Sri Lanka Transmission Plans Including Existing Transmission System and Generation & Demand Forecast Inclusive of Existing Demand/ Generation Scenario

Transcription

1 Sri Lanka Transmission Plans Including Existing Transmission System and Generation & Demand Forecast Inclusive of Existing Demand/ Generation Scenario 2nd Task Force 2 Meeting On Advancement of Transmission Systems Interconnections Dr. H.M. Wijekoon Chief Engineer (Transmission Planning) Ceylon Electricity Board Sri Lanka

2 Government of Sri Lanka Ministry of Power and Energy CEB Generation Licence GL GOSL Policy Directions Licensing Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka Licensing Independent Power Producers CEB Transmission Licence TL Small Power Producers CEB Disribution Licence DL 1 CEB Disribution Licence DL 2 Lanka Electricity Company PVT Ltd. DL5 CEB Disribution Licence DL 3 CEB Disribution Licence DL 4 Organization of the Power Sector Consumers

3 Sri Lanka Economy and Electricity Sri Lankan Economy Demographic and Economic Indicators of Sri Lanka Units Mid-Year Population Millions Population Growth Rate % n.a GDP Real Growth Rate % GDP /Capita (Market prices) US$ 1,421 1,634 2,014 2,057 2,400 2,836 2,923 Exchange Rate (Avg.) LKR/US$ GDP Const 2002 Prices Mill LKR 2,090,564 2,232,656 2,365,501 2,449,214 2,645,542 2,863,854 3,047,277 Electricity and Economy Source: Annual Report 2012, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Forecast of GDP Growth Rate in Real Terms Year GDP Growth Rate (%) Source: Annual Report 2011, Central Bank of Sri Lanka 3

4 Electricity Data for 2012 Installed capacity MW Peak Demand MW Electricity Generated GWh Generation Mix - Hydro 28% Thermal 72% Capacity Mix - Hydro 46% Thermal 54% System losses - 11% Load Factor % Access to Electricity - 94% Elec. Consumption per Capita kwh Avg. Cost per unit (at selling point) Rs/kWh Avg. selling price Rs/kWh

5 EXISTING GENERATING SYSTEM Hydro and Renewable Plant Name 35MW Broadlands Hydropower Project annual energy -126GWh 120 MW Uma Oya Hydropower Project annual energy - 231GWh Expected Annual Avg. Energy (GWh) Laxapana Complex Canyon Committed plants for the study Capacity (MW) Upper Kotmale Victoria Kotmale Randenigala Ukuwela Bowatenna Rantambe Kukule Small hydro 20 Wimalasurendra Old Laxapana New Laxapana Polpitiya Laxapana Total Mahaweli Complex Mahaweli Total Other Hydro Samanalawewa Other Hydro Total Wind plant Existing Total

6 EXISTING GENERATING SYSTEM Thermal Plants Committed plants for the study Puttalam Coal Power Project Stage II (Net 2x275MW) 24MW Chunnakam Extension power plant 20MW Northern Power plant Plant Retirements Plant Name Puttalam Coal Power Plant Puttalam CPP-Phase I 22.5MW Lakdhanavi power plant 20MW ACE Power Matara 20MW ACE Power Horana 1x300 1x275 Kelanitissa Power Station Gas turbine (Old) Gas turbine (New) x17 MW Kelanitissa Gas Turbines Combined Cycle (JBIC) x18 MW units at Sapugaskanda Kelanitissa Total MW Kelanitissa Gas Turbine Sapugaskanda Power Station x9 MW units at Sapugaskanda Diesel x9 MW units at Sapugaskanda Recommended Plant Extensions by 5 years up to year 2018 No of Units x No of Units x Annual Name Plate Capacity used Max. Capacity for Studies Energy (MW) (MW) (GWh) Diesel (Ext.) Sapugaskanda Total 5 x 20 1 x x 17 1 x x x x 20 8 x x 18 8x x Small Thermal Plants Chunnakam Small Thermal Total Existing Total Thermal

7 EXISTING GENERATING SYSTEM IPP Thermal Plants Plant Name Capacity (MW) Capacity used for Studies Min. Guaranteed Ann. Energy (GWh) Independent Power Producers Asia Power Ltd Colombo Power (Pvt) Ltd AES Kelanitissa (Pvt.) Ltd Heladanavi (Pvt.) Ltd. ACE Power Embilipitiya Ltd West Coast ( Pvt)Ltd. Lakdhanavi ACE Power Matara ACE Power Horana Existing Total IPP Committed Northern power Committed Total IPP - Total Installed Capacity 3334 MW (Including Small Hydros and Wind) 7

8 Enhanced accessibility(2013) Jaffna 89 % 28% Kilinochchi Mullaithivu 87% Mannar 25% 77 % Vavuniya >97% 80-97% 60-80% <60% 88% 93 % Trincomalee Anuradhapura Electrification Level in December % Puttalam 95 % Polonnaruwa Batticoloa Matale Kurunegala 95% 96 % 96% 80% Kandy Kegalle 100%Gampaha96% Colombo 100% Kalutara 100% 100 % 95% Badulla Nuwaraeliya 93% Ratnapura 89% 100 % 86% Hambantota Galle Enrich Life through Power Moneragala Matara 98 % 100% Ampara 95%

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10 Hydro Capacity Variation During Last 3 Years

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13 ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST Sectorial Consumption of Electricity (2012) 13

14 ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST Methodology Econometric modelling has been adopted by CEB for the electricity demand forecast. Sales figures of the past were analysed against following independent variables. o GDP Per Capita o Number of Domestic Consumer Accounts Domestic Sector o Previous year sector electricity demand o GDP o Previous year sector electricity demand o GDP o Previous year sector electricity demand o Time-trend analysis Industrial Sector Commercial Sector Other 14

15 Methodology Domestic Sector three variables: Number of domestic consumer accounts, Gross domestic product per capita and previous year sector electricity demand were significant independent variables for the domestic sector demand growth. Industrial Sector Industrial differs from domestic sector in terms of significant variables. The significant variables for electricity demand growth in this sector are GDP and previous year sector electricity demand

16 Commercial (General Purpose) Sector Commercial sector significant variables for electricity demand growth are GDP and previous year sector electricity demand, same industrial sector. Other Sector The two consumer categories: religious purpose and street lighting are considered in the other sector. Because of the diverse nature of the consumers included in this category, this category was analysed without any links to other social or demographic variables. Hence, a time-trend analysis was performed to predict the demand in this sector

17 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST ( ) Year Demand (GWh) Gross Losses (%) Generation (GWh) Peak Demand (MW) 11, ,566 2,451 12, ,502 2,692 12, ,509 2,894 13, ,388 3,017 14, ,270 3,193 15, ,171 3,383 16, ,087 3,556 16, ,030 3,731 17, ,010 3,920 18, ,023 4,125 19, ,072 4,287 20, ,159 4,499 21, ,284 4,717 22, ,458 4,948 23, ,677 5,187 25, ,949 5,369 26, ,273 5,625 27, ,645 5,893 28, ,079 6,171 30, ,555 6,461

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20 LONG TERM TRANSMISSION DEVELOPMENT PLAN CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD SRI LANKA

21 PRESENT TRANSMISSION NETWORK Transmission voltage levels 220 kv 132 kv Transmission Lines/Cables 2348 km 220 kv 502 km 132 kv 1846 km o OH o UG Grid Substations 132/33 kv 220/132/33 kv 220/132 kv 220/33 kv 132/11kV 1796 km 50 km No MVA

22 2013 Sri Lankan Transmission System

23 Transmission Planning Procedure

24 Preparation of Grid Demand Forecast National Power Demand is allocated among the existing grid substations considering the trends of load variation, spot loads and distribution network arrangements Overloaded grid substations are identified after considering possible load transferred to adjacent grid substations Augmentations and construction of new grid substations are established This process is repeated until the grid substation demand forecast meet the planning criteria

25 Generation Expansion Plan YEAR RENEWABLE ADDITIONS THERMAL ADDITIONS x5 MW Northern Power 3x8 MW Chunnakum Extension** 1x300 MW Puttalam Coal (Stage II) THERMAL RETIREMENTS 4x5 MW ACE Power Matara 4x5 MW ACE Power Horana 4x5.63 MW Lakdanavi 1x300 MW Puttalam Coal (Stage III) 3x75 MW Gas Turbine 6x16.6 MW Heladanavi Puttalam 14x7.11 MW ACE Power Embilipitiya 4x15 MW Colombo Power plant 8x6.13 MW Asia Power 5x17 MW Kelanitissa Gas Turbines 4x18 MW Sapugaskanda diesel - Transmission 35 MWPlanning Broadlands 120 MW Uma Oya 1x105 MW Gas Turbine Procedure 27 MW Moragolla 2x250 MW Trincomalee Coal Power 4x5 MW Northern Power Plant - 2x300 MW Coal plant 1x300 MW Coal plant 49 MW Gin Ganga 1x300 MW Coal plant

26 Evaluation of Planning Criteria Ensures quality and reliability of supply under normal operating conditions as well as under single contingency conditions 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Voltage Criteria Thermal Criteria Security Criteria Stability Criteria Short Circuit Criteria

27 Scenarios investigated under Normal and Single Contingency Conditions Generation Scenario Hydro Max. Load Scenario Day Peak Night Peak HMDP HMNP Minimum OP Thermal Max. TMDP TMNP

28 Project Proposals by Study Year

29 2032 Sri Lankan Transmission System

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32 Total investment requirement from year 2013 to 2022

33 Projects Under Implementation No. Name of Project 1 Clean Energy & Access Improvement Project 2 Lender Cost (mus$) ADB 135 Augmentation of GS for Absorption of Renewable Energy GOSL 8 3 Augmentation of GS for Absorption of Renewable Energy ADB Installation of Rantambe Inter- bus transformer GOSL/CEB 31 5 Clean Energy & Network Efficiency Improvement Project ADB Habarana Veyangoda 220kV Transmission Project JICA Greater Colombo Transmission & Distribution Loss Reduaction Project JICA 205 Total (mus$) 744

34 Projects Securing Funds No. Name of Project Lender Cost (mus$) 1 Construction of GS for RE Absorption FDA 30 2 Green Power Development and Energy Efficiency Improvement Programme ADB th Yen Loan Package JICA 150 Total (mus$) 360

35 India - Sri Lanka Electricity Grid Interconnection

36 Background Pre-feasibility study conducted with the assistance of USAID in 2002 by Nexant Inc. Review of the Pre-feasibility study with assistance of USAID in 2006 by Nexant/ Power Grid Corporation of India Bilateral discussions by Secretary, Ministry of Power and Energy Sri Lanka and Secretary Ministry of Power, India in Dec Cabinet of Ministers approved in principle in Dec 2006, to study the feasibility of power interconnection and to appoint a Steering Committee Co- Chaired by Secretaries of Power Ministries and to appoint a Task Force for technical, commercial, regulatory and legal aspects. 36

37 Background Conts. A MOU on Feasibility Study for India- Sri Lanka Electricity Grid Interconnection was signed among GOSL, GOI, CEB and Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) on 9th June Executing Agencies; CEB and PGCIL are jointly carrying out the feasibility study 37

38 Benefits and Opportunities for Sri Lanka 17 June 2014 Opportunity to enter into India Power Exchange for energy trading Access to electricity from cheaper sources of power generation in the South Asia Region Reduction in operational cost through better resource management Meeting growing power demand with imported power Improved load profile - valley filling Improved system reliability and security 38

39 Line Route Maduari 130km overhead Panaikulam 120km Thiruketis submarine -waram 110km overhead A Pura High voltage direct current (HVDC), operating at ±400 kv Total interconnection capacity will be 1000 MW

40 Potential for Power Exchange Contracts Short term contracts Monthly average prices reported in Indian short term market are in the range of 6.68 to 9.52 UScts/kWh (capacity + energy) monthly average purchase prices forecast for Sri Lanka are in the range of 6.50 to UScts/kWh (energy only) During peak hours, Sri Lanka can make use of the lower cost Indian short term market During off peak, the excess coal based generation in Sri Lanka could be sold to the Indian short term market Long term contracts Owing to economies of scale, Sri Lanka signing up with an Indian UMPP could be cheaper than building own plants Similarly, if Sri Lanka can build an UMPP, it can also serve the Indian base load, owing to the persistent shortfall in India

41 Power Transfer Costs Following costs will further reduce any apparent benefits of power exchange between India and Sri Lanka Investment and operational costs of the interconnection transmission fees of about 0.52 UScts/kWh require to be paid to the Indian grid for transfers within southern grid (based on current regulatory determinations in India) energy loss attributed to power transfers between India (southern region) and Sri Lanka (Anuradhapura) amounting to at least 6%

42 Legal and Regulatory Issues CEB needs to be empowered to enter into crossborder power transfers The Transmission and Bulk Supply license held by CEB is required to be amended Dispute resolution in the Sri Lanka Electricity Act requires to be further strengthened CEB Act has to be amended to enable the functions of trader or broker, as relevant

43 To achieve project viability The project must be structured as a 1x500 MW monopolar interconnection with no specific assets or commitments now to raise the capacity to 1000 MW If the project costs are further reduced by reconsidering the routing options, the 1x500 MW monopolar option has the potential to be viable Target project cost for a POWERGRID-CEB joint venture to be profitable is MUSD (excluding customs duty and taxes), which at present is estimated to be 554 MUSD Both Sri Lanka and India be allowed participation in the wholesale market in each others country, with full options and freedom to participate in the short-term, day-ahead and unscheduled interchanges market Sri Lankan power system shall relax its maximum load share condition and allow the interconnection to supply at the optimal capacity level

44 Revised Electricity Grid Interconnection Madurai 190 km 50km Thalai Mannar 140 km New Anuradhapura

45 Thank You Dr. H.M. Wijekoon Ceylon Electricity Board Ceylon Electricity Board 45

46 Voltage Criteria Bus bar Allowable voltage variation (%) voltage Normal operating condition Single contingency condition 220 kv 10% 10% 132 kv 10% 10%

47 Thermal Criteria Loading of any element should not exceed their rated thermal loading values for steady state condition

48 Security Criteria After outage of any element, the system should be able to meet the distribution demand maintaining the specified voltage levels and remaining circuits should not exceed their emergency ratings.

49 Stability Criteria Ensures the system stability during and after disturbances in case of Three Phase fault at any overhead line terminal cleared by successful and unsuccessful re-closing Loss of any generation unit Load rejection

50 Short Circuit Criteria Busbar Voltage 132kV and above System Maximum 3 Phase Fault level (ka) Over head 40.0 UG Cable 40.0 Over head 25.0 UG Cable 25.0 UG Cable kV 11kV