Election Night Survey. Key Findings From A National Survey of N=1,600 Voters & N=432 Walmart Mom Voters Who Voted in The 2012 Election.

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1 Walmart Moms Election Night Survey Key Findings From A National Survey of N=1,600 Voters & N=432 Walmart Mom Voters Who Voted in The 2012 Election. Alex Bratty Margie Omero

2 Methodology Public Opinion Strategies and Momentum Analysis conducted national election night surveys among 2012 voters: N=1,600 voters (margin of error +2.) N=432 Walmart Mom voters* (margin of error +4.7%) *Defined as women voters with children age 18 or younger living at home who shop at Walmart at least once a month. 2

3 In a close election, voters narrowly opted to re-elect President Obama. However, Walmart Moms were much more divided in their choice than women voters overall. For which of the following candidates did you vote for President 50% All Voters 48% Women Voters 5 43% Walmart Moms 50% 48% Barack Obama Mitt Romney 3

4 Self-described Independents voted for Romney Presidential Vote By Party 94% All Voters Women Voters Walmart Moms 94% 96% 9 96% 97% 50% 42% 47% 49% 52% 4 4% 3% 2% GOP (32%) IND (31%) DEM (36%) GOP (29%) IND (26%) DEM (44%) GOP (32%) IND (29%) DEM (37%) Barack Obama Mitt Romney 4

5 but, Obama picked up large margins with non-white women and non-married women. 46% Presidential Vote By Ethnicity and Marriage Status Among All Voters % 82% 17% 49% 49% 6 34% White Women (38%) 36% 63% Non-White Women (13%) 84% 13% Married Women (30%) 43% 56% Non-Married Women (21%) Presidential Vote By Ethnicity and Marriage Status Among Walmart Moms % 28% White Women (69%) Non-White Women (31%) Married Women (72%) Non-Married Women (27%) Barack Obama Mitt Romney 5

6 64% Age and education also had an impact on the ballot. Presidential Vote By Age and Education Among All Voters % 54% 58% 47% 4 41% 34% Women Age (16%) Women Age 40+ (3) Women <College (27%) Women College+ (2) Presidential Vote By Age and Education Among Walmart Moms % 42% 4 53% 58% 40% 43% 56% Women Age (4) Women Age 40+ (54%) Women <College (49%) Women College+ (50%) Barack Obama Mitt Romney 6

7 For Walmart Moms, the issues were clear: the economy and jobs, followed by health care and education. Note, however, that some social issues make the top ten items they mentioned. And, putting aside character or other personal issues for the presidential campaign, what one or two issues were most important to you when deciding to vote for President? *Top 10 items only shown. Economy Healthcare Jobs Foreign Policy Education Abortion Pro-Choice Deficit Taxes Moral Issues Gay Marriage All Voters 8% 4% 4% 17% 13% Obama Voters: 10% 44% Walmart Moms Economy Healthcare Jobs Education Abortion Pro-Choice Gay Marriage Foreign Policy Abortion Pro-Life Moral Issues Taxes 9% 7% 6% 6% 6% 14% 2 42% Obama Voters: 13% Romney Voters: 11% 7

8 Most voters including Walmart Moms made up their minds earlier than later. Now, some people decide early in a campaign how they will vote. Others make their decisions just before the election. When would you say you made your final decision on which candidate you were going to vote for in the election for President? Today, during the last few days before the election, during the last two weeks in October, during the first two weeks in October, in September or before September? All Voters Women Voters 84% 84% 84% Walmart Moms % First Two Weeks in October or Before Election Day, Last Few Days Before, Last Two Weeks in October * Asked of those who stated their vote: N= 1587 Voters, N= 819 Women Voters; N= 415 Walmart Moms 8

9 The President was lagging among Walmart Moms who decided by mid-october, but clinched late deciders convincingly. All Voters Voted Early Voted Election Day Obama: 49% 50% Romney: 48% 48% Presidential Vote By Time of Decision Making Women Voters Voted Early Voted Election Day Obama: 56% 53% Romney: 43% 44% Walmart Moms Voted Early Voted Election Day Obama: 46% 51% Romney: 52% 47% 50% 48% 49% 56% 54% 44% 43% 42% 48% 51% 62% 33% First Two Weeks in October or Before (84%) Election Day, Last Few Days Before, Last Two Weeks in October (1) First Two Weeks in October or Before (84%) Election Day, Last Few Days Before, Last Two Weeks in October (1) First Two Weeks in October or Before (84%) Election Day, Last Few Days Before, Last Two Weeks in October (16%) Barack Obama Mitt Romney 9

10 Walmart Moms leaned more Democratic on their Congressional ballot, but by smaller margins than women overall. All Voters And, for whom you vote in the election for U.S. Congress in your district the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? Women Voters Walmart Moms 10% Ticket Splitters Ticket Splitters 7% Ticket Splitters 50% 48% 5 43% 52% 48% Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 10

11 Walmart Moms Alex Bratty 214 North Fayette Street Alexandria, VA (703) Margie Omero 1508 Monroe Street NW Washington, DC (202)