STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA WAUSAU AREA AND MARSHFIELD AREA ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA WAUSAU AREA AND MARSHFIELD AREA ECONOMIC INDICATORS"

Transcription

1 Central Bank & Trust Marshfield Area Chamber of Commerce Marshfield Economic Development Association STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA WAUSAU AREA AND MARSHFIELD AREA ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2nd Quarter Presented by: Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau Randy F. Cray, Ph.D., Professor of Economics and Director of the CWERB Lawrence Weiser, Ph.D., Research Associate Jill Schabel, Administrative Assistant Special Report: Wisconsin s Tax Capacity and Tax Effort and What is the Next Step in Property Tax Relief? James R. Morgan, President, Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Overview Table 1 Central Wisconsin Tables 2-6 Stevens Point Plover Area Table 7-14 Wausau Area Table 7-13 Marshfield Area Table 7-16 Outlook Special Report Wisconsin s Tax Capacity and Tax Effort What is the Next Step in Property Tax Relief? Presentations and research activities of the Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau in Stevens Point are made possible by a generous grant for M&I Marshall and Ilsley Bank of Stevens Point. We wish to thank them for their continuing support. Association for University Business and Economic Research CWERB - Division of Business and Economics University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point Stevens Point, WI / /

3 Overview The national economy continued its record long peace-time expansion during second quarter. Real Gross National Product, which measures the inflation adjusted value of all final goods and services produced in the economy, grew by a healthy 3.5 percent from last year. (Table 1) Industrial production, which measures factory output, increased by 3.4 percent. Interest rates are higher than a year ago, however, they have been trending downward during the last several months. Inflation, spurred on by higher food and energy costs, grew by 5.2 percent from last year. These variables are characteristic of an economy that has expanded. The unemployment situation in Central Wisconsin was not as disturbing as the higher unemployment rates might otherwise indicate, because the increase in rates occurred in the face of rising employment. This means that the number of entrants into the labor force grew more rapidly than the number of jobs. Total employment in each county and the region, as a whole, expanded respectably. Nearly 5000 jobs were created in Central Wisconsin in the last 12 month period. Job generation at the state and national levels has been somewhat slower than the regional pace. The manufacturing and service sectors led in job creation, with nondurable goods manufacturing employment showing a 10.4 percent increase. Trade, construction, and government payrolls grew more modestly. Overall, there are now nearly 115,000 people employed in the region. The paper products industry continues to expand operations throughout the region. The increased profitability in this key industry has acted as a catalyst for the recent surge in business investment. Combining the paper industry with the three other key Central Wisconsin industries results in an employment figure of 28.3 thousand. This represents approximately 24 percent of all nonfarm employment in the region. Business executives indicate that matters have improved nationally and locally but, they feel the situation in the months ahead will remain essentially the same. This means that we can expect no dramatic change in the area over the short-run. However, the Central Wisconsin area transportation network appears headed for a substantial upgrade. This is potentially one of the most important economic developments to take place in the region in the foreseeable future. The Stevens Point Area economy performed admirably during second quarter. Nonresidential construction and help wanted advertising support this contention and employment was improved in many categories. However, little progress was made in the area of local family financial distress. It appears that an improved local situation has not and may never reach all levels of the population.

4 The national economy is slowing, retail sales and housing are not as robust as in previous periods. The Federal Reserve Board has changed its position on the direction and condition of the economy and is now loosening credit conditions. Only time will tell if the change comes too late to head off a recession. TABLE 1: NATIONAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS Second Quarter Second Quarter Percent Change Nominal Gross Domestic Product (Billions) Real Gross Domestic Product (Billions of 1982 $) Industrial Production (1977= 100) $ $ $ $ Three Month U.S. Treasury Bill Rate 6.59% 7.78% Consumer Price Index ( = 100)

5 Central Wisconsin The Central Wisconsin economy continued to expand during second quarter. Employment growth was substantial when compared to levels. All three counties shared in the expansion. Further, all major industrial sectors displayed varying degrees of vigor with many industries reaching all-time high levels of employment. Key regional industries were paced by developments in the paper products industry. Economic conditions nationally and in the industry have been conducive to expansion. The regional economy is also dependent on the agricultural sector. Central Wisconsin is a leader in dairy and vegetable production. Better weather conditions this year have given rise to expectations of an improved harvest. This would provide an additional stimulus to the regional economy. Table 2 presents data on unemployment in Central Wisconsin. Portage, Marathon, and Wood counties all experienced increases in their unemployment rates. However, this increase occurred concomitant with continued growth in total employment, indicating a situation where the labor force is expanding at a faster rate than the number of new jobs. The Central Wisconsin overall unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percent from last year. At the state level, the jump was more dramatic as the unemployment rate increased by over half a percentage point. Employment in the region increased by a respectable 3.8 percent or 4900 positions. (Table 3) All three counties made significant strides in job creation, and employment has now reached record levels regardless of the time of year. Wood County led the procession with a gain of 1800 jobs. Marathon and Portage counties followed closely with gains of 1700 and 1400 respectively. As mentioned in previous reports, extensive commuting takes place between the counties. It is, therefore, useful to consider the aggregate totals of the region to gain more accurate insight into the economic viability of the area. Employment growth at state and national levels was positive, but not as robust in the Central Wisconsin area. Another approach to analyzing local economic conditions is to examine major sector employment. Table 4 shows that employment increased in all nonfarm sectors. Approximately 4000 more nonfarm jobs exist than just one year ago. This represents an increase of 3.6 percent. The manufacturing and service sectors added 1600 employees to regional payrolls. Trade, construction, and government made modest but positive contributions to the employment picture. Historically, manufacturing and service employment are at all-time record levels regardless of the time of year. Table 5 lists the region's basic industries. These industries are exporters in, the sense that they bring new money into the region and serve as the foundation of our regional nonfarm economy. Therefore, the 6.0 percent increase over last year comes as welcome news. Nearly 70 percent of this increase can be attributed to the paper products industries. The generally lower dollar and high world demand for these products have spurred the recent growth. Food processing employment grew by nearly 12 percent to The 500 additional jobs in this sector demonstrate continued steady

6 growth. Lumber and wood products increased by a modest 1.9 percent or 100 positions. Only finance, insurance, and real estate showed negative growth by posting a 100 job decline since. Table 6 lists the results of the CWERB's business confidence survey. Business executives feel that national and local conditions have improved somewhat over the past several months. They also expressed the opinion that national and local economic conditions and the positions of their industries will not change much over the next quarter. This can be interpreted to mean that they do not expect conditions to substantially improve or deteriorate. TABLE 2: UNEMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN Unemployment Rate June Unemployment Rate June Percent Change Portage 4.3% 4.8% Marathon 4.1% 4.4% +7.3 Wood 5.1% 5.4% +5.9 Central Wisconsin 4.4% 4.8% +9.1 Wisconsin 3.8% 4.5% United States 5.5% 5.5% 0.0 TABLE 3: EMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN Total Employment June (Thousands) Total Employment June (Thousands) Percent Change Portage Marathon Wood Central Wisconsin Wisconsin 2, , United States 116, ,

7 TABLE 4: CENTRAL WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR Employment June (Thousands) Employment June (Thousands) Percent Change Manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Trade Construction Government TABLE 5: EMPLOYMENT IN KEY CENTRAL WISCONSIN INDUSTRIES Industry Employment June (Thousands) Employment June (Thousands) Percent Change Paper Products Lumber and Wood Products Food Processing Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate

8 TABLE 6: BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN Index Value March June Recent Change in National Economic Conditions Recent Change in Local Economic Conditions Expected Change in National Economic Conditions Expected Change in Local Economic Conditions Expected Change in Industry Conditions = Substantially Better 50 = Same 0 = Substantially Worse

9 The Greater Stevens Point Plover Area The Stevens Point area economy continued to grow during 2nd quarter. Total employment grew to 32.9 thousand, an increase of nearly 4.5 percent. Further, the relatively high-paying manufacturing sector added nearly 200 jobs during the last year. Much strength was evident in nearly all indicators of past and future performance. One of the more exceptional pieces of information comes from the nonresidential construction scene. Building activity of this type was at record levels due principally to a major expansion at Consolidated Papers. Portage County is the number one producer of vegetables in the state. Thus a rebound in the agricultural sector from the drought of last year would provide a major boost to the local economy. As of press time, early summer rains seem to have assured a substantial improvement in local farm sector conditions. Table 7 presents the nonfarm employment situation by major sector. Manufacturing posted a 200 position gain, up 4.0 percent from a year ago. Manufacturing employment stands at an all-time high for second quarter. Nonresidential construction has stimulated a 15 percent increase in construction employment, and government payrolls expanded by nearly 200 positions. Trade employment showed an unexpectedly large decline over June of. However, these figures will most probably be subject to reevaluation by the Wisconsin Department of Labor and Human Relations. Finally, service sector employment was virtually unchanged from a year ago. Retail trade conditions are gauged by a survey of local merchants. (Table 8) The CWERB poll indicates that total sales and store traffic were somewhat better than the previous year at this time. With regard to future sales and store traffic matters should be moderately better in the quarter ahead. Retail activity is an important indicator of economic vitality because changes in this sector reflect the overall health of an economy. The help wanted advertising index (Table 9) is a measure of labor market conditions. The index shows that nearly three jobs are being advertised in the local newspaper in for everyone job advertised in From a year ago, the index has increased by nearly 40 percent and now stands at a record level for this time of year. Thus, it can be concluded that local payrolls should continue to grow. The purpose of this newspaper-based index is not to count all new jobs being offered in a community, but rather to capture the overall trend. Tables 10 and 11 measure local family financial distress. New public assistance claims in the county rose by 7.2 percent from a monthly average of 97 claims to 104 claims. Monthly average total caseload fell nearly 19 percent from 1726 to 1401 cases over the past year. With regard to new and total unemployment claims, matters

10 were virtually unchanged from a year ago. Thus, a small percentage of the population continues to experience difficulty even during this period of increasing prosperity. After several years of exceptional growth and expansion, local residential construction activity has slowed. (Table 12) Permits issued, the estimated value of new homes, the number of housing units, and the estimated value of residential alterations were all sharply lower than a year ago. This is the second consecutive quarter of contraction in this sector. The satiation of pent-up housing demand over the past several years and escalating prices have played important roles in the slackening of residential construction. In contrast, nonresidential construction activity was very strong. Table 13 shows that nearly every category is much above last year's levels. From a historical perspective, the number of permits, estimated value of new structures, and the number of business alteration permits issued reached record highs, regardless of the time of year. The decision to build or expand a business is primarily a function of expected profitability; therefore, these decisions can the considered an expression of optimism about the future. Table 14 presents local financial data. Bank deposits jumped by nearly $25 million or 9 percent. Lending activity was even stronger as evidenced by a $35.6 million increase in outstanding loans for a gain of 19.1 percent. The statistics may be biased upwards due to monies being temporarily transferred from one institution and/or region to another. Thus, caution should be exercised when interpreting the numbers. TABLE 7: PORTAGE COUNTY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR Employment June Employment June Percent Change Manufacturing 5,000 5, Services 9,710 9, Trade 6,400 5, Construction Government 4,200 4,

11 TABLE 8: RETAILER CONFIDENCE IN STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA Index Value March June Total Sales Compared to Previous Year Store Traffic Compared to Previous Year Expected Sales Three Months From Now Expected Store Traffic Three Months From Now = Substantially Better 50 = Same 0 = Substantially Worse TABLE 9: HELP WANTED ADVERTISING IN PORTAGE COUNTY Index Value Stevens Point (June) (1980 = 100) U.S. (May) (1967 = 100) TABLE 10: PUBLIC ASSISTANCE CLAIMS IN PORTAGE COUNTY (Monthly Avg.) (Monthly Avg.) Percent Change New Applications Total Caseload 1,726 1, *As of First Quarter 1986 Public Assistance Claims in Marshfield are being compiled on a county-wide basis.

12 TABLE 11: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS IN PORTAGE COUNTY Percent Change New Claims Total Claims TABLE 12: RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA* Percent Change Residential Permits Issued Estimated Value of New Homes $7,570.3 $6, Number of Housing Units Residential Alteration Permits Issued Estimated Value of Alterations $1,188.8 $ *Includes Stevens Point, Village of Plover, and the Towns of Hull, Stockton, Sharon, and Plover. TABLE 13: NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA* Number of Permits Issued 6 17 Estimated Value of New Structures $1,158.2 $12,072.6 Number of Business Alteration Permits Estimated Value of Business Alterations $5,810.1 $974.0 *Includes Stevens Point, Village of Plover, and the Towns of Hull, Stockton, Sharon, and Plover.

13 TABLE 14: FINANCIAL STATISTICS FOR PORTAGE COUNTY Second Quarter (Millions) Second Quarter (Millions) Percent Change Bank Deposits $263.7 $ Bank Loans $181.3 $

14 Wausau For approximately the past three years the Wausau area economy has been in an expansive mode. The second quarter of continues the succession of economically successful quarters. Total and nonfarm employment grew by respectable margins. In particular manufacturing, services, and trade were sources of strength. Further, retailer belief that matters have improved and unemployment claim data both support a positive assessment of the local situation. With a strong paper products industry, and a likely rebound in agriculture, the major concern for the area is the direction of the national economy. Historically the regional economy tends to lag events at the national level. However, this does not mean that the eventual influence is weak. To the contrary, the effect can be pronounced. Marathon County nonfarm payrolls grew by 2000 positions from a year ago. (Table 7) This represents a very healthy 4.1 percent rate of change. Individual industries experiencing the largest gains were trade, and services. Approximately 700 and 800 persons were added respectively. The manufacturing and construction sectors showed noticeable improvements of 400 and 200 jobs. Furthermore, all four of the previously mentioned sectors have reached all-time record high levels of employment. Only government employment showed any signs of contraction. The retailer confidence index gives insight into past and future economic conditions. Table 8 presents the results of the survey of local merchants. This group believes that store traffic and sales are improved over last year's levels. This is consistent with and supports other data in the report which portrays a growing Wausau area economy. Their feelings are equally optimistic with regard to future store sales and traffic. Table 9 shows that help wanted advertising has declined by approximately 15 percent from last year. However, when June is compared to June 1980 it is evident that, over the long term, steady growth has taken place. Thus, the area can expect slower but still respectable payroll expansion. The data at the local level mirrors the national situation. There, too, a slowdown is evident. The financial distress of local families continues to lessen. (Tables 10 and 11) Total public assistance claims dropped from 120 to 107, and initial and total unemployment claims fell by 16.4 and 7.3 percent respectively. Only new applications for public assistance increased from 14 to 23. An improved local and regional economy have played an important role in the general overall reduction. After a record setting first quarter, residential construction results were somewhat mixed during second quarter. (Table 12) Residential permits issued, the estimated value of new homes, and the estimated value of alterations were lower when contrasted with the historically strong performance of second quarter. On the more positive side, the number of housing units did not fall and residential alteration

15 permits rose by approximately 33 percent. The nonresidential construction scene is depicted in Table 13. Activity in this sector can vary a great deal due to the singular nature of business investments. Historically the results fall into the normal range of activity even though the numbers this quarter are below those of last year. The financial health of the community is represented by data in Table 14. Deposits expanded by over 9 percent to a record level of $607.5 million. Moreover, lending activity increased by $57 million, or 13.5 percent, to a record high. Both lending and deposit information are indicative of a growing economy and tell of the expanding situation. TABLE 7: MARATHON COUNTY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR Employment June (Thousands) Employment June (Thousands) Percent Change Manufacturing Services Trade Construction Government TABLE 8 RETAILER CONFIDENCE IN WAUSAU Index Value March June Total Sales Compared to Previous Year Sore Traffic Compared to Previous Year Expected Sales Three Months From Now Expected Store Traffic Three Months From Now = Substantially Better 50 = Same 0 = Substantially Worse

16 TABLE 9 HELP WANTED ADVERTISING IN WAUSAU Index Value Wausau (June) (1980 = 100) U.S. (May) (1967 = 100) TABLE 10 PUBLIC ASSISTANT CLAIMS IN MARATHON COUNTY (Monthly Avg.) (Monthly Avg.) Percent Change New Applications Total Claims *As of First Quarter 1986 Public Assistance Claims in Marshfield are being compiled on a county-wide basis. TABLE 11 UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS IN WAUSAU Percent Change New Claims 2,862 2, Total Claims 20,541 19, * Includes Medford Area.

17 TABLE 12 NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN WAUSAU AREA Percent Change Residential Permits Issued Estimated Value of New Homes $4,957.9 $4, Number of Housing Units Residential Alteration Permits Issued Estimated Value of Alterations $976.2 $ *Does not include the Town of Rib Mountain. Data Collected by University of Wisconsin-Marathon Center TABLE 13: NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN WAUSAU Number of Permits Issued Estimated Value of New Structures $5,144.9 $3,472.5 Number of Business Alteration Permits Estimated Value of Business Alterations *Does not include the Town of Rib Mountain. Data Collected by University of Wisconsin-Marathon Center $1,081.1 $827.6 TABLE 14: FINANCIAL STATISTICS FOR MARATHON COUNTY (Millions) (Millions) Percent Change Bank Deposits $556.6 $ Bank Loans $422.5 $ *Data Collected by University of Wisconsin-Marathon Center

18 Marshfield Area The Marshfield area economy continued its expansionary trend during second quarter. Total and nonfarm employment in Wood County increased at very respectable rates. Moreover, total employment now stands at a record level of 39,000. Although the unemployment rate is somewhat higher than last year, the impact has been mitigated by an accompanying rise in the total number employed. Further, economic indicators and industry data suggest that the area economy will continue to do well if not derailed by developments outside the region. Another factor to consider is improved weather conditions, which should help bolster the farm situation thus providing a boost to the local economy. Nonfarm employment in Wood County continued to expand during second quarter (Table 7). Manufacturing gained approximately 1000 positions to lead all sectors. This is the highest total since the recession of the early 1980s. Service and government sector employment also added jobs to county payrolls, with gains of 920 and 300 respectively. Construction employment was unchanged while trade registered a small decrease of 200 positions. Overall in Wood County there are 37,910 people employed in nonfarm activities, a 2,020 or 5.6 percent increase from one year ago. The Marshfield Employment Index rose by a substantial 7.7 percent. This means that the CWERB estimates that Marshfield employment has increased by this percentage. Retailer sentiment is given in Table 8. Local merchants believe that store traffic and sales are somewhat better than a year ago. This is an important indicator that the economy has grown over the past twelve months. When asked about the future, this group expected sales and store traffic to improve by significant margins. The implication is that the local scene should continue to experience growth in the months ahead. Another leading indicator for the local economy is the help wanted advertising index. Job advertising increased by 8.3 percent from a year ago. This is in contrast to the 3 percent drop in advertising for the U.S. Since 1980 there has been a 234 percent increase in the number of jobs being offered through the local newspaper. Thus, the Marshfield area should continue to experience payroll expansion in the months ahead. Decreases in public assistance and unemployment claims indicate that fewer individuals and families are experiencing financial distress than one year ago. Total caseload and new applications for public assistance are lower than last year. The total caseload dropped from 678 to 622, and new applications dropped from 29 to 26. Initial unemployment claims are nearly 18 percent lower and total claims shrank by approximately 19 percent. These measures reflect a growing economy. However, as the numbers suggest, an improving economic situation may never be sufficient to reach all members of society. Residential construction is a leading indicator of economic activity (Table 12). The results for second quarter are lower in all but one category. Residential permits issued, the estimated value of new homes, the number of housing units, and the

19 number of residential alteration permits issued were below last year's levels. Only the estimated value of residential alterations was higher than the earlier period. Higher interest rates and a satiation of local housing demand played a significant role in the results. Business investment is primarily a function of expected future profitability. Further, a firm's construction investments, for both new construction and alterations, are usually large, singular events, creating large fluctuations in nonresidential construction statistics from period to period and year to year. For this reason percentage change figures are not reported for these categories. However, from a historical perspective, second quarter showed vigorous activity. Nearly all categories were higher than a year ago. The number of permits issued, the estimated value of new structures, and the estimated value of business alterations showed considerable strength. Only the number of alteration permits issued decreased. The overall situation bodes well for the local community because business investment often translates into new job opportunities. Financial statistics can give important insight into the local economy. Bank deposits were up slightly from last year, by approximately $1 million. Lending activity was up nearly $13 million, or 9.4 percent. At $144.3 million, bank loans are at an all time high for second quarter. The data suggest that the economy continued to grow during the last three months. Tables 15 and 16 present data on Clark County. This agriculturally oriented geographic unit is an important market area for Marshfield businesses. Therefore, for planning purposes, we include relevant economic statistics on this county in addition to economic indicators for the Marshfield-Wood County area. TABLE 7 WOOD COUNTY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR Employment June Employment June Percent Change Manufacturing 9,500 10, Services 12,310 13, Trade 8,800 8, Construction 1,280 1, Government 4,000 4, Marshfield Employment Index

20 TABLE 8 RETAILER CONFIDENCE IN MARSHFIELD* Index Value March June Total Sales Compared to Previous Year Store Traffic Compared to Previous Year Expected Sales Three Months From Now Expected Store Traffic Three Months From Now = Substantially Better 50 = Same 0 = Substantially Worse *Data collected by UW Marshfield-Wood County TABLE 9 HELP WANTED ADVERTISING IN MARSHFIELD Index Value Marshfield (June) (1980 = 100) U.S. (May) (1967 = 100) TABLE 10 PUBLIC ASSISTANCE CLAIMS IN WOOD COUNTY (Monthly Avg.) (Monthly Avg.) Percent Change New Applications Total Caseload *As of First Quarter 1986 Public Assistance Claims in Marshfield are being compiled on a county-wide basis.

21 TABLE 11 UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS IN WOOD COUNTY Percent Change New Claims Total Claims TABLE 12 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN MARSHFIELD AREA* Percent Change Residential Permits Issued Estimated Value of New Homes $2,109.0 $1, Number of Housing Units Residential Alteration Permits Issued Estimated Value of Alterations $199.1 $ *Data collected by UW Marshfield-Wood County TABLE 13 NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN MARSHFIELD AREA* Number of Permits Issued 3 18 Estimated Value of New Structures $635.6 $5,949.1 Number of Business Alteration Permits Estimated Value of Business Alterations *Data collected by UW Marshfield-Wood County $334.8 $403.6

22 TABLE 14: FINANCIAL STATISTICS FOR MARSHFIELD* (Millions) (Millions) Percent Change Bank Deposits $199.9 $ Bank Loans $131.9 $ *Data collected by UW Marshfield-Wood County TABLE 15: CLARK COUNTY EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR June June Percent Change Manufacturing 2,100 2, Services 1,660 1, Trade 1,950 1, Construction Government 1,810 1, TABLE 16: CLARK COUNTY EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS June June Percent Change Unemployment Rate 5.5% 6.3% Total Employed 14,100 13, Total Unemployed Labor Force 15,000 14,

23 Outlook The national economy is definitely showing signs of softening. GNP growth during the second quarter of was a sluggish 1.7 percent. Furthermore, job growth is slowing and housing and auto sales have weakened. Many analysts feel that growth will not be significantly higher during the remainder of. Some are even more pessimistic and believe that the economy has already or is about to stall, thus pushing the country into a recession. The reason most often given for the slowdown is Federal Reserve Board policy. For approximately a year and a half the country's monetary authority has been tightening money and credit conditions with the objective of reducing inflationary pressures. While relatively higher interest rates and tighter credit conditions do dampen economic activity and help prevent the economy from overheating, the danger is that too much restraint may push the economy into.a period of higher unemployment and falling incomes. In the past several weeks, data about the condition of the economy seems to have convinced the Federal Reserve that its policy has been successful and that the greatest threat now facing the nation is recession rather than inflation. The outcome of the resulting loosening in monetary policy is difficult to predict. Substantial time lags exist between a change in policy and its effect on the national economy. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if this change in policy can stabilize the situation or if the economy is in an irreversible downturn. The high correlation between regional and national activity assures that these matters will eventually influence Central Wisconsin. But the long-term viability of the region depends on many factors such as the availability of natural resources and services and the quality of the labor force. Another crucial element is transportation. Recently announced plans to upgrade Highway 29 and sections of Highways 10 and 54 to four lanes bode well for Central Wisconsin. These proposed improvements in the transportation network are potentially among the most significant economic events in the history of the region. Given the area's natural endowments and strategic location, the improved ability to get inputs into and production out of the region should help ensure Central Wisconsin's future well into the next century.

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors The President s Report to the Board of Directors May 5, 2015 CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS - May 5, 2015 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show that economic growth continued to slow in

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S.

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S. CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST O U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate ver the past few years, U.S. economic activity has remained

More information

Correlation between the US Federal Funds Rate and Unemployment Rate

Correlation between the US Federal Funds Rate and Unemployment Rate Macroeconomy and Financial Markets Correlation between the US Federal Funds Rate and Unemployment Rate Sungwon Cho, Research Fellow* Despite low interest rates, the US inflation rate is within the Federal

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

4. Supply and Demand Developments

4. Supply and Demand Developments 4. Supply and Demand Developments The fourth-quarter national accounts data are consistent with the outlook presented in the January Inflation Report. After growing temporarily at a slower pace in the

More information

PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR APRIL 2014 KEY POINTS

PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR APRIL 2014 KEY POINTS PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR APRIL 2014 KEY POINTS Growth in the number of passengers traveling in premium seats on international markets increased by a solid 3.8% in April compared to a year ago, which is

More information

Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians. An Update of Labor Market and Electrician Program Data. December 2013

Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians. An Update of Labor Market and Electrician Program Data. December 2013 Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians An Update of Labor Market and Electrician Program Data December 2013 Prepared by: Mohamed Mourssi-Alfash, Ph.D. Research Analyst (651) 259-7416 Mohamed.mourssi@state.mn.us

More information

The U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty.

The U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty. Presentation to the University of Washington Business School For delivery November 15, 2001 at approximately 8:05 AM Pacific Standard Time (11:05 AM Eastern) By Robert T. Parry, President and CEO of the

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

The following text represents the notes on which Mr. Parry based his remarks. 1998: Issues in Monetary Policymaking

The following text represents the notes on which Mr. Parry based his remarks. 1998: Issues in Monetary Policymaking Phoenix Society of Financial Analysts and Arizona State University Business School ASU, Memorial Union - Ventana Room April 24, 1998, 12:30 PM Robert T. Parry, President, FRBSF The following text represents

More information

From Widening Deficits to Paying Down the Debt: Benefits for the American People

From Widening Deficits to Paying Down the Debt: Benefits for the American People From Widening Deficits to Paying Down the Debt: Benefits for the American People August 4, 1999 Office of Economic Policy U.S. Department of Treasury From Widening Deficits to Paying Down the Debt: Benefits

More information

Executive Summary. 3 Attracting ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Executive Summary. 3 Attracting ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Visa Small Business REPORT AUGUST 0 Spend Insights Visa Small Business Spend Insights monitors the economic confidence of U.S. small business owners by analyzing Visa Business card spend data and responses

More information

Health Economics Program

Health Economics Program Health Economics Program Issue Brief March, 2011 Background Health Insurance Premiums and Cost Drivers in Minnesota, 2009 Persistently rising health care costs affect the budgets of consumers, employers

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS BUSINESS ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION To determine a proper price for a firm s stock, security analyst must forecast the dividend & earnings that can be expected

More information

Monthly Economic Dashboard

Monthly Economic Dashboard RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

More information

Governor Walker's Tax Reform Initiative. Wisconsin Department of Revenue February 2013

Governor Walker's Tax Reform Initiative. Wisconsin Department of Revenue February 2013 Governor Walker's Tax Reform Initiative Wisconsin Department of Revenue February 2013 1 Tax Reform Goals Reduce Wisconsin's high tax burden Put more money in people's pockets Make Wisconsin more competitive

More information

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, at the Capital markets seminar, hosted by Terra-Gruppen AS, Gardermoen,

More information

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Percent 70 The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009 60 50 Before-Tax Income Federal Taxes Top 1 Percent 40 30 20 81st

More information

Small Business Lending At Tenth District Banks

Small Business Lending At Tenth District Banks Small Business Lending At Tenth District Banks By William R. Keeton One of the most important roles commercial banks perform is to lend to small businesses. Such lending is vital to the regional economy

More information

Executive Summary. Model Structure. General Economic Environment and Assumptions

Executive Summary. Model Structure. General Economic Environment and Assumptions Executive Summary The (LTFP) report is an update from the preliminary report presented in January 2009 and reflects the Mayor s Proposed Budget for Fiscal Year 2010 and Fiscal Year 2011. Details of the

More information

Summary. Abbas P. Grammy 1 Professor of Economics California State University, Bakersfield

Summary. Abbas P. Grammy 1 Professor of Economics California State University, Bakersfield The State of the Economy: Kern County, California Summary Abbas P. Grammy 1 Professor of Economics California State University, Bakersfield Kern County households follow national trends. They turned less

More information

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

More information

FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN

FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN VOLUME 38 May 1952 NUMBER 5 Business expenditures for new plant and equipment and for inventory reached a new record level in 1951 together, they exceeded the previous year's total

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY CARLY HARRISON Portland State University Following data revisions, the economy continues to grow steadily, but slowly, in line with expectations. Gross domestic product has increased,

More information

The Small Business Economy. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

The Small Business Economy. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) The Small Business Economy Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Seung Bach, Ph.D., Professor, College of Business Administration, Sacramento State Sanjay Varshney, Ph.D., CFA, Dean, College of Business

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

B u d g e t B r i e f

B u d g e t B r i e f BUDGET PROJECT B u d g e t B r i e f April 1996 IS CALIFORNIA A HIGH TAX STATE? Are California s tax rates uncompetively high? Is the tax burden on households and businesses in California out-of-line with

More information

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Massachusetts Department of Revenue Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing December 11, 2013 Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Kazim P. Ozyurt DIRECTOR OFFICE OF TAX POLICY ANALYSIS

More information

Mid-America Business Conditions Weaken Again: Manufacturing Job Losses Mount as Prices Decline

Mid-America Business Conditions Weaken Again: Manufacturing Job Losses Mount as Prices Decline Interview with Goss can be seen at: https://youtu.be/c4_epgaomg0 For More Information Contact: Ernie Goss, Ph.D., (402) 280-4757 ernieg@creighton.edu Cindy Workman (402) 280-2969 cworkman@creighton.edu

More information

Excluding minimum taxes paid by S-Corporations, which are not part of the corporate kicker base. 2

Excluding minimum taxes paid by S-Corporations, which are not part of the corporate kicker base. 2 REVENUE OUTLOOK Revenue Summary Oregon s General Fund revenue growth slowed at the end of fiscal year 2015, as collections of personal income taxes dried up during May and June. Income taxes withheld out

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics July 2 (May 2 data) Highlights First quarter data revisions were modest. The number of credit unions was revised down by and assets and loans were

More information

Supplemental Unit 5: Fiscal Policy and Budget Deficits

Supplemental Unit 5: Fiscal Policy and Budget Deficits 1 Supplemental Unit 5: Fiscal Policy and Budget Deficits Fiscal and monetary policies are the two major tools available to policy makers to alter total demand, output, and employment. This feature will

More information

EC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02)

EC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02) EC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02) Print Your Name: ID Number: Multiple Choice (32 questions, 2.5 points each; 80 points total). Clearly indicate (by circling) the ONE BEST response to each

More information

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS:

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS: June, Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT 7 8 9 5 United States Real GDP $ billions (fourth quarter) $,996 $,575 $,5 $,9 $5, $5,5 $5,9 $6,5 $7, % change over the four quarters.9% -.8% -.%.8%.%.%.6%.5%.8%

More information

Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians. An Update of Labor Market and Electrician Program Data. November, 2009

Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians. An Update of Labor Market and Electrician Program Data. November, 2009 Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians An Update of Labor Market and Electrician Program Data November, 2009 Prepared by Bruce Steuernagel, Labor Market Analyst Office of the Chancellor Minnesota

More information

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

More information

On March 11, 2010, President Barack

On March 11, 2010, President Barack U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration Introduction Exports Support American Jobs Updated measure will quantify progress as global economy recovers. On March 11, 21, President Barack

More information

RECENT TRENDS IN SELECTED NEBRASKA ECONOMIC NUMBERS Updated August 19, 2016

RECENT TRENDS IN SELECTED NEBRASKA ECONOMIC NUMBERS Updated August 19, 2016 RECENT TRENDS IN SELECTED NEBRASKA ECONOMIC NUMBERS Updated August 19, 2016 LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT: Preliminary numbers from the Nebraska Department Labor show the state s not seasonally adjusted

More information

Economic Benefits of Michigan s Nonprofit Sector May 2014

Economic Benefits of Michigan s Nonprofit Sector May 2014 Economic Benefits of Michigan s Nonprofit Sector May 2014 The following report was prepared for the Michigan Nonprofit Association and the Council of Michigan Foundations by Public Sector Consultants.

More information

Perspective. Economic and Market. Does a 2% 10-year U.S. Bond Yield Make Sense When...

Perspective. Economic and Market. Does a 2% 10-year U.S. Bond Yield Make Sense When... James W. Paulsen, Ph.D. Perspective Bringing you national and global economic trends for more than 30 years Economic and Market January 27, 2015 Does a 2% 10-year U.S. Bond Yield Make Sense When... For

More information

by Robert Kleine Review

by Robert Kleine Review TEE MICHIGAN ECONOMY--ON THE BRINK OF A RECESSION? by Robert Kleine Review For the last two and one-half years, the U.S. economy has expanded at a moderate rate compared with the rapid expansion in 1983

More information

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6 South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

More information

The Effects of TABOR on Municipal Revenues and Spending in Colorado

The Effects of TABOR on Municipal Revenues and Spending in Colorado The Effects of TABOR on Municipal Revenues and Spending in Colorado Colorado s cities and towns face some of the most restrictive constitutional limits on spending and taxing found in the nation. 1 First,

More information

1996 Job Outlook: The New York New Jersey Region James Orr and Rae D. Rosen

1996 Job Outlook: The New York New Jersey Region James Orr and Rae D. Rosen April 1996 Volume 2 Number 5 1996 Job Outlook: The Region James Orr and Rae D. Rosen The region s hard-earned recovery in employment is being overshadowed by ongoing job losses in certain sectors and the

More information

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS:

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS: Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 United States Real GDP $ billions (fourth quarter) $14,996 $14,575 $14,54 $14,942 $15,242 $15,54 $15,942 $16,51 $17,12 % change over

More information

Non Farm Payroll Employment Developments among States during the Great Recession and Jobless Recovery

Non Farm Payroll Employment Developments among States during the Great Recession and Jobless Recovery Non Farm Payroll Employment Developments among States during the Great Recession and Jobless Recovery Prepared by: Paul E. Harrington and Neeta P. Fogg Center for Labor Markets and Policy, Drexel University

More information

July 2013 King County Economic and Revenue Forecast

July 2013 King County Economic and Revenue Forecast July 2013 King County Economic and Revenue Forecast Briefing to the King County Forecast Council July 24 th, 2013 Dave Reich, Chief Economist Office of Economic and Financial Analysis Summary The U.S.

More information

More than in past economic downturns,

More than in past economic downturns, A Great Recession Brief State and Local Budgets and the Great Recession The Russell Sage Foundation and The Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality December 212 Tracy Gordon, The Brookings Institution

More information

2015 Business Outlook Survey

2015 Business Outlook Survey NJBIA s 56th Annual Business Outlook Survey 2015 Business Outlook Survey Expectations in New Jersey remain cautiously optimistic. Sales, profits and hiring are expected to be stable and the outlook remains

More information

GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly

GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly Highlights General Fund revenue through December is $6.5 million

More information

The Property Tax in New York State. Condition Report Prepared for the Education Finance Research Consortium December 2008

The Property Tax in New York State. Condition Report Prepared for the Education Finance Research Consortium December 2008 The Property Tax in New York State Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government 411 State Street Albany, New York 12203 Condition Report Prepared for the Education Finance Research Consortium December

More information

CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth

CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth 93619 CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014 Canadian and U.S. auto sales have strengthened significantly from recession lows. Canadian new motor vehicle sales have surprised

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate

More information

PROTECTION & PROSPERITY THE PROPERTY AND CAUSALTY INSURANCE INDUSTRY S IMPACT ON WISCONSIN

PROTECTION & PROSPERITY THE PROPERTY AND CAUSALTY INSURANCE INDUSTRY S IMPACT ON WISCONSIN PROTECTION & PROSPERITY THE PROPERTY AND CAUSALTY INSURANCE INDUSTRY S IMPACT ON WISCONSIN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In November 2012, the Wisconsin Insurance Alliance asked the Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance (WISTAX)

More information

TIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS. Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc.

TIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS. Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc. TIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc. 5 4 6 7 3 8 3 1 2 Fig. 1 Introduction The business cycle goes through 4 major growth

More information

Phoenix Management Services Lending Climate in America Survey

Phoenix Management Services Lending Climate in America Survey Phoenix Management Services Lending Climate in America Survey 4th Quarter 2010 Summary, Trends and Implications PHOENIX LENDING CLIMATE IN AMERICA QUARTERLY SURVEY SUMMARY, TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS 1. Existing

More information

BAHAMAS. 1. General trends

BAHAMAS. 1. General trends Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014 1 BAHAMAS 1. General trends Growth in the Bahamian economy slowed in 2013 to 0.7%, down from 1.0% in 2012, dampened by a decline in stopover tourism,

More information

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? December 2014 ihs.com Douglas Handler, IHS Chief US Economist, +1 781 301 9283, doug.handler@ihs.com US Economic Overview 2 Executive

More information

ANNUAL FINANCIAL PROFILE OF AMERICA S FRANCHISED NEW-CAR DEALERSHIPS. 2014 www.nada.org/nadadata

ANNUAL FINANCIAL PROFILE OF AMERICA S FRANCHISED NEW-CAR DEALERSHIPS. 2014 www.nada.org/nadadata ANNUAL FINANCIAL PROFILE OF AMERICA S FRANCHISED NEW-CAR DEALERSHIPS 2014 www./nadadata Overview NADA Data 2014 the annual financial profile of America s franchised new-car dealerships shows a robust and

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL SOUTHERN NEVADA QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. Southern Nevada Economy to Continue Growth in 2014 and 2015

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL SOUTHERN NEVADA QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. Southern Nevada Economy to Continue Growth in 2014 and 2015 CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL SOUTHERN NEVADA QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST Quarter 2 2014 Southern Nevada Economy to Continue Growth in 2014 and 2015 S ince the end of the

More information

Small Business Lending Matrix and Analysis

Small Business Lending Matrix and Analysis Small Business Lending Matrix and Analysis The Impact of the Credit Crisis on the Franchise Sector Prepared for the International Franchise Association Educational Foundation Volume IV April 2012 29 FRANdata

More information

ATTACHMENT 1. Sales Tax Revenue Forecast

ATTACHMENT 1. Sales Tax Revenue Forecast ATTACHMENT 1 Sales Tax Revenue Forecast RIVERSIDE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION, DECEMBER 2014 This publica on was prepared by: Beacon Economics, LLC BEACON ECONOMICS Christopher Thornberg Jordan G.

More information

The Big Picture for NEO Small Businesses Shows a Bright Future!

The Big Picture for NEO Small Businesses Shows a Bright Future! The COSE Small Business Monitor provides a quarterly snapshot of opinions, experiences and economic indicators that can provide insight to the economic conditions and concerns of our region s entrepreneurs.

More information

Business Outlook Survey

Business Outlook Survey Business Outlook Survey Results of the Winter 215 16 Survey Vol. 12.4 11 January 216 Overall, responses to the winter Business Outlook Survey indicate that business sentiment has deteriorated as the negative

More information

Agents summary of business conditions

Agents summary of business conditions Agents summary of business conditions Q Activity had generally grown solidly on a year earlier, with contacts attributing increased demand to rises in real incomes and credit availability. Growth among

More information

Economic Effects of Reducing the Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled to Occur in 2013

Economic Effects of Reducing the Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled to Occur in 2013 MAY 2012 Economic Effects of Reducing the Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled to Occur in 2013 If the fiscal policies currently in place are continued in coming years, the revenues collected by the federal

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics May 216 (March 216 Data) Highlights During March, credit unions picked-up 577, in new memberships, loan and savings balances grew at a % and 7.6%

More information

The Business Credit Index

The Business Credit Index The Business Credit Index April 8 Published by the Credit Management Research Centre, Leeds University Business School April 8 1 April 8 THE BUSINESS CREDIT INDEX During the last ten years the Credit Management

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics August 2 (June 2 data) Highlights During June, credit unions picked up 44, new memberships, loan balances grew at an 1 annualized pace, vacation spending

More information

The Causes of the Shortfall: Declining Revenue

The Causes of the Shortfall: Declining Revenue February 24, 2008 Moving From Surplus to Shortfall: The Critical State of Missouri s Revenue and Policy Options Tom Kruckemeyer, Chief Economist Amy Blouin, Executive Director With the 2008 Missouri Legislative

More information

PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR MAY 2015 KEY POINTS

PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR MAY 2015 KEY POINTS PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR MAY 2015 KEY POINTS Passenger travel on international markets rose 6.2% in May compared to a year ago, accelerating on the 3.8% increase in April. Economy class travel grew at a

More information

Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis

Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis 2 The Fed s Efforts to Restore Financial Stability A financial panic in fall 2008 threatened the stability of the global financial system. In its lender-of-last-resort

More information

Industry Sector Analysis

Industry Sector Analysis Industry Sector Analysis Growth, Core, and Competitive-Advantage Industries Southeast Michigan Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, St. Clair and Wayne Counties A Regional Profile Prepared by: Michigan Department

More information

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics December (October Data) Highlights During October, credit unions picked up 3, in new memberships, loan balances grew at a.% seasonallyadjusted annualized

More information

The Case for a Tax Cut

The Case for a Tax Cut The Case for a Tax Cut Alan C. Stockman University of Rochester, and NBER Shadow Open Market Committee April 29-30, 2001 1. Tax Increases Have Created the Surplus Any discussion of tax policy should begin

More information

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE December 2013 Michael Allen, Chair Associate Commissioner for Tax Policy James Breece University of Maine System Melissa Gott State Budget Officer

More information

CURRENT ANALYSIS May 2014

CURRENT ANALYSIS May 2014 CURRENT ANALYSIS May 14 A Look at the Recovery of the Canadian Auto Sector since the 08-09 Recession Chart 1: Motor vehicle production and Canada & US auto sales millions of units 3. Canadian car & truck

More information

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities As we enter 2015, the U.S. economy and housing markets are prepared for a robust start. Unlike one year ago,

More information

Emerging Industry Structure

Emerging Industry Structure Emerging Industry Structure Remodeling remains an unusually fragmented industry. Joint Center estimates from the Census of the Construction Industries indicate that 53, contracting businesses primarily

More information

DEFLATION. Martin Feldstein * When Andrew Crockett called about 10 days ago and invited me to make these remarks, he

DEFLATION. Martin Feldstein * When Andrew Crockett called about 10 days ago and invited me to make these remarks, he DEFLATION Martin Feldstein * Thank you. I am pleased to be here and honored by the opportunity to talk to this distinguished group. When Andrew Crockett called about 10 days ago and invited me to make

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

More information

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank

More information

Cement Supply Survey

Cement Supply Survey June 8, 2004 Cement Shortage Assessment Update Material specifiers frequently have to choose between concrete and alternative building materials. As the use of concrete has grown, cement shortages have

More information

BUSINESS BRIEFING MANUFACTURED HOUSING

BUSINESS BRIEFING MANUFACTURED HOUSING BUSINESS BRIEFING MANUFACTURED HOUSING VALUATION & ADVISORY A Cushman & Wakefield Business Briefing NOVEMBER 2013 DEMAND CAUTIOUSLY RETURNS TO THE MANUFACTURED HOUSING SEGMENT After years of suppressed

More information

Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007

Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007 Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007 Author Name(s): Michael Hardie, Andrew Jowett, Tim Marshall & Philip Wales, Office for National Statistics Abstract The UK s trade performance

More information

Ohio Mid-Market Business Study Summer 2011

Ohio Mid-Market Business Study Summer 2011 Ohio Mid-Market Business Study Summer 2011 Prepared by The Ohio State University Fisher College of Business and the Center for Human Resource Research Executive Summary What can be done to improve the

More information

Main Street ECONOMIST: ECONOMIST THE THE. Economic information. Financing Young and Beginning Farmers. By Nathan Kauffman, Economist

Main Street ECONOMIST: ECONOMIST THE THE. Economic information. Financing Young and Beginning Farmers. By Nathan Kauffman, Economist THE Main Street ECONOMIST: ECONOMIST Economic information Agricultural for the and Cornhusker Rural Analysis State September 201 0 Federal Reserve Bank of of Kansas City Financing Young and Beginning Farmers

More information

JANUARY 1961. Economic Report. or me President TRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS

JANUARY 1961. Economic Report. or me President TRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS JANUARY 1961 Economic Report or me President TRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS Economic Report of the President TRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS JANUARY 18, 1961 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON

More information

The Federal Reserve System. The Structure of the Fed. The Fed s Goals and Targets. Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics

The Federal Reserve System. The Structure of the Fed. The Fed s Goals and Targets. Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics Professor Yamin Ahmad The Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve System, or the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. Supplemental Notes to Monetary

More information

Economic Snapshot for February 2013

Economic Snapshot for February 2013 Economic Snapshot for February 2013 Christian E. Weller on the State of the Economy Christian E. Weller, associate professor, Department of Public Policy and Public Affairs, University of Massachusetts

More information

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS:

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS: Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 United States Real GDP $ billions (fourth quarter) $1,996 $1,575 $1,5 $1,9 $15, $15,5 $15,97 $16,6 % change over the four quarters 1.9% -.8% -.%.8%.%.%.%

More information

4. FINANCIAL POSITION AND RISK EXPOSURE OF HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES

4. FINANCIAL POSITION AND RISK EXPOSURE OF HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES 4. FINANCIAL POSITION AND RISK EXPOSURE OF HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES In 215 H1, households remained oriented towards savings, as shown by the expansion in deposits level. Lending to households expanded

More information

30 7 TH STREET, S UITE 350 MEMORANDUM

30 7 TH STREET, S UITE 350 MEMORANDUM OFFICE OF THE CHANCELLOR WELLS FARGO PLACE ph 651.201.1800 30 7 TH STREET, S UITE 350 fx 651.297.5550 ST. PAUL, MN 55101-7804 www.mnscu.edu DATE: September 15, 2011 MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: Presidents, Chief

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT $ in Billions CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics July 216 (May 216 Data) Highlights During May, credit unions picked-up 431, in new memberships, loan and savings balances grew at an

More information

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111 Risks and Scenarios Introduction The forecasts presented in the Economic and Tax Outlook chapter incorporate a number of judgements about how both the New Zealand and the world economies evolve. Some judgements

More information