Edmonton s Risk Based Infrastructure Management System CNAM Bradley Leeman, P.Eng.

Transcription

1 Edmonton s Risk Based Infrastructure Management System CNAM 2010 Bradley Leeman, P.Eng.

2 Agenda Risk Analysis Methodology (The Past) Risk Model (RIMS) (The Present) Strategic Integration with Operational Planning (The Future)

3 What Are the Challenges? Funding is insufficient to preserve existing infrastructure or to support continued growth Funding shortfalls will continue to grow as infrastructure ages, growth continues and inflation increases construction costs Lack of action now will limit options and cost more in the future

4 What Does Our Office Do? Office of Infrastructure & Funding Strategy Mandates: Implement Edmonton City Council s Infrastructure Strategy Develop tools and processes to improve infrastructure asset management and facilitate long term infrastructure planning Coordinate the City s infrastructure grant programs from federal and provincial governments Research and develop alternative sources of funding

5 SMA Consulting Ltd. Established in 1995 History with Office goes back to 2003 Involved in providing services in the areas of value engineering/analysis, risk analysis, uncertainty modeling, production planning, project controls, simulation modeling, construction staging, quality assurance and infrastructure management. Develop new production planning tools based on computer simulation, created technologies for project control and deployed artificial intelligence techniques for optimizing infrastructure planning. Principle Simaan AbouRizk, Ph.D., P.Eng.

6 Risk Analysis Methodology Advantages of Risk Analysis Include: 1 Uniformity in dealing with different types of assets. Comprehensive models of all assets that enable development of various funding scenarios and experimentation with the impacts on infrastructure. Prioritization of funding to deal first with critical assets, and An integrated approach to asset management. 1) Allouche, AbouRizk, and Siu; Risk Analysis of the Physical Condition of Infrastructure Assets

7 What Is The Risk? KM A B C D F Condition Year 2001 Year 2011 Year 2021 Year 2031 KM Expected Failure Pipes in D +F Now 10 years 20 years 30 years Condition Projections and Expected Failure N (new) P AB P BC P CD P DF (new) A B C D F PFO P O (out) Impacts of Failure P DB P FA Determine Future Condition Negligible Acceptable Reasonable Important Severity of the Asset Serious Acute

8 Condition Assessment Classifications Physical Condition condition of the physical infrastructure that allows it to meet the intended service level Demand/Capacity the ability of the physical infrastructure to meet service needs Functionality the ability of the physical infrastructure to meet program delivery needs Very Good Good Fair Fair Poor Poor Very Poor Poor These ratings are applied to each classification AA BB CC DD FF

9 Status of Our Infrastructure $20.0 $18.0 $16.0 $7.7 40% $14.0 $12.0 $ % $ % $ billions $10.0 $8.0 Good and Very Good Fair Poor and Very Poor $6.0 $4.0 $6.3 33% $ % $4.0 21% $2.0 $2.7 14% $3.1 16% $1.3 7% $0.0 Physical Condition Functionality Demand/ Capacity Assessment Classification

10 Deterioration & Renewal A B C D F Start of the Assets Life (Condition A) Deterioration after one year Deterioration after 15 years (Condition C) Deterioration after 25 years (Condition D) Age (Year) Deterioration 41 years A B C Condition B Renewal ($) New Life Cycle D F Age (Year) Condition D Extending Asset Life

11 Calculating Condition Over Time Transition from one stage to the other is computed using a deterioration curve. Curves are derived using historical data points and other relevant data. P AB P BC P CD P DF P FO N A B C D F O (out) P BD P AF

12 Renewal Strategy: Replace, Rehab and Maintenance Each type of asset has its own practical rehabilitation and maintenance actions Example: Local Sanitary Sewer 1- Open Cut and Replace $3.7 Million/km (F A) 2- Spot Open Cut and Reline (F B) $0.32 Million/km 3- Reline F A F B F C F D A B C D B A C B C A D C D B D A (D B) $0.26 Million/km F

13 Renewal Strategy - Roads Reconstruction D:F A Rehabilitation (Grind and overlay, Structural & overlay, etc.) C:D A Preventive maintenance Crack/Joint Seal Microsurfacing B A

14 Risk & Severity Risk: The possibility of suffering loss (or harm) and the impact that loss has on the involved party. Risk can be characterized in terms of its Severity where: Severity = Likelihood of Occurrence x Magnitude of the Impact Five Areas of Impact 1. Safety and Public Health (33%) 2. Growth (11%) 3. Environment (20%) 4. Preservation of the infrastructure (20%) 5. Services to People (16%)

15 Risk & Severity Severity = Likelihood of Occurrence x Magnitude of the Impact

16 RIMS Model Risk-Based Inventory Management System

17 Questions We All Ask What are the critical assets and how much investment is required to deal with them? How much money is required to keep all assets to the current average condition they are in today? What investment is required to minimize exposure, maintain a reasonable level of service, or achieve specific goals established by the Corporation?

18 Background Our Vision Based on work with SMA Consulting going back to 2003 Previous Models based in Excel and housed at SMA Senior Management Team Resolution: That the City undertake development of a user-friendly risk-based decision model in a software application to allocate revenues for infrastructure.

19 Objective of Project Development of a user friendly software application to optimize investment, based on risk and condition, at the strategic level (product not intended to prioritize individual projects)

20 Benefits of a Resources Allocation Model A quantitative approach for use in strategic planning and macro life cycle analysis Identify infrastructure areas with emerging issues and the need to increase inspection and assessment programs in those areas Identify areas that involve significant exposure to the City

21 RIMS Model - Inputs In General, the Following Inputs are Needed: Asset Hierarchy Asset Deterioration Curves/Models Asset Inventory (Quantity/Age/Condition) Impact of Failure Renewal Strategies (Applicability, Impact, $) Reconstruction Rehabilitation Maintenance Asset Importance Level

22 RIMS Model Levels of Performance An acceptable level of performance was developed based on the following four parameters: Condition Index Percentage of assets in condition F& D Percentage of assets in condition F Severity Sensitivity Analysis performed to analyze link between investment and these parameters

23 Sensitivity Analysis High Importance Assets

24 RIMS Model Levels of Performance Importance Level Minimum Condition Index Maximum % of Assets in D & F Maximum % of Assets in F Severity High % 0% 200 Medium-High % 2% 200 Medium % 5% 200 Medium-Low % 7% 200 Low % 10% 200

25 RIMS Model Genetic Algorithm Based on Research by Dr Hussien AL-Battaineh Consider codifying a solution into a string of information Based on Darwin s Theory of Natural Selection Genes propagate thru generations more readily if they contribute to more fit organisms. Fit organisms will breed more than unfit organisms thus passing more of their genes to the next generation The genes of a successive generation receive their genes as a result of a combination of the genes from their parents Mutation allows for divergence from the established gene pool. Mutations are random and may or may not increase the fitness of the organism. Fitness is defined based on the problem being solved

26 RIMS Model Optimization We can optimize investment under two assumptions

27 RIMS Model Levels of Analysis Single Asset Collectors Small Storm Sewers LRT Line Collection of Assets Different assets bounded by neighbourhood Assets enclosed in hierarchical classes

28 RIMS Model - Output Asset distribution over the different conditions A, B, C, D, and F Asset conditions at each year of the analysis, including condition index %F+D, %F, and Severity Proposed rehabilitation and replacement actions Proposed investment level each year

29 Output: Road - Condition Index

30 Output: Road - % in F&D

31 Output: Road- Severity

32 Output: Impact on Condition Index

33 Strategic Integration DECISION MAKING PROCESS & TOOLS Determine NEEDS Infrastructure Renewal Infrastructure Growth Service Renewal Service Growth Determine Financial CAPACITY Population Projection Debt Supply Tax Structure Establish DECISION- MAKING Process Goals & Criteria Setting Balance between Service & Infrastructure Balance between Renewal & Growth Renewal Prioritization Growth Prioritization Infrastructure Projection Model (Growth) Life Cycle Cost Model (Renewal) Revenue Projection Model Risk-based Resources Allocation Model (Renewal) Goal-based Prioritization Model (Growth) Service Projection Model Service / Infrastructure Impact Model Services Prioritization Model PRODUCT 10 Year Resource Plan