Norway s Management of the Petroleum Revenues

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1 UNCTAD Expert Meeting on FDI IN NATURAL RESOURCES November 2006 Norway s Management of the Petroleum Revenues by Mr. Fridjof Berents Assistant Director General The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations

2 Norway s Management of the Petroleum Revenues November 2006 Assistant Director General Fridtjof Berents 1 The labour force is our most important asset Pension and tax system must give incentives for work National wealth per capita 4 % 7 % 1 % Welfare scheme reforms: More people at work - fewer on benefits Good policy fundamentals -sustainable macroeconomic policy 88 % Petroleum Wealth Financial Assets Real Capital Labour Force 2

3 Higher natural resource income reduces GDP growth Transmission channels Dutch disease Poor governance & weak institutions (rent-seeking ) Loss of focus on structural policy GDP/capita vs. share of natural resource export in GDP in 1971 for 97 developing countries GDP per capita Natural resource intensity -> Source: Sachs and Warner (1995) 3 How to avoid the resource curse? Prudent policies, transparency and accountability of operations in a several areas Management and tax regime for the extraction of oil and gas Payments by oil companies (EITI) Planning and execution of government budgets Management of the financial savings (petroleum fund) Public sector institutions of high quality Build consensus on a wise and long-term management of the petroleum wealth to the benefit of all citizens It is important to have a high standard of public understanding, and design policies that emphasize transparency and accountability 4

4 Wealth management from theory to practice: How to manage the petroleum revenues so they can give basis for a permanent wealth increase Spending must be separated from current (volatile) oil & gas income A petroleum fund can support fiscal management and play a separating role if: Wide political and public support Clear rules Stores genuine savings Extraction Path Consumption path after discovery Consumption path before petroleum discovery t 0 Time 5 The Petroleum sector, the Pension Fund Global and the Mainland economy Domestic demand Mainland economy Petroleum activities Government net cash flow Government Pension Fund Global Interest income and Oil and gas export income dividends Abroad Use of oil income Assets abroad 6

5 The Fund mechanism integrated with fiscal policy Return on investments Revenues Petroleum revenues Fund Transfer to finance non-oil budget deficit State Budget 7 Fiscal policy guideline (over time spend real return of the fund)( Expenditures consumption investment (infrastructure, human capital) The current resource management model 8

6 Total government take dominated by petroleum taxes and SDFI Revenue Billion 2005-NOK Oil price 2005-USD Taxes SDFI Dividends Duties Oil price USD 9 Benchmark for the Pension Fund Global Benchmark portfolio Equities 40% Bonds 60% America/ Europe Asia/ Africa Oceania 35 % 50 % 15 % America Europe Asia/ Oceania 35 % 60 % 5 % 10 Equity index: FTSE All World Index Large & Mid Cap Approx equities Fixed income index: Lehman Brothers Global Aggregate/Global Real Government / Agency / Corporate / Securitized Approx bonds

7 The Fund s market value Billion NOK, year end Source: Ministry of Finance, NB07 11 What can be learnt from the Norwegian experience? Successful in: Limiting fiscal spending Sheltering Norwegian economy And more generally: Labour supply has remained high Productivity growth has been good The starting point is very different for Norway than many other countries In a small and resource rich economy a national oil company can become a very dominant institution (SDFI outsourced) An important feature in the Norwegian system is that the state has the regulatory role and not Statoil. But: Still a risk that oil revenues can be a curse 12

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