WHITE PAPER. Nuclear Energy. Supporting the economic growth. August 2015

Transcription

1 WHITE PAPER Nuclear Energy Supporting the economic growth August 2015

2 Executive Summary In 2013, the Government, in partnership with industry, published the Nuclear Industrial Strategy (NIS). The strategy covers the business opportunities within the sector as well as the challenges that need to be addressed to support economic growth. In order to deliver all projects successfully, the strategy admits that professionals with various specialised skills sets will be needed. As part of the strategy new sites for Nuclear Power stations were proposed at Hinkley Point, Sizewell, Wylfa, Oldbury and Moorside. Two years later, we can really see how the skills and job demands have already started to change on a local level, despite the delays in the project deliveries. It is clear that hot spots for the jobs in demand in the nuclear industry correspond to the areas suggested for the new sites. In this white paper we discuss the changes in job demand from January 2013 to June 2015 nationwide. We also show how these projects have changed the skills demand profiles locally, with a focus on Cumbria, where the difference is significant compared to the national skills demand. The report shows the importance real-time labour market intelligence has when considering the need to adjust all supporting skills programs and when reviewing economic development. We also look at the importance of understanding the local labour market for curriculum reviews to bridge emerging skills gaps. Active Informatics Ltd 2

3 Contents 1 Introduction Employment projections Vacancies profile January 2013 June The Example of Cumbria Investing in the right skills Curriculum reviews Closing Thoughts About Labour/Insight Bibliography Active Informatics Ltd 3

4 1 Introduction The nuclear sector in the UK currently employs around 40,000 people [1] with total commercial turnover estimated at approximately 4 billion. [2] In 2013 the Government, in partnership with industry, published the Nuclear Industrial Strategy (NIS). The strategy covers the business opportunities within the sector as well as the challenges that need to be addressed to support economic growth. The industry has set out plans to deliver around 16 GW of new nuclear by That broadly translates into at least 12 new nuclear reactors at five sites currently earmarked for development: Hinkley Point, Sizewell, Wylfa, Oldbury and Moorside. [3] The projected resource demand as a result of the building projects will increase to around 66,500 at the peak period. Once the new plants are built, the number will drop to 47,000. [1] Figure 1 Approximate locations of the proposed new facilities Active Informatics Ltd 4

5 The Government report expect the first of the sites, Hinkley Point, to be fully developed by The project has faced various obstacles and public protests but according to Amber Rudd, the energy secretary, it seems that this year the decision will be finally taken. [4] At Wylfa the works are well under way, with public consultations taking place in the area. The developers hope the new Wylfa Newydd nuclear station could be up and running by the early 2020s, reported BBC. [5] The old plant in Oldbury has almost been completely decommissioned. This will actually mean the loss of 1,600 of jobs. [6] The plan is to build the new plant after The site of a 10bn nuclear power plant in Moorside, Cumbria, was confirmed in July 2015 and its construction will take four years. [7] The consultations for the Sizewell nuclear plant is still ongoing and the timelines are unclear at this time (August 2015). [8] Active Informatics Ltd 5

6 2 Employment projections The nuclear industry has the ability to significantly boost the British economy. The NIA Capability Report estimates that the 16 GW new build fleet could support around a total of 66,500 jobs at its peak, about 26,000 more than it currently does. [1] 1 However, as figure 1 shows, the expected jobs are not just at the site itself, but also in other functions. [3] To complete these projects successfully, the industry will need a highly skilled and competent workforce. The estimates talk about 20,000 apprentices, 20,000 workers from allied sectors and 20,000 professional engineers and other graduates. [9] Figure 2 Workforce projection - NIA assumed programme, p.78 [3] 1 NIA assume new build is complete by 2027 and Oxford Economics and Atkins assume it is finished by 2030 Active Informatics Ltd 6

7 The skills in demand will change over time as the various construction and decommissioning projects progress (see Figure 3). [10] For example the workforce projection for jobs related to commissioning do not begin to have an impact until Figure 3 Overall Nuclear Workforce demand 2014 to 2034 [10] Approximately 53% of workers in the Nuclear sector were over 45 years old in We can expect growth in demand within the next decade as people begin to approach retirement age. The possibility of skills shortages is particularly acute among management roles and Subject Matter Expert roles, with nearly 70% of those workers due to retire by [11] According to the Cogent we can expect a sharp rise in requirements for particular skills this year, [11] However, the sources quoted above are project timelines that were based on projections originally proposed in Two years later, not all of the projects are on track and for this reason it is good to review these projections against recent labour market information. Active Informatics Ltd 7

8 3 Vacancies profile January 2013 June 2015 We analysed online job vacancies for each quarter from January 2013 to June Figure 4 shows the top occupations in demand during the period that required industry specific skills for the Nuclear sector. What the graph shows is the variety of occupations needed in the Nuclear industry from general engineering professionals, to electrical engineers and civil engineers. In the past six months, we saw lower demand overall for professionals in the Nuclear industry. This could be an indicator of how sensitive the projects are to current government strategy. Also, during this time, two large decommissioning projects have come to an end and this could have had an influence on the overall demand too. Top occupations in demand 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Others Design and development engineers (2126) Mechanical engineers (2122) Electrical engineers (2123) Engineering professionals n.e.c. (2129) Health and safety officers (3567) Managers and proprietors in other services n.e.c. (1259) Quality control and planning engineers (2461) Civil engineers (2121) Figure 4 Top occupations in demand requiring industry specific skills nationwide Active Informatics Ltd 8

9 The more interesting picture is where the highest demand was from January 2013 to June We can see clearly that Cumbria is the region with the highest demand, adjusted to the total amount of working population (Figure 5). Figure 5 Areas of high demand January June 2015 (adjusted to postings per working population) 3.1 The Example of Cumbria The project in Cumbria is already changing the regional job vacancy profile despite still being in its early stages. In the second quarter of 2015, Nuclear Industry Background was the second skill in highest demand, required for 5.59% of vacancies advertised in that quarter (Figure 6). Interestingly, there is no demand for programming skills in the top 10, which is a significant difference to the national average for the same period as we showed in our article 3 observations about the Q labour market published on 3 rd August (see Figure 7). Active Informatics Ltd 9

10 Figure 6 Top 10 skills in demand in Cumbria in Q Figure 7 Top 10 skills in demand UK-wide in Q Active Informatics Ltd 10

11 The site in Sellafield is expected to generate 21,000 jobs during its lifetime. The power station near Sellafield will have its own railway station, health centres and local amenities, with a transport infrastructure to take pressure off local roads. [12] This shows how crucial it is to understand the local labour market and local labour market trends - in real time, as changes happen. Active Informatics Ltd 11

12 4 Investing in the right skills There will be a demand for many different types of professional workers in order to support all projects. To cope with the demand, the Government has established the National Skills Academy Nuclear, backed up by 110 companies for the Nuclear industry sector, to work on skills development initiatives. We can already see the skills provision changing Lakes College in Cumbria has recently opened its Construction and Built Environment department to cope with the demand [13] and in March 2015 Bridgwater College was selected as a training provider for a new National College for Nuclear (NCfN). [14] 4.1 Curriculum reviews Current degrees and training courses need to provide the graduates with the right skills demanded by employers. Curriculum reviews can be done using employer surveys but this approach takes time. Using real-time job market information speeds up this process and provides unbiased information based on huge amounts of data. In this case, the first step is to identify occupations that map each degree or training course. Then, using a labour market information tool such as Labour/Insight, you can look at the total job postings, tops skills, top employers, experience and education requirements and average advertised salary. You can choose to look at national or local levels depending on the type of analysis required. To support local economic growth it is important to look at local data as ideally the aim should be to train professionals with the right set of skills that match local demand. All this provides not just an evidence base for updating curriculums, but also a reason to develop conversations with employers. The fact that the data has been collected from millions of different sources helps to prevent cultural and regional bias. Using real-time labour market information helps to remain agile and provides the ability to act upon emerging trends quicker. Active Informatics Ltd 12

13 5 Closing Thoughts The purely economic benefits of developing the Nuclear industry are clear, both for the national and local economy, but a skills shortage can add to the other factors that slow down the projects. The ongoing challenge is that the consultation for various sites may take longer than expected, the economic climate evolves or the new Government prioritises things differently. All this makes it difficult to rely on data modelling only. In such long term projects it is more important than ever to understand up to date and accurate local and national labour market information. Understanding local labour market trends is central to setting up the correct strategy to identify growth in the area as well as emerging occupations. It allows you to focus on emerging skills and to follow the skills demand profile. Real-time labour market intelligence is also an indicator of whether projects are on time whilst also taking into account any real life situations that could not have been predicted at the time when plans were first made. Active Informatics Ltd 13

14 5.1 About Labour/Insight Labour/Insight is a real-time LMI tool for the United Kingdom. Parsing technology can extract, derive, and infer more than 70 data elements from any given free-text job listing thanks to patented technology called Statistical Natural Language Processing (SNLP). Active Informatics is the authorised reseller for Labour/Insight in the United Kingdom with vast experience in working within the public sector. If you are interested in finding out how Labour/Insight can support your projects, contact Active Informatics for more information. 5.2 About Active Informatics Ltd Active Informatics brings data to life. We understand labour market data. We work closely with local enterprise partnerships and local councils, providing labour market intelligence tools for economic development departments as well as skills and education departments. Active Informatics Ltd Network House Basing View Basingstoke Hampshire RG21 4HG Telephone: Active Informatics Ltd 14

15 Bibliography [1] The Nuclear Industry Association, NIA Capability report, [Online]. Available: [2] K-Matrix, Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and Services data ( ), [Online]. Available: [3] HM Government, The UK s Nuclear Future, [Online]. Available: nuclear-industrial-strategy-the-uks-nuclear-future.pdf. [4] E. Gosden, The Guardian: Hinkley Point nuclear plant: 'very good prospect' of go-ahead this year, says Amber Rudd, 21 July [Online]. Available: [5] BBC News, Wylfa Newydd nuclear plant safety report prompts ONR action, 27 July [Online]. Available: [6] Gazette, Roles at Berkeley and Oldbury power stations under threat as Magnox plan to slash workforce, 21 May [Online]. Available: ations_under_threat_as_magnox_plan_to_slash_workforce/. [7] BBC, Land deal secures Cumbria's Moorside nuclear plant, 15 July [Online]. Available: [8] Ipswitch Star, EDF says it has not been sitting on it hands over Sizewell C plans, 17 June [Online]. Available: zewell_c_plans_1_ [9] Engineering Construction Industry Training Board, Building the capacity and capability of the engineering construction industry, Issue [Online]. Available: %20ISSUE%203%20-%20SPREADS_LR.pdf. [10] Nuclear Energy Skills Alliance, Nuclear Workforce Assessment 2014, [Online]. Available: [11] Cogent, Power People: The Civil Nuclear Workforce , [Online]. Available: [12] Mirror, New 10bn Sellafield nuclear power plant set to create 21,000 jobs, 15 July [Online]. Available: [13] Lakes College, Construction and the Built Environment, [Online]. Available: [14] Bridgwater Mercury, Bridgwater College chosen to train nation's nuclear workforce, 20 March [Online]. Available: Active Informatics Ltd 15

16 nation_s_nuclear_workforce/. Active Informatics Ltd 16