The Impact of 3G & 4G Wireless Technology On Carriers' Network Development Strategies

Transcription

1 Brochure More information from The Impact of 3G & 4G Wireless Technology On Carriers' Network Development Strategies Description: The evolution of 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile telecommunications technologies has been researched and written about ad infinitum. More recently, the topic of WiMAX, a particular 4G technology which promises to deliver 70 Mb/s data speeds over a 50 km radius, has been the focus of much attention and hype. Many telecom analysts had come to the conclusion that 4G was just a distraction from making 3G work until the IEEE approved the e standard for mobile WiMAX in December Subsequently, the WiMAX Forum announced the first certified fixed WiMAX (802.16d or ) equipment in January With this new found credibility, manufacturers and network operators are looking again at the benefits promised by 4G technologies and they are starting to invest serious time and effort in developing fixed and mobile products which should be commercialized within the next three years. The report addresses the following key issues: - What are the dynamics between 3G & 4G - competing or complimentary? - What are the standards and regulatory issues in 4G? - Which manufacturers are leading 4G development? - How are carriers approaching the 4G issue at a strategic level? - What would be the impact of 4G on networks, in terms of bandwidth requirements, under different penetration scenarios? Thus, the overall purpose of this report is to give the reader some fresh perspectives on the issue of 4G by looking at this technology, not as an isolated phenomenon, but as part of an ongoing technological evolution and to provide some ground-breaking analysis in terms of average user bandwidth demand, as well as the usual measurements of subscribers, penetration rates, installations, and equipment sales. The Impact of 3G & 4G Wireless Technology on Carriers' Network Development Strategies, concludes that WiMAX will have a significant role to play in the evolution of mobile networks. A survey of manufacturers and network operators indicates that they are making plans to incorporate 4G technology as a value-adding adjunct to existing mobile infrastructure and services. "WiMAX has received a lot of negative publicity recently" says Julian Rawle, Managing Partner, "but when you look beyond the hype and anti-hype, there is a viable business case for the fixed standard and maybe also for the mobile standard." Instead of characterizing the evolution of 3G and 4G mobile technologies as a battle to the death between species, the report highlights the potential for complementarity between the various technologies which reside under the 3G and 4G "umbrellas". Pioneer's Managing Partner, Howard Kidorf, commented "In modeling scenarios for 4G development, we found that accelerated growth in demand for 4G stimulates interest in broadband wireless applications which also has a beneficial impact on demand for 3G." Nevertheless, Pioneer acknowledges that the future of 4G technology is by no means certain. More investment in R&D is required, the issue of global spectrum harmonization is unresolved, and equipment certification has only recently begun. Pioneer's report segments the potential WiMAX market into "fixed wireless backhaul" and "mobile". It provides forecasts to 2010 of subscriber numbers, penetration rates, and base station installations across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific for 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile technologies. The value of WiMAX equipment in the backhaul market is forecast and an innovative approach is used to forecast mobile demand in terms of bandwidth usage. The conclusion from these forecasts is that WiMAX will establish market share over the next few years at a significant growth rate but will not become the dominant mobile technology any time soon. This report should be of interest to:

2 - Fixed network operators - Wireless network operators - Wireless Internet Service Providers - Equipment suppliers - Component suppliers - Venture Capital funds Report Scope & Structure Mobile telecom technologies covered in this report: GSM; GPRS; EDGE; HSCSD; UMTS / WCDMA; CDMA EV- DO; HSDPA; FLASH-OFDM; WiMAX; Wi-Fi; FLO Geographic regions covered in this report are: North America; Europe; Asia Pacific - Chapter 1 Executive Summary provides a synopsis of the key data points, analysis, and conclusions from all sections of the report. - Chapter 2 Introduction describes the purpose and scope of the report and provides a top-level explanation of the methodologies used. - Chapter 3 - Evolution of Mobile Technologies describes how mobile telecom technologies have evolved and then looks in detail at the attributes of 3G and 4G wireless technologies. This information is then used to provide a comparative analysis of both technical capabilities and cost. - Chapter 4 - Market Dynamics looks at existing 3G network deployments, assesses 3G's current market share, and describes the challenges facing 3G in becoming the mainstream mobile technology of choice. This chapter then goes on to look at the status of 4G wireless technology development including applications in backhaul and access. Finally, the prospects for future deployment of 3G and 4G wireless technologies are considered. - Chapter 5 - Major 4G Initiatives provides detail on the manufacturers and service providers which are leading the development of 4G technologies, highlighting key initiatives, global and regional strategic trends, and current developments. - Chapter 6 - Technology Penetration and Bandwidth Demand Analysis provides Pioneer's regional forecasts for fixed WiMAX in the mobile backhaul market, and scenario analysis of potential bandwidth demand for mobile WiMAX. - Chapter 7 Conclusions summarises key conclusions drawn from analysis in all preceding chapters. Contents: Chapter 1 Executive Summary Technological Comparison Comparative Technology Costs G Market Overview Lack of Demand Other Challenges G Market Overview Demand for High-Speed Multimedia Services Fixed-Mobile Convergence Spectrum Issues Standards & Certification Issues Technological Challenges Alternative Applications for 4G Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G Market Share Forecasts Manufacturer Strategies Network Operator Strategies Global Spectrum Harmonisation Forecasts Mobile Markets Demand for 2G, 3G, & 4G (Fixed & Mobile) Chapter 2 Introduction & Methodology Purpose of the Report Report Scope Technologies Covered Geographic Coverage Companies Mentioned in this Report Report Structure

3 - 2.3 Methodology Data Sources Analysis Presentation of Results Chapter 3 Technology Comparison Evolution of Mobile Technologies First Generation (1G) Mobile Technologies Second Generation (2G) Mobile Technologies Second Generation Enhanced (2.5G) Third Generation (3G) Fourth Generation (4G) G Wireless Technologies in Detail Standards Bodies Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) CDMA EV-DO - 3 4G Wireless Technologies in Detail Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) WiMAX WiBro Wi-Fi FLO Qualcomm Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies Technological Parameters Cost Comparison Chapter 4 Market Dynamics G Wireless Technology Deployment & Current Penetration UMTS HSDPA CDMA EV-DO Challenges Facing 3G Wireless Technology High Costs Uncertain Demand Firmly entrenched 2G networks Pressure from 4G / advanced networks Technological challenges Slow demand growth G Wireless Technology Development Status G Development Drivers G Development Challenges Standards Update WiMAX in Broadband Wireless Systems WiMAX in Fixed Broadband Wireless Access WiMAX in Wi-Fi Backhaul Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G Wireless Technologies Quantitative Methodology & Assumptions North America Europe Asia Pacific Chapter 5 Major 4G Initiatives Supply Side Developments Manufacturers' Initiatives Classification of WiMAX Equipment Manufacturers Significant Manufacturer-Led Initiatives Demand Side Developments Global Trends Complemetarity vs. Competitivity Different Applications in Different Markets Pre-Commercialisation Trials Current Developments WiMAX FLASH-OFDM & Qualcomm FLO

4 G/4G Strategic Trends in North America Mobile Operators Wireless Internet Service Providers Wireline Operators Strategic Drivers G/4G Strategic Trends in Europe Mobile Operators WISPs & Wireline Operators New Entrants Strategic Drivers G/4G Strategic Trends in Asia Pacific Regional Heterogeneity OEM Leadership Market Segmentation Strategic Drivers Conclusions Regional Similarities & Differences Global Spectrum Harmonisation Market Segmentation Pioneer's Prediction Chapter 6 Technology Penetration and Bandwidth Demand Analysis Fixed WiMAX as Backhaul Technology in Mobile Networks: Market Opportunity Forecast WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Techniques WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Market Opportunity WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Scenario Analysis by Region North America Asia Pacific Bandwidth Demand Analysis: Network Requirements Bandwidth Demand Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in North America Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Europe Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Asia Pacific Chapter 7 Conclusions Comparative Technology Costs G Network Development Drivers & Constraints Drivers Constraints G Network Development Drivers & Constraints Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G Global Themes Regional Themes Forecasts APPENDIX 1 Assumed Mobile Subscriber Usage Patterns Exhibit 1.1: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies Exhibit 1.2: Worldwide Growth of 3G UMTS Subscribers Exhibit 1.3: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment Exhibit 1.4: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across Scenarios Exhibit 1.5: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions) Exhibit 1.6: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific Exhibit 1.7: Comparison of Fixed WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under Different Growth Scenarios Exhibit 1.8: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 1.9: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 1.10: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 2.1: Mobile Telecom Technologies Covered in this Report Exhibit 2.2: Countries included in Regional Analysis Exhibit 2.3: Companies Mentioned in this Report Exhibit 2.4: Forecast Data Available from this Report Exhibit 3.1: Evolution of Wireless Technology

5 Exhibit 3.2: UMTS Architecture 3.7 Exhibit 3.3: HSDPA Architecture Exhibit 3.4: CDMA 1xEV-DO Architecture Exhibit 3.5: Frequency Division Multiplexing Exhibit 3.6: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Exhibit 3.7: WiMAX Network Exhibit 3.8: IEEE Specifications Exhibit 3.9: Typical Wi-Fi Network Exhibit 3.10: FLO Network Architecture Exhibit 3.11: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies Exhibit 4.1: Worldwide Growth of UMTS Subscribers Exhibit 4.2: Regional Breakdown of UMTS Subscribers (December 2004) Exhibit 4.3: UMTS Network Status Deployed Exhibit 4.4: HSDPA Network Status (Planned/Deployment underway) Exhibit 4.5: Worldwide Growth of CDMA EV-DO Subscribers Exhibit 4.6: Regional Breakdown of CDMA (2000 1x and EV-DO) Subscribers (December 2004) Exhibit 4.7: CDMA EV-DO Network Status Exhibit 4.8: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment Exhibit 4.9: Evolution of WiMAX Standards and Applications Exhibit 4.10: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 4.11: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 4.12 Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in North America across Scenarios Exhibit 4.13: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe Exhibit 4.14: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe Exhibit 4.15: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Europe across Scenarios Exhibit 4.16: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 4.17: Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 4.18: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across Scenarios Exhibit 5.1: Classification of Equipment Manufacturers Exhibit 5.2: WiMAX Forum Certified Products Exhibit 6.1: Gompertz Curve Exhibit 6.2: Fisher-Pry Model S-Curve Exhibit 6.3: Normal Distribution Curve & Equation Exhibit 6.4: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers Exhibit 6.5: Methodology for Estimation of BTS Units Exhibit 6.6: Trends in Average BTS cost (per unit) Exhibit 6.7: Forecast Combined Mobile Subscriber Population in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.8: Forecast Mobile Subscriber Penetration Rate in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.9: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions) Exhibit 6.10: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.11: WiMAX Penetration Scenarios in North America Exhibit 6.12: WiMAX BTS Installations in North America Exhibit 6.13: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in North America Exhibit 6.14: WiMAX Penetration in Europe Exhibit 6.15: WiMAX BTS Installations in Europe Exhibit 6.16: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Europe Exhibit 6.17: WiMAX Penetration in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.18: WiMAX BTS Installations in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.19: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.20: Comparison of WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under Different Growth Scenarios Exhibit 6.21: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers by Technology Exhibit 6.22: Optimal Mobile Application Bandwidth Requirements Exhibit 6.23: Optimal Bandwidth for 'Other' Future Applications Exhibit 6.24: Scenario Analysis of Forecast 4G Penetration Rates Exhibit 6.25: Assumed Usage Patterns for 2G, 3G, & 4G Mobile Subscribers Exhibit 6.26: Estimation of Total Bandwidth Requirement of an Average Subscriber Exhibit 6.27: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 6.28: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 6.29: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 6.30: North American 2G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.31: North American 3G Subscriber Forecast

6 Exhibit 6.32: North American 4G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.33: Forecast North American 2G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.34: Forecast North American 3G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.35: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.37: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe Exhibit 6.38: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe Exhibit 6.39: European 2G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.40: European 3G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.41: European 4G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.42: Forecast European 2G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.43: Forecast European 3G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.44: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.45: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.46: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.47: Forecast Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.48: Asia Pacific 2G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.49: Asia Pacific 3G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.50: Asia Pacific 4G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.51: Total Asia Pacific 2G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.52: Total Asia Pacific 3G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.53: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.54: Pioneer Forecast of Mobile Bandwidth Demand by Region and Technology (Moderate Growth Scenario) Exhibit 6.55: Pioneer Forecast Mobile Technology Bandwidth Market Shares by Region in 2010 (Moderate Growth Scenario) Exhibit 6.56: Pioneer Forecast Bandwidth Demand CAGR's by Technology and Region (Moderate Growth Scenario) Exhibit A1.1: Usage Patterns for 2G Subscribers Exhibit A1.2: Usage Patterns for 3G Subscribers Ordering: Order Online - Order by Fax - using the form below Order by Post - print the order form below and send to Research and Markets, Guinness Centre, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland.

7 Page 1 of 2 Fax Order Form To place an order via fax simply print this form, fill in the information below and fax the completed form to (from USA) or (from Rest of World). If you have any questions please visit Order Information Please verify that the product information is correct and select the format(s) you require. Product Name: Web Address: Office Code: The Impact of 3G & 4G Wireless Technology On Carriers' Network Development Strategies SC Product Formats Please select the product formats and quantity you require: Electronic - Site License: Electronic - Single User: Quantity USD 4500 USD 3800 * The price quoted above is only valid for 30 days. Please submit your order within that time frame to avail of this price as all prices are subject to change. Contact Information Please enter all the information below in BLOCK CAPITALS Title: Mr Mrs Dr Miss Ms Prof First Name: Last Name: Address: * Job Title: Organisation: Address: City: Postal / Zip Code: Country: Phone Number: Fax Number: * Please refrain from using free accounts when ordering (e.g. Yahoo, Hotmail, AOL)

8 Page 2 of 2 Payment Information Please indicate the payment method you would like to use by selecting the appropriate box. Pay by credit card: You will receive an with a link to a secure webpage to enter your credit card details. Pay by check: Please post the check, accompanied by this form, to: Research and Markets, Guinness Center, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland. Pay by wire transfer: Please transfer funds to: Account number Sort code Swift code IBAN number Bank Address ULSBIE2D IE78ULSB Ulster Bank, Main Street, Blackrock, Co. Dublin, Ireland. If you have a Marketing Code please enter it below: Marketing Code: Please note that by ordering from Research and Markets you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions at Please fax this form to: (646) or (646) From USA or From Rest of World