Tees Valley Quarterly Economic Review

Transcription

1 Tees Valley Quarterly Economic Review September 2015 An up to date analysis of economic, business and labour market trends across the Tees Valley 1

2 Contents Summary Economy and business - UK Economy (q) - Regional trade in goods (q) - Manufacturing productivity (a) - Business investment (q) - New businesses (m) Labour market - Headline labour market (m & q) - Hours worked (q) - Skills shortages (q) - Demographic change (a) Further information Notes: (a) = data released annually, (q) = data released quarterly, (m) = data released monthly Underlined blue text is hyperlinked

3 Summary Key points Tees Valley manufacturing sector boosted by export growth and relatively high productivity levels Business investment expected to continue to strengthen Rate of enterprise start-up increase moderates slightly Tightening labour market leading to significant increases in the average number of hours worked per week Continued rise in job numbers becoming constrained by skills shortages and demographic change

4 UK GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government spending + Net Exports = Sum of sectoral output *Household spending dominated by service sector output and imports as opposed to UK Manufacturing GCF e.g. business investment spread across all sectors UK Economy Growth in the UK Manufacturing sector has been constrained by relatively poor export performance The chart below shows how different forms of spending map to productive output. Total spending Expenditure in the chart below will be met by Output in the form of either domestic sectoral production or imports. Note that the chart indicates the relative size of each expenditure and output sector (the two y-axes) and the strength of the relationships between spending and sectors (the coloured connecting shadings in the centre of the chart). Expenditure growth over the past few years has been dominated by increases in private consumption / household spending* rather than exports. This is a key reason why output growth has been concentrated in the Service sector rather than Manufacturing**. Exports of goods & services correlate across all domestic sectors and includes significant import component Mapping between expenditure components and output sectors Sources/notes: Bank of England Inflation Report, August **Strong correlation between UK Manufacturing output and exports Construction output closely linked with investment Business services output strongly correlated with both household spending and exports Public sector output dominated by government and to a lesser extent household spending With imports greater than exports the country is presently running a trade deficit

5 Regional trade in goods But North East goods exports continue to buck the national trend NE Export destinations, North East and UK 2015 Q2 ( m) North East goods exports were 3.05bn in the second quarter of 2015 (April to June), down slightly from 3.20bn in 2015 Q1. However, quarter on quarter estimates can be volatile so aggregated annual data is generally used to compare performance over time. UK Annualised trade data Regional exports totalled 12.5bn in the 12 months to June North East imports totalled 8.5bn and there was therefore a regional trade in goods surplus of 4.0bn. This trade balance was unchanged from the year to June North East exports were up by 3.9% in the year to June 2015 compared with the year previously. This contrasts with a decrease of 2.6% for the UK as a whole. Quarterly goods exports component sections for the past two years, North East ( million) The EU was the most frequent destination for North East goods with 57% going to a European Union country. This percentage was far higher than the national average of 46%. Similarly, non-eu European countries were a more common destination for North East goods (11%) than across the UK as a whole (7%). Machinery & Transport, Chemicals and Manufactured Goods typically make up around 95% of North East exports. The value of Manufactured Goods exports has drifted lower over the past two years whilst Machinery & Transport and Chemicals are somewhat higher. Sources/notes: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics

6 Manufacturing productivity And Tees Valley s Manufacturing sector maintains its competitive edge Manufacturing sector productivity and contribution to total GVA, averages GVA per employee ( p.a.) - LHS Manufacturing GVA as a % of total GVA - RHS Key points The Tees Valley has comparative strengths in both manufacturing and its associated engineering service sectors. In 2013, there were around 3½ times as many engineering service businesses in the Tees Valley as the national average would suggest. Similarly there are almost 50% more employees working in the engineering services sector than in the sector nationally. The Tees Valley engineering services sector is, in contrast to the manufacturing sector as a whole, dominated by relatively small employers. In 2013, 95% of Tees Valley engineering service firms employed fewer than five workers compared to 87% nationally. Productivity in the Tees Valley Manufacturing sector, defined in the chart above in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA) per employee, is significantly higher than in other northern city region areas and remains marginally above the English average. Additionally, the Tees Valley Manufacturing sector contributes a larger share of GVA than many other areas. 14% of the Tees Valley economy derives from Manufacturing compared to around 10% nationally. Notes: ONS, UK Business enterprises, LEP GVA, BRES employees, Annual Business Survey (ABS), TVU. LQ is location quotient compared with England. Engineering Services sector is SIC 7112 Tees Valley Manufacturing and Engineering Services sectors, 2013 TV Business enterprises Manufacturing Engineering Services Number 905 1,260 LQ TV Employees Number 24,500 4,200 LQ UK productivity ( p.a.)* 62,300 73,900 *All sector UK productivity, calculated here from the ABS as agva divided by average annual employment, was around 45,000 in Productivity is typically around a third higher in the manufacturing sector and two-thirds higher in engineering services.

7 Investment over the past year and intentions for the next Primary source of investment finance over the next year Business investment Stronger business investment expected to drive economic growth over the coming year Business investment is the key element of Gross Capital Formation (see UK Economy slide) and a key driver of sustainable economic growth. August 2015 saw the release of a survey on investment intentions conducted by Bank of England Regional Agents. Drivers of investment intentions Over half of firms cited efficiency and productivity gains as key reasons why they expected to increase investment over the coming year. Investment finance is most often sourced from internally-generated funds. 70% of small firms generate their investment funds from within their own company. Larger firms are by far the most likely to source funds from capital market finance. Close to 3 in 10 large firms seek investment finance in this manner. Firms reported a modest increase in capital investment over the past year with expectations consistent with stronger spending over the coming twelve months. The survey indicated broad-based investment growth over the next year for all sectors. Uncertainty cited as a significant drag on investment intentions. Sources/notes: Bank of England Agents summary of business conditions, August 2015

8 New businesses There were 241 new business registrations in Tees Valley in August down a little on July New registrations and stock of companies registered in Tees Valley, 2015 New company registrations (RHS) Tax year ends on 5 April Stock of companies (LHS) Companies House publish a database containing data on all live companies every month. For each company, the database contains details of the company s registered address. Based on the postcode of the registered address, we have analysed active companies located within the Tees Valley. However, the registered address may not be same as the address of operation the company may be registered at the home address of the owner or at the address of lawyers. Larger companies may have operations in the Tees Valley but be registered at a central address elsewhere. Source: Companies House and TVU In Tees Valley there were 18,361 active enterprises registered at Companies House at the end of August Apart from July, this figure has grown every month this year with an average of close to 300 new registrations per month across Tees Valley as a whole. All districts have seen significant numbers of new companies registering at Companies House. The first eight months of 2015 saw a total of 2,275 new enterprises register in Tees Valley. Cumulative new company registrations, 2015 Further TVU analysis of business statistics is available here A district breakdown of this total is shown here.

9 Headline labour market Unemployment falls no longer translating into increasing employment The latest Tees Valley employment rate stood at 67.4%, up by 0.3% on the previous period (Jan 14-Dec 14). This compared to the UK rate of 72.6% and represents an employment gap of 21,700 that is the number of additional Tees Valley residents who would need to be in employment in order to match the present UK employment rate. The headline ILO (International Labour Organisation) unemployment rate is now 8.9%, down by 1.0% on the previous period (Jan 14-Dec 14). The UK rate fell by 0.2% to stand at 6.0%. There are around 13,500 more Tees Valley residents economically inactive than would be the case if the area could match the present national economic inactivity rate. This number has risen by two-thirds in six months. Of the economically inactive working age population the four main components are looking after home/family (27,000), long-term sick (approx. 26,000), students (24,000) and retired (17,000). Indicator Latest period Tees Valley United Kingdom Level Rate (%) Change on year (level) Change on qtr (level) Level (000s) Rate (%) Change on year (000s) Change on qtr (000s) Employment* Apr 14-Mar , ,200 1,700 30, ILO Unemployment** Apr 14-Mar 15 28, ,100-3,400 1, Economically active*** Apr 14-Mar , ,300-1,900 31, Economically inactive*** Of which: Doesn t want a job Wants a job Apr 14-Mar , ,700 2,200 9, ,900 23, Claimant unemployment* August , , Sources/notes: ONS, NOMIS, APS. *Numbers aged 16+ and rate of working age population between **Numbers aged 16+ and rate of economically active. ***Numbers aged and rate of working age population between Note that newly reweighted APS estimates consistent with the Census 2011 were published on 18 March. All APS figures in this report now reflect the reweighted estimates. 3,900 1,800 2, ,992 2,

10 Hours worked Increases in labour demand now being met by higher hours rather than additional employees Cumulative change since post-recession employment low The bulk of workers almost 200,000 or 73% of employed Tees Valley residents work between 10 and 44 hours per week Total employment up around 12,000 since post-recession low in Oct 10-Sep 11 Employees working over 44 hours account for the bulk of the employment increase The number of residents who work between 10 and 44 hours per week is the same now as it was in the post recession total employment low point in Oct 10-Sep 11 The rise in average hours worked over the past three years is also reflected by the increase in the proportion of employed residents classed as working full-time*. 72.2% of workers were full-time in Oct 10- Sep 11 compared to 74.1% in Apr 14-Mar 15 Source/Notes: ONS, APS. *Survey respondent own definition of either full or parttime working. Almost one quarter of all workers put in more than 44 hours per week Tees Valley Apr 2014 Mar 2015 UK

11 Recession Not all unemployed people are eligible to claim JSA. Analysis of the wider headline ILO measure of unemployment suggests that the qualification levels of the wider stock of unemployed are closer to those of the workforce as a whole. However, the proportion of highly qualified unemployed people is only around half that for the total population of working age. 28.1% of Tees Valley residents aged were qualified to NVQ4 or above in 2014 compared to just 14.1% of the unemployed. Skills shortages Compounded by increasing scarcity of qualified labour amongst the unemployed Tees Valley JSA claimants whose usual occupation is high skill Sources/Notes: ONS, NOMIS. High skill occupation defined here as either Managerial, Professional or Associate Professional. Low skill occupations defined here as Sales and Customer service, Process, plant & machine operatives and Elementary Occupations The total stock of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimants is now close to its prerecession low of 13,088 (October 2004) but there are now far fewer high skilled claimants than in the past just 555 in July JSA claimants whose usual occupation can be classed as low skill now make up over 80% of all claimants, up from typically two-thirds prerecession. Whilst unemployment has fallen across the majority of occupations, claimants whose usual occupation is the low skill Sales and Customer Service has been increasing and now over one half of all claimants (6,940 in July 2015) have this as their usual occupation. Tees Valley ILO unemployment by qualification level, 2012 and 2014 Source: ONS, APS, TVU

12 Demographic change And a declining working age population Changes in the structure of the working age population have impacts on fertility, employment, education and training, and housing needs In 2014, there were 3.1 people of working age for every person over State Pension Age, this is projected to decrease slightly to 3.0 by 2024, and fall to 2.6 by The changes to State Pension Age help retain this ratio. 62.6% of the 2014 population were of working age. This is the lowest proportion since the 1970s. The most recent ONS projections show this falling further, to 59.2% in 2024 and to 56.4% in Tees Valley working age resident population, 2004 to 2024 Over estimation of projection = 2014-based projections likely to be lower still. Mid-year population estimates Projected population As a result of migration and cohort size, the working age population is projected to be 10,500 lower in 2024 than in 2014, including: 9,000 fewer people aged 16-24, 18,500 fewer people aged 45-54, 7,500 more people aged By 2034, there is projected to be a further 11,000 fewer residents of working age. Young adults are the most mobile group, with nearly half of all moves historically being made by those aged 16 to 29. Net internal (UK) migration flow of the working age population is OUT of the Tees Valley, 1,200 per year, particularly amongst young adults (16-34). In contrast, net international migration flow of the working age population is INTO the Tees Valley, 550 per year, mainly young adults. The working age population can be increased by the Tees Valley retaining its young people and attracting working age migration. Sources/notes: ONS Mid-year estimates 2004 to 2014 and 2012-based sub-national population projections. Migration flows are a 5 year average (2009/10 to 2013/14).

13 Further information Web links and data sources Tees Valley Unlimited Tees Valley Statistics Provides detailed economic, labour market, skills and demographic reports, including upcoming and recently published: Analysis of Apprenticeship starts Quarterly Apprenticeship vacancies Monthly Claimant Count unemployment Population projections to 2032 Gross Disposable Household Income in Tees Valley Household income estimates Job Vacancies Migration analysis Tees Valley Interactive Area Profile with detailed current and historic data on the economy and labour market by ward, output area and district (including 2011 Census data) Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report HMRC Regional Trade Statistics ONS, NOMIS Labour Market Profiles Tees Valley Darlington Hartlepool Middlesbrough Redcar & Cleveland Stockton-on-Tees Next edition: December 2015 Please contact us if you have any subject areas that you would like to be considered for inclusion in the December edition. For additional information please contact: Will Haywood Business & Economic Intelligence Officer Tel: