Hotel Industry Overview
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1 Hotel Industry Overview Carter Wilson Director, STR Analytics Lee County Visitors & Convention Bureau February 11, 2016
2 Total U.S. Review
3 Everything is awesome New Peak Apr 13 Previous Peak May 08 Trough Feb 10 Sept 08 Oh no Dec 06
4 So where are we now?
5 2016 What Wall Street Expects:
6 We all know how good predictions are
7 U.S. Hotels Year-End 2015 Metric No. Status Remarks OCC 65.6% 1.7% RECORD ADR $ % RECORD REVPAR $79 6.3% RECORD AVAIL ROOMS 1.8B 1.1% RECORD OCC ROOMS 1.2B 2.9% RECORD ROOM REV $143B 7.4% RECORD SOURCE: STR
8 Supply Growth Now Back Over 1%. Demand Growth Slows Supply % Change Demand % Change Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /2015
9 ADR Growth Steady. Occ Growth Decelerating Rapidly Occ % Change ADR % Change Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /2015
10 RevPAR Growth: It s Going To Be OK (but Not Great) Months 31 Mo 56 Months 70 Mo Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/ /2015
11 RevPAR Above Previous Peaks in Most Areas Total U.S., RevPAR compared to previous peak, 12 MMA
12 Submarkets with properties that had declines in Occ and ADR
13 Most properties saw growth in 2015 Positive 33.2% 47.5% Negative Positive Negative 8.5% 10.8%
14 RevPAR December 2015 YTD: Winner: CA. Loser: Oil Markets. Market RevPAR % Change Market RevPAR % Change Macon/Warner Robbins, GA 18.6 Ohio Area (1.9) San Jose/Santa Cruz, CA 17.3 Houston, TX (3.3) Oakland, CA 15.7 Texas North (4.1) Chattanooga, TN-GA 15.5 West Virginia (4.5) California North Central 14.9 New Mexico South (5.4) Fort Myers, FL 14.7 Augusta, GA-SC (6.7) Knoxville, TN 14.5 Oklahoma Area (10.0) Portland, OR 14.2 Texas South (11.4) Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 13.8 Texas West (19.2) Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 13.7 North Dakota (20.9) *December 2015 YTD RevPAR: Best / Worst Performing Markets
15 December 2015 YTD: High Occ = Higher ADR. (Except in NYC???) Market OCC % ADR % Change Nashville, TN Phoenix, AZ Seattle, WA Tampa/St Petersburg, FL Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA Washington, DC-MD-VA Oahu Island, HI New Orleans, LA Houston, TX New York, NY * December 2015 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets
16 Chain Scale Review
17 Scales: Demand Growth Healthy. Upscale Supply Increases Supply % Change Demand % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, December 2015 YTD
18 Scales RevPAR Composition: ADR Driven ADR % Change Occupancy % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, December 2015 YTD
19 Scales: Upper End Hotels Are Very Busy Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *OCC %, by Scale, December YTD 2015 & 2014
20 Segmentation
21 Transient ADR Growth Subsides Despite High Occupancies 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Demand % Change ADR % Change *Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /2015
22 Group Demand Growth Slows Rapidly 7% 6% 5% Demand % Change ADR % Change 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% -2% *Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /2015
23 Pipeline
24 US Pipeline: Construction Today Will Impact 2016 / 2017 Phase % Change In Construction % Final Planning % Planning % Under Contract % *Total US Pipeline, by Phase, 000s Rooms, December 2015 and 2014
25 Limited Service Construction Has Been Strong For 2 Years % Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated *US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction, 000s Rooms, by Scale, December 2015
26 Construction In Top 26 Markets: 20 With 2%+ Of Supply Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing Oahu Island, HI % Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA % St Louis, MO-IL % Atlanta, GA 1, % San Francisco/San Mateo, CA % New Orleans, LA % Orlando, FL 2, % Detroit, MI % Las Vegas, NV 3, % Phoenix, AZ 1, % Chicago, IL 2, % Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 1, % Washington, DC-MD-VA 3, % San Diego, CA 1, % Denver, CO 1, % Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2, % Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 4, % Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 1, % Boston, MA 2, % Philadelphia, PA-NJ 2, % Nashville, TN 1, % Dallas, TX 4, % Seattle, WA 2, % Houston, TX 5, % Miami/Hialeah, FL 3, % New York, NY 14, % *US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, December 2015
27 U.S. Forecast
28 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) Outlook 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast Supply 1.7% 1.9% Demand 2.3% 2.1% Occupancy 0.6% 0.2% ADR 4.4% 4.3% RevPAR 5.0% 4.5%
29 Lee County & Florida
30 Welcome to Lee County
31 Lee County At A Glance: Impressive! % Change # of Hotels 134 Hotel Rooms 11,850 Occupancy 70.6% 6.5% ADR $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $441m 15.6% Lee County, FL- Key Statistics; YTD Dec 2015
32 Demand Soars; Supply Growth Not A Threat At This Time 10.0 Supply Demand 9.7% % 3.7% % Lee County, FL; Supply & Demand% Change, 12 MMA, 01/07 12/15
33 Not much in the pipeline Project Name Rooms Harborside Event Center Hotel 200 TownePlace Suites Cape Coral Estero 114 Drury Inn & Suites Fort Myers 180 Holiday Inn Resort Fort Myers Beach 200
34 15 Rate Growth Remains Steady; Occ growth will slow 10 ADR OCC 6.5% 5 7.7% Lee County, FL; ADR & Occupancy % Change, 12 MMA, 01/07 12/15
35 Weekday Occupancy: Stronger than ever % % 68% % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Lee County, FL Weekday Occupancy by Month; 2007, 2013, 2014, 2015
36 Weekday ADR: March Rate Peaks YOY $220 $200 $180 $ $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Lee County FL; Weekday ADR by Month, 2007, 2013, 2014, & 2015
37 Weekend Occupancy: Stronger Shoulder Season % % 77% 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Lee County, FL Weekend Occupancy by Month; 2007, 2013, 2014, & 2015
38 Weekend ADR: Huge jump in March; Fall remains tight $230 $210 $ $170 $150 $130 $110 $90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Lee County FL; Weekend ADR by Month, 2007, 2013, 2014, & 2015
39 High Season = Maximizing Rate MARCH Weekday Weekend Lee County, FL; ADR % Chng; Weekday & Weekend; March only
40 Low Season = Rate still great in SEPT Weekday Weekend Lee County, FL; ADR % Chng; Weekday & Weekend; September only
41 Has Seasonality Changed? A Look at Occupancy Occupancy Swings: 42.2% 45.5% 44.6% 37.7% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Lee County FL; Total Occupancy by Month, 2007, 2013, 2014, & 2015
42 Has Seasonality Changed? A Look at RevPAR 2007 $ $ RevPAR Swings (%): 297% 339% 334% 275% $155 $130 $105 $80 $55 $30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Lee County FL; Total RevPAR by Month, 2007, 2013, 2014, & 2015
43 Segmentation Glance: Group Transient Contract Segmentation
44 Total U.S.: Transient Occupancy Share Increases % 43% Group Transient 65% 35% Transient and Group Occupancy as Share of Total OCC, 2005 and 2015 (Share does not include contract)
45 While Transient Continues To Grow Share of Occupancy.. U.S. Transient and Group Occupancy Mix of Total OCC Dec 2003 thru Dec 2015
46 Lee Co. Occupancy Mix Transient Driven Lee County, FL; Transient and Group Occupancy Mix of Total OCC; January 2010 thru Dec 2015
47 #3
48 All Counties Selling at Least 6 Of 10 Room Nights Select Florida Counties: Actual Occupancy %; YTD Dec 2015
49 Rate Leader = Monroe County $268 $196 $216 $123 $131 $136 $145 $166 Select Florida Counties : Actual ADR $; YTD Dec 2015
50 Lee County With Highest OCC Growth YOY Lee 6.5 Pinellas 5.2 Broward 1.2 Manatee 0.9 Collier 0.6 Miami-Dade -0.1 Palm Beach -0.2 Monroe -2.2 Select Florida Counties: OCC % Change; YTD Dec 2015
51 Most Seeing 6 to 9% Rate Growth YOY Miami-Dade 5.7 Monroe 6.0 Broward 6.3 Palm Beach 6.7 Collier 7.0 Pinellas 7.5 Lee 7.7 Manatee 10.8 Select Florida Counties: ADR % Change; YTD Dec 2015
52 Lee County RevPAR Growth Leader Lee 14.7 Pinellas 13.1 Manatee 11.8 Collier 7.7 Broward 7.7 Palm Beach 6.5 Miami-Dade 5.6 Monroe 3.7 Select Florida Counties: RevPAR % Change; YTD Dec 2015
53 Lee County Forecast
54 Lee County Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) Outlook % Change Value Occupancy 1.2% 71.5% ADR 5.9% $ RevPAR 7.2% $109.84
55 In sum.. (for now)
56 But if you like to worry (yes, I m looking at you)
57 Things to be aware of - Airbnb, et al - New supply - Too much oil in the world - Junk bonds - Transient rate growth slowing - Net RevPAR growth negative?
58 Recap: - Life is good! : Records shattered - Rate growth driving profits - New supply still low but creeping up - There s big difference between a soft landing and a crash
59
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