Squamish Senior Citizens Homes Society Need and Demand Study

Transcription

1 Squamish Senior Citizens Homes Society Need and Demand Study Determining Feasibility for Expansion to Affordable Rental Stock Image 1 The Manor Apartments owned and operated by the Squamish Senior Citizens Society Prepared for the Squamish Senior Citizens Homes Society by: Margaret Forbes, MPA August 1 st, 2014

2 2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 Community Commitment to Affordability... 2 INTRODUCTION... 8 SCOPE OF STUDY AND LIMITATIONS... 8 KEY STUDY ASSUMPTIONS... 9 DEFINITIONS OF TERMS... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. THE HOUSING CONTINUUM COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC PROFILE POPULATION (SIZE, GROWTH RATE) POPULATION PROJECTIONS AGE AND GENDER HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE AND MEDIAN INCOMES HOUSING Household Size and Composition Housing/ Dwellings CURRENT AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED Core Housing Need Current Wait Lists for Affordable Rental Housing In Squamish CURRENT OCCUPIERS OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING (RENTAL) IN NEED HOUSEHOLDS FROM OTHER TENURES IN NEED HOUSEHOLDS WITH SOCIAL NEEDS AGGREGATE CURRENT HOUSING NEED AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY AVAILABLE HOUSING STOCK Vacant Units within Social Housing Sector Committed Supply of New Affordable Housing Units to be taken out of management Aggregate Stock to Meet Current Housing Need Current Unmet Housing Need EMERGING HOUSING NEED NEW HOUSEHOLDS FORMATION NEW HOUSEHOLD FORMATIONS WITH INCOMES THAT PRECLUDE OPEN MARKET ENTRY OLDER HOUSEHOLDS IN OWNER OCCUPIED HOMES SEEKING SOCIAL HOUSING IN- MIGRATION AGGREGATE EMERGING HOUSING NEED ANTICIPATED AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY ANNUAL SOCIAL HOUSING TURNOVER (LESS NEW UNITS AND TRANSFERS) COMMUNITY AMENITIES Potential Partnership Opportunities GAP ANALYSIS CONCLUSION:... 40

3 1 Executive Summary Background Squamish Senior Citizens Homes Society referred to as 'the Society' commissioned this self- funded study to explore the feasibility as a first step toward their goal of expanding affordable rental housing in Squamish for seniors 55 and over. The Society was motivated by their lengthy current wait list for their existing 70 affordable and subsidized rental units. The Society was formed 40 years ago with a mandate to provide affordable rental housing for Squamish seniors. In the subsequent years they have successfully, built, owned and operated two rental- housing properties on a large piece of property provided by the District of Squamish. The property is centrally located in the downtown core, and has been zoned and serviced for multi- unit housing. This study is intended to assess the current and future affordable rental housing needs of seniors in Squamish. The Society also intends to share this study with potential partners in order to explore possible uses for the lower floor area. This study uses secondary source research specific to seniors in Squamish and the Sea to Sky Corridor from CMHC, Statistic Canada, BC Stats, and local industry and special interest groups in the area. Included in this study are: A community demographic and income profile. Current and anticipated affordable housing need and supply. An examination of existing community amenities specific to seniors. A gap analysis of the data to determine current and future community need in affordable rental housing for seniors Amenities and services that would potentially aid in support existing provincial aging in place policies that may potentially be incorporated into the Society's site through strategic partnering The study was approached with the key assumption that 80% of the potential market for seniors rental housing would come from the District of Squamish and immediate surrounding area. The other 20% would come from neighboring communities. It was anticipated that this type of rental housing would appeal to seniors years of age, and that this group would make up 80% of the target market. Younger or pre- seniors, years of age and elderly seniors, 85+ would make up the other 20% of the target market interested in this type of housing. In order to clearly understand the needs and demands in the community it is important to identify what already exists, and the gaps in service that need to be addressed. Within this study the Housing Continuum serves as a guide in identifying need and future housing priorities.

4 2 Study Highlights Community Commitment to Affordability The District of Squamish has identified seniors housing as a priority. The District proved their commitment to this priority by banking the generous piece of land for seniors affordable housing, where the Society's properties are sited. The recently adopted Affordable Housing Framework for Squamish highlights the community's commitment to ensuring policies and resources are in place to support affordable housing projects. Community Demographic and Economic Profile Population The District of Squamish is identified as one of the fastest growing communities in British Columbia. In 2011, the population of Squamish census agglomeration (CA) was 17,479, representing a percentage change of 14.6% from Squamish has a young demographic. The current populations of seniors at 9.5% of the population is low compared to national averages Population Projections The proportion of the population over the age of 65 is expected to increase from about 8% in 2001 to 15% by 2031, and if 55 years of age and older are included the proportion is expected to increase from 16% in 2001 to 26% by In absolute terms, the number of people aged 55 to 64 is anticipated to increase by 220% between 2001 and The number of people aged 65 to 74 is anticipated to increase by over 290%. The number of people over the age of 75 years of age is anticipated to increase by 325%. In the next two decades, the Howe Sound Local Health Area #48 is expected to see its senior s population increase by 244%, the highest increase in the Lower Mainland/Sea to Sky area and more than double that expected for the region s seniors population as a whole. Household Average and Median Incomes 1 Description Median Income $35,550 $34,640 $35,660 $35, Median Income 65 and over $26,970 $26,600 $27,450 $27,900 Women seniors tend to be more financially insecure then their male counterparts. In 2006, 30 out of the Sea to Sky sub- area s 780 male seniors fell below the LICO- AT, all lived in Squamish. This incidence of 3.8% was much lower than that in Metro Vancouver at 17.1%. In comparison in 2006, 165 out of the Sea to Sky sub- area s 855 female seniors fell below the low- income line. 135 of the total female seniors in the corridor resided in Squamish 1 Statistics Canada. Table Seniors' characteristics, by age group and income from all sources, annual (dollars unless otherwise noted) 2 Numbers are based on census counts for non- family senior households available. 3 All population data was found on the Statistics Canada Website at: recensement/2011/as- sa/fogs- spg/facts- cma- eng.cfm?lang=eng&gk=cma&gc=934

5 3 The United Way of the Lower Mainland/Sea to Sky area in their Seniors Vulnerability Report (2011) identified Squamish as one of the communities in their lower mainland catchment with the greatest proportion of low- income seniors in 2006, at 13.4%. Labour Market and Economic Growth or Decline Squamish has a steady work history and maintains a comparatively healthy employment rate. Squamish's labour market has transitioned away from resource- based industries in the past decade as a result of a number of plants and yards closing. Seniors currently living in Squamish may have potentially faced income interruptions as a result. The continued growth of the tourism and recreation industries, along with jobs created as a lead up to the Olympic preparations have been a catalyst, and the number of jobs available throughout the next years is predicted to continue increasing. Housing Size and Composition In 2011, the number of census families in Squamish was 4,935, which represents an increase of 13.4% from The growth rate for Canada was 5.5% over the same period. According to recent Census data non- family households: defined as persons living alone, or with non- family members in the age range of 15 years and older, make up 2,115 households in the District. Squamish had a medium high percentage of seniors 65 and older living alone. Current Housing! Twice as many seniors go from owning to renting as from renting to owning.! There are very few apartment rental units available in Squamish. It should be noted that very few purpose built rental units have been added to the apartment rental stock in the past 15 years.! The majority of the housing in Squamish is less than 50 years old.! In 2006, 6% of the private dwellings in Squamish required major repair, or 345 dwellings. Tenure Type The following is a summary of senior's households in Squamish in 2011;! 1,550 persons 65 years of older living in households in Squamish.! Of these 540 were single person households! 95 lived with relatives! 25 lived with non- relatives, and! 415 lived on their own Housing Market Conditions The rental vacancy rate for all types of apartment units in Squamish as of April 14, 2014 is.3%, a significant decrease from 5.4% in the previous year. In the past five years the rental markets in Squamish have fluctuated. Average rent on one- bedroom units in Squamish rose by 8.1% in the past year, a significant increase. Squamish Home Price Index is currently for single detached property, a five- year increase of 23.4%. The housing market is currently quite active.

6 4 Housing starts in Squamish have decreased 15.4% from the previous years. Current Affordable Housing Need The following is a summary of current wait list for senior's subsidized and affordable rental units in Squamish: Current Wait lists for Affordable Rental Housing in Squamish (Seniors and PWD) Wait list # Rental Property Summary 60 individuals Riverstones RGI units (PRHC owned) 18 from the Sea to Sky Corridor, with 13 of those from Squamish; all others are from somewhere else in the province but they have identified Squamish in their preferences of places to live. 68 individuals and couples The Societies Manor and Cedars Apartments 64 located in Squamish, 64 singles and 4 couples Median time on wait list 323 days On average individuals wait 2 years for a unit Median income was $ or $12, annually Median assets $0 Ages ranged from 55-84, 66 was the average age Affordability was the most frequent reason for applying for a unit followed by location. Almost 1/3 were moving from market rental units and the next most common response for their current housing situation was 'no fixed address' Aggregate Current Housing Need In summary:! 56 seniors in the Sea to Sky Corridor currently access SAFER Subsidies, a sizeable majority live in Squamish.! There are no vacancies and little turn over in the 154 units of purpose built affordable market and subsidized rental apartments in Squamish. These units have a combined wait list of 128 individuals; however there may be some duplication of individuals applying to both SSCS and the Society.! 89 individuals in Squamish, over the age of 55 years were homeless or precariously housed in the past 18 months and required the assistance from the homeless outreach worker in the community.! 5 women over the age of 55 sought Shelter at HSWC's Pearl's Place Transition House in the past three months. Only one of these women found affordable rental accommodations in the community after leaving.

7 5! 105 senior households were in core housing need in Squamish in 2006, an increase from 80 in Their average households income was $16,606 and shelter costs were $735. These households were paying on average 55.4% of their income to shelter.! A recent Seniors Vulnerability Study indicated 60% of single seniors or were spending 30% or more of their income on shelter costs while 26% or 71 non- family senior households were spending 50% or more.! In 2006, there were 85 senior, non- family households in core housing need due to lack of affordability. This represents a majority of the 105 seniors households in core housing need. Affordable Housing Supply 30 Rent Geared to Income rental units for seniors 55+ and persons with disabilities, and 54 Purpose built affordable rental units in the past 5 years some with mobility accommodations have been built. The Society owns and operates the Manor Apartments with 50 RGI units: 36 bachelor suites and 14 one- bedroom suites reserved for couples. In these units residents pay 30% of their income, up to the approved market rental amount. The second property, The Cedars, built in 1972, has 20 units: 4 one- bedroom units reserved for couples and 16 bachelor units. There are currently 10 contracts between housing providers and BC Housing for affordable and supportive housing projects operating in Squamish. These projects totalling 290 housing units, with the exception of the Riverstones affordable market units, assist special populations including: seniors, women leaving abusive situations, homeless individuals and individuals living with developmental disabilities, low income families and individuals. Emerging Housing Need According to projections an average annual increase in rental housing demand of 104 households between 2011 and 2036 is expected in the Squamish Lillooet Regional District, an increase of 54%. BC Non Profit Housing Association predicts that the number of renter households in core housing need will increase across all age groups by 2036, most dramatically among senior households. Anticipated Affordable Housing Supply People move from the current seniors housing rental units due to death or deterioration of their health requiring more supportive care. Turnover in the Societies and SSCS Riverstones units is low for both the market and RGI units. It is not anticipated that the current supply can keep up with the projected demands for seniors rental housing. Community Amenities 2 Numbers are based on census counts for non- family senior households available.

8 6 "To live full and independent lives, seniors need to be able to access basic services such as health care, grocery stores, retail shopping, community facilities and recreational opportunities. Basic services should be located within short walks of residences" CMHC (2012) The site of the proposed expansion to the Society's existing apartment has many amenities within steps of the building including: " Grocery store and outdoor shopping mall " Pharmacy " Medical and health services " Squamish Seniors Centre and Clock Tower Cafe " Squamish Public Library " Community parks and trails " Restaurants and coffee shops " Transit stops In addition to nearby amenities, the Society offers an onsite administrator, onsite community garden, and a downstairs lounge in the Manor apartments. The Society partners with Vancouver Coastal Health and the nearby Shannon Falls Retirement home to offer onsite and coordinated programming that includes regular activities such as: cognitive and physical exercise programming, a diners club, computer supports and classes and a monthly guest speaker. Potential Partnership Opportunities The current expansion of rental housing provides an opportunity for the Society to partner with other seniors services to enhance and expand on the current community offerings and/or centralize existing seniors services in the following sectors: o o o o Home-care agencies Home health-care organizations Physicians groups Seniors centres or clubs These types of services require a high level of experience and expertise beyond the scope of the Society's current area of expertise, affordable rental housing. It would be more realistic for the society to enter into a strategic partnership with another organization or agency that could enhance the existing seniors services in the area. According to Vancouver Coastal Health home and community care services are available to adults of all ages, the majority of clients are seniors, aged 65 and older. Partnering with home care health services and seniors therapeutic services such as a Day Program may provide support for older seniors, allowing them to remain in their apartments longer and delaying their need for institutional care. In a report on seniors services in the lower mainland and Sea to Sky, the United Way noted that Squamish, Whistler and Pemberton had both the "fewest seniors services and the most limited array of services for seniors in the region. Gap Analysis! The gap between the current rental vacancy in Squamish and tenant demand makes it apparent that the need for affordable housing in the community exceeds the current supply.

9 7! Limited affordable seniors rental in the Sea to Sky Corridor North of Squamish, and Squamish's proximity to amenities, both in the District and within the Greater Vancouver area, will also influence demand for seniors affordable rental housing in Squamish.! In Squamish apartment rents rose 8.1% in the past year, while incomes for those 65+ rose by 2% in the same time period. Seniors incomes are typically fixed. If rents in Squamish continue to rise, as it is predicted they will, market rents will exceed the incomes of seniors, making even affordable market rental beyond the means of those with low incomes.! The Society's 42- year- old Cedars apartments will need to be decommissioned at some point in the near future. Although these apartments do not imminently need to be taken out of service, the proposed new rental development will help to offset this loss to the supply of these twenty affordable market rental units in the community. Conclusion: In concluding, there is ample evidence in support of the proposed expansion of the Squamish Seniors Citizens Homes Society's Seniors Affordable Market Housing at the current site of the Cedars and Manor apartments. The Society has the resources, knowledge and capacity to expand their existing rental with support from BC Housing and the District. In addition to providing much needed affordable rental units for seniors in Squamish, a strategic partnerships with other organizations such as Vancouver Coastal Health early in the project planning process could enhance the existing seniors cluster that has evolved in Squamish's downtown core, by incorporating additional seniors community supports into the main floor of a new building Next steps for the Society 1. Share the findings from this report with funders such as BC Housing and potential strategic partners to explore available resources. 2. Although a great deal of information was obtained on the perspectives of the local seniors community through recent studies, information from housing providers and wait list information, it would be helpful to survey the community seniors who are planning to downsize either through a survey or focus groups to get further insights. 3. When ready, the Society can begin the development process to actualize this project. CMHC and BC Housing provide excellent resources (some can be found in this documents bibliography) that can aid in this process.

10 8 Introduction This study commissioned by the Squamish Senior Citizens Homes Society, subsequently referred to as 'the Society', will examine the feasibility of expanding their affordable rental housing stock for seniors, aged 55 and over, who are able to live independently in the community. The Society was motivated to partake in this study by the growing waiting list for their 70 existing bachelor and one- bedroom units. This study will examine current and future need and demand for affordable seniors rental housing; including strengths and weaknesses of the current location. This study was self- funded by the Society, as a first step in a potential expansion of affordable rental in Squamish. It is intended that the new housing would be built in proximity to their current units: The Manor, a 50- unit apartment building and The Cedars, a grouping of 20 one- story units built in The Society's existing rental housing is located on a parcel of land serviced and zoned M- 3 multi- family use, that has been banked for this purpose by the District of Squamish to the Society. The Society, formed by a group of seniors on March 1970, celebrates 40 years of success owning and operating affordable seniors rental housing in the communities downtown core. The existing housing is a result of the efforts of the dedicated members of the Society. In addition to the dedication of their members, assistance both financially and morally has been given to the Squamish Senior Citizens Home Society by the District of Squamish and community organizations, as well as CMHC and BC Housing. The Society is successfully operated through a volunteer Board of Directors comprised of local community members. It employs a full time administrator to manage the operations. The goals and objectives of the Society are to provide affordable housing for senior citizens. There existing buildings are well maintained and in good repair and they currently have a sizeable capital fund for a potential new build. Purpose of Study According to BC Housing, a need and demand analysis study of this type describes the demographic and economic factors affecting the housing needs of the community. Historical information, as well as forecasts from Census Canada, CMHC, BC Stats, Local Government, BC Housing and local community agency was used to compile the study. To assess the current and future affordable rental housing needs of seniors in Squamish this study includes: a community demographic and income profile, current and anticipated affordable housing need and supply, an examination of existing community amenities specific to seniors and a gap analysis of the data to determine current and future community need in affordable rental housing for seniors, as well as amenities and services that would potentially aid in support existing provincial aging in place policies that may potentially be incorporated into the Society's site. Due to building restrictions the lower floor of any new building on the site could not be used for housing and may be utilized by a partner agency to augment the seniors supports in Squamish's downtown core. This study is also intended by the Society to be shared with potential partners in order to explore possible uses for the lower floor area. Scope of Study and Limitations This study uses an established template developed by BC Housing for the purpose of aiding project sponsors in developing need and demand studies. This template can be found at: Need and Demand Template

11 9 The research for this Need and Demand study includes secondary source research specific to seniors in the District of Squamish and when this is unavailable, the Sea to Sky Corridor region. The information used was readily available from existing sources at the federal, provincial and local levels of government and through previous local studies. This information includes: population trends, economic, demographic and housing market and affordable housing information. The lack of primary source data is viewed as a limitation within this study. To minimize this limitation, several recent local studies that directly or indirectly assessed senior s need in the community were included in the research. None of these however, directly surveyed or interviewed local seniors about housing affordability specifically. Although primary source data specific to seniors housing would be preferable, it was beyond the scope of this initial feasibility study and may be considered as a next step in this process. The researcher was able to obtain general information from the Society about their existing wait list. This helps provide a snapshot of the preferences, motivations for relocation and some economic and demographic information about seniors currently seeking senior specific affordable rental housing units. The following is a list of the local research and reports reviewed: Need and Demand Study for the District of Squamish i completed in 2012 An Affordable Housing Framework for Squamish completed and adopted by Council in April 2014 United Way Senior vulnerability Report Community Profile #7: Sea to Sky corridor A needs assessment as part of a Provincial Better At Home Project ii to determine the current needs of Seniors in the area living independently 2013 Sea to Sky Health Transportation Study Key Study Assumptions Market Area Definition It is anticipated that 80% of the market area for this study will be the census agglomeration of Squamish as defined by census Canada to include the District of Squamish, located within the Squamish Lillooet Regional District. Squamish the largest of the communities in the Sea to Sky Corridor, and as such has the most services and amenities. It is also within an easy drive to Vancouver, the closest urban center. It is anticipated that the other 20% of the potential tenants for the affordable rental housing will come as a result of seniors relocating from the local communities of Whistler and Pemberton due to a need to: access affordable rental housing, be nearer to health services, or to be closer to a support network or family members. It is also anticipated some individuals will migrate to Squamish to be closer to family supports from other areas in BC or from other provinces in Canada. The Sea to Sky Corridor is an alignment of communities along the Sea to Sky Highway (Highway 99) it travels from the Pacific Ocean to coastal- interior mountain valleys. The Corridor is part of the Squamish Lillooet Regional District. The communities in the Corridor are diverse in their geographic, demographic and economic makeup. The communities are: Squamish, Whistler, Pemberton, and six First Nations communities that have traditional territories in the Sea to Sky Corridor: Squamish Nation, Mount Currie home of the Lil'wat Nation, and the Southern Stl'atl'imx Nations of N'Quatqua, Samahquam (In- SHUCK- ch), Skatin (In- SHUCK- ch) and Douglas (Xt'xtsa).

12 10 Definition of Terms: (Available in Appendix 2) Market Demographic CMHC in a recent seniors housing development guide, Housing for Older Canadians: The Definitive Guide to the Over- 55 Market(CMHC 2013)recommend segmenting older Canadians into the following four age cohorts when conducting market analysis: Pre- seniors, aged 55 to 64; younger seniors, aged 65 to 74; older seniors, aged 75 to 84; and elderly seniors, aged 85 and older. Where the data available permits this will be done. For the purpose of this study it is anticipated that 80% of the potential tenants will be from the younger and older seniors age groups, with the remaining 20% from the pre- seniors and elderly seniors group. This segmentation of the seniors market by age or peer cohort will help to understand the market and community trends. Each of these groups, although not uniform, has some unique characteristics that can help in determining feasibility for the project based on their housing and lifestyle interests and typical housing and community use patterns. The Housing Continuum Housing occurs on a continuum that includes market rental and ownership, through to provincially subsidized housing programs. Affordable housing is housing available within the market that is affordable based on local market and median local income information. Affordable housing can be self- sustaining or require ongoing government subsidy to operate. Subsidized housing is typically developed for individuals with special needs that often have limited finances such as: seniors, homeless individuals, people with barriers such as addiction and mental health issues or the developmentally disabled. In order to clearly understand the needs and demands in the community it is important to identify what already exists, and the gaps in service that need to be addressed. The Housing Continuum serves as a guide in identifying need and future housing priorities. The following chart was obtained from the 2012 Affordable Housing Need and Demand Study for the District Squamish. (Forbes 2012) It contains all the existing affordable housing. In addition to the housing identified in this chart, market and rental housing that is beyond what would be affordable to a household with an income of more than $ $57,167 (based on the community definition included in the Affordable Housing Strategy for Squamish (2006) and the Affordable Housing Framework for Squamish (2014)) could also be part of the continuum.

13 11 Figure 2 Housing Continuum found in Affordable Housing Need and Demand Study for the District of Squamish (2012) Emergency Shelters Transitional (Supportive) Housing Social Housing Affordable Rental Housing Affordable Home Ownership Affordable Rental Housing Affordable Home Ownership Government Subsidized Housing Non- Market Housing Market Housing Helping Hands Homeless Shelter, SSCS Homeless Outreach Worker Pearl s Place Transition House VCH Outreach/ SIL Support Shannon Falls Retirement Home VCH Hilltop Residence Riverstones Rental Subsidized Units BC Housing Portable Rental Subsidies- Seniors Rental Assistance Program (SAFER) Bracken Heights Co- op Riverstones Market Rental Squamish Senior Citizens Homes Society Manor Apartments Purpose built rental units including SSCHS Cedars Apartments Secondary Suites Affordable Home Ownership Private Market Condos and Market Homeownership Community Demographic and Economic Profile The demographic profile of a community largely determines housing demand and the types of housing that is required. Therefore, it is important for any need and demand study to begin with an analysis of the community s demographic profile. Squamish has a total land area of square km (2006 Census). By highway the District is 65 km north of Vancouver and 57 km from Whistler the nearest community to the North. Squamish is in the Squamish- Lillooet Regional District. Population (size, growth rate) The community of Squamish is identified as one of the fastest growing communities in BC. This is partly attributed to its proximity to Vancouver, affordable housing relative to the neighbouring communities in the Greater Vancouver Area and Whistler, and the outdoor recreational opportunities it has to offer. In 2011, the population of Squamish census agglomeration (CA) was 17,479, representing a percentage change of 14.6% from This compares to the national growth of 5.9% and to the average growth among all CAs of 4.2%. The province of BC has adjusted the population total to 18,712 to adjust for census undercount. In 2011, the percentage of the population aged 65 and over in Squamish was 9.5%, compared with a national percentage of 14.8%. The percentage of the working age population (15 to 64) was 71.1% and the percentage of children aged 0 to 14 was 19.4%. In comparison, the national percentages were 68.5% for the population aged 15 to 64 and 16.7% for the population aged 0 to The average age in Squamish in 2011 was 36.8 years a much younger demographic than the province as a whole at an average age of 41.9 years. 3 All population data was found on the Statistics Canada Website at: recensement/2011/as- sa/fogs- spg/facts- cma- eng.cfm?lang=eng&gk=cma&gc=934

14 12 Population Projections This section will examine the target market for this study. Primarily seniors in the Squamish Census Agglomeration based on population projection reports for the District of Squamish compiled by BC Stats 4. BC Stats has also done extensive population projections for the province that are helpful for the purpose of determining the number of seniors in total in the area who may require affordable rental housing. 5 In addition to this information, some general trends found within the literature reviewed will also be provided at the end to summarize this section. According to the 2011 Census there are a total of 4,715 emerging seniors aged 50+ living in Squamish and a total of 1,645 seniors aged 65 and older. A 2005 Growth Management Strategy commissioned by the District of Squamish, indicates the age composition of the population within the District is projected to change significantly. For example, the proportion of the population over the age of 65 is expected to increase from about 8% in 2001 to 15% by The District Growth Management Strategy notes that, "including those 55 years of age and older, the proportion is expected to increase from 16% in 2001 to 26% by In absolute terms, the number of people aged 55 to 64 is anticipated to increase by 220% between 2001 and The number of people aged 65 to 74 is anticipated to increase by over 290%. The number of people over the age of 75 years of age is anticipated to increase by 325%. Figure 3 below illustrates the growth in the number of seniors during this period based on current BC Stats information and modified BC Stats projection data found in a 2005 Growth Management Strategy report prepared for the District of Squamish Figure 3 Actual and projected growth of seniors in the District of Squamish 6 4 From BC Stats page, a population estimate is a measure of the current or historical population. On an annual basis, BC Stats releases total population estimates for 190 municipalities and unincorporated areas, 29 regional districts and eight development regions located in B.C. These estimates are consistent in aggregate with the Statistics Canada produced annual (July 1) provincial level totals. 5 BC Stats explains, "a population projection is a forecast of future population growth. BC Stats applies the Component/Cohort- Survival method to project the population. This method "grows" the population from the latest base year estimate by forecasting births, deaths and migration by age. These forecasts are based on past trends modified to account for possible future changes and, consequently, should be viewed as only one possible scenario of future population. " 6 BC Stats PEOPLE 29 for Local Health Area 48 (Howe Sound) used to underlie projection Age breakdown for Squamish is same as Local Health Area found in Growth Management Report (2005) Prepared for the District of Squamish by Urbanics Consultants

15 13 According to the United Way s Lower Mainland Seniors Vulnerability Report for the Sea to Sky, between 1996 and 2006, the Squamish seniors population has increased by 30.9% and seniors in the Corridor have increased by 52.8%. Based on this data, the median age of the population in Squamish is projected to increase from 35.5 years of age in 2001 to 38.2 years of age by This compares to the median age in BC increase from 38.4 years to 44.5 years of age by 2031, according to BC Stats. As the numbers indicate, Squamish is projected to continue the trend of having a much younger population than the provincial average throughout the forecast period. A similar projected trend in senior's population growth in Squamish was made for the Sea to Sky Corridor. According to the United Way Lower Mainland and Sea to Sky's Seniors Vulnerability Report for the Sea to Sky Corridor (2011), in the next two decades, the Howe Sound Local Health Area #48 is expected to see its seniors population increase by 244%, the highest increase in the Lower Mainland/Sea to Sky area and more than double that expected for the region s seniors population as a whole 118%(Region 2011). Even by 2027, despite the very high rate of increase in seniors (244%), adults 65 and up are expected to remain a lower portion of the LHA s total population than in the region as a whole. At that time, they will account for 15% of the LHA s total (compared with 21% for the region), while the older age groups (75+ and 85+) will make up around 6% and 1% respectively, compared to 9% and 2% across the region. Figure 4 Health District # 48 Map provided by BC Stats Age and Gender The housing market behaviour of emerging, young, older and elderly seniors is quite different. There is also some gender difference within these groups as to market preference. For example, merging seniors are more likely to maintain their current residences and still be gainfully employed. They are therefore less likely to be candidates for downsizing and moving to affordable rental. Adults aged 80 and older are more likely to be frail and require greater service supports than affordable seniors rental has to offer. As boomers hit their senior years, many are assessing their housing options. The chart in the previous section illustrates the current seniors population by age. Within this section will examine seniors based on gender. An analysis of gender is important in planning for a number of reasons. First, historically women tend to live longer than men (although the gap is narrowing), therefore the proportion of women among seniors increases with age. One- person female led households also tend to move to housing options where they have a support network and they also tend to have lower incomes. Thus, making them more likely to move to a senior s affordable rental complex. Age and Gender Research highlights to consider in planning for seniors rental housing: # Based on 2011 census data released by Stats Can men in Squamish senior men represent 9% of the population and women represent 10.1%. Based on this data there were 85 more females over the age of 65 then males in the community in # Women represent 52% of senior's aged in the region and 67% of those 85 and older.(region 2011)

16 14 Household Average and Median Incomes Income rates and the labour market in a community heavily influence the housing market. Therefore, in order to understand housing affordability in the District we must understand the current income profile. According to 2011 census data the median household income in the District was $72,761. This represents an increase of 2% from the The median income for seniors in the District is provided in the chart below. Incomes in Squamish have increased by 14% since 2001, while housing costs have increased by 143% based on the findings from the Affordable Housing Need and Demand Study for the District (2012). Description Median Income $35,550 $34,640 $35,660 $35, Median Income 65 and over $26,970 $26,600 $27,450 $27,900 Figure 5 Statistics Canada. Table Seniors' characteristics, by age group and income from all sources, annual (dollars unless otherwise noted) The prevalence of what statistics Canada defines as low- income families after taxes in the District is 6.9%. Low income cut off after tax measure, or LICO- AT measures are according to Statistics Canada " set at after- tax income levels, differentiated by size of family and area of residence, where families spend 20 percentage points more of their after- tax income than the average family on food, shelter and clothing" 8. They do not represent a poverty measure. The following chart summarizes the breakdown of families identified as 'low income' in the District in comparison to the province as a whole. The Low Income Cut Off After Tax rate (LICO- AT) was used to describe 'low income' because it takes into consideration the Federal and Provincial income redistribution programs that are applied to adjust a person's income. For example, in the case of people over the age of 65, before tax the low- income prevalence is 13%, but when looking at after tax incomes the prevalence decreases to 5.3% due to income redistribution programs such as the Guaranteed Annual Income Supplement. The United Way of the Lower Mainland/Sea to Sky area in their Seniors Vulnerability Report (2011) identified Squamish as one of the communities in their lower mainland catchment with the greatest proportion of low- income seniors in 2006 at 13.4%. When using the After Tax versus the Before Tax income the percentage of individuals who were considered low income lessened in the groups analyzed. 7 Median is the middle number in a group of numbers. Where a median income, for example, is given as $26,000, it means that exactly half of the incomes reported are greater than or equal to $26,000, and that the other half is less than or equal to the median amount. 8 Statistics Canada 2006 Census Dictionary, found online at recensement/2006/ref/dict/fam019- eng.cfm retrieved on June 20, 2012.

17 15 Figure 6: Low Income Prevalence by Groups Squamish All economic families 4,125 1,112,810 After- tax low income 6.9% 9.9% Total # 285 BC Couple economic families 3, ,010 After- tax low income 5.3% 7.5% Total # 184 Persons 65 years and older 1, ,495 After- tax low income 5.3% 7.3% Total # % of the District's population received Provincial Income Assistance in 2011, totaling 1169 individuals. This represents a percentage increase of 3.25% in 2009, according to statistics available from BC Stats 9. The following chart outlines the social assistance amounts received in the province of BC. Individuals within this group were receiving temporary BC Basic Assistance Income or Employment Insurance. There is no information available on individuals receiving Disability Benefits or seniors benefits such as Old Age Security. The number also excludes aboriginals living on reserve, and Employment Insurance beneficiaries receiving sickness, maternity and paternity benefits. The economic disadvantage of women in Canada is well documented; the following information represents a snapshot of statistics relevant to this analysis. For example, the median annual incomes for women in British Columbia at $19,997 compared to $31,598 for men. This represents an income gap of over $11, 000. In Squamish, the average income for women is $22,634 and for men $38,392, based on 2006 Statistics Canada Census data. Women seniors tend to be more financially insecure then their male counterparts. In 2006, 30 out of the Sea to Sky sub- area s 780 male seniors fell below the LICO- AT, all lived in Squamish. This incidence of 3.8% was much lower than that in Metro Vancouver at 17.1%. In comparison in 2006, 165 out of the Sea to Sky sub- area s 855 female seniors fell below the low- income line. This incidence of 19.3% was slightly lower than the incidence of 23.8% for Metro Vancouver. A large portion of these individuals, 135 or 20% of the total female seniors in the corridor, resided in Squamish.( United Way of the Lower Mainland Sea to Sky 2011) In 2006, 2.2% of Howe Sound LHA#48 seniors received the maximum Government Income Supplement (GIS) 2.7% of female seniors and 1.8% of male seniors. 9 Source: Ministry of Social Development Administrative Files, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada and BC Stats Population Estimates. These figures include only a subset of those receiving Income Assistance under the BC Employment and Assistance program. INCLUDED are those on Temporary Assistance (Expected to Work, Expected to Work - Medical Condition, Temporarily Excused, Persistent Multiple Barriers). EXCLUDED are those on Continuous Assistance (Persons with Disabilities, Children in the Home of a Relative and OAS/Seniors). A recipient is defined in these reports as 'each person living in a family or living alone that is receiving basic Income Assistance'. Data does not include Aboriginal people living on reserve.

18 16 Some general facts about Seniors income in Canada according to the recent CMHC Series Housing for Older Canadians: The Definitive Guide to the Over- 55 Market (CMHC 2013) Although the four seniors cohorts within the market segment we are analyzing have many differences, older Canadians have several characteristics and preferences in common. For example, a majority are financially secure with stable incomes and mortgage- free homes. This will allow them to be selective in their housing and lifestyle choices. According to CMHC, among OECD countries, Canada has relatively low rates of poverty among seniors. Canadian seniors also receive a relatively high proportion of retirement incomes from private pensions and other financial assets. The key components of household consumption are food, shelter, and transportation. The ranking of these elements in 2003, for the 55- to- 64 age group, was shelter first, then transportation, then food, whereas for those over 75, the order was shelter, food, and transportation. This finding may be explained by the fact that many older and elderly seniors stop driving cars and travel less in general. Spending on health care may also become important as people age. What this means for housing is that an increasing number of older seniors may need to downsize from larger housing units. This is not simply because they are empty nesters, but also in order to extract the embedded wealth in the larger unit and use it to help pay for their consumption while living in a smaller unit, either purchased or rented. In larger urban markets, however, the high cost of condominiums often does not leave much net equity for downsizing households. Since current options are often limited, this market could be an opportunity for enterprising developers able to produce more affordable stock in desirable areas. Labour Market and Economic Growth or Decline With changes in mandatory retirement laws and pension arrangements, some seniors are choosing to continue working past 65, either full time or part time, while many are retiring fully from the labour market at an earlier age. Squamish has a steady work history and maintains a comparatively healthy employment rate. The continued growth of the tourism and recreation industries, along with jobs created as a lead up to the Olympic preparations have been a catalyst, predicted to increase the number of jobs available throughout the next years. Squamish's labour market has transitioned away from resource- - based industries in the past decade as a result of a number of plants and yards closing. The top emerging industries for jobs in the District of Squamish include: Information, Culture and Recreation, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services tied with Health Care and Social Assistance. 10 Some of Squamish's aging baby boomers would have worked within the logging and industrial industries and would have been impacted by the downturn in these sectors in the past 15 years and the subsequent loss of jobs. Many were faced with the choice of taking lower paid tourism and service jobs, or leaving the area in search of new employment and educational opportunities. As expected, the 2006 statistics show that labour force participation rates decrease as people near 65. In 2006, the labour force participation rate for men aged 45 to 54 was about 89%. This decreased to 68% for those aged 55 to 64; 22% for those aged 65 to 74; and 7.5% for those 75 and older. However, May5, 2012, Ghuman, G. EI Recipients Decrease in Squamish, retrieved online at The Squamish Reporter website: recepients- decrease- in- squamish/

19 17 with the elimination of mandatory retirement, labour force participation rates for older Canadians may change, with more seniors choosing to work. The decision to continue working depends on a number of factors, including health, income, and debt levels. For example, in 2006, 9% of senior women who did not report any limitations on their physical activities were employed, while fewer than 5% of those with some form of limitation were employed. Moreover, 22% of senior men and 10% of senior women who had a mortgage still had jobs, while seniors without a mortgage, whether renters or mortgage- free homeowners, were less likely to work past the age of A 2008 Statistics Canada study also looked at bridge employment. Bridge employment refers to any paid work that an individual does after retiring or starting to receive a pension. The study found that the proportion of individuals in bridge employment was increasing; from 7.9% in 1999 to 9.7% in Where people lived also influenced the probability of their entering bridge employment, with older workers living in rural areas or small communities, such as Squamish being almost twice as likely as those living in large urban centres to enter bridge employment. Housing This section will explore the current housing characteristics of households in Squamish and the Sea to Sky Corridor as it relates to seniors. In this section we refer to household population data, not individuals, since it is households who move from one residence to another. Communities can prepare for the growing seniors population by developing a good selection of housing choice for their aging populations. Having a well- diversified and affordable housing stock provides seniors with options to remain in their own community in the event that they can no longer live in their current residences. Household Size and Composition In 2011, the number of census families in Squamish was 4,935, which represents an increase of 13.4% from 2006, compared to a growth rate for Canada of 5.5% over the same period. In Squamish, 65% of census families were married couples in 2011, while 20.1% were common- law- couples and 14.8% were lone- parent families. 11 Non- family households, defined as persons living alone or with non- family members in the age range of 15 years and older, make up 2,115 households in the District. This household type throughout Canada has increased more than family households. With the projections of population aging, and the likelihood that women will continue to outlive men, single- family households are expected to maintain this pattern. In 2006 it was noted in the United Way Lower Mainland and Sea to Sky Seniors Vulnerability report that Squamish had a medium high percentage of seniors 65 and older living alone. At that time there were 330 seniors living alone this population increased to 410 seniors living alone in This study also notes, the number of older adults living alone is also rising steadily. The same report found that of those over 80 who live on their own or with other non- family members are especially 11 All statistics found in this section obtained from Statistic Canada 2011 Census data found at: recensement/2011/as- sa/fogs- spg/facts- cma- eng.cfm?lang=eng&gk=cma&gc=934