The Thai Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to 2017

Transcription

1 The Thai Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to 2017 John Carpenter House, 7 Carmelite Street, London EC4Y 0BS, United Kingdom, Tel: +44 (0)

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction What is this Report About? Definitions Summary Methodology SDI Terrorism Index About Strategic Defence Intelligence () Executive Summary Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast Thai defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of % during the forecast period Modernization initiatives, security threats, an arms race with neighboring countries, and border disputes are expected to drive defense spending Military spending as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase over the forecast period Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation The share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is expected to increase during the forecast period The army accounts for the largest share of defense expenditure The country is expected to spend US$ billion on its army over the forecast period Naval budget projected to grow at a CAGR of % during the forecast period Air force budget expected to be US$ billion by Thailand to spend US$ billion on support services over the forecast period Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast Homeland security (HLS) expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of % during HLS expenditure to be driven by the country s efforts to counter security threats and civil unrest Thailand faces a high level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations Benchmarking with Key Global Markets Thai defense expenditure is expected to remain modest during the forecast period Thailand has a low per capita defense expenditure Thailand faces a high level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators Demand for naval defense equipment expected to increase Modernization of the armed forces will create demand for advanced defense systems Demand for land-based defense systems expected to increase Potential demand for frigates and its MRO services Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

3 Undeveloped domestic defense industry drives imports Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period Sweden and Ukraine dominated Thai defense imports during Aircraft accounted for a majority of defense imports during Export Market Dynamics Thailand has limited export capabilities Industry Dynamics Five Forces Analysis Bargaining power of supplier: low Bargaining power of buyer: high Barrier to entry: low to medium Intensity of rivalry: high Threat of substitution: high Market Entry Strategy Market Regulation Offsets are mandatory for all procurements exceeding US$9.5 million The Thai defense sector is partially regulated Market Entry Route Biennial defense exhibition provides an attractive entry route Foreign equipment manufacturers enter the market through direct commercial sales Foreign defense organizations venture into the market by partnering with a domestic defense firm Key Challenges Corruption and a lack of transparency impedes the growth of Thailand s defense industry Presence of indirect offset hampers the growth of the domestic defense sector Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights Competitive Landscape Overview Key Domestic Companies Avia Saab Technologies Co. Ltd.: overview Avia Saab Technologies Co. Ltd.: products Avia Saab Technologies Co. Ltd: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Avia Saab Technologies Co. Ltd.: recent contract wins Avia Saab Technologies: financial analysis Avia Satcom: overview Avia Satcom: products and services Avia Satcom: alliances Avia Satcom: recent contract wins Infowave (Thailand) Co. Ltd.: overview

4 Infowave (Thailand) Co. Ltd.: defense products and services Infowave (Thailand) Co., Ltd.: alliances Business Environment and Country Risk Demographics & Social Statistics Population Female Population - Male Economic Performance Business Confidence index Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP Debt Service Ratio Debt Service Ratio Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices External Debt as a percentage of GDP Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP Foreign Direct Investment GDP at Purchasing Power Parity GDP, Constant Prices(Local Currency) GDP, Constant Prices (US$ Billion) GDP, Current Prices(Local Currency) GDP, Current Prices (US$ billion) General Government Final Consumption Expenditure Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices Imports of goods and services Inflation, Average Consumer Prices Interest Rate (Lending) Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Bn) Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billions) Market Cap of Stock Exchange US$- Exchange Rate (Annual Average) US$- Exchange Rate (EoP) Wholesale Price Index Energy and Utilities Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity Crude Oil Distillation Capacity Natural Gas Consumption Natural Gas Imports

5 Natural Gas Production Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation Net Hydroelectric Power Generation Petroleum, Consumption Petroleum, Production Minerals Coal Consumption Coal Production Social & Political Risk Political Stability Index Transparency Index Technology Fixed Broadband Internet Subscribers Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development as % of GDP Patents Granted Appendix Contact Us About SDI Disclaimer

6 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Thai Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), Figure 2: Thai Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), Figure 3: Thai GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP (%), Figure 4: Thai GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP (%), Figure 5: Thai Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Figure 6: Thai Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Figure 7: Thai Defense Budget Allocation (%), Figure 8: Thai Defense Budget Allocation (%), Figure 9: Thai Army Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Figure 10: Thai Army Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Figure 11: Thai Navy Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Figure 12: Thai Navy Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Figure 13: Thai Air Force Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Figure 14: Thai Air Force Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Figure 15: Thai Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Figure 16: Thai Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Figure 17: Thai Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), Figure 18: Thai Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, Figure 20: SDI Terrorism Index, Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets vs Figure 22: Defense Expenditure of the World s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2012 and Figure 23: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), Figure 24: Per Capita Defense Expenditure of the Largest Military Spenders in the World (US$), Figure 25: Thai Defense Imports (US$ million), Figure 26: Thai Defense Imports by Country (%), Figure 27: Thai Defense Imports by Category (%), Figure 28: Industry Dynamics Porter s Five Forces Analysis Figure 29: Avia Saab Technologies- Revenue Trend Analysis (SEK Million), Figure 30: Avia Saab Technologies- Operating Profit Trend Analysis (SEK Million), Figure 31: Avia Saab Technologies- Net Profit Trend Analysis (SEK Million), Figure 32: Thai Population Female (In Millions), Figure 33: Thai Population Male (In Millions), Figure 34: Thai Business Confidence index, Figure 35: Thai Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency (In Billions), Figure 36: Thai Construction Output, Current Prices,US Dollars (In Billions), Figure 37: Thai Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP, Figure 38: Thai Debt Service Ratio, Figure 39: Thai Deposit Interest Ratio, Figure 40: Thai Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion), Figure 41: Thai External Debt as a Percentage of GDP, Figure 42: Thai Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP, Figure 43: Thai Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion), Figure 44: Thai GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (US$ Billion), Figure 45: Thai GDP at Constant Prices (Local Currency Billion), Figure 46: Thai GDP at Constant Prices(US$ Billion), Figure 47: Thai GDP at Current Prices(Local Currency Billion), Figure 48: Thai GDP at Current Prices(US$ Billion), Figure 49: Thai General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (US$ Billion), Figure 50: Thai Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices (US$ Billion), Figure 51: Thai Imports of Goods and Services (current US$ Billion), Figure 52: Thai Inflation, Average Consumer Prices, Figure 53: Thai Interest Rate (Lending), Figure 54: Thai Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Billion), Figure 55: Thai Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billion), Figure 56: Thai Market Cap of Stock Exchange (US$ Million),

7 Figure 57: Thai US$- Exchange Rate (Annual Average), Figure 58: Thai US$- Exchange Rate (EoP), Figure 59: Thai Wholesale Price Index, Figure 60: Thai Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatt), Figure 61: Thai Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels Per Cal Day), Figure 62: Thai Natural Gas Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet), Figure 63: Thai Natural Gas Imports (Billion Cubic Feet), Figure 64: Thai Natural Gas Production (Billion Cubic Feet), Figure 65: Thai Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), Figure 66: Thai Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), Figure 67: Thai Net Hydroelectric Power Generation(Billion Kilowatthours), Figure 68: Thai Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), Figure 69: Thai Petroleum Production (Thousand Barrels Per Day), Figure 70: Thai Coal Consumption (Thousand Short Tons), Figure 71: Thai Coal Production (Thousand Short Tons), Figure 72: Thai Political Stability Index, Figure 73: Thai Transparency Index, Figure 74: Thai Fixed Broadband Internet Subscribers (Thousands), Figure 75: Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development as % of GDP, Figure 76: Patents Granted,

8 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Thai Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), Table 2: Thai Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), Table 3: Thai GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP (%), Table 4: Thai GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP (%), Table 5: Thai Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Table 6: Thai Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Table 7: Thai Defense Budget Allocation (%), Table 8: Thai Defense Budget Allocation (%), Table 9: Thai Army Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Table 10: Thai Army Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Table 11: Thai Navy Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Table 12: Thai Navy Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Table 13: Thai Air Force Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Table 14: Thai Air Force Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Table 15: Thai Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Table 16: Thai Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), Table 17: Thai Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), Table 18: Thai Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets vs Table 20: SDI Terrorism Index, Table 21: Defense Offset Regulations in Thailand Table 22: Avia Saab Technologies Co. Ltd. Product Focus Table 23: Avia Saab Technologies Co. Ltd.: - Recent Contract Wins Table 24: Avia Satcom Product Focus Table 25: Avia Satcom Alliances Table 26: Avia Satcom - Recent Contract Wins Table 27: Infowave (Thailand) Co. Ltd Product Focus Table 28: Infowave (Thailand) Co. Ltd - Alliances

9 1. Executive Summary Thai defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of % during the forecast period Thai military spending, estimated at US$ billion in 2012, has increased at a CAGR of % during the review period and is projected to register a CAGR of % during the forecast period, to reach US$ billion by Thai defense expenditure is expected to be driven by modernization initiatives in addition to border disputes, security threats, and an arms race with neighboring countries; moreover, years of defense budget underfunding has created the need for a comprehensive modernization program for equipment including fighter aircraft, military helicopters, armored carrier vehicles, and diesel submarines. To enable this, Thailand is aiming to increase defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP from % in 2012 to % in During the review period an average of % of the nation s defense spending was earmarked for revenue expenses, while an average of % was spent on capital expenditure; however, during the forecast period the share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is expected to increase to an average of % as the country focuses on replacing the existing fleet of obsolete military hardware. As a result of this increase in capital expenditure, defense equipment suppliers will witness a surge in demand for advanced defense systems such as fighter aircraft, military helicopters, armored vehicles, surveillance equipment, warships, and submarines. 9

10 2. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities Thailand, the third largest country in Southeast Asia, has one of the fastest-growing defense markets in the world. As a consequence of years of defense budget underfunding, Thailand s military spending is anticipated to increase during the forecast period as the country s armed forces undergo an extensive modernization program and, as a result, the country s military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase. Thai defense expenditure is expected to be driven by factors such as security threats, modernization plans, border disputes, and an ongoing arms race within the Southeast Asian region; additionally, the country is increasing its HLS spending in order to counter threats posed by pirates, terrorists, and internal rebel groups. Defense equipment suppliers and subcontractors can expect demand for aerial, land, and naval defense systems, and the HLS market will witness a surge in demand for surveillance and biometric identification systems, and riot and crowd control equipment. 10

11 Defense Expenditure The Thai Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast Thai defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of % during the forecast period Thai military spending, estimated at US$ billion in 2012, has increased at a CAGR of % during the review period and is projected to register a CAGR of % during the forecast period, to reach US$ billion by Along with an increase in the overall defense budget, Thai military spending as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to increase from an estimated % in 2012 to % in Overall, the nation is expected to spend an estimated US$ billion on its armed forces during the forecast period, out of which US$ billion will be earmarked for capital expenditure. The following table and figure show Thai defense expenditure during the review period: Table 1: Thai Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), Year Defense Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense Growth Percentage 2008 % 2009 % 2010 % 2011 % 2012 % Source: MoD and SDI analysis CAGR % Figure 1: Thai Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), Revenue Expenditure Capital Expenditure Growth Rate (%) Source: MoD and SDI analysis 11

12 Defense Expenditure The Thai Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to 2017 The following table and figure show the projected Thai defense expenditure over the forecast period: Table 2: Thai Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), Year Defense Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense Growth Percentage 2013 % 2014 % 2015 % 2016 % 2017 % Source: MoD and SDI analysis CAGR % Figure 2: Thai Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), Revenue Expenditure Capital Expenditure 2017 Growth Rate (%) Source: MoD and SDI analysis 12

13 2.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation The share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is expected to increase during the forecast period Over the review period, revenue expenditure accounted for the majority of Thailand s defense budget, at % on average, while an average of % was earmarked for capital expenses; however, the share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is expected to increase during the forecast period, primarily due to the modernization plans undertaken by the government. Furthermore, the majority of the nation s military hardware was procured prior to 1991 and, due to lower levels of defense spending during , most of these defense systems have suffered wear and tear, and some have become obsolete; additionally, security threats in the southern provinces of the nation will further compel the government to procure defense systems during the forecast period. As a consequence of all these factors, the share of capital expenditure in the overall Thai defense budget is expected to increase to an average of % during the forecast period. 13

14 The following table and chart display the Thai defense budget share of capital and revenue during the review period: Table 3: Thai Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share 2008 % % 2009 % % 2010 % % 2011 % % 2012 % % Source: Budget Bureau, Thailand and SDI analysis Figure 3: Thai Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), % of Defense Expenditure Revenue Expenditure Capital Expenditure Source: Budget Bureau, Thailand and SDI analysis 14

15 The following table and chart display the Thai defense budget share of capital and revenue expenditure over the forecast period: Table 4: Thai Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share 2013 % % 2014 % % 2015 % % 2016 % % 2017 % % Source: Budget Bureau, Thailand and SDI analysis Figure 4: Thai Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), % of Defense Expenditure Revenue Expenditure Capital Expenditure Source: Budget Bureau, Thailand and SDI analysis 15

16 Homeland Security Expenditure The Thai Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast Homeland security (HLS) expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of % during Thai HLS expenditure registered a CAGR of % during the review period and is expected to witness a CAGR of % during the forecast period, to reach an estimated US$ billion in The country s internal security budget is expected to increase due to a rise in terrorist attacks, cross border infiltration, and mass protests. Furthermore, the nation has a vast coastline of 2,815 km, making it susceptible to attacks from pirates, the illicit drug trade, and illegal immigration. Over the forecast period, HLS equipment manufacturers will witness a surge in demand for equipment capable of preventing terrorist attacks and managing mass protests, and in addition to these, the country will invest in border surveillance equipment such as CCTV systems and biometric identification systems. The following table and chart show the Thai homeland security expenditure during the review period: Table 5: Thai Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), Year Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ bn) Growth Rate (%) 2008 % 2009 % 2010 % 2011 % 2012 % Source: Budget Bureau, Thailand and SDI analysis Figure 5: Thai Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), Source: Budget Bureau, Thailand and SDI analysis 16

17 Homeland Security Expenditure The Thai Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to 2017 The following table and chart show the Thai homeland security expenditure over the forecast period: Table 6: Thai Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), Year Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ bn) Growth Rate (%) 2013 % 2014 % 2015 % 2016 % 2017 % Source: Budget Bureau, Thailand and SDI analysis Figure 6: Thai Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), Source: Budget Bureau, Thailand and SDI analysis 17