3. Components of social development

Transcription

1 3. Components of social development 3.1. Proportions of economy performance and social development Growth of household consumption fell behind the GDP growth Favourable economic development after 2 and acceleration of growth in the last three years was reflected also in increased household consumption 8 ; however, it grew slower, its contribution to the GDP at current prices shrank. Other components, gross capital formation, government expenditure on collective consumption and exports in total were growing faster. Graph GDP and household consumption (in CZK billion, current prices) Graph Current income of households and gross disposable income of households (in CZK billion, current prices) GDP household consumption share household current income GDI share Household saving rate decreased Current (gross) household income representing source of household expenditures grew faster than the GDP. In 27, their updated structure was the following: 55 % of current income made compensations to employees (wages incl. employer s social contributions). Gross operating surplus (incl. depreciations) which makes income of self-employees and income from property made together 24%. Social benefits (excl. benefits in kind) made 17% of household current income. The growth of disposable household income (net financial income of households reduced by income and property tax and insurance contributions) was slower compared to the GDP growth (at current prices). Households compensated their consumption by lower gross saving rate and, consequently, household expenditures on current consumption grew faster than their gross disposable income. In addition, the redistribution inside the sector increased since the debts of some households grew faster. 8 The total of financial expenditures of households on final consumption and of social transfers in kinds (free-of charge services). Household consumption as defined above is used in Graph

2 Graph GDI and household expenditures (in CZK billion, current prices) 9 Graph Expenditures of state and households on health and education (in CZK billion, current prices) % government institutions, health households, health government institutions, education households, education GDI consumption expenditures gross saving rate Changes in the structure of expenditures were corrected by differentiated price growth State expenditures on individual consumption were fed mainly to health care, to lesser extent to education. They recorded a decelerated growth. In household consumption the fastest growth was reported for housing expenditures (rentals and services), then on transport, post and telecommunications while expenditures on food stagnated. In comparison, expenditures of households on health and education were relatively low showing, however, an upward trend. Fast growth of expenditures on purchase of dwellings forms part of capital expenditures (of gross savings). Real growth of the population consumption and its structure was however corrected by the living costs growth. The analysed period showed itself by relatively low price growth, however, with significant differences between individual items. The most rapid growth recorded prices of most dynamic items of expenditures. Graph Household expenditures (in CZK billion, current prices) Graph Consumer prices (year 25=1) food rentals and housing transport, post and telecommunications total housing post and telecom. education food transport health Household income differentiation Relatively high growth of GDP brought the Czech Republic nearer to the EU average level. In respect of the above mentioned, the standard of living of the population measured by the household consumption was approaching the EU average at slower rate. On the other hand, the differentiation of incomes which is gradually increasing,

3 remains relatively low. The number of people threatened by income poverty is lower than the average recorded for the EU countries. Poverty is a sensitive and relative concept and it is therefore necessary to formulate a precise definition. Common international comparison is given in percentage of persons disposing with net income below 6% of the median. In 25, the Czech Republic recorded only 9.8% of persons below this limit, i.e. below 6% of the median of equalized (adjusted) income while the EU 25 average was 16% of persons. In the year-on-year (25/24) comparison in the CR the number of persons threatened by poverty fell by 54 thousand. However, this group included 43.7% of the unemployed, only 6.7% of pensioners, 13.2% of families with children but 4.4% of one-parent families and 28.7% of families with 3 and more children. Graph 3.1.7a Differentiation of annual income Graph 3.1.7b Differentiation of annual income gross income per head gross income per household 35 3 gross income per head net income per head social income per head thous. CZK thous. CZK households broken by deciles according to net financial income per head households broken by deciles according to net financial income per head 3.2. Housing market - characteristics International standing of the CR improved Housing has become an important social phenomenon showing some positive but also disputable features. Number of dwellings under constructions rose after the drop in the first half of the 199 s in the long term perspective from This development was recorded in 26 but in 27 it resumed its trend when altogether dwellings were completed. International comparison suggests that at the same time, intensity of construction in EU 15 was falling and that both contradictory trends caused the CR approximated the EU 15 level. (Intensity of housing construction in 24 was in FRG 3.4 dwellings per thousand of persons, in the Netherlands 4. dwellings, in Austria 5.2 dwellings and in France 5.8 dwellings). If, according to the population census in 21 there was 27.7 m 2 per head, according the CZSO survey in 26 there were 3 m 2 per head which is a marked improvement over five years contributing to better international standing of the Czech Republic. For the purpose of comparison here are data for Austria - 38,4 m 2 (23), FRG 4.1 m 2 (22) and France 37.5 m 2 (22) 9. 9 Housing statistics in the European Union, 24.

4 Graph Intensity of construction (in %) Graph Completed dwellings by use 4, % 3,5 3 number of dwellings , , completed dwellings without extension for sale commercial rentals social rentals family houses residential buildings Note: Intensity of construction, number of completed dwellings over the year per 1 mid-year persons. Significant trend in the structure of final use of dwellings Growing effective demand for dwellings Two characteristic trends were observed: numbers of completed dwellings in family houses were higher than in multi-dwelling houses and the total number of dwellings completed in multi-dwelling houses were most contributed to by dwellings designed for sale as personal property, contribution of dwellings designed for commercial or social rent was relatively low. If, according to the above mention survey of the CZSO in 26, the share of households living in tenement houses stood at 25%, e.g. in countries such as Austria, Germany, France or the Netherlands in 2 5-7% of households with income lower that 6% of the median were living in tenement houses; in the countries in the South of Europe the situation differs 1. These changes in the structure of supply (measured by shares would be even more obvious) have more serious causes and consequences. Purchase of one s own dwelling is an investment exceeding many times annual income of majority of the population as well as the average level their savings. Yet the effective demand for dwellings recorded a fast increase in the last years. Savings in building society increased for the last ten years six times from CZK 6 billion in 1997 to CZK 36 billion at the end of 26. They were linked with credits (incl. stand-by credits) which increased dramatically for the same period from CZK 6 billion to CZK 135 billion. (If their volume at the end of 1997 made 1% of savings in building society, in 26 the volume increased up to 37.6%). Accumulated premium of mortgage loans granted to citizens increased for the last five years (22 27) from CZK 68 billion to 469 billion, i.e. almost 7 times. Accumulated premium of mortgage loans granted to legal entities is also worth mentioning while low initial original amount of credits granted to municipalities continues to fall. Citizens spend a major part of mortgage on housing, however, only smaller part of goes to construction. 1 Housing Statistics in the European Union 25/26, Ministry of Infrastructure, Italy 25.

5 Graph Savings in building society (in CZK billion) Graph Mortgage loans granted to the population (accumulated volume in CZK billion) saving related credits CZK bill Source: Ministry of Regional Development Source: Selected data on housing, MRD; mortgage banks Change of ownership and transfer of sources Growing housing costs Non-intangible part of sources available to natural persons was not, however, spent on ne dwelling purchase. This applies to savings in building society which can be used also for other purposes (purchase of furnishings, etc.), and also to mortgage loans which serve for purchase of the existing dwelling (if measured by the purpose of mortgage, dwellings would make two thirds). At the same time, the transfer of ownership takes place as well as transfer of financial resources; however, the demand for new, i.e. additional dwellings is not met. It is also important that these financial resourced from housing markets then to a great extent disappear unless the seller used them for the construction of new dwellings. This, however, is not the case either for municipalities or for individuals sellers. Fast growing effective demand for dwellings represents only in part the demand for housing construction and in part represents only costs related to a change of ownership. The value of purchase of a dwelling recorded a long-term growth, prices of dwellings grew faster showing naturally big regional differences. Construction itself benefited only in part from the price growth, big amounts of money went to investors (developers) and owners of dwellings. It would be so to say quite normal if this profit led back to meet the demand, i.e. back investment to housing construction. Unfortunately, it is not that easy with respect to the above mentioned when part of effective demand is swallowed by transfer. Rentals grew as well with big regional differences even if the growth of regulated rentals was frozen for a couple of years. In 27, rentals markedly increased and their level resumed the previous trend after being frozen for a few years. (It should be noted that rentals make only about 2% of total housing costs, decisive are costs of energy). It is important to break rentals (costs related to operation and maintenance of a dwelling) by ownership although differences can be to a certain extent explained by the fact the homeowners, as a rule, sub-value costs of maintenance and do not calculate depreciations. Contract rentals in 21 more than double regulated rentals grew actually faster.

6 Graph Price per m 2 of habitable area (in CZK) Graph Rentals by homeownership (monthly rentals, dwelling of the 1st category, 2 habitable rooms ) CZK 25 CZK family houses residential buildings rental dwellings dwellings of housing association dwellings in ownership Lack of rental dwellings: courses and consequences Monthly rentals do not represent in most cases such costs as average monthly down payment of mortgage loan and tenement houses would therefore be in this respect more beneficial. However, the supply of tenement dwellings grew slowly and supply of affordable social dwellings 11 is insufficient. Construction of multi-dwelling buildings for rent is limited and existing tenement dwellings are massively sold due to several reasons. Investors who would consider the construction of tenement dwellings (this does not apply only to private developers but also to municipalities or original company dwellings) argue that the level of rentals does not provide space to include costs related to maintenance and profit plus depreciations. Mortgage loans are affordable (moreover supported by state in form of tax relieves), tenement dwellings are not available and not even new; the number of tenement dwellings falls as such. Demand for purchase of dwellings (instead of renting) was partly due to the structure of supply. So far, developers could with a little risk and relatively big profit invest and even accept higher price due to the price increase of construction work and mainly due to higher prices of land plots because they sold the dwelling successfully. Consequences of the above are obvious. Argument that preference of homeownership is in line with historical tradition (most of the population lived in own houses before the boom of mass construction of panel houses) had one - structural - defect: own houses were prevailed in the country, in towns prevailed tenement houses. Anyway, major part of capital expenditures on housing disappears in housing market without any equivalent in form of new dwellings which is an important macroeconomic phenomenon Some impacts of the population aging on public finance The life span of the Czech population is longer due to better quality of life. Life expectancy at birth reached in 27 for men 73.7 years and 79.9 years for women. In the year-on-year comparison, the life expectancy increased by.2 year both for women and men. The extension of life is linked with extension of the population average age which in 27 reached 4.3 years (38.7 years for men and 41.8 years for women). Compared with the previous year, the average age increased by.1 year and from 2 the average age increased by 1.5 year. This, certainly positive development, entails more expensive solidarity with the old-age pensioners. Retirement age is extending in the last years, however, it still does not correspond with the age extension rate. Thereby, more old-age pensions are paid out annually which naturally affects expenditures from pension insurance income. 11 Definition of affordable social dwellings does not exist. The Ministry of Local Development prepares the definition for the forthcoming act.

7 Pension expenditures grow faster than their number Growing oldage pensions used for covering of rentals and energy consumption In 27, old-age pensions were paid amounting to CZK million in total. Compared to the previous year the number of paid out old-age pensions increased by (i.e. by 1.9%) and the amount paid rose by CZK million (i.e. by 7.9%). From 2, the number of old-age pensions increased, y-o-y, by 1.1%, expenditures on the old-age pensions by 6.5%. However, the amount paid grew faster than the number of the old-age pensions which was due to the increase of the average oldage pension in the years 23 and 24. Pensions began to increase more markedly from 25. The average monthly old-age pension in 27 reached CZK and increased, y- o-y, by CZK 563 (by 6.9%). The average monthly expenditures of an independent pensioner in household without economically active household members reached CZK which was by 5.5% more in nominal terms and by 1.7% more in real terms than in the previous year. The biggest item was expenditures on housing, water supply, electricity and fuel (27.4%) and on food (25.8%). From 2, the average monthly old-age pension increased, y-o-y, by 5.6%, in 27 the growth was above-average, in total the old-age pension in 27 was by 46.5% higher than in 2. Inflation reached in the same period 17.9%. The consumer price index for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased over 7 years by 9.8% and for housing, water supply, electricity and fuels it rose dramatically by 4.7%. Fast growth was also recorded in health (by 35.2%). Most of the increasing old-age pensions covered raising rentals, prices of electricity, water supply, fuels and health care. Graph , 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,, -1, Paid out old-age pensions and expenditures on old-age pensions (y-o-y change in %) number of paid up pensions old-age pension expenditures Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs Graph , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,, Average old-age pension and expenditures of old-age pensioners (y-o-y change in %) average pension old-age pensions nominal expenditures Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs Average wage growth faster than the old-age pensions In the population the share of people at retirement age is increasing If we compare the old-age pensions development to the average wage development then the old-age pension in 2 reached 44.2% of gross wage and 57.1% of net wage. In 27 the percentage fell to 4.6% of gross wage and 53.% of net wage. In real terms as of 2 and then in 27 old-age pensions were higher by 18.3%, gross wages by 35.3% and net wages by 34.%. It is obvious that the growth of oldage pensions is slower that that of wages. As of 31 December 27, in the Czech Republic there were persons in the age-group -14 years, persons in the age-group years and persons in the age group 65+. According to demographic project of the population in the Czech Republic in the upcoming period the number of economically active persons will fall. According to the medium variant of the projection in 235 the age group will include 6.3 million persons (i.e. 63.6% of total population). On the other hand, the number of persons at retirement age will increase and according to the medium variant of the projection in 235 the age group 65+ will include 2.4 million individuals (24.1% of the population).

8 In 27, income from pension insurance accounted for CZK 34.9 billion of which the old-age pension insurance benefits were paid out in the amount of CZK 23.9 billion. In the period 21 to 27 the average y-o-y growth of old-age pension was 5.6% and the average y-o-y growth of gross wage was 6.9%. Graph Projection of the population medium variant (share of age groups in the population in %) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Health care expenditures The extension of the population ages is undoubtedly subject also to improving health care. These practices include prevention as such and then the use of the latest medical knowledge. This requires high costs which, however, bring positive results. From 2 for better transparency of health care funding the system of health accounts is applied in the CR in compliance with international standards. This approach enables to analyse expenditures on health care by source of finance, kind of care or type of provider. Heath expenditures grow Health care in the Czech Republic in 26 was funded from three main sources: health insurance companies (public health insurance made 77.7%), public budgets (state budget 6.5% and local budgets 3.8%) and private sector (household 11.5%, corporations and other private insurance.5%). It total, the amount of CZK 22.9 billion was expanded making an increase of 2.5%, y-o-y. The most important y-o-y growth was recorded for household expenditures (by 9.7%). Households spent more on medicines (CZK 14.9 billion), medical services (4.9%), medical aids (CZK 4.5 billion) and dental services (CZK 3.5 billion). The biggest heath expenditures were registered for persons at the age over 5 and women at the age group years due to motherhood. Broken by kind of care the biggest expenditures were recorded in medicines (23.1%), stay in hospital (23.%) and out-patient medical care (21.5%). Health expenditures and GDP ratio was 6.9% which was by.3 p.p. less compared to the previous year. From 2 the average yearly growth rate in health reached 7.1%. In international comparison, among developed countries the CR belongs to countries with lower health expenditures per head. In addition, the CR has the lowest private health expenditures when an absolute majority is covered from public expenditures. Further, the CR belongs to countries posting the highest expenditures on medicines.

9 Graph Health expenditures (in CZK billion) Graph Health expenditures by age groups and sex in 26 (in CZK million) men women health insurance companies public budgets private sector Source: ČZSO Effectiveness of health expenditures Graph shows expenditures on health per head (in USD in purchase power parity) and medium life-span at birth (in years). The above graph does not confirm the hypothesis that the bigger health expenditures the healthier life. Healthy life is obviously affected by geographic location, nutrition, sport activities, job, etc. Graph Expenditures on health care per head (in USD in PPS) and life expectancy at birth (in years of age) in health expenditures per head men women Luxembourg Norway Austria Island Belgium France Germany Denmark Netherlands Greece Ireland Sweden United Kingdom Italy Finland Spain Portugal Czech Republic Hungary Slovakia Poland Source: OECD, Eurostat