders and water are the two major conflict issues between the two sides.

19 Israel-Lebanon The average flow of Hasbani is 157 MCM annually. Lebanon is entitled to 35 MCM of the Hasbani according to the Johnston plan. Lebanon believes that it is entitled to 70 MCM. Lebanon has been utilizing only 7 MCM of the Hasbani annually. Lebanon wanted to utilize an additional 4 MCM of the Hasbani for domestic purposes. Israel started beating the drums of war.

20 The Nile Basin

21 Israel-Palestine Jordan River According to the Johnston plan, a West Ghor canalwas included in his plan to provide Palestinians with Jordan River water that translates into 250 MCMper year. This project was never implemented.. Palestinians are full riparians in the Jordan River basin and have historically used its water for irrigation in the Jordan Valley. Prior to the 1967 war, the Palestinians use of the Jordan River was through 140 pumping units. Following the 1967 war, Israel prevented Palestinian farmers from utilizing the water resource of the Jordan River by closing large areas of Palestinian farm land in the area and imposing a number of military orders to control Palestinian water resources

22 Ground water resources Groundwater is the major source of fresh water supply in the mandate Palestine. There are eleven ground water basins in mandate Palestine, of which four are located in the West Bank and Gaza Strip either partially or totally. About 1345 MCM/yr emerge from groundwater basins through more than 4000 wells.

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24 The Holy Land

25 The Western Basinis the largest and has an annual safe yield of 362MCM. Palestinians consume only about 7.5%of its safe yield. The Northeastern Basinhas an annual safe yield of 145 MCM. Palestinians consume about 18% of its safe yield. The Eastern Basinhas an annual safe yield of 172 MCM. Palestinians are utilizing 50%of the waters of this basin. 485:115

26 The total abstraction dropped from 138 MCM in 1999 to 93 MCM in 2009 and to86.9in Needed, Supplied and Deficit Quantity MCM Needed quantity Supplied quantity Deficit Based on the WHO recommendations that each person should receive 150 litters of fresh water per day, the total real deficit in domestic water supply fortheyear2011reached66mcm.

27 Israel water company "Mekorot" had a significant role in controlling the West Bank water resources. Mekorot controls 39 wells in the West Bank, The Mekerot wells mainly serve Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and sell the Palestinian their own water Quantity of Water Purchased From (Mekorot) for Domestic Use West Bank Gaza strip

28 In the West Bank around 112,733 (un served population) Palestinian living in 70 (un-served communities) villages are still without a running water network.

29 The Inequitable consumption of water between Palestinian and Israelis The discrimination in utilization of the water resources shared by Israelis and Palestinians is clearly seen in the figures of the water consumption by the two populations. Water consumption by Palestinians is 73 l/c/d and in some cases water use may not exceed 20 L l/c/d compared to about 300 l/c/d for Israelis. 400 Per capita water consumption (L/c/d) WHO* Minimum Water Standard = 100 l/c/d 700,000 Jewish settlers receive continuous water supply, largely from groundwater wells in the West Bank. Each settler consumes 150 CM of fresh water annually. 0 West Bank Gaza Strip OPT Israel Israel Settlement

30 Impact of Israeli Settlements The following table provides further examples of this stark situation by comparing Israeli settlements availability of and access to water with that of nearby Palestinian villages Israeli Settlement Litres/person/ day Nearby Palestinian village Litres/person/ day Beda ot 401 Tubas 30 Niran 433 Al-A uja 82 Arganan 411 A-Zubeidat 82 Ro i 431 Al-Hadidiya 20 Beqa ot 406 Al-Hadidiya 20 Source: EWASH, 2011

31 Israeli occupation Impact on the Water Sector The Israeli occupation has played a major role in depleting and deteriorating the Palestinian water resources in terms of both quantity and quality, destroying water infrastructures, and preventing Palestinians from developing these infrastructures. No. Demolished Cisterns, Wells and Springs Tank Spring Water pool Well Cistern

32 Impact of Segregation Wall 29 Palestinian wells and 32 Palestinian springs will be isolated in the Western Segregation Zone. 165 Palestinian Wells and 53 Palestinian springs in the Eastern Segregation Zone.

33 The expected agricultural loss due to the Israeli segregation plan in the West Bank Area (1000 dunum) Production (1000 tons) Value (Million$US) Eastern Part Wester Part Total

34 Wastewater Management in the West Bank Only 30% of the total population have access to sewage collection networks. Only 63 localities, out of 510 localities, The Israeli settlers in the West Bank including East Jerusalem generate more than 100 MCM of wastewater annually.

35 Gaza Water scarcity The Gaza coastal aquifer has an annual safe yield of 55 MCM but is over-extracted at a rate of 120 MCM which led to sea water intrusion. 95 % of water in Gaza is not suitable for domestic consumption.

36 The problem of water quality in Gaza Strip is one of the most serious challenges facing the Palestinian water sector. Between 90-95% of Gaza's groundwater is polluted and falls short of the accepted international guidelines for potable water The WHO guideline recommends less than 50 mg/l of nitrate concentration; tests indicated that the nitrate concentration reached ten times beyond the WHO guidelines in many wells The concentration of chloride varies from 250 mg/l to more than 10,000 mg/l in areas where sea water intrusion occurred. The WHO approved guideline of chloride is 250 mg/l.

37 Israeli Palestinian Water Agreement (Oslo II) Israel recognizes the Palestinian water rights in the West Bank. These rights will be negotiated in the permanent status negotiations and settled in the Permanent Status Agreement relating to the various water resources. Israel offered the Palestinians 28.6 mcm/year to meet their immediate needs during the interim period to be extracted mostly from the Eastern aquifer. The future needs of the Palestinians in the West Bank were estimated to be between MCM/Yr.

38 Palestinians fear of a dry peace There are serious doubts that Palestinians can extract the water quantities specified in the agreement from the Eastern aquifer. There is an average annual drop of more than 25 meters in the water table level that is raising alarm about the sustainable yield of this aquifer. In the preparatory talks about the final status negotiations, Israel refused to discuss Palestinian water rights and insisted on dealing with some additional water quantities that may be granted to Palestinians from other non-conventional sources such as desalination or imports from the region i.e. needs and not rights.

39 A Proposal to Quantify Palestinian Water Rights Each party will invoke its own principles and a resolution will hopefully be reached and be acceptable to both parties (Palestinians and Israelis). It is argued here that equal utilization and joint management of the water resources between Palestinians and Israelis offer a just and sustainable basis for resolving the historic water conflict in the Middle East. The word equal is used here as a straightforward interpretation and quantification for the term equitable utilization.

40 A Proposal to Quantify Palestinian Water Rights (Cont.) Thus, the 2,086 MCM of the waters available within Mandate Palestine would be equally shared. So that the Palestinians in the OPT will get 698 MCM instead of 238 MCM that is currently used. The Israeli share will be 1,388 MCM instead of 1959 MCM that is currently used. The above distribution of water rights between the two sides is built on the population figures. The per-capita consumption for both the Palestinians and Israelis will be 241 cubic meters/yr. A joint management structure will have to be agreed upon to address the monitoring and compliance with these quotas to ensure the protection of the aquifers as well as the periodic reallocation based on climatic and demographic changes.

41 Costs of the Israeli occupation on the Palestinian economy, USD 000 and % of GDP (2010) Gaza blockade Indirect costs of water restrictions Value Added from irrigation Jordan Valley agriculture Health costs from water Natural resources Cost ('000 USD) 1,908,751 1,903,082 1,219, ,415 20,000 1,837,738 %GDP 23.5% 23.4% 15.0% 8.2% 0.2% 22.6% Dead Sea salts and minerals 1,102, % Value added from quarries 574, % Gas marine reserve 160, % Direct utility costs 492, % Direct electricity costs 440, % Direct water costs 51, % Intl. Trade restrictions 288, % Dual use (excl agriculture) 120, % Dual use agriculture 141, % Cost of trading 26, % Movement restrictions 184, % Dead Sea tourism 143, % Uprooted trees 138, % Direct costs 3,012, % Indirect costs 3,884, % TOTAL 6,896, %

42 Goldwater Infrastructure Know how Good governance Regional cooperation

43 Water in the Middle East Peace Process The peace process was divided into two tracks namely the bilateral negotiations and the multilateral talks. The bilaterals were intended to lead to peace treaties between Israel on one hand and each of the regional parties, namely Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria on the other. The multilateral track was intended to complement and support the bilateral track by promoting regional cooperation. Water is a hot issue in the Middle East peace negotiations. Thus, a special working group was established for water resources in the multilateral negotiations with USA as gavel holder.

44 The multilateral negotiations were not attended by Lebanon and Syria. A regional database structure has been established. A regional desalination research centre is in place, A regional supply and demand study was conducted. Several workshops and regional activities were organized. The multilateral track has been frozen due to lack of progress in the bilateral tracks.

45 Parallel track Conferences Workshops Joint Research Roundtable discussions Water Allocation System The Blue peace Plan

46 Looking ahead Mostwaterresourcesinthe worldare sharedandthe Middle Eastis no exception. Managing shared water resources should be integrated and involve all the parties involved. Management does not only include allocation of water quantities, but most importantly, it involves the protection and sustainable utilization of the resource. Bilateral agreements can not be a substitute for an integrated and comprehensive one that should include all riparians to International River basins. In recent years, the world has been moving from hydrosovereignty to hydrosolidarity. The Middle East should start such an approach.

47 Scope of Regional Cooperation Agreements on principles relating to water allocations Prior notification of projects that will affect neighbouring countries Reasonable utilisation and not to cause significant harm Sharing of information and data Capacity building Joint R & D Joint investment projects Developing joint management plans Formulating opportunities for benefit sharing Good Governance Basin wide management structures

48 The Jordan River The Jordan River Basin may be an ideal candidate for promoting a basin wide regional institution in which all riparian countries need to be involved. The international community need to start the process of building such an institution.

49 Israel's proposed solutions to the riparian dispute have been twofold. Firstly, they have favored large-scale projects which would increase available water in Israel, Palestine and Jordan. * Large-scale desalinization projects, often linked with hydro-electric power generation: - Red Sea-Dead Sea conduit - Mediterranean-Dead Sea conduit * Water diversion projects: - from Lebanon's Litani River to the Jordan headwaters. - from the Nile to Israel or Gaza, with a pipeline going underneath the Suez Canal * Water conveyance projects: - oil tanker conveyance of Turkish or Yugoslavian waters - Conveyance of Turkish or Norwegian waters in enormous balloon-like "medusa bags"

50 The Red Dead Conveyance Project

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52 Red Dead Option: 850 MCM desalinized water 550 Megawatt electricity restoration of Dead Sea levels Promotion of tourism and industries

53 Feasibility Study The large scale conveyance of sea water from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea is technically possible. The estimated cost of a full scale conveyance project, including the supply pipes to urban centers, would be over US$10 billion; Mixing sea water and/or desalination brine with the Dead Sea water entails risks, and especially when the amounts exceed 300 million cubic meters per year; A conveyance project would also pose environmental and social impacts, mostly during construction.

54 The Study Program has not assumed that the best solution to the Dead Sea problems is the conveyance of sea water from the Red Sea. This conveyance is the identified option to address the problem under the Study Program, but there are other options to be examined under the Study of Alternatives.

55 Study of alternatives Alternatives indicate that restoration of the Jordan River alone would not be sufficient to stabilize the level of the Dead Sea.

56 A much more sustainable option

57 The Turkish peace pipe line

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61 Think Globally and act locally Social accountability Participation of Stakeholdes % of unaccounted for water Polluter pay principle Dual water system Water harvesting Roman Wells Small scale waste water treatment plants

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63 Solomon pools The three pools were established by the Ottoman Sultan Suleiman Al-Qanooniin 943 A.C. The pools have a water capacity of 358,000 cubic meters, and are surrounded by 3 springs that feed the main pools.

64 THANK YOU