An integrated econometric + input-output model for the Brazilian economy: an application to the energy sector 1 ABSTRACT

Transcription

1 An inegraed economeric + inpu-oupu model for he Brazilian economy: an applicaion o he energy secor 1 ABSTRACT Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli Rogério Silva de Maos Eduardo Amaral Haddad Marcos Paulo Novaes Silva The principal aim of his paper is he consrucion of an inegraed economeric + inpuoupu model for he Brazilian economy for long-run forecasing of energy consumpion by ype and by secor. The model shows resuls for five ypes of energy (elecriciy, naural gas, renewable energy sources, diesel and oher sources). Yearly forecass are produced for The approach inegraes a ime series economeric model wih an inpu-oupu model. A relevan resul is a connecion esablished beween vecor auoregressive models wih or wihou error correcion mechanisms and closed or open inpu-oupu models. Two forecasing scenarios are se-up: an expansionis scenario ha predics a faser economic growh; and a damped scenario ha predics a smoohed growh. Key words: economeric models, inpu-oupu models, energy secor Inroducion Energy is an essenial inpu for growh and developmen for he modern economies. If we ake energy as a proxy for economic developmen and compare per capia consumpion a indusrialized counries a OECD wih he Brazilian consumpion we verify ha here is a grea difference. The numbers for OECD counries are around 5,5 ep while for Brazilian economy is around 1,39 ep. Furhermore he srucure of energy consumpion of OECD and Brazil is very dissimilar. A OECD fossil fuels are responsible for 81% of oal consumpion. For he Brazilian economy hey represen only 42%. The growh of energy consumpion per year in he world is around 2% and he expecaion is ha in 30 years i will double. The growh process is no uniform. The index a developed counries is around 1%. On he oher hand a developing counries he index is around 4% As we menioned early energy is an essenial inpu for he modern economies. The lieraure uses he energy consumpion as a proxy for he economic growh. The Figure 1 1 The auhors would like o hanks he financial suppor of FAPEMIG and CNPq. Professor a Federal Universiy of Juiz de Fora; CNPq Scholar. Professor a Federal Universiy of Juiz de Fora. Professor a Universiy of Sao Paulo; CNPq Scholar. Research Assisan FAPEMIG.

2 shows he direc relaionship beween energy consumpion and GDP. The figure enables us o verify ha boh variables have he same paern. 2 Figure 1. Brazil: Energy consumpion and GDP: ( ) Year Energy consumpion GDP Source: Elaboraed by he auhors. A deailed analysis of energy consumpion by source (Figure 2) enables us o affirm ha here is a high degree of concenraion in he energy consumpion of renewable and oher sources of energy. Since 1970 hose sources are he mos imporan ones. The diesel oil and elecriciy presen an increasing paern. On he oher hand he naural gas has an increase in is consumpion mainly afer Those energy sources will be examined in more deail in he oher secions of his paper. Figure 2. Brazil: Final consumpion of energy by source Tep 60000, , , , , ,00 0,00 Year Naural Gas Oher Renewable Sources Oher Sources Elericiy Diesel oil Source: Elaboraed by he auhors 2 Energy consumpion is represened in 10 3 and GDP in 10 4.

3 In he las em years he energy consumpion has increased by an average rae of 3.3% per year. A he beginning of he 70 s he energy consumpion was around 60,595 millions of ep and during all decade he average growh was 5.4% by year. A 80 s here was a decrease in he growh of energy demand (average growh was 2%). This could be due o he decrease in he economic growh. During he 90 s here was no any significan difference a he behavior of energy consumpion. I is imporan o highligh ha in 2005 he consumpion was 182,612 millions of ep ha represens 1 ep per capia. A comparison wih 1998 enables us o indicae ha here was a decrease in he consumpion per capia. According o Mukhopadhyay and Chakrabory (2005) he energy requiremen of an economy is sensiive o he rae of economic growh and energy inensiy of producing secors. The energy inensiy is he funcion of echnological progress and i varies from secors o secors. Coninued economic developmen and populaion growh can drive energy demand faser han a counry, like Brazil, can produce i. Brazilian s elecriciy secor faces capaciy problems and frequen blackous in he recen period. Moreover, in he majoriy indusry ciies power supply could be one of he bigges limiaions on progress. The shorfall means he counry will increasingly have o look o alernaive sources of energy supply or impored sources of energy. Thus, his paper ry o conribue o beer undersand he energy discussion in Brazil hrough a specificaion of an inegraed economeric inpu-oupu model ha will enable us o measure he secorial energeic pressures. This paper presens a lieraure review in he second secion. The hird secion discusses he mehodology and he fourh secion presens he main resuls. And we made some final remarks a he las secion. 2. Lieraure Review Rey (1999) affirms ha one of he advanages in he implemenaion of an EC+IO model consiss on he resricive assumpions of each componen model (i.e, EC and IO) when used in isolaion. I is imporan o highligh ha during he early developmen of he field of regional science he classic regional IO model became a very popular insrumen of analysis. Despie he widespread applicaion some limiaions inheren of he IO models was discussed in he lieraure. Chief among hese were he assumpions of linear producion echnologies; consan reurns o scale; homogeneous consumpion funcions; and price inflexibiliy. On he oher hand, he Economeric (EC) models did no became as popular as IO models. This is because, in par, by he necessiy of daa and calibraion requiremens of hese models. According o Beaumon (1990), he IO and EC models are macroeconomic in naure. The auhor affirms ha he difference beween hese models is based on heir respecive views of regional economies. IO models are classified as a general equilibrium one in he sense ha he markes clear. This process is represened ino he IO framework hrough he supply adjusmens o demand shocks. I is imporan o emphasize ha prices play no role

4 in he marke response. On he oher hand he EC componen ofen depics regional economies in a parial conex. The focus of hese models is on he dynamic adjusmen pah of he economy o exogenous shocks. However, despie his fundamenal heoreical difference beween he IO and EC models, boh are essenially demand driven when applied a he regional scale. According o Rey, Wes and Janikas (2005) wo versions of he EC+IO model can be specified: a closed model and an opened model. The closed and opened erms are closed relaed o he inpu-oupu module ha is one of he pars of EC + IO model. A closed model an ECM is inegraed wih he inpu-oupu framework. A his srucure he household consumpion é endogenous. On he oher hand, he VAR is inegraed wih a regular inpu-oupu model, which means ha he inpu-oupu model will be opened for he final demand componens. The economeric model is he firs sep in he consrucion of an EC+IP model. The EC par is used o represen he final demand componens Y, C, G, I and NE 3. Mehodology The mehodological approach used in his paper is based on he inegraed economeric + inpu-oupu model (EC+IO) of Maos e al (2005). Building upon approaches described in Ray, Wes e Janikas (2005), hese auhors developed an EC+IO model for he Brazilian economy exended o incorporae an (aggregae) energy secor. The model was srucured hierarchically under a op-down sraegy. A he op of he hierarchy, an economeric model (EC) was se up o describe he behavior of final demand componens. These componens hen ener as exogenous variables o an inpu-oupu (IO) model designed o describe he producion by secor. By is urn, he producion vecor variables ener as exogenous variables o an energy demand module designed o describe he (aggregae) energy consumpion by secor. In he presen applicaion, a sligh exension of Maos e al s model was developed: The energy demand module was disaggregaed o describe he energy consumpion according o five caegories of energy usage. In his secion, a brief presenaion of he model is made (furher deails, see Maos e al, 2005). 3. Basic Ideniies Maos e al (2005) sared from a se of ideniies upon which he overall srucure of heir EC+IO model was developed. These ideniies are he following: Y = C + G + I + E (1) X F = h C + h G + h I + ne (2) C G I ne = h E h M (3) Ex X M

5 X = AX + F (4) E = PX (5) In he equaions above, Y is he gross domesic income, C he household consumpion, G he governmen purchases, I he privae invesmen, Ex he expors, and M he impors, all measured in moneary erms. X, F and ne are, respecively, n 1 producion, final demand and ne expors vecors by secors. h C, h G, h I, h Ex and h M are n 1 vecors ha will enable he secorial disaggregaion of he final demand componens, following he srucure presened below: n n n n n Σ i= 1 h C, i = Σi= 1hG, i = Σ i= 1hI, i = Σi= 1hEx, i = Σi= 1hM = P is a n n diagonal marix ha he principal diagonal are formed by he secorial energy coefficiens measured in ep/r$ and E is a n 1 secoral energy consumpion measured in ep. The subscrip is used o show ime The economeric module The economeric model is he firs hierarchical module of Maos e al s model. The economeric model is used o characerize he daa generaion process for he final demand componens, represened by Y, C, G, I, Ex and M. The Y and C componens are regarded as endogenous variables and he ohers as exogenous. As explained earlier, all final demand componens are exogenous variables in he IP module, bu in he EC module only C and Y variables are regarded as endogenous. The main aim was he esimaion of a relaion beween C and Y as a Keynesian specificaion: C = co + c1y1 + ε1 (6) and aking ino accoun he Y ideniy, represened by equaion (1). A he specific case represened by he equaion (6) i is imporan o highligh ha is no convenien o esimae he relaion C and Y in level, mainly if hey were co-inegraed (e.g Enders, 2003). I is possible o have esimaion and inefficien use of informaion upon he generaor daa process. Thus is recommended by he lieraure o esimae equaion (6) for saionary variables in differences and using a Vecor Error Correcion (ECV) or a Vecor of Auoregressive (VAR) model specificaion (see Enders, 2003). The decision o specific a VAR or ECV model is based on he hypohesis of co-inegraion. If he variables are no co-inegraed i is recommended o specific a VAR model. And, if he variables are co-inegraed he lieraure recommends o specific an ECV model.

6 The general specificaion of a model o esimae he relaion beween C and Y is showed by he equaion (7). The equaion shows an ECV model. The VAR model has he same srucure bu he firs erm. W = α ( C + e (7) 1 c0 c1y 1 ) + Θ1 W 1 + Ψ0 Z + Ψ1 Z 1 C α1 θ 11 θ12 where: W =, Z = a vecor (mx1) of exogenous variables, α = Y, Θ1 = α 2 θ 21 θ 22 Ψ 0 γ = γ 0,11 0,21 L L γ γ 0,1m 0,2m γ 1,11 L γ 1,1m, Ψ1 = γ 1,21 L γ 1,2m e e e = e 1 2. Maos e al (2005) showed ha here are wo ways of inegraing he EC module (represened by equaion 7) and he IP module. In he firs, if C and Y are co-inegraed, we mus use a closed IP module where household consumpion is endogeneized, while in he second, if C and Y are no co-inegraed, we mus use an open IP module The Inpu-oupu module The IO model is he second module in he hierarchy of he EC+IO model. Given numerical informaion on final demand, i is possible o use he IP module o calculae impacs upon producion and energy demand by producive secor. Manipulaing expressions (1) o (5), i is possible o develop wo versions of IO model: one closed and oher opened. The closed model is based on he idea of household consumpion endogenous and can be represened by he following equaions: X F 1 * = Γ (8) Γ = I A h α c i ] (9) [ C 1 1 nq [ C 1 1( C 1 c0 + c1 Y ) + V ] + hgg + hi I ne F α + (10) * = hc Expressions (8)-(10) provide a mehod o make forecass of he impacs upon producion by secor using he closed model. The exogenous variables are G, I, E x and M. The energy demand is calculaed using he equaion (5). The open model is represened by he following equaions: 1 X = Γ F (11) 3 For deails on his specific opic, see Maos e al (2005).

7 Γ = [ I A] (12) F = h C + h G + h I + ne (13) C G I Expressions (11) (13) form he open IO model. In his case he exogenous variables are C, G, I, E x and M. Variable C has o be consruced based on he VAR equaion (he equaion (7) wihou he co-inegraion erm). Fuures scenarios are specific for he oher variables. The energy demand is calculaed using he equaion (5). 4. Daa base This secion describes he daa base used in he consrucion of he EC+IP model. In order o esimae he economeric model (EC module), we use annual daa, from 1960 o 2005, calculaed by he Naional Accoun Sysem from IBGE for he final demand componens: GDP (Y), household consumpion (C), invesmen (I), expors (E x ) and impors (M). The series was aken from IPEADATA. The G was calculaed by resides using he equaion (1). In he case of Y, C, G and I he series was aken a curren prices and ransformed o consan prices hrough GDP implici deflaor. The expors and impors daa were obained in US$mil and convered o R$mil a curren prices using he annual average exchange rae. Afer his he daa base was ransformed ino consan prices of 2005 (R$mil). In order o consruc he IP model we use he IP marices esimaed by Guilhoo and Sesso (2004) for he year 1997 o 2001 and he energy daa was aken from he Naional Energeic Balance (Brasil/MME, 2004). I was necessary o implemen a compaibilizaion (see Annex) beween hose daa base. The IP marices enables us o consruc he echnical coefficien marices, A, he desegregaion vecors h C, h G, h I, h EX and h M, and he coefficiens marix of value added Q. The marices A and Q were buil using only he 2001 year, ha shows he more recen informaion, bu he desegregaion vecors are calculaed as averages of The daa from Naional Energeic Balance enables he consrucion of energy coefficien, P. 5. Resuls analysis 5.1 Economeric Analysis This secion describes he economeric par of he EC+IP model specified in he equaion XX. The economeric model represen he final demand componens considering C and Y endogenous and G, I, E x and M exogenous. The esimaion process followed he paern in ime series economeric. Firs of all, we analyze he presence of nonsaionary variables using he uni roo ess; second of all we verify he exisence or no of co-inegraion among he variables and finally we implemen he economeric model.

8 We implemen he Augmened Dickey and Fuller (ADF) es for he five variables C, Y, G, I and NE. The resuls are presened in Table 1. For each variable we implemen hree models. a) series in level wih a drif; b) series in level wih a drif and endency, and; c) series in he firs difference. The number of lags in each case was based in he Akaike (AIC) and Schwarz (SIC) crierion. As presened in Table 1, he variables, C, Y and NX are nonsaionary in he models a and b. For all he variables are saionary in he firs difference form. Table 1: Uni roo ess (ADF) Variable Model nº of lags saisic Criical Value 1% 5% 10% C drif C drif and endency C drif Y drif Y drif and endency Y drif G drif G drif and endency G drif I drif I drif and endency I drif NE drif NE drif and endency NE Drif Source: Elaboraed by auhors base don daabase descrip in secion XX. Means he rejecion of null hypohesis of nonsaionariey for a siginificance level of 1%. Means he rejecion of null hypohesis of nonsaionariey for a siginificance level of 5%. Table 2 shows he co-inegraion ess for he endogenous variables C and Y. We implemen he Johansen and Engle and Granger ess. The second is based on an Augmened Dickey and Fuller es in he resides. Boh ess rejeced, a 5% significance level, he null hypohesis of co-inegraion. Someone can hink ha his kind of resul in unexpeced because we have he idea of a co-inegraion beween consumpion and income. We can explain he resuls base on he idea ha during he 45 years ( ) we presen echnological changes, consumpion preferences, ec. Those changes can cause an impac in he long run relaionship beween C and Y.

9 Table 2: Coinegraion ess beween he variables, consumpion and GDP. Johansen Tes Hypohesis: consan in he co-inegraion equaion Eingevalue Maximum Likelihood Criical values 5% 1% Nº of ECs* in he Null Hyp 0,131 6,36 15,41 20,04 0 0,004 0,18 3,76 6,65 máx. 1 Engle-Granger Level regression: C = ,554Y ADF resides es nº de lags saisic Criical values 1% 5% 10% 0-1,764-3,585-2,928-2,602 Source: Elaboraed by auhors based on daabase descrip in secion XX. *EC = co-inegraion equaion Due he non exisence of co-inegraion beween C and Y we will esimae he economeric model by a VAR. The resuls are presened a Table 3. The maximum lag used a VAR model was one. This choice was based on he informaion crierion (AIC and SC). For consumpion equaion we included hree dummy variables. D81, D87 and D88. Those dummies are for capure de high decrease in he consumpion ha occurred in 1981, 1987 and The 1981 dummy represens he beginning of a resricive policy adoped by he policymakers and he dummies for 1987 and 1988 represen a bubble a consumpion ha happened afer wo plans for sabilizaion (Cruzado a 1986 and Bresser a 1987). For he income equaion we pu hree dummies also. For he years 1981, 1988 and The firs and he hird dummy are o represen he effecs of hyperinflaion and he resricive shock due o de Collor Plan.

10 Table 3. VAR model Variables D(CO) D(Y) D(CO(-1)) - - D(Y(-1)) ( ) ( ) C ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) D E E+08 ( ) ( ) D ( ) - D ( ) ( ) D E+08 - ( ) R-squared Adj. R-squared Akaike AIC Schwarz SC Source: Elaboraed by he auhors Number of observaions: 44 -saisics in parenhesis. We consruc wo alernaive scenarios for he exogenous variables. Those scenarios are presened a Table 4. Based on hose scenarios, we made annual forecass for using he VAR model presened a Table 3. The VAR model does no incorporae he exogenous variables G, I and Ex alhough, hey are deerminan of Y as showed by he equaion (1). Thus, in order o calculae he forecass for endogenous variables we used only he equaion for consumpion variaion (Table 3). The forecass for income were made using he following ideniy: Y = C + G + I + E (14) X The firs scenario called expansionis represens a more dynamic paern for he Brazilian economy. All he variables presen an increasing rajecory afer The second scenario, ha represens a conracion for he Brazilian economy is characerized by a lower degree of growh o governmen consumpion, expors and impors and a decrease in he invesmen for 2007 and For he 2009 and 2010 year we forecas sagnaion. The 2006 in boh scenarios is consruced in he same way. We used informaion from IBGE o consruc hose behaviors for he basic year. The resuls of he applicaion of he economeric model a Table 3 in each one of he scenarios poined earlier are he forecass for he endogenous variables C and Y for he

11 period presened a Table 4. A he expansionis scenario, he consumpion grows o R$ 1.51 rillions in A he same scenario he income grows o R$ 2.59 rillions in 2010

12 Table 4.Fuure Scenarios Endogenous Endogenous Scenarios/Variables Var. (%) R$ billions de 2004 R$ billions de 2004 G* I EX M NE G* I X M NE C Y Expansionis % 4.3% 4.7% 9.4% -3.0% 412, , , , ,673 1,110,923 2,011, % 5.0% 4.0% 4.5% 3.1% 433, , , , ,920 1,165,044 2,108, % 5.0% 3.0% 3.5% 2.1% 455, , , , ,163 1,245,901 2,233, % 5.0% 3.0% 3.5% 2.0% 477, , , , ,438 1,359,899 2,393, Damped 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 501, , , , ,610 1,514,977 2,596, % 4.3% 4.7% 9.4% -3.0% 412, , , , ,673 1,110,923 2,011, % -5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.1% 433, , , , ,940 1,165,044 2,069, % -5.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 455, , , , ,070 1,245,901 2,155, % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 455, , , , ,070 1,359,899 2,269, Source: Elaboraed by he auhors 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 455, , , , ,070 1,514,977 2,424,282

13 5.2 Inpu-oupu analysis: secor resuls The wo scenarios for he exogenous variables and is forecass consruced by he VAR analysis for he endogenous variables (las wo columns a Table 4) were used as inpus for he IP par of he EC+IP model. Due o he nonexisence of co-inegraion beween C and Y he IP version used o implemen he secoral forecass for energy use was he open model (see secion hree). We compue annual forecass for each ype of energy consumpion by secor for he period 2006 o The resuls for he expansionis scenario are presened a Tables 5A o 5E and he resuls for he damped scenario are presened a Tables 6A o 6E Naural Gas Consumpion The resuls a Tables 5A and 6A show ha: a) Chemicals, oher secor, ransporaion and seel are he secors ha presen he highes naural gas consumpion boh for he expansionis and conracion scenario; b) Food and Beverages, mining, exiles, rade and services and nonferrous meals are secors ha presen a medium naural gas consumpion for he boh scenarios; c) Nonmeallic minerals, public adminisraion and agriculure are secors ha presen he lowes naural gas consumpion for he boh scenarios Oher renewable sources of energy consumpion The resuls a Tables 5B and 6B show ha: a) Food and Beverages, ransporaion, paper producs and prining, seel and agriculure are he secors ha presen he highes oher renewable sources of energy consumpion for he boh scenarios; b) Nonmeallic minerals, chemicals, rade and services and exiles are secors ha presen a medium oher renewable sources of energy consumpion for he boh scenarios; c) Mining, public adminisraion and nonferrous meals are secors ha presen he lowes oher renewable sources of energy Elecriciy The resuls a Tables 5C and 6C show ha: a) Trade and services, oher secors, nonferrous meals, food and beverages, chemicals and public adminisraion are he secors ha presen he highes elecriciy consumpion for he boh scenarios; b) Agriculure, seel, paper producs and prining and exiles are he secors ha presen he medium elecriciy consumpion for he boh scenarios; c) Mining, nonmeallic meals and ransporaion are he secors ha presen he lowes elecriciy consumpion for he boh scenarios Oher sources of energy The resuls a Tables 5D and 6D show ha:

14 a) Transporaion, seel and chemicals are he secors ha presen he highes oher sources of energy consumpion for he boh scenarios; b) Nonmeallic meals, oher secors, food and beverages, paper producs and prining, nonferrous meals and mining presen a medium oher sources of energy consumpion for he boh scenarios; c) Trade and services, exiles, public adminisraion and agriculure presen he lowes oher sources of energy consumpion for he boh scenarios Diesel Oil The resuls a Tables 5E and 6E show ha: a) Transporaion, agriculure are he secors ha presen he highes diesel oil consumpion for he boh scenarios; b) Mining is he secor ha presen he medium consumpion for he boh scenarios; c) Nonmeallic minerals, seel, nonferrous meals, paper producs and prining, chemicals, exiles, food and beverages, rade and services, ransporaion, public adminisraion and oher secors presen he lowes diesel oil consumpion for he boh scenarios.

15 Table 5A Forecass for he Naural Gas Consumpion - Expansionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal Table 6A Forecass for he Naural Gas Consumpion - Conracionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal

16 Table 5B Forecass for Oher Renewable Sources of Energy - Expansionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal Table 6B Forecass for Oher Renewable Sources of Energy - Conracionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal

17 Table 5C Forecass for Elecriciy - Expansionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal Table 6C Forecass for Elecriciy - Conracionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal

18 Table 5D Forecass for Oher Sources - Expansionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal Table 6D Forecass for Oher Sources - Conracionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal

19 Table 5E Forecass for Diesel Oil - Expansionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal Table 6E Forecass for Diesel Oil - Conracionis Scenario Model/Secors Mil ep Opened Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Toal Figures 4 and 5 shows he behavior of naural gas and elecriciy consumpion by secor and period. Those figures enable us o affirm ha here is a growing perspecive for all he consumpion of naural gas and elecriciy for he majoriy of he secors. For naural gas we can verify ha Chemicals is he secor ha presens he highes level of consumpion. In erms of elecriciy i is possible o verify he imporance of he Trade and Services secor. I is imporan o highligh he difference beween he consumpion in boh secors. In absolue erms he forecas for he consumpion of naural gas is around 1,2 millions of ep and he forecas for he consumpion of elecriciy is around 4,0 millions of ep.

20 Figure 3. Naural gas consumpion: Forecass ( ) 1,400 1,200 Naural gas consumpion in ep 1, Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Secors Source: Elaboraed by he auhors based on he resuls from he model. 4,000 Figure 4. Elecriciy: Forecass ( ) 3,500 Elecriciy consumpion (in ep) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Agriculure Mining Nonmeallic Minerals Seel Nonferrous meals Paper producs and prining Chemicals Texiles Food and Beverages Trade and Services Transporaion Public Adminisraion Oher Secors Secors Source: Elaboraed by he auhors based on he resuls from he model.

21 Conclusions The presen paper shows a possible exension of he economeric inpu-oupu paper consruced by Maos e al (2005). The model proposed and implemened in his paper enables us o have resuls for a five differen ypes of energy projeced unil The field of EC+IO modeling is rapidly evolving on boh empirical and heoreical frons. Is his paper we used he approach of VAR and ECV models o link wih he IO par. The inegraion of EC and IO models consiued an improvemen in regional and impac analysis. There is a bunch of mehodological characerisics ha has o be invesigaed. The resuls enable us o deal wih he idea ha he oal requiremen of energy in Brazil will increase. The naural gas is he source ha pu less pressure in ha rajecory. On he oher hand oher sources of energy are he source ha pu he highes pressure in ha rajecory. References Beaumon, P. M. (1990). Supply and demand ineracion: Inegraed economeric and inpuoupu models. Inernaional Regional Science Review, 13: Enders, W. (2003). Applied Economeric Time Series. New York: Wiley. Guilhoo, J. J. M e Sesso Filho, U. A. (2004) Esimação da mariz insumo-produo a parir de dados preliminares das Conas Nacionais. Revisa de Economia Aplicada, São Paulo, v. 9, n. 2, p Maos, R. S., Perobelli, F.S., Rodrigues, W.R., and Haddad, E., Inegração de modelos economérico e de insumo produo para previsões de longo prazo da demanda de energia no Brasil. Manuscrip (submied) Mukhopadhyay, K and Chakrabory, D (2005). Energy inensiy in India during pre-reform and reform period an inpu-oupu analysis. In Annals of 15 h Inernaional Inpu-oupu conference. Naional Energeic Balance (Brasil/MME, 2004). Rey, S; Wes, G and Janikas, M (2005). "Uncerainy in Inegraed Regional Models," Economic Sysems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages , Sepember. Rey, S (1999). Inegraed regional economeric model and inpu-oupu modelling. Discussion Paper San Diego Sae Universiy.