Voting and Elections

Transcription

1 Voting and Elections

2 The Two Step Election Process Primaries: Held by the parties to select their nominees. Organized on the state level. Generally held in the spring, but dates vary state to state. Democrats run only against Democrats and Republicans against Republicans. Lower and more partisan voter turn out Open vs. Closed Primary Fall Elections: Between winners of primary elections and any third party candidates who qualify to be on the ballot.

3 The Presidential Campaign I. The Invisible Primary (aka. the Silent Primary) II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) III. Nominating Conventions (summer) IV. The Fall Campaign V. The Electoral Vote VI. Inauguration

4 The Presidential Campaign I. The Invisible Primary (aka. the Silent Primary) War chests and front runner status. Visibility and credibility. California has seen a flurry of presidential campaign activity in recent weeks - most of it under the radar fundraising events. McCain crisscrossed the state the state last week without a single public event, as did Gov. Mitt Romney. Clinton arrives in CA next week but has so far announced no pubic events. She will do three back to back fundraisers on March 25th. Quarterly Reporting: (Mar/Jun/Sept 07) SF Chron. 3/18/07 Hilary Clinton: $26/27/27mil Mitt Romney: $23/14/9mil. Barak Obama: $25/33/20 mil. Rudolf Giuliani: $15/ 17/11 mil. John Edwards: $14/9/12 mil. John McCain: $12.5./11/6 mil. Huckabee: under $9 mil. for all of 07

5 The Presidential Campaign I. The Invisible Primary (aka. the Silent Primary) War chests and front runner status. Visibility and credibility. By Mar. 30th: Clinton: $26 mil. 50,000 donors $4.2 mil. online Obama: $25.6 mil. 100,000 donors (50% online) $6,2 mil. online

6

7 The Presidential Campaign II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) Purpose of Presidential Caucuses and Primaries: - to select delegates to the national party conventions - number of delegates per state based on state population - person with a majority of delegates will win the nomination: Democrats: 2,025 delegates to win Republicans: 1,191 delegates to win (Super Delegates) (24% of all delegates) gain position through office rather than election can vote for whomever they chose many announce (pledge) who they are voting for

8 The Presidential Campaign II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) Purpose of Presidential Primaries: State/Party Variation: open vs. closed formats caucus vs. primary election (about 9 states have caucuses rather than primaries.)

9 The Presidential Campaign II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) Purpose of Presidential Primaries: State/Party Variation: open vs. closed formats caucus vs. primary election winner take all vs proportional system

10 The Presidential Campaign II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) Purpose of Presidential Primaries: State/Party Variation: open vs. closed formats caucus vs. primary election winner take all vs proportional system staggered dates:

11 The Presidential Campaign II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) Staggered timing and Frontloading: Iowa Caucus: Jan 3rd New Hampshire Primary: Jan 8th Michigan January 15th South Carolina/Nevada Jan 19th Florida January 29th Super Tuesday Feb. 5 (seven states including: CA, NY, MO, VT) Wisconsin/Hawaii: Feb. 19 Ohio, Texas, RI, Vermont March 4th Pennsylvania: April 22nd N.C./Indiana: May 6th Kentucky, Oregon, WV

12 Problems with the Current Nominating System Too much power to Iowa and N.H. Neither is particularly representative of the country - few Latinos or Blacks in either state Not enough time between primaries, for candidates to adjust, artificial bounce too high. Super Tuesday places too much on big buck candidates that can afford a big media blitz. Election season too long. Too much lag time between primaries and general election.

13 Coming Up With a Sensible Primary Season National Primary One big nation wide primary held on one day. Problems: Favors big money candidates. Rural areas (states) likely to be neglected. Regional Primary Divide nation into 4 regions and rotate the order every 4 years. Problems Races likely to be settled after only 2 regions vote. Candidates wait until cycle favors them. ie conservative candidate would wait until the South goes first, giving them an advantage.

14 Coming Up With a Sensible Primary Season Cluster Plan 4 primaries, staggered a month apart. March: 12 smallest states vote April: Next 13 biggest states May: Next 13 biggest June: 12 biggest states vote Rationale: Preserves retail politics early on in the election Shortens overall campaign season Still allows campaigning time between elections Even last group to vote is likely to play a role

15 The Presidential Campaign I. The Invisible Primary (aka. the Silent Primary) II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) III. Nominating Conventions (summer) pointless T.V. Affairs? possibility of a divided convention (majority needed to win) speeches and platforms the role call? the VP pick

16 The Presidential Campaign I. The Invisible Primary (aka. the Silent Primary) II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) III. Nominating Conventions (summer) IV. The Fall Campaign: Public Funding: $85 million provided to the nominees as long as they agree to not spend beyond that. Of course, the parties and 527 groups can continue their own activities on behalf of candidates. Selective campaigning - must win states not votes Battleground States. First Tuesday in November Do Campaigns Matter?

17 The Presidential Campaign I. The Invisible Primary (aka. the Silent Primary) II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) III. Nominating Conventions (summer) IV. The Fall Campaign: Public Funding: $85 million provided to the nominees as long as they agree to not spend beyond that. Of course, the parties and 527 groups can continue their own activities on behalf of candidates. Selective campaigning - must win states not votes Battleground States. First Tuesday in November Do Campaigns Matter?

18 The Presidential Campaign I. The Invisible Primary (aka. the Silent Primary) II. Caucuses / Primary Elections (winter/spring) III. Nominating Conventions (summer) IV. The Fall Campaign: V. The Electoral Vote (officially on Dec. 15th) Each state s electors = number the state has in Congress CA: 53 (House) + 2 (Senate)= 535 WY: 1 (House) + 2 Senate) =3 (Who is overrepresented?) Winner take all system: win the state and you get ALL the states electoral votes. If no single candidate wins a majority, election goes to House of Representatives VI. Inauguration: 12:00 noon January 20th. lame ducks until then

19 Reforming the Electoral College Should California allocate its electoral votes proportionally as does Maine? The 5 State Plan:

20 Voting: The Expansion of Franchise White Male Property holders All White Men (done state by state in late 1820 s/30 s) All men (15th Amendment, 1870 /Voting Rights Act, 1965) Men and Women (19th Amendment, 1920) Even 18 years olds (26th Amendment, 1971) Yet Declining Turnout

21 Causes of Low Turnout Two Party System - lack of meaningful choice Tuesdays? Registration hassle Ballot Too Complicated: controller, board of equalization, a garble of propositions and measures Disillusionment/Sense of Marginalization Good times

22 Who Votes? Education: Grad Degree:73% College Diploma: 53% High school: 38% Income As income increases voting rate increases Race Little difference between Black and White when income is factored. Hispanic and Asians are less likely to vote. Gender Women vote at a higher rate than men. Age year olds 36% year olds 75%

23 Who Votes? (the 2008 primaries) Age and Education In the 2008 primaries, the youth vote increased 3 to 4 fold in most states. 79% of young voters who voted on Super Tuesday attended college. 1/4 of youth with college experience voted. Only 1/14 of non-college youth voted. Center for Research on civil Education Exit Poll

24 Why Vote? Voting is not an act of self-government. Voting, as it now functions is an act of choosing people who will govern you. Even defenders of voting write about privilege and duty, not about effects or making a difference. It is an act, done in private, in order to legitimate an individual whom you did not choose, to govern in a system you certainly did not create and may not even like. Non-voters that are on the edge of society and understand that the political system is neither of their making nor to their liking. For them, it would be a foolish sign of support to vote. If you do not fit readily into the middle-class categories (in terms or race, creed, color, ideology, income), I can think of no good reason to vote. Mark Shuman: Rules of the Game

25 Alexis De Tocqueville on Voting The central government does not tyrannize, but it compresses, enervates, extinguishes and stupefies a people till the nation is reduced to be noting better than a flock of timid and industrious animals of which the government is the shepherd. The people shake off their state of dependence just long enough to select their master, and then relapse into it again.

26 Final Thoughts - Do We Need Electoral Reform? Standardized Voting Machines? A National System? Primary Reform?: National primary Proportional or winner take all Open or closed Caucus or direct vote A Shorter Season? Public Finance Reform? The Electoral College?