A Plan for Implementing Climate Change Science in Australia

Transcription

1 A Plan for Implementing Climate Change Science in Australia June 2012

2 Commonwealth of Australia (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) 2012 All images courtesy CSIRO. ISBN The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency asserts the right to be recognised as author of the original material in the following manner: This publication includes the views or recommendations of third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Australian Government, or indicate a commitment to a particular course of action. The material in this publication is provided for general information only, and on the understanding that the Australian Government is not providing professional advice. Before any action or decision is taken on the basis of this material the reader should obtain appropriate independent professional advice. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this publication, the Commonwealth provides no warranties and makes no representations that the information contained is correct, complete or reliable. The Commonwealth expressly disclaims liability for any loss, however caused and whether due to negligence or otherwise, arising directly or indirectly from the use or reliance on information contained in the publication by any person.

3 Contents Executive Summary 6 Section 1 - Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change: Science Priorities 8 National benefits from climate change science 9 Key policy questions and science deliverables 9 National benefits for mitigation policy 10 Mitigation science deliverables 12 National benefits for adaptation policy 14 Adaptation science deliverables 15 National benefits for shaping a global solution 20 Global solution science deliverables 21 Section 2 - Delivering Climate Change Information 24 A vision for a climate change information service 25 Delivery of climate change information 25 Section 3 - A Collaborative Approach to Climate Change Science in Australia 26 Australia s research community collaboration achievements 27 Cross cutting capabilities 28 Governance 29

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5 Glossary 2011 Research Infrastructure Roadmap Strategic Roadmap for Australian Research Infrastructure AAD - Australian Antarctic Division AASSP - Australian Antarctic Science Strategic Plan ACCESS - Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator ACCSP - Australian Climate Change Science Program ACE CRC - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre ANSTO - Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation ARC - Australian Research Council The Bureau - The Bureau of Meteorology CAWCR - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research CGBAPS - Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station COAG - Council of Australian Governments CoE CSS - Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science CO 2 - Carbon dioxide CRC - Cooperative Research Centre CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation DCCEE - Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency DIISRTE - Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education DSEWPaC - Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities EIF Education Investment Fund The Framework - Australian Climate Change Science: A National Framework GA - Geoscience Australia HLCG - High Level Coordination Group IAM - Integrated Assessment Modelling IMOS - Integrated Marine Observing System NCRIS - National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy The Plan - A Plan for Implementing Climate Change Science in Australia SAG - Science Advisory Group TERN - Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network 5

6 Executive Summary 6 6

7 Australian climate change policy is underpinned by climate science. Our climate scientists are at the forefront of global efforts to understand the science behind climate change. Due to our geography we have a unique interest in and responsibility for the carriage of climate change science in the Southern Hemisphere. This is an aspect in which we stand apart from most other developed nations whose principal focus is the Northern Hemisphere. Australian Climate Change Science: A National Framework (the Framework) articulated the climate science challenges to be addressed in supporting Australia s climate change policy as well as the capabilities required to deliver this science. The Framework further recommended the establishment of the High Level Coordination Group (HLCG), drawn from the scientific community and relevant government agencies, to develop and oversee the planning required to execute the Framework. This document (referred to as the Plan) outlines the work of the HLCG to set out the next level of detail required for implementing the Framework. This Plan is not an implementation plan in the traditional sense of program delivery because it is recognised that on-the-ground implementation remains properly the domain of the agencies that are accountable for delivering the science itself. Instead, the Plan aims to provide both funding and research agencies with a single articulation of science priorities to guide investment decisions and ensure that the maximum national benefit is delivered to the Australian community. The national benefits from investment in climate change science are categorised in terms of three overarching policy areas: 1. informing mitigation policy 2. informing adaptation policy, and 3. helping shape a global solution to climate change. climate change information service and flags a pathway for achievable early steps towards its delivery. In line with the authority of the Framework, the Plan focuses on delivering fundamental climate change science that provides essential systems knowledge. The Plan seeks to coordinate science delivered through the Australian Climate Change Science Program (ACCSP) and allied activities such as the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and our national Antarctic Science Program currently delivered primarily through the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. The Plan aims to set out a comprehensive program for climate change science that is scientifically rigorous. It is recognised that the degree to which the science deliverables can be achieved in practice will be determined by the resources available from Commonwealth and State Government funding and the co-investment this attracts from research agencies. Not all the science deliverables identified in the Plan can be achieved within the current funding allocated to the ACCSP and allied programs. Funding pressures on cross cutting capabilities, such as infrastructure, may also limit the ability of the community to achieve the science deliverables. The Plan establishes a governance model that will allow funding and research agencies to work together to identify the science that can be delivered and ensure this is done in the most effective and efficient way. The governance arrangements will improve prioritisation, integration, coordination and collaboration, and support the delivery of world-class climate change science. The Plan sets out a series of key policy questions that when answered will deliver national benefit. These key policy questions help to frame a series of science deliverables. The science deliverables provide a guide for the community to align their activity with a coordinated effort that delivers national benefit. National benefit can only be fully realised when accessible climate information is delivered to the broader community. In recognition of this, the Plan articulates an ambitious vision for a national 7

8 8 Section 1 - Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change: Science Priorities

9 The climate change science outlined in the Plan is principally concerned with understanding the climate system and Australia s regional climate. Australian Climate Change Science: A National Framework (the Framework) defines the scope of the science addressed in the Plan; namely fundamental climate system science that underpins decisions on mitigation, adaptation and shaping a global solution. It does not seek to carry out applied science in relation to mitigation, impacts or adaptation as this is delivered through other initiatives such as the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Climate Adaptation Flagship and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. National benefits from climate change science Climate change science is required to understand the size of the mitigation challenge, to set appropriate reduction targets for emissions of greenhouse gases, and to independently monitor our progress towards achieving them. It delivers key information needed to manage carbon in the landscape. It provides the information needed to understand and plan for climate change impacts, thereby increasing community resilience and reducing the cost to society. It also strengthens our international negotiating position and helps to shape a global solution. The national benefits from investment in climate change science fall into three overarching policy areas: 1. informing mitigation policy 2. informing adaptation policy, and 3. helping shape a global solution to climate change. Each of these national benefits is explored in more detail throughout this section. A strong capability in climate change science brings an important national benefit in itself. The complex nature of our climate and the factors that influence it mean that there are likely to be unforseen challenges in the future. Having a highly skilled, multi-disciplinary community that understands the climate system will ensure we are able to respond to those challenges. Key policy questions and science deliverables The government officials and scientists of the High Level Coordination Group (HLCG) developed a series of key policy questions that when answered will deliver an identified national benefit to Australia. These key policy questions help to frame a series of science deliverables. The science deliverables are the core research that we must undertake in order to answer the key policy questions. Articulating the science deliverables allows the research community to align its activities with a nationally coordinated effort focused on ensuring the most effective and efficient delivery of national benefits. Throughout the following section the key policy questions, and the national benefits that will be delivered by answering them are highlighted. The science deliverables under each key policy question are then articulated. While all science deliverables identified in the Plan deliver national benefits and are considered priorities, it is recognised that current funding allocations through the Australian Climate Change Science Program (ACCSP) and allied programs are not sufficient to achieve the full complement of deliverables. While the Plan aims to be as comprehensive as possible in setting out a complete program for climate change science it recognises that history demonstrates many examples of curiosity-driven research that have ultimately brought major applications and benefits. While this document articulates research that will answer the key policy questions, it also recognises that curiosity-driven research is an important component of generating new ideas and understanding. Although the individual science deliverables have been aligned to a single key policy question, it is recognised that a number of the deliverables are important across multiple questions and across the three key national benefits of informing mitigation and adaptation policy, and helping shape a global solution. The alignment takes a best-fit approach and is not intended to suggest that an individual science deliverable does not have multiple benefits. These science deliverables cannot be achieved in isolation. Each science deliverable is, to varying degrees, co-dependent on cross-cutting capabilities that support research infrastructure, 9

10 people and international collaborations. For example, tracking of atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean variables is dependent on research infrastructure such as Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (CGBAPS), Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) and Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN). Access to satellite data is critical to extending our observational capability and providing input to climate models. Research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean is currently supported by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) which will need to transition from a Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) in June 2014 and ageing infrastructure including Antarctic bases and the Aurora Australis ice-breaker. Process studies, model development and projections are dependent on investment in high performance computing, Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), and the support of technical experts. These efforts are further dependent upon international programs such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Furthermore, there are co-dependencies between the science deliverables as they provide a chain of research that cannot always be delivered in isolation. For example, mitigation deliverable Understanding of Australia s carbon budget, the processes that affect it and how it will change with climate change, cannot be delivered without also investing in deliverables 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4. Case studies throughout the following sections highlight the interdependencies of the science deliverables with cross-cutting capabilities and identify areas where funding pressures may limit the ability to achieve the science deliverables. global carbon cycle and understanding its interaction with the climate system will be a critical input to setting appropriate greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for Australia and better understanding the effort required to achieve these targets. Monitoring atmospheric greenhouse gas levels will deliver us independent assessments against which to assess progress on meeting emission reduction targets. Understanding the future stability of our land and ocean sinks will help address uncertainty in climate change projections. Storing carbon in the Australian landscape is a key element of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. The Carbon Farming Initiative will reward land managers for actions that increase carbon storage in soils and vegetation. Understanding, quantifying and projecting changes to Australian terrestrial carbon budgets will allow us to develop more effective sequestration methods, evaluate sequestration options, implement effective actions and monitor progress. To deliver these national benefit three key policy questions must be addressed: 1. How much greenhouse gas are we emitting and what will the consequences be? 2. What is the role of natural land and ocean sinks, in sequestering emissions and what will happen to these processes in the future? 3. How can we use our natural land sinks and other natural processes to mitigate Australian emissions? National benefits for mitigation policy Mitigation policy requires information to justify, set and track Australian and global greenhouse gas emissions targets and to assess and manage carbon sequestration in the landscape and oceans. Understanding what dangerous climate change means for Australia will enable us to identify our national interests in the global mitigation effort, and to set our national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Developing more accurate projections of the future climate through tracking the 10

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12 Mitigation science deliverables Policy question Science deliverable Who is best placed to deliver? 1. How much greenhouse gas are we emitting and what will the consequences be? 1.1 Accurate tracking of atmospheric greenhouse gas changes and regional carbon budgets, via monitoring and modelling, including inverse modelling. 1.2 Atmospheric observations over enhanced spatial and temporal scales, focused on gaps in our understanding such as tropical atmospheres, whole column measurements, clouds and aerosols. 1.3 Increased spatial and temporal coverage of carbon flux observations. CSIRO, the Bureau CSIRO, the Bureau CSIRO and universities 2. What is the role of natural land and ocean sinks, in sequestering emissions and what will happen to these processes in the future? 3. How can we use our natural land sinks and other natural processes to mitigate Australian emissions? 2.1 Coupling of atmospheric, terrestrial and marine carbon budgets in ACCESS. 2.2 Carbon cycle observations that track the uptake and release of greenhouse gases by atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic sinks, and quantify and attribute any observed changes in uptake. 2.3 Process studies of the influence of climate change on carbon sources and sinks. 2.4 Projections of atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. 2.5 Understanding of Australia s carbon budget, the processes that affect it and how it will change with climate change. 3.1 Assessments of the stability of Australia s landbased carbon sinks and the influence of climate and land management. 3.2 Determine the CO 2 fertilisation effect on Australian vegetation. 3.3 Methods for estimating soil carbon and evaluation of sequestration options. 3.4 Incorporate Australian terrestrial processes in ACCESS. 3.5 Modelling and monitoring of geosequestration underground and in the oceans. CSIRO and the Bureau CSIRO, the Bureau, ACE CRC and universities CSIRO, the Bureau, ACE CRC and universities CSIRO, the Bureau CSIRO and universities CSIRO and universities CSIRO and universities CSIRO and universities CSIRO, the Bureau CSIRO, GA and universities 12

13 CASE STUDY: TERN TERN provides the observational and data infrastructure needed for a national capability in observing land air exchanges, located in the key ecosystems and climate regions of Australia. OzFlux, a key TERN facility, is part of a global flux network that is essential to our national capacity to monitor Australian water and carbon budgets. There are some important gaps in TERN s ability, that if addressed would help better enable the science deliverables to be achieved. These gaps include: the resources to maintain, operate, process and use the data from the TERN facilities must be co-invested by other research programs or agencies since TERN funding is for research infrastructure and not people. there is no clear pathway to consider whether, and if so how, to maintain the OzFlux facility as an operational facility into the long-term, and some regions and ecosystems are not adequately sampled or analysed in the current OzFlux network. TERN has filled a critical gap but Australia still lacks a national capability in monitoring smoke and dust aerosols, tropospheric ozone, biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (which are generated by industry), biomass burning and climate variability over Australia. This is why the addition of atmospheric composition observations is a welcome, and necessary, addition to the 2011 Strategic Roadmap for Australian Research Infrastructure (2011 Research Infrastructure Roadmap). Funding for TERN through Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIISRTE) concludes in mid The scope of TERN should be rebalanced to ensure the needs of the climate change community are adequately met. This is an important opportunity as it would build on existing infrastructure and could use existing data acquisition and processing systems thus reducing the overhead cost of developing a separate observation network. 13

14 National benefits for adaptation policy Adaptation policy requires climate change science to identify the likely impacts of climate change and enable the adaptation community to develop strategies and make decisions that will prepare Australia for, and respond to, identified risks and opportunities. Improved observation, process understanding and modelling of the Southern Hemisphere climate system will deliver more robust information on the timing, extent and nature of likely changes to temperature, rainfall, water availability, sea level and extreme climate events. Determining how important climatic variables will change, quantifying their natural variability on multi-decadal or longer timescales, and improving confidence in climate projections will allow for better risk management, reduce the cost of managing the impacts of climate change, and enable us to exploit potential opportunities. Detecting and attributing current changes in the climate will allow us to guide community and government decision making for adaption. Understanding the sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate change will help us quantify likely impacts on communities (including coastal communities where the majority of Australians live), biodiversity, water resources, primary production and major infrastructure. Climate change impacts, such as sea level rise, will continue well into the next century and beyond. Adaptation planning must understand the longer time scale impacts and if there are critical thresholds for Australian climate. To deliver these national benefits five key policy questions must be addressed: 1. How has the climate changed in the past and what can this tell us about the future? 2. What changes in the climate are we observing today and can we attribute them to human influences? 3. What changes in climate and extreme weather events are likely on timescales of years to decades to a century? 4. How can we best prepare for low-likelihood, but high impact consequences of climate change? 5. How can we ensure that climate change adaptation is supported by the best available information? Extreme climate events including tropical cyclones, flooding, bushfires and drought have had severe impacts on our economy, community and ecosystems over recent years. These events are closely linked to known drivers of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with possible (but as yet unquantified) contributions from climate change. 14 Understanding how these global drivers have previously behaved, are behaving today, and how they will change in the future, as well as how they are influenced by climate change, will help us forecast and plan for future extreme climate events with greater confidence. Ensuring our climate models capture these processes will underpin our capacity to predict changes with greater confidence and better understand uncertainties about future climate.

15 Adaptation science deliverables Policy question Science deliverable Who is best placed to deliver? 1. How has the climate changed in the past and what can this tell us 1.1 Palaeo records for Australia that help us understand past changes in the climate and contribute to the global palaeo record. Universities, CSIRO, ACE CRC, ANSTO and AAD about the future? 1.2 Ice-core studies that track past climate. AAD, ACE CRC, universities and CSIRO 1.3 Processes studies of past changes that build our understanding of the teleconnections in the climate system, and aid in model parameterisation. AAD, CSIRO, ACE CRC, the Bureau and universities 15

16 Policy question Science deliverable Who is best placed to deliver? 2. What changes in the climate are we observing today and can we attribute them to human influences? 2.1 Robust observational records of current climate Observations and monitoring of the Antarctic ice sheet, oceans and marine ice in the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic atmospheric processes, and Antarctic palaeoclimate Tracking ocean heat content, carbon, ocean mixing, salinity, acidification and sea level Atmospheric changes - temperature, greenhouse gases, aerosols, rainfall, ozone and other climate variables Tracking changes in terrestrial carbon, water and heat exchanges. AAD, CSIRO, ACE CRC, the Bureau and IMOS IMOS, CSIRO, the Bureau, ACE CRC Universities, AAD, CSIRO, ACE CRC and the Bureau TERN, CSIRO and universities 2.2 Undertake process studies to improve understanding and representation of the key processes influencing Australian climate and the impact of climate change upon these processes Studies of ocean processes from the tropics to Antarctica Climate change feedbacks including clouds, aerosols, solar changes, ozone changes and ocean mixing and subduction Improve understanding of the influence of the Southern Annular Mode, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Walker circulation and the Hadley circulation on rainfall patterns and water availability in Australia Process studies of terrestrial changes including carbon, water and heat Understanding of decadal variability and its relationship to climate change 2.3 Assess trends in climate variables and their extremes and ascertain the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the trends ( detection and attribution of climate change). For example: Temperature Rainfall Monsoon behaviour Tropical cyclones Atmospheric circulation changes East Coast Lows The Bureau, CSIRO, universities and ACE CRC The Bureau, CSIRO CSIRO, the Bureau, CoE CSS and universities The Bureau, CSIRO The Bureau, CSIRO and Universities The Bureau, CSIRO 16

17 CASE STUDY: IMOS IMOS is designed to be an integrated, national infrastructure system that forms a vital component of the Global Ocean Observing System. IMOS has deployed a range of observing equipment in the oceans around Australia, with data freely available. Our investment allows us to ensure that key gaps in the Southern Ocean and tropics, and areas of national importance such as our coastal shelves, are monitored. IMOS was established in 2007 under the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS) with initial funding of $50m and coinvestment of $44m from partners. IMOS has been extended to mid-2013 with an additional $52m through the Super Science Initiative from the Education Investment Fund (EIF) in 2009 and further co-investment of $66m from partners. IMOS is highly leveraged on agency research funds (The Bureau of Meteorology (The Bureau), CSIRO, Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), ACE CRC, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Geoscience Australia (GA), ACCSP, Tasmanian State Government and the universities) because EIF funding supports the development of the infrastructure, but not the people to make use of it. IMOS has been a successful vehicle for the development and piloting of the sustained climate observing system but now it is important for some elements of this system to be transitioned to a more sustained and secure funding model. Gaps may emerge in the critical data streams provided by IMOS without this transition. The development of the National Plan for Environmental Information by the Bureau should clarify these needs

18 Policy question Science deliverable Who is best placed to deliver? 3. What changes in climate and extreme weather events are likely on timescales of years to decades to a century? 3.1 Deliver a national capability in Earth and climate system simulation via ACCESS and the best international climate models. Improve representation of atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric, terrestrial and atmospheric processes in ACCESS with a focus on improved simulation of Southern Hemisphere climate drivers. 3.2 Development of seamless climate prediction, from seasonal to long-term. The Bureau, CSIRO, AAD CSIRO, the Bureau 3.3 Development of a decadal prediction system. CSIRO, the Bureau 3.4 Regional projections of future climates, including rainfall, for Australia, at appropriate spatial and temporal scales that clearly communicate uncertainties. 3.5 Investigate how the frequency and intensity of extreme events may change in the future. 3.6 Robust projections of future global & regional sea level rise under different emission scenarios. The Bureau, CSIRO CSIRO, the Bureau CSIRO, ACE CRC 4. How can we best prepare for low likelihood but high impact consequences of climate change? 5. How can we ensure that climate change adaptation is supported by the best available information? 4.1 Investigate the potential for climate feedbacks to accelerate climate change. 4.2 Understand the potential to cross tipping points in the climate system. 5.1 Development of Climate Futures approach as a versatile, clear communication product. 5.2 Provision of a climate change information service for Australia including the provision of technical advice and support to stakeholders. 5.3 Link ACCESS to IAM to dynamically couple human systems (economic and social models) to climate models. CSIRO, the Bureau CSIRO, the Bureau, ACE CRC and universities CSIRO, the Bureau The Bureau and CSIRO CSIRO, the Bureau 18

19 CASE STUDY: ACCESS ACCESS is our national climate model. In 2005, when the initiative began, it was envisaged that ACCESS would eventually underpin the generation of a detailed understanding of what may happen to weather, climate, the environment and the social and economic fabric of society over a specific region in periods of months, years, decades and centuries. The ACCESS initiative has already achieved a number of significant milestones including providing our daily weather forecasts and our national climate model runs for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Despite these sound achievements, significant ongoing investment is required to allow ACCESS to continue to provide us with a competitive information edge, serving the needs of the nation. An ACCESS Blueprint is currently being developed to establish the pathway for ACCESS development and frame decision points around if and how Australia pursues new challenges, such as decadal prediction, or implements seasonal forecasting and downscaling schemes in ACCESS. Delivering the objectives of the Blueprint will require the community to work together to develop the physical infrastructure of ACCESS - high performance computing, model code, data storage facilities, and coupling to integrated assessment models. This will require work across institutions and disciplines, the development of people with new skills and engagement with the international community. 19

20 National benefits for shaping a global solution Shaping a global solution requires a strong and credible science base to strengthen our international negotiating position. 2. How can Australia contribute to shaping a global solution and influence international negotiations? 3. Is the 2 C warming limit sufficient and what are the risks of going beyond the 2 C target? 4. What is the impact (in both benefit and cost) of geo-engineering options? Investment in Australian climate change science will help shape a global solution to climate change. It will deliver a more definitive understanding of the global effort needed to limit warming to 2 C and the risks associated with warming above this level. Accurately tracking emissions will help develop appropriate global climate policies, determine how mitigation can be shared globally and monitor the effectiveness of policies. Australia plays a vital role in the international scientific effort, providing the primary source of Southern Hemisphere-focused research and climate observations. This investment enables Australia to leverage heavily off international programs and gain access to information many times the value of our contribution. Understanding Southern Hemisphere processes and contributing this knowledge to the international effort will help shape a global solution while simultaneously enhancing Australia s reputation and influence in international forums addressing science and policy. Determining the costs and benefits of geo-engineering options will help inform international negotiations. Investment in science can also contribute to knowledge transfer to developing nations and help inform international adaptation and mitigation programs. Building public confidence in the scientific basis for action on climate change will be enhanced by access to information generated by world class monitoring and research programs and by Australian scientists participating in and contributing to this world class research. To deliver these national benefit four key policy questions must be addressed: 1. How are we tracking to limit warming to specific targets (such as the 2 C target) and what level of emissions reduction is needed to meet targets? 20

21 Global solution science deliverables Policy question Science deliverable Who is best placed to deliver? 1. How are we tracking to limit warming to specific targets (such as the 2 C target) and what level of emissions reduction is needed to meet targets? 1.1 Participate in global monitoring programs to track our greenhouse gas emissions. 1.2 Reduce uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate to atmospheric CO 22 through understanding critical atmospheric processes and feedbacks. 1.3 Develop robust estimates of changes to global temperature under different emission scenarios. The Bureau and CSIRO The Bureau and CSIRO The Bureau, CSIRO CASE STUDY: SATELLITE DATA Observing the climate is an international endeavour. Australia is the strongest Southern Hemisphere partner in this global enterprise, playing a key role in most major in situ observing programs across the terrestrial, atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric domains. In contrast Australia is a minor contributor to, but major beneficiary of, satellite-based observations. Australian in situ observing networks are typically embedded in global networks that are coordinated by international agencies and programs such as the World Meteorological Organization. Australia s in situ networks are well placed to make a significant contribution to the calibration and validation of satellite data sets. For example, our super-site, CGBAPS, provides precise carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) measurements that could be used for ground-truthing satellite data from the Greenhouse Gas Observing Satellite, Advanced Infra-Red Sounder and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (to be relaunched in 2013). Selective collaborative investment in developing aspects of space hardware further helps ensure a role in spacebased programs and ongoing access to data. Satellite data provides crucial input for numerical weather prediction models and are essential for environmental applications ranging from the monitoring of vegetation cover through to mapping ocean temperature and tracking sea level. Resources are required for the reception and use of satellite data. The scale of this activity is potentially large: the volume of satellite data being sampled has increased by five orders of magnitude over the past five years and this growth will continue. Significant people and computing resources are required to make optimum use of these data. There are substantial activities within the Bureau, CSIRO and the universities related to the analysis of satellite data. We can maximise the benefits from these links through better oversight and alignment of these activities and work collaboratively to target any future investments. Participation in international programs is essential for Australia to benefit from global investment. 21

22 Policy question Science deliverable Who is best placed to deliver? 2. How can Australia contribute to shaping a global solution and influence international negotiations? 2.1 Enhance Australia s influence in global negotiations through contributing to, and leveraging off, the global effort to understand Southern Hemisphere processes, including Antarctic and Southern Ocean processes, Australian terrestrial processes and developing ACCESS. The Bureau, CSIRO, ACE CRC and universities 2.2 Participate in collaborative international research. The Bureau, CSIRO, ACE CRC, AAD and universities 2.3 Inform global adaptation programs through the transfer of knowledge to less developed countries on improved understanding of climate variability and the likely effects of climate change, including on sea levels. The Bureau, CSIRO 3. Is the 2 C warming limit sufficient and what are the implications of going beyond the 2 C target? 4. What is the impact (both benefits and costs) of geoengineering options? 3.1 Determine the likely impacts on Australia of a 2 C temperature rise and understand what dangerous climate change means for Australia at a regional scale to inform global negotiations. 3.2 Develop a more definitive understanding of how climate feedbacks may impact on meeting the 2 C global challenge. 3.3 Undertake frontiers science to understand the potential to cross tipping points in the climate and the implications of doing so. 4.1 Monitor and model the global and regional impacts of geoengineering that may be proposed nationally and internationally. The Bureau, AAD, CSIRO and universities The Bureau, AAD, CSIRO and universities The Bureau, CSIRO The Bureau, CSIRO, GA 22

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24 24 Section 2 - Delivering Climate Change Information

25 A vision for a climate change information service Provision of climate change information and guidance on its use to end users is a critical national priority. We currently lack an efficient and effective national capability to make information and data available in ways best suited to the community. Today the research community issues national periodic broad-scale climate change projections that include a range of climatic variables, such as temperature and rainfall. In recent years the number of requests for more specific information from the broader research community, industry, governments and the general public has risen dramatically. These requests vary significantly, reflecting the different needs of end users. For example, local councils may require simple information regarding likely climate change risks in their regions. Some users will require more detailed high resolution downscaled climate change information to support significant development or planning decisions. A subset of users will also require access to major data sets to use in detailed impact assessment work. A climate change information service would ensure that maximum national benefit is gained from our investment in fundamental climate change science. The service would compile and disseminate observations, research results, model data and projections under different climate change scenarios. It would provide scientists with a national framework for reporting observational data, climate process studies, model runs and methodologies. In turn researchers would have the ability to readily access this broad ranging, consistently reported data. This would empower and support adaptation and mitigation action and underpin future research. A national climate change information service would be based around a website with close links to the Bureau and CSIRO. The website would provide the community with a one stop shop for climate change information. This information could be presented in a variety of forms, including visualisations, graphs and text, in different layers of complexity. Consultation with end users would ensure that the service is designed to meet their needs. The delivery of climate change information should be considered within the broader context of delivering climate and environmental information such as our daily weather, historical climate and water information for which the Bureau is responsible. This vision for the delivery of a climate change information service is ambitious. The Plan establishes the need for, and a vision of, a climate change information service in Australia, and sets out the initial steps that can be taken to realise this vision. However, it is recognised that this vision cannot be achieved within the current level of funding. Delivery of climate change information As a first step, the Science Advisory Group (SAG) will prepare a blueprint that details the timelines, resources and infrastructure that will be required to deliver a national climate change information service. A priority for end users is the provision of the next generation of climate change projections for Australia, due in 2013/14. State and territory governments are currently undertaking work to downscale climate change projections to inform regional and local decision making. This approach is resulting in a lack of consistency and some duplication of effort. Delivery of a climate change information service must take into account the work currently being undertaken and seek to streamline this effort. This effort also provides the opportunity to deliver appropriately downscaled projections information with state and territory governments in a consistently applied national framework. Efforts should be made to leverage investment in this process from each jurisdiction. Delivering a new national service of this scale is a significant endeavour that will require new resources and coordination of activities across the ACCSP, the Bureau, the ACCESS development community, the CSIRO Adaptation Flagship and Australian National University s National Computational Infrastructure. The information system would require human resources to build and maintain (software engineers, data mining and visualisation programmers) and policy makers would need to work with scientists to provide guidance on how the information will be incorporated into risk assessments. Part of this engagement will include training for the extraction, analysis, and use of climate information. This effort is scalable and can be delivered in a staged process. Key general public information, such as the delivery of Climate Futures for Australia, could be delivered as an initial step.

26 26 Section 3 - A Collaborative Approach to Climate Change Science in Australia

27 Climate change science is inherently a multidisciplinary subject on which collaboration is essential. The science deliverables illustrate how different elements of research are delivered by a number of agencies. A collaborative approach will be essential to realising the science deliverables and achieving the greatest national benefit. However it is recognised that available resources will influence the scientific community s capacity to achieve the science deliverables. This section considers: Australia s research community collaboration achievements, and cross cutting capabilities; infrastructure, people and international collaborations. Australia s research community collaboration achievements The Australian climate change science community has made considerable progress in recent years towards putting in place the right institutional arrangements to help overcome barriers to collaboration and build critical mass in climate change science capability. Initially this has been through the ACCSP, a 23 year partnership between CSIRO, the Bureau and the (current) Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE). The ACCSP provides Australia s core climate change research and has a current annual budget of $7.8m. Collaboration has continued in the last decade with the merger of CSIRO s Marine and Atmospheric Divisions in ACCESS, a national approach to weather prediction and climate modelling involving CSIRO, the Bureau, DCCEE and many universities was also formulated in ACCESS provided a catalyst for the formation in 2007 of Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), a joint research operation bringing together the climate and weather research capabilities of the Bureau and CSIRO to provide critical mass in Earth System Science. CAWCR is a partnership between the Bureau And CSIRO s Marine and Atmospheric Research Division resulting in over 300 CSIRO and Bureau staff operating in integrated programs at a number of locations, principally at Aspendale, Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra. Support for Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate research has been provided by the AAD through the Australian Antarctic Science Strategic Plan (AASSP) (2011/ /21). The primary method for the delivery of climate science in the AASSP has been through the ACE CRC which receives around $4m annually from the CRC program. ACE CRC was first funded in 1991 and focused purely on Antarctic science. Over time the collaboration and research agenda has developed in response to the rapidly growing understanding of the role of the Antarctic in the global climate system and the changes that are being observed there. The ACE CRC has evolved to become a climate change research centre focused on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. This CRC will reach its maximum permissible CRC funding duration in June 2014 leaving a gap in our ability to address the key science challenges and information needs from the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Activities in Antarctica are reliant on the infrastructure (air, sea and ice transport as well as Antarctic bases) and operational support that the AAD provides to implement the AASSP. The Australian Research Council (ARC) supports a range of climate change research activities, including a number of research fellows. Resources flowing into climate change science increased in 2011 with the establishment of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CoE CSS). The CoE CSS receives funding of around $3m per year (until mid 2018) and brings together the key universities that have significant expertise in climate science (University of New South Wales, University of Tasmania, the Australian National University, Monash University and Melbourne University). The Bureau and CSIRO, through their CAWCR partnership, are key collaborators with the CoE CSS. Additional support for climate change science, among a broader Earth systems science perspective, has been provided by DIISRTE through the NCRIS. This resulted in major investment in research infrastructure for marine observation systems (IMOS) and complementary terrestrial environmental observation systems (TERN). The $387.7m Marine and Climate Super Science Initiative, announced in 2009, provided additional support for IMOS and TERN (funded until June 2013), support for a new high performance computing centre and funds for a new bluewater research vessel The Investigator. In addition the construction of a new building for the University of Tasmania Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies in Hobart has been funded through a competitive round of the EIF. 27

28 Regional based programs have also resulted in significant collaborations that have enhanced Australia s climate change science capacity. Key examples include: the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative, the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative, and the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program. Cross cutting capabilities The delivery of climate change science relies on the provision of research infrastructure, an appropriately sized and skilled research workforce and international research collaboration. While the ACCSP does not directly fund these cross-cutting capabilities they are essential to the successful delivery of ACCSP science. Infrastructure DIISRTE is responsible for developing a shared vision of the national research infrastructure needed to address national and global challenges. To date it has invested in a series of projects that provide support for observational infrastructure for our natural, managed and urban environments all of which impact on the climate and carbon cycle. Over the last seven years, the Government has supported national, collaborative research infrastructure through the NCRIS and the Super Science Initiative. These programs have resulted in investment in vital research infrastructure for climate change science such as high performance computing, observational infrastructure and underpinning eresearch infrastructure. These investments have been complemented by competitive funding rounds through the EIF. Funding under NCRIS concluded on 30 June 2011 and funding under the Super Science Initiative is due to end in June DIISRTE released the 2011 Research Infrastructure Roadmap in September 2011, after extensive consultation with researchers and other stakeholders. The 2011 Research Infrastructure Roadmap recognises the need for an integrated approach to addressing the climate and carbon cycle. Specific requirements identified of relevance to climate science include, but are not limited to: extended coverage of ocean observations to fill gaps in areas such as the deep ocean, the coastal oceans, the seabed, the under sea- ice environment, the Antarctic cryosphere and the oceanic regions surrounding Australia, extension of a terrestrial monitoring network to include baseline sites and super sites, observing systems to monitor soil conditions including soil carbon, an atmospheric composition observing network that would combine in situ and remote sensing infrastructure, including deployment on islands or ships, and greater coverage and additional geophysical data across large areas of Australia. It is not yet clear how the infrastructure identified in the 2011 Research Infrastructure Roadmap will be delivered. The HLCG will have a role in supporting the Government s response to this need. The infrastructure requirements identified in the 2011 Research Infrastructure Roadmap are critical to achieving the science deliverables identified in this Plan. The scientific community s ability to meet many of the science deliverables will be dependent on the provision of this infrastructure. Options for the renewal of infrastructure to support Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate research are currently being scoped by government. Resultant decisions will define the future capability to support research in this region. People The Government s vision for Australia s research workforce articulated in the 2011 Research skills for an Innovative Future is of a strong and productive research workforce, comprising the scale, breadth and depth of skills required to support innovation, educate the next generation of Australian scientists, and drive productivity improvements across the economy. The most important resource for science is people. The current level of effort devoted to climate change science in Australia is significantly below what is required to address the nation s priority climate science needs. There is a pressing need for more early and mid-career researchers to augment current capacity and succession planning for Australia s senior science leaders. There is also a critical shortage in the numbers of specialised technical staff, for example data management and interpretation personnel and software engineers, who underpin climate science research efforts. 28