Reactors in the red: financial health of the US nuclear fleet
|
|
- Blanche Cummings
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Contents 1. ROUND-UP OF RECENT REACTOR RETIREMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS METHODOLOGY: MEASURING NUCLEAR PROFITABILITY MARKET IMPLICATIONS CASE STUDIES: FOUR REACTORS AT RISK. 11 Reactors in the red: financial health of the US nuclear fleet Five reactors announced premature retirement plans in H Many more could soon follow, short of a dramatic rebound in power, capacity or supplementary revenue streams. A close look at the US plant stack reveals 55GW of nuclear capacity facing sustained, long-run operating losses under current forward curves. With so much at stake, and potential knock-on effects for the entire US grid, this analysis explores the economics of the remaining nuclear fleet and predicts how many closures could still be on the way. 55% of the 1GW US nuclear fleet looks unprofitable over the period. The majority (29GW) of these underwater units are in deregulated regions, with the most impaired units commonly facing levelized shortfalls of $5-15/MWh. US nuclear power s unprofitability is largely a revenue problem. Dramatic decreases in hublevel power futures and the node-level effects of transmission congestion (partially due to new wind and gas build) have suppressed locational marginal prices (LMPs) to levels that cannot support nuclear power. This has reactors leaning increasingly heavily on standby capacity payments and lobbying hard for supplementary clean energy policy support. Figure 1: Profitability of US nuclear fleet, according to BNEF projections, (GW) Figure 2: Capacity, gas burn and emissions impact of US nukes by profitability status 3 Gas burn (Bcfd) Emissions (MtCO 2) GW GW 2 3 Positive GW 1 Unknown GW Negative Plan to Unknown Negative Positive Plan to Unknown Negative 4 retire retire 2 5 Deregulated regions Regulated regions 8GW - Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Notes: Profitability is defined throughout Source: Assumes equivalent generation from CCGT of heat as pre-tax earnings, based on our estimates of historical and forward power and rate 7MMBtu/MWh, carbon intensity.426tco2/mwh. Heat capacity prices, and long-run costs of operating each plant. rates and emissions actually vary by region. Nine lame duck reactors remain in operation today, but have announced plans for early retirement. (Five such announcements came in 216). With much more of the US fleet still in the red, we investigate Byron, Davis Besse, Three Mile Island, and Palisades as the plants that could be next to announce closure. Illinois and New York power markets may be hit hardest by retirements - each will lose three plants if regulators do not intervene. Only generators in New England look financially healthy due to the region s high power and capacity prices. Nicholas Steckler By the numbers Our average projection for nodal power prices at reactors in PJM is only $28.5/MWh in 217. For comparison, the US industry average cost of nuclear power generation was $35.5/MWh in 215. With a range subject to whether our four identified at-risk plants retire alongside the plants that have already announced, the US can expect to lose between 6 and 9TWh of annual nuclear power generation by 22. This will boost gas burn and carbon emissions by 1-2 Bcfd and MtCO 2/yr, spread across multiple regions of the US. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 1 of 16
2 Table 1: US nuclear plant levelized, pre-tax earnings estimates and projections, ($/MWh, real215) Plant Name Owner Region Capacity (MW) Diablo Canyon PG&E Calif ornia 2, Com anche Peak Energy Future Holdings ERCOT 2, S TX STP Nuclear Operating Co ERCOT 2, Callaw ay Ameren MISO 1, Ferm i DTE MISO 1, AR Nuclear Entergy MISO 1, Palisades Entergy MISO Clinton Exelon MISO 1, Duane Arnold NextEra MISO Pt Beach NextEra MISO 1, Monticello Xcel MISO Prairie Island Xcel MISO 1, Millstone Dominon New England 2, Pilgrim Entergy New England Seabrook NextEra New England 1, Nine Mile Pt Exelon New York 1, Fitzpatrick Entergy New York Indian Pt 2 Entergy New York 2, Indian Pt 3 Entergy New York 2, Ginna Exelon New York Cook AEP PJM 2, N Anna Dominion PJM 1, Surry Dominion PJM 1, Calvert Cliffs EDF PJM 1, Mil Island Exelon PJM Braidw ood Exelon PJM 2, Byron Exelon PJM 2, Dresden Exelon PJM 1, LaSalle Exelon PJM 2, Lim erick Exelon PJM 2, Oyster Creek Exelon PJM Peach Bottom Exelon PJM 2, Quad Cities Exelon PJM 1, Beaver Valley FirstEnergy PJM 1, Davis Besse FirstEnergy PJM Perry FirstEnergy PJM 1, Susquehanna PPL PJM 2, Hope Creek PSEG PJM 1, Salem PSEG PJM 2, Cataw ba Duke Southeast 2, Grand Gulf Entergy Southeast 1, Robinson Duke Southeast Rvr Bend Entergy Southeast Sequoyah Tennessee Valley Authority Southeast 2, Waterford Entergy Southeast 1, Watts Bar Tennessee Valley Authority Southeast 1, Palo Verde Pinnacle West Capital Southw est 3, Cooper Nebraska Public Pow er District SPP Fort Calhoun Omaha Public Pow er District SPP Wolf Creek Wolf Creek Nuclear Optg Corp SPP 1, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates, Illinois Commerce Commission Notes: List includes all reactors in deregulated regions plus reactors in regulated regions that have pricing information for potential sales into deregulated regions. For example, some Southeastern plants may sell into PJM or MISO markets. One plant may have multiple reactors. Profitability estimate does not represent actual revenues. See Excel Data Download for a full table of assumptions and full reactor list. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 2 of 16
3 1. ROUND-UP OF RECENT REACTOR RETIREMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS Wholesale power prices have fallen rapidly throughout the US. Merchant nuclear power plants are among the hardest hit especially in deregulated parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Nuclear plant owners have warned regulators of poor economics for at least three years now, blaming cheap natural gas and renewable energy penetration for the depression of prices. When gas and power prices hit record lows in the first half of 216, plant owners responded by furthering their agendas to close reactors in the MISO, NYISO, PJM, ISO-NE and SPP power regions. The number of reactors on the list of announcements set to retire prematurely has doubled since 215 there are now 8,954MW slated for early retirement. Table 2: Nuclear reactors with announced intent to retire Reactor Size (MW) Region State Owner Age (yr) Retirement date Gas burn equivalent (Bcfd) Clinton 1,65 MISO IL Exelon 29 June Quad Cities 1,819 PJM IL Exelon 44 June Oyster Creek 68 PJM PA Exelon Nine Mile Point New York NY Exelon 47 March Ginna 582 New York NY Exelon Fitzpatrick 847 New York NY Entergy 4 January Pilgrim 677 New England MA Entergy 44 June Diablo Canyon 2,24 California CA PG&E Fort Calhoun 479 SPP NE Omaha Public Power District 43 December Total 8, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Notes: Plants may have multiple reactors. Average reactor age shown. Gas burn assumes 7MMBtu/MWh Our assessment of the financial health of retiring reactors The generators in Table 2 claim to be unprofitable, with the current outlook for power (and capacity) prices allegedly more grim than any factor on the cost side. Except a few plants citing high costs (Oyster Creek and Fort Calhoun), power prices are purportedly the most pressing factor on nuclear economics. With forward electricity prices looking fairly flat (ie. not promising the uptick necessary to cover long-run operating costs), generators simply announced intentions to retire struggling units, with closure dates often coinciding with the next fuelling cycle or the roll-off date of their powerpurchase agreements (PPAs). Short of a stark and unexpected rebound in natural gas prices, we see the fate of these particular plants as largely a policy issue of whether or not states will decide to offer subsidies to bring them to breakeven. See US nuclear takes one step forward eight steps back for more commentary on these policy details. In Figure 3 below, we estimate the profitability of plants that have announced intent to retire. 1 The estimate includes our projections for forward LMPs, capacity prices, and costs, as detailed in Section 2. Our analysis corroborates the owner s claims that each of these retiring units look to be in the red, apart from Pilgrim. 2 1 Profitability = realized energy price + capacity price generation cost estimate. 2 Despite the seemingly high power + capacity prices, Entergy has still made the decision to retire its Pilgrim reactor in Massachusetts citing policy dissonance and increasing operation costs. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 3 of 16
4 Figure 3: Pre-tax earnings estimates and projections for reactors that have recently announced retirement (based on LMP, capacity payment and cost estimates) ($/MWh real 215USD) 3 2 Pilgrim Ginna 1-1 Clinton Nine Mile Pt Oyster Creek Quad Cities Fitzpatrick Source: Bloomberg Terminal functions ISO<GO> and NRCR<GO>, Illinois Commerce Commission, PJM, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates. Notes: Nodal futures were constructed using hub futures and the historic spread of node against the hub. Does not represent actual profits. See Data Download for full profitability estimate Ominous signs for remaining reactors For the most part, the impaired reactors listed in Table 2 are not special cases amongst the US nuclear fleet; rather, their retirement announcements are symptomatic and foretelling of broader, US-wide economics that affect nearly all reactors exposed to wholesale prices. Unless we see a dramatic uptick in wholesale power prices, capacity prices or clean energy incentives (inclusive of nuclear), we expect more retirement announcements in the coming months and years. The list of plants in Table 1 that look to be in the money through 22 is very short. Only the Indian Point, Millstone and Seabrook reactors are undoubtedly profitable under current forward curves. What makes these plants special is exceptionally strong power and capacity prices in their respective regions. For example, the outlook for LMPs in New England in 218 is estimated to average above $38/MWh, with levelized capacity payments weighing in around $23/MWh. These are some of the highest power and capacity prices in the country, leading to estimated levelized earnings before tax in the $9-15/MWh range. In contrast, the estimate for most other US plants has dropped steeply from being positive in 214 to between $5/MWh and $15/MWh short of breaking even in 217. Plants like Ginna, Fitzpatrick, and Nine Mile Point One are still hanging on to the possibility of a bailout from New York state regulators, who will certainly be estimating these revenues shortfalls, in order to compare with the subsidies paid out to renewable energy in RPS programs. For comparison, the final solicitation of the NY RPS program paid a weighted average $25/MWh for Main Tier resources such as wind and solar power. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 4 of 16
5 2. METHODOLOGY: MEASURING NUCLEAR PROFITABILITY In a fleet-wide analysis of locational marginal electricity prices (LMPs) and capacity payments, we developed a view on the financial health of the all of the nuclear reactors in deregulated regions of the US (Table 1). Additionally, our list include some reactors in regulated regions, where wholesale pricing information is available. 3 Over half of the 1GW US nuclear fleet is facing negative earnings over the time period, according to the current outlook for power prices (Figure 1). Units appearing negative (in the red) are in locations where LMPs and capacity revenues are not strong enough to cover estimated longrun operating costs. The only units that will remain profitable in the next several years are those in New England as well as the New York Indian Point reactor outside New York City. New England in particular has some of the highest LMPs and capacity prices in the country. The next healthiest region is PJM, where some plants may break even by a narrow margin, thanks to high- to mid-range capacity revenues, but hindered by low LMPs. Plants in MISO and ERCOT look to be in the worst conditions as they face both low LMPs and low capacity prices. Figure 4 below compares the ranges and averages of nuclear plant profitability across the deregulated US power regions. Figure 4: Range of average profitability of reactors by region over period ($/MWh, real215) Average New England New York California PJM ERCOT MISO SPP Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 3 The distinction is important because regulated power plants can generally remain operable by rate-basing costs even while running at an economic loss; plants in deregulated regions are more exposed to wholesale prices, and are generally more at risk of retirement than their regulated counterparts. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 5 of 16
6 2.1. Power prices Historical power prices Since 214, regional power prices have fallen across the US. (The plunge owes mostly to falling natural gas prices, but other structural, price-suppressing factors are afoot, as discussed in our April 216 Research Note: A eulogy for US wholesale power prices.) Whereas much attention is paid to falling benchmark hub prices, this note digs more granularly into the nodal prices realized by individual plants. Often nodal prices differ materially from the nearest benchmark hub price; this level of specificity (using nodal rather than hub-level prices) affords us a more precise understanding of the financial health of individual reactors. For example, reactors such as Clinton and Quad Cities have historically experienced severe transmission congestion, resulting in nodal LMP s that are on average $6-8/MWh lower than prices at the nearby Northern Illinois hub price. Figure 5 and Figure 6 below show the historical prices in the form of monthly averages of dayahead and real-time LMPs at the exact locations of the nuclear reactors that have announced plans to retire. 4 Figure 5: Historic and projected monthly average LMPs at retiring reactors, PJM and MISO Figure 6: Historic and projected monthly average LMPs at retiring reactors, NYISO and ISO-NE ($/MWh real 215USD) 14 ($/MWh real 215USD) Oyster Creek 1 Quad Cities 1 Clinton Pilgrim 1 Nine Mile Pt 1 Ginna 1 Fitzpatrick Source: Bloomberg Terminal functions ISO<GO> and NRCR<GO>, Illinois Commerce Commission, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates Note Quad Cities and Oyster Creek are day-ahead, Clinton is real-time. Nodal futures were constructed using hub futures and the historic spread of node against the hub. Ginna LMP is day-ahead, the others are real-time. Nine Mile price curve is virtually identical to that of Fitzpatrick, as the reactors are physically side-by-side. 4 Locational Marginal Price (LMP) = energy price + congestion charge + losses. LMP is synonymous with nodal price. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 6 of 16
7 Power price projections Future power prices used in this analysis are rooted in Bloomberg Terminal Fair Value Curves 5, which capture market-traded sentiment about where power prices are heading. Spot prices were in steep decline in early 216, but long-dated power futures have shown some recent signs of recovery, with Calendar Year 217 contracts rising with the improving outlook for natural gas. Nuclear generators across the US hope that gas (and power) prices will continue their rally, but our Fair Value Curves anticipating flat-lining prices beyond 217. One quick methodological note: whereas our Fair Value Curves describe hub-level futures prices, this analysis was done at the nodal level. To bridge this data gap we assumed a static future spread between nodal and hub-level prices. Power purchase agreements (PPAs) Some nuclear plants operate on a merchant basis, in which case we can measure their profits precisely by tracking nodal LMPs; many other plants have hedged their power price exposure through a series of PPAs that may be above or below wholesale market value at any given time. Ultimately, this report fails to capture the earnings impacts of reactors price hedges, though we think this is a non-issue over the long term. The reasons are (i) power price hedges are intended to reflect the futures curve at the time of signing, so the spread in some cases is minimal; and (ii) nuclear PPAs are typically fairly short in duration (1-3 years), so even those reactors with PPAs will be exposed to incumbent market realities by the end of the decade. In fact, Exelon stated in its Q1 216 SEC filings 6 that across its entire US generation fleet (all technologies), the percentage of future generation that is hedged will drop from above 95% to below 4% by 218, greatly increasing the company s exposure to these lower market prices. At the point that these plants become unhedged, they are very likely to enter another PPA that will reflect market prices, continuing the cycle of rolling on and off of hedge contracts. Power and gas prices are currently on their way up from record lows in early 216. Futures prices for calendar year 218 have risen $1-3/MWh in PJM and MISO and $6/MWh in ERCOT since hitting record lows in March. Importantly for nuclear power generators, the slight rebound is an upside for revenues through better power market or PPA prices, although, that rebound might not be strong enough for plants that are rolling off PPA s that were signed at and accustomed to prices Capacity prices Capacity prices are standby payments meant to reward generators for their contribution to grid reliability. Their importance varies by region. In New England, capacity payments represent almost 25% of nuclear reactors future revenues; meanwhile in ERCOT s energy-only market capacity prices are non-existent. For this analysis, we mapped each reactor to its corresponding capacity zone, granted its capacity payments equal to the current forward prices (unless otherwise noted 7 ), and assumed that future capacity payments would match the most recent capacity auction value, where applicable. See Data Download for full capacity payment assumptions for each plant. 5 For more details on Bloomberg Fair Value Curves, see BNEF Data Viewer 6 Exelon May 216 Company Filing Q1 216 Earnings Release Slides pg Plants Three Mile Island, Byron, Oyster Creek and Quad Cities are assumed to have failed to clear at least one forward year of capacity auctions. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 7 of 16
8 2.3. Costs Our estimates of plant profitability include cost estimates for total generation cost of existing reactors. These generation costs include expenditures on fuel, operations and maintenance, and CAPEX injections that go into the plants for repairs. For the Exelon fleet, generation cost estimates were obtained from a study performed by the state of Illinois. 8 All other plants generation costs were based on US industry average costs presented by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) for UBS 9. The industry average cost of generation across the US nuclear fleet was $35.5/MWh in 215, but the NEI points out a distinct difference in the average for single-unit plants ( orphans ) versus multi-unit sites, costs of $44.52/MWh and $32.9/MWh respectively. Of the nine plants that have announced plans for retirement, six of them are single-unit plants and eight of them are in deregulated regions. This suggests that the deregulated orphans are much more likely candidates for early retirements because of their inability to rate-base their significantly higher per-mwh generation costs. 8 Potential nuclear power plant closings in Illinois Getting nuclear on nuclear costs - Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 8 of 16
9 3. MARKET IMPLICATIONS 1. Policy At this point, we fully expect the announced reactors to retire if they do not receive any form of policy support from state governments. There seems to be hope left only for Ginna and Nine Mile Point 1 in New York state, where the Public Service Commission (PSC) is scrambling to expedite the creation of the new Clean Energy Standard in a way that is fair to all parties and makes sense for emissions goals. The PSC has stated that the plan will be finalized by September and will include dedicated subsidies (ZECs) for nuclear plants. With new transmission expansions in the state still several years away from completion, it is likely that the regulator will save at least one of these reactors for both sustainability and grid reliability reasons. Other states have less chance of putting something together in time before Exelon and FirstEnergy pull the plugs on their plants Illinois failed to pass pro-nuclear legislation in May and the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio was stopped by FERC when it tried to allow contractual subsidies for FirstEnergy and AEP. The fact that FirstEnergy and AEP almost got out-of-market assistance ignited a face-off between Exelon/Dynegy and FirstEnergy/AEP - the former preferring low-carbon incentives, the latter preferring out-of-market PPAs, and all of them desperate for assistance combatting low power prices in general. For more details on the policy developments in Illinois, Ohio, and New York, see US nuclear takes one step forward, eight steps back[nw1] for a deeper look into the nuclear policy discussion in these states. 2. Gas burn Any nuclear retirements executed in the next few years will lead to an uptick in gas burn for power generation. All but one of the reactors on our announced list (Section 1) state retirement dates in 219 or earlier. Losing these 6,714MW of capacity by 219 would create a significant displacement in US power generation, increasing natural gas burn by approximately 1Bcfd nationwide. 1 Because the announced reactors are spread across multiple regions, the effect of the uptick is likely to be less impactful on the gas markets. The only exception is if policy assistance fails to save the upstate New York reactors the resulting increase in gas burn from the closure of all of the upstate New York reactors would be an uptick of.5bcfd in the region by 217. We anticipate that this figure will be lower because for both emissions and reliability reasons, it seems unlikely that New York regulators would allow closure of almost all of the upstate reactors. More significant impact on gas burn is possible in the event that any of the reactors on our watchlist (see Section 4) retire as well, adding to the displacement from already announced plants. If Byron were to retire by 217, the impact of the three total plant retirements in Illinois would be an increase in gas burn of approximately.78bcfd. If Three Mile Island were to retire alongside Oyster Creek in eastern PJM, the combined gas burn uptick would be about.2bcfd. 1 Assumes CCGT heat rate 7MMBtu/MWh and a nuclear reactor capacity factor of 9% Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 9 of 16
10 3.3. Emissions Because lost nuclear power generation will likely be replaced with gas burn, the retirement of the nine plants in our announced list would increase total US power sector emissions by about 3.4MtCO2 per year. 11 Just the California Diablo Canyon closure would increase that state s emissions by over 7.38MtCO2 per year if it were to be replaced entirely by gas generation, although PG&E plans to fill the gap with energy efficiency and renewables. In Illinois, the closure of Clinton and Quad Cities will increase the state s emissions by over 1 MtCO2 per year. The effects of these closures on Clean Power Plan compliance would be significant. For an idea of scale, California and Illinois have 23 mass targets of 44MtCO2 and 6MtCO2 respectively (see BNEF EPA Clean Power Plan). Other states with nuclear reactors would feel similar impacts in trying to comply with the Plan. Figure 2 at the start of this report shows the equivalent impact on gas burn and emissions of replacing different fractions of the entire US nuclear fleet. The figure highlights the range between the Plan to Retire (in black), which will lead to an almost certain increase, as well as further burn and emissions that could come from additional retirements of plants with profitability that we ve identified to be negative (in red). 11 Assumes.426tCO 2/MWh. Carbon intensity and heat rates actually vary by state. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 1 of 16
11 4. CASE STUDIES: FOUR REACTORS AT RISK In addition to the list of reactors that have already announced intent to shutter, this section builds four case studies of plants that are in the red that have yet to announce plans for retirement.of course, as other reactors retire, there will be an impact on energy and capacity prices in a way that benefits surviving generators. Regulators may also step in and stop certain closures for reliability or sustainability reasons. This section considers these factors alongside a profitability analysis of the plants that could soon be the next to join a wave of retirements: Table 3: Four plants that could be next to announce retirement Reactor Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Based on our estimates of future power prices, capacity prices, and generation costs, Davis Besse, Byron and Three Mile Island all look unprofitable through 22. These are plants that are likely to be unhedged in the coming years and may see negative profitability like we ve estimated below in Figure 7. A profitability estimate for Palisades is not included in the chart because Entergy holds a hedge for the plant to 222. Figure 7: Pre-tax earnings estimates and projections for Davis Besse, Byron, and Three Mile Island, (based on LMP, capacity payment and cost estimates) ($/MWh real215usd) 2 Capacity (MW) Region State Owner Age Prediction Gas burn equivalent (Bcfd) Davis Besse 894 PJM OH FirstEnergy 39 Spring Byron 23 PJM IL Exelon 31 June Three Mile Island 85 PJM PA Exelon 42 June Palisades 86 MISO MI Entergy 44 June , Davis Besse Three Mile Island Byron Source: Bloomberg Terminal functions ISO<GO> and NRCR<GO>, Illinois Commerce Commission, PJM, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates. Notes: Nodal futures were constructed using hub futures and the historic spread of node against the hub. Does not represent actual revenues. See Data Download for full profitability estimate calculation. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 11 of 16
12 4.1. Byron Byron is a 2,3MW nuclear power plant owned by Exelon in Northwest Illinois. Located more than 5 miles outside of Chicago, Byron has significant transmission congestion issues plaguing its economics similar to the cases of Clinton and Quad Cities. Effects of distance from load centers compounded with proximity to new wind farms have caused average prices at Byron to come in well below the PJM Northern Illinois hub price during certain times of the year they averaged $7/MWh lower than the regional Northern Illinois hub price in 215. We have constructed a forward curve for the node that follows the hub forward traded curve but deviates during months of historical congestion (Figure 8). The negative impacts of congestion at the node compound with the alreadylow hub forecast. The closure of the other Illinois reactors, Clinton and Quad Cities, is an upside on the overall hub price, but those closures southwest of Chicago will not relieve congestion near Byron. Figure 8: Monthly average LMP at Byron, ($/MWh real215usd) Source: Bloomberg Terminal function ISO<GO> and ticker PJM84W DA LMP 24AV Index. Note: Nodal futures were constructed using hub futures and the historic spread of node against the hub. PJM Northern IL Byron 1 Figure 9: Byron profitability estimate, ($/MWh real215) 8 Capacity payment 7 Power 6 Cost Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: See Data Download for full profitability estimate calculation. Apart from earning energy revenues, Byron is in the COMED zone of the PJM capacity market, where it typically earns payments of around $5/MWh ($12/MW-day, real 216USD). Auctions are held on a three-year forward basis and Byron has failed to clear both the 217/18 and 219/2 auctions. 12 Revenue, not cost, is the root of the poor economic outlook at Bryon. The plant itself is relatively new (31 years) with reported costs of generation that line up almost exactly with the Nuclear Energy Institute s industry averages $32.9/MWh; however estimated revenues look so low that the plant s profitability through 22 looks unattractive despite maintaining average generation costs (Figure 9) Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 12 of 16
13 The exact revenues at Byron are unknown, but an unhedged version of the plant doesn t look close to breaking even anytime this decade. If Exelon kept it open, it would be because of a favourable hedge or in anticipation of better days in the early 22 s. While it is hard to imagine the political fallouts of closing yet a third reactor in Illinois, we think that based on the numbers only, it looks very likely that this plant could begin to close in June 217, when the end of its current fuel cycle coincides with the time at which it no longer has capacity market obligation Three Mile Island Three Mile Island is another Exelon plant with an economic outlook that has been heavily impacted by a weak power forward curve. The single-unit plant is located in south-central Pennsylvania, near the Marcellus Shale, where power prices have been in steep decline resulting from rapid growth in gas-fired generation. Unlike Byron, Three Mile Island does not have congestion problems on the revenue side; instead, most of the region faces a bleak power forward curve. The 42 year-old, 85MW reactor has reported generation costs of $4/MWh, which is below the industry average $44.5/MWh for single-units. In May, Exelon announced that Three Mile Island failed to clear the 219/2 PJM capacity auction, the second consecutive year that the plant has failed to clear the forward auction. This leaves the plant committed only until May 218. Without those capacity payments, it is very unlikely that Three Mile Island could make up its $4/MWh generation cost with energy market revenues alone. We do expect this plant to cease operation around June 218 when its capacity market obligation terminates. Figure 1: Average monthly LMP at Three Mile Island ($/MWh real215) 12 Figure 11: Three Mile Island profitability estimate, ($/MWh real215) 12 1 Three Mile Island PJM METED 1 Capacity payment Power 8 8 Cost Source: Bloomberg Terminal function ISO<GO> and ticker PJMH3W DA LMP 24AV Index. Note: Nodal futures were constructed using hub futures and the historic spread of node against the hub Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: See Data Download for full profitability estimate calculation. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 13 of 16
14 4.3. Davis Besse Davis Besse is a 39-year-old, single-unit, 894MW reactor in Northern Ohio. The major piece of information that makes us suspecting of a closure at Davis Besse is the FERC s rejection of the Powering Ohio s Progress plan from FirstEnergy to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) for contractual offtake of its power at an uplifted rate (see BNEF note US nuclear take ones step forward, eight steps back). Although the FERC ultimately stymied the deal, the PUCO was ready to allow it this makes us believe that the economic situation is quite poor at the plant. Our estimate of profitability (Figure 13) for Davis Besse reveals that it is likely suffering badly through the period. We project Davis Besse LMPs to average well-below the average cost reported by NEI for a single-unit site ($44/MWh). Davis Besse has been one of the most accidentprone reactors in the country giving us reason to think that the costs are at least as high as the industry average. PJM capacity payments are locked-in through 22, meaning there is no potential upside in capacity revenues until post-22. In order to become profitable, Davis Besse would need an upswing in the power forward curve or a new FERC-approved contractual offtake agreement with the PUCO. The plant s operating license is already renewed to 237 meaning it could try to ride out the lower power prices, but we are hesitant to believe that it would last that long under negative profitability. We believe that Davis Besse could retire prematurely at the end of its current fuel cycle in Spring 218 if it finds a way to release its remaining capacity market commitments. Figure 12: Average monthly LMP at Davis Besse, ($/MWh real215) Davis Besse 1 PJM AEP (Dayton) Source: Source: Bloomberg Terminal function ISO<GO> and ticker PJM9P DA LMP 24AV Index. Note: Nodal futures were constructed using hub futures and the historic spread of node against the hub. Figure 13: Davis Besse profitability estimate, ($/MWh real215) 1 9 Capacity payment 8 Power 7 Cost Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: See Data Download for full profitability estimate calculation. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 14 of 16
15 4.4. Palisades Palisades is a 44 year old, 86MW, single-unit plant in southwest Michigan, where MISO power prices have dipped to record lows in 216. Fortunately for the owner Entergy, the plant s output was hedged with Consumers Energy through 222. Analysis by UBS suggests that despite the hedge (thought to be above $4/MWh), both Palisades and Consumers Energy could benefit from the early retirement of Palisades. If this estimate is true, Consumers Energy is locked in at a price of almost double the market value of power at MISO Michigan Hub (see Figure 14). If the current PPA could be restructured, Consumers Energy might be able to pay a lower price and Entergy could retire Palisades, replacing its generation with purchases from the spot market instead, subsequently saving on generation costs. If Entergy generation costs reflect the NEI industry average for single-unit reactors, then replacing Palisades generation with market-purchased power could cut costs of generation from about $44/MWh to well under $3/MWh (see forward curve in Figure 14). Capacity revenues would be lost with the plant s retirement, but MISO capacity payments for Palisades are likely less than $3/MWh, much less lucrative than the potential cost savings of shutting the plant. Unlike PJM s three-year forward auctions, MISO capacity commitment is done on a one-year forward basis, meaning that Palisades could shut as early as June 217. Figure 14: Average monthly real-time LMP at Palisades ($/MWh real215) MISO Michigan Hub Palisades Source: Bloomberg Terminal function ISO<GO> and ticker MIS3B7 5M LMP 24AV Index. Note: Nodal futures were constructed using hub futures and the historic spread of node against the hub. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 15 of 16
16 About Us Contact details Nicholas Steckler Chris Gadomski William Nelson Analyst, NA Power and Environmental Markets Head of Nuclear Analysis Head of Power, North America Copyright Bloomberg Finance L.P No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P. Disclaimer This service is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, in providing the service, believe that the information it uses comes from reliable sources, but do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information, which is subject to change without notice, and nothing in this document shall be construed as such a guarantee. The statements in this service reflect the current judgment of the authors of the relevant articles or features, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ( Bloomberg ). Bloomberg disclaims any liability arising from use of this document and/or its contents, and this service. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment or other strategy (e.g., whether or not to buy, sell, or hold an investment). The information available through this service is not based on consideration of a subscriber s individual circumstances and should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKETS, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS, BLOOMBERG.COM, BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE and NEW ENERGY FINANCE are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. or its subsidiaries. This service is provided by Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates. The data contained within this document, its contents and/or this service do not express an opinion on the future or projected value of any financial instrument and are not research recommendations (i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to buy, sell, hold, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest) or a recommendation as to an investment or other strategy. No aspect of this service is based on the consideration of a customer s individual circumstances. You should determine on your own whether you agree with the content of this document and any other data provided through this service. Employees involved in this service may hold positions in the companies covered by this service. Disclaimer notice on page 16 applies throughout. Page 16 of 16
Major Market Indicators 1 Commodity Current Week Last Four Weeks Last 52 Weeks Totals
Week of March 2 March 6, 215 Summary of Energy Market Developments Electricity peak prices dropped considerably in the eastern half of the U.S. last week and the March 4-5 snowstorms did not make up the
More informationDeregulation, Consolidation, and Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. Nuclear Power
ONLINE DATA APPENDIX Deregulation, Consolidation, and Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. Nuclear Power Lucas W. Davis UC Berkeley and NBER Catherine Wolfram UC Berkeley and NBER February 2012 This study is
More informationPOLICY ISSUE (INFORMATION)
POLICY ISSUE (INFORMATION) October 26, 2011 SECY-11-0149 FOR: FROM: SUBJECT: The Commissioners Eric J. Leeds, Director Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation SUMMARY FINDINGS RESULTING FROM THE STAFF REVIEW
More informationNew York Seeks To Redesign Compensation To Keep Nuclear Plants Alive
RESEARCH North America Alternative Energy Nuclear Power New York Seeks To Redesign Compensation To Keep Nuclear Plants Alive Continued Nuclear Generation Deemed Crucial to Reduce Emissions February 29,
More informationPerspective on Trends in U.S. Electricity Markets and Nuclear Power Plant Shutdowns. September 2013
Perspective on Trends in U.S. Electricity Markets and Nuclear Power Plant Shutdowns September 2013 Nuclear Plant Shutdowns: The Situation Five reactors shut down Four in 2013 One at the end of 2014 Crystal
More informationHow To Understand The Cme Group
The Evolution of the CME Group Electricity Complex Bradford G. Leach Director, Energy Research and Product Development CME Group Harvard Electricity Policy Group Sixty-Sixth Plenary Session March 9, 2012
More informationHow extending the investment tax credit would affect US solar build
Contents NATIONAL SOLAR BUILD FORECAST...1 UTILITY-SCALE...3 RESIDENTIAL...3 COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL... How extending the investment tax credit would affect US solar build APPLIED RESEARCH SOLAR ENERGY
More informationSECTION 1. PREAMBLE 3 SECTION 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 ABOUT US 6
CONTENTS SECTION 1. PREAMBLE 3 SECTION 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 ABOUT US 6 Disclaimer notice on page 8 applies throughout. Page 2 SECTION 1. PREAMBLE The New Energy Outlook (NEO) is Bloomberg New Energy
More informationImpact of Coal Plant Retirements on the Capacity and Energy Market in PJM
Impact of Coal Plant Retirements on the Capacity and Energy Market in PJM by Neil Copeland Debashis Bose Black & Veatch INTRODUCTION It has recently been observed that U.S. electricity providers are announcing
More informationRetail Electric Rates
Retail Electric Rates in Deregulated and Regulated States: Update Published April 2016 2451 Crystal Dr. Arlington, VA 22202 202.467.2900 www.publicpower.org Retail Electric Rates in Deregulated and Regulated
More informationOwners of Nuclear Power Plants
NUREG/CR-6500, Rev. 1 ORNL/TM-13297/R1 Owners of Nuclear Power Plants Prepared by R. L. Reid, V. S. White Oak Ridge National Laboratory Prepared for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.
More informationNew York s Upstate Nuclear Power Plants Contribution to the State Economy
New York s Upstate Nuclear Power Plants Contribution to the State Economy PREPARED FOR New York State IBEW Utility Labor Council Rochester Building and Construction Trades Council Central and Northern
More informationIncreasing Costs in Electric Markets
Increasing Costs in Electric Markets Item No.: A-3A June 19, 2008 Mr. Chairman and Commissioners, good morning. I am here to present the Office of Enforcement s assessment of likely electricity costs in
More informationDirect Energy Business Monthly Webinar. Expressly for Channel Partners February 25, 2016
Direct Energy Business Monthly Webinar Expressly for Channel Partners February 25, 2016 Webinar Agenda Tim Bigler, Sr. Market Strategist Commodity Market Update Beau Gjerdingen, Meteorologist Spring weather
More informationa GAO-04-654 GAO NUCLEAR REGULATION NRC s Liability Insurance Requirements for Nuclear Power Plants Owned by Limited Liability Companies
GAO United States General Accounting Office Report to Congressional Requesters May 2004 NUCLEAR REGULATION NRC s Liability Insurance Requirements for Nuclear Power Plants Owned by Limited Liability Companies
More informationAll. Mailing List of Domestic Nuclear Utilities. ", Plant.. I Address Arkansas Nuclear One, Units 1 and 2
Mailing List of Domestic Nuclear Utilities ", Plant.. I Address Arkansas Nuclear One, Units 1 and 2 Vice President, Operations Arkansas Nuclear One Entergy Operations, Inc. 1448 S.R. 333 Russellville,
More information2014 Retail Electric Rates. in Deregulated and Regulated States
2014 Retail Electric Rates in Deregulated and Regulated States Published April 2015 2014 Retail Electric Rates in Deregulated and Regulated States Prepared by Paul Zummo, Manager, Policy Research and Analysis
More informationUNITED STATES OF AMERICA BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION ) Coordination Between Natural Gas ) Docket No. AD12-12-000 And Electricity Markets ) ) COMMENTS OF DOMINION RESOURCES SERVICES,
More informationPJM Electric Market. PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Market Oversight www.ferc.
PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points Page 1 of 14 PJM Electric Market Source: Velocity Suite Intelligent Map Updated August 23, 21 145 PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points Page 2 of
More informationMedium-term outlook for US power: 2015 = deepest de-carbonization ever
1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1,514 1,473 1,39 1,65 8 April 15 Contents 1. RENEWABLES: TEMPORARY BOOM.... COAL RETIREMENTS: BEGINNING OF THE END...3
More informationFixed Income Investor Meeting
Fixed Income Investor Meeting James F. Pearson Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer NYSE, New York, NY May 20, 2015 Forward-Looking Statement Forward-Looking Statements: This Presentation
More informationWinter 2013-14 Energy Market Assessment Report to the Commission
Winter 2013-14 Energy Market Assessment Report to the Commission Docket No. AD06-3-000 October 2013 Disclaimer: The matters presented in this staff report do not necessarily represent the views of the
More informationGLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 2013
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 213 FACT PACK GUY TURNER HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND COMMODITIES APRIL 26, 213 GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 APRIL 213 1 INTRODUCTION This year s Global Renewable
More informationGoogle s Green PPAs: What, How, and Why
September 17, 2013 Revision 3 (initially published April 21, 2011) Google s Green PPAs: What, How, and Why Table of Contents Introduction... 1 Electrons, markets, the art of the possible... 1 Meeting our
More informationState Clean Energy Fund Support for Renewable Energy Projects
State Clean Energy Fund Support for Renewable Energy Projects Key Findings from the 2009 CESA National Database Project Deployment Results from State Renewable Energy Program Activities: 2009 Annual and
More informationNew ISO-NE Return on Equity Rate Could Impact Future Transmission Decisions
RESEARCH North America Power and Utilities Energy Efficiency New ISO-NE Return on Equity Rate Could Impact Future Transmission Decisions Continued Transmission Investments Key to Electric Grid Reliability
More informationPJM LMP Market Overview
PJM LMP Market Overview Andrew Ott Senior Vice President, Markets June 10, 2010 PJM as Part of the Eastern Interconnection 6,038 substations KEY STATISTICS PJM member companies 600+ millions of people
More informationTax Credit Extension: Impact on Renewables Investment and Emissions Outcomes
CONCORD, MA - WASHINGTON, DC 47 Junction Square Drive Concord, MA 01742 978-369-5533 www.mjbradley.com MJB&A Issue Brief March 7, 2016 Tax Credit Extension: Impact on Renewables Investment and Emissions
More informationPolar Vortex Energy Pricing Implications Commercial Opportunities and System Reliability
% Increase on previous day W H I T E P A P E R Polar Vortex Energy Pricing Implications Commercial Opportunities and System Reliability By Judah Rose, Shanthi Muthiah, Frank Brock, John Karp, and Trishagni
More informationERCOT Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan Final Rule Update
ERCOT Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan Final Rule Update ERCOT Public October 16, 2015 ERCOT Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan Final Rule Update In August 2015, the U.S. Environmental
More informationOhio Energy. Workshop HH. Understanding & Managing Your Risks A Real Time Approach for Long-Term Power Purchases
Ohio Energy Workshop HH Understanding & Managing Your Risks A Real Time Approach for Long-Term Power Purchases Thursday, February 26, 2015 2 p.m. to 3:15 p.m. Biographical Information Dave Laipple, Regional
More informationCalifornia Greenhouse Gas Cap and Generation Variable Costs
California Greenhouse Gas Cap and Generation Variable Costs White Paper Department of Market Monitoring February 10, 2012 Copyright 2012 California ISO Contents Introduction... 3 California s greenhouse
More informationIAMU Natural Gas Pricing Impact to the Iowa Electric Power Generator 10/2/13 Jim Borowicz Key Energy Services, LLC
IAMU Natural Gas Pricing Impact to the Iowa Electric Power Generator 10/2/13 Jim Borowicz Key Energy Services, LLC Natural Gas Pricing Supply Transportation Capacity How Natural Gas is Priced Futures Contract
More informationWhy Coal Plants Retire: Power Market Fundamentals as of 2012
Why Coal Plants Retire: Power Market Fundamentals as of 2012 Susan F. Tierney, Ph.D. Analysis Group, Inc. February 16, 2012* Correction: pp. 8 9 February 24, 2012 Why Coal Plants Retire: Power Market Fundamentals
More informationRetail Electric Rates in Deregulated and Regulated States: A Ten Year Comparison
Retail Electric Rates in Deregulated and Regulated States: A Ten Year Comparison Published March 2008 1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20009-5715 202/467-2900 www.appanet.org Retail Electric
More informationAddressing Barriers to Renewable Energy Procurement. In association with the EPA Green Power Partnership
Addressing Barriers to Renewable Energy Procurement In association with the EPA Green Power Partnership September 19, 2012 CORPORATE GOALS Corporations are increasingly interested renewable energy. The
More informationContracts for Difference - the new support regime for low carbon generation
Contracts for Difference - the new support regime for low carbon generation James Taylor Raj Bavishi 11 November 2014 UK Incentive Regimes Small scale Feed in Tariffs and the Renewables Obligations have
More informationNew York s Transmission Challenges and Opportunities: An Overview
New York s Transmission Challenges and Opportunities: An Overview By: Dr. Matthew Cordaro 2012 is shaping up to be the year of the grid. Governor Cuomo has proposed an energy highway aimed at finding ways
More informationSelling Renewable Energy in Michigan. Julie Baldwin Michigan Public Service Commission Michigan Wind Conference 2009 March 3, 2009
Selling Renewable Energy in Michigan Julie Baldwin Michigan Public Service Commission Michigan Wind Conference 2009 March 3, 2009 Michigan Public Service Commission Three Governor-appointed Commissioners
More informationEPA s Clean Power Plan: 50 chefs stir the pot
Contents 1. WHAT EPA PROPOSED..2 2. WHAT IT MEANS...2 3. WHAT TO EXPECT...4 APPENDICES...5 EPA s Clean Power Plan: 50 chefs stir the pot In its ground-breaking Clean Power Plan released 2 June, the US
More informationINDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATORS (VI + Access Rules vs. ISO vs. ITSO)
INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATORS (VI + Access Rules vs. ISO vs. ITSO) Paul L. Joskow September 28, 2007 ALTERNATIVE SYSTEM OPERATOR MODELS System operator (SO) is vertically integrated utility (G+T) Functional
More informationMaryland Nuclear Power Plant s Contribution to the State Economy
Maryland Nuclear Power Plant s Contribution to the State Economy PREPARED FOR PREPARED BY Mark Berkman, Ph.D. Dean Murphy, Ph.D. September 2015 This report was prepared for Nuclear Matters. All results
More informationFIGHT, FLIGHT OR ADAPT: HOW UTILITIES ARE RESPONDING TO PV & STORAGE
16 July 2015 FIGHT, FLIGHT OR ADAPT: HOW UTILITIES ARE RESPONDING TO PV & STORAGE Australian Clean Energy Summit Hugh Bromley PRODUCTS TO HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE OF ENERGY Solar Wind Other Renewables
More informationWorkshop B. 11:15 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.
Workshop B Advanced Energy Management Tools: Benefitting from the Competitive Electricity Marketplace Beyond the Fixed Rate & Key Issues to Understand when Comparing Electricity Quotes 11:15 a.m. to 12:30
More informationH1 2014 LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY - PV
H1 2014 LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY - PV JENNY CHASE 4 FEBRUARY 2014 LCOE OF PV, FEBRUARY 2014 1 PV EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976-2013 (2013 $/W) 100 Cost per W (2013 $) 1976 10 1985 2003 2006 1 2012 2013 Q3
More informationConsumer Cost Effectiveness of CO 2 Mitigation Policies in Restructured Electricity Markets. Jared Moore and Jay Apt.
Consumer Cost Effectiveness of CO 2 Mitigation Policies in Restructured Electricity Markets Jared Moore and Jay Apt Supporting Data Consumer Cost Effectiveness of CO 2 Mitigation Policies in Restructured
More informationForatom event 29 April 2015
Foratom event 29 April 2015 New nuclear in the UK and Electricity Market Reform Colin Parker Head of European Liaison - EDF Energy 1 April 2015 EDF Energy plc. All rights reserved. EDF Energy A UK energy
More informationImplications of Technology Availability and Cost on Clean Power Plan Compliance Costs. Scott Bloomberg Vice President
Implications of Technology Availability and Cost on Clean Power Plan Compliance Costs Scott Bloomberg Vice President SBCA 2015 Conference, Washington, DC March 20, 2015 Abstract In this presentation, I
More informationPJM Overview and Wholesale Power Markets. John Gdowik PJM Member Relations
PJM Overview and Wholesale Power Markets John Gdowik PJM Member Relations PJM s Role Ensures the reliability of the high-voltage electric power system Coordinates and directs the operation of the region
More informationUtility Capital Expenditures
Utility Capital Expenditures Jean Reaves Rollins UPMG--Atlanta October 2007 Your Boss Is Wrong You Are In Fact Doing Twice the Work 750,000 Total Investor-Owned Utility Employment 1998-2006 (C Three Analysis)
More informationCarrie Cullen Hitt Vice President, State Affairs HEPG Natural Gas Impacts June 1, 2012
2012 SEIA 2012 SEIA Carrie Cullen Hitt Vice President, State Affairs HEPG Natural Gas Impacts June 1, 2012 2012 SEIA About SEIA Founded in 1974 U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy. 1,000 member
More informationEnergy Ventures Analysis 1901 N. Moore St. Arlington, VA 22209 (703) 276 8900
T H E I M P A C T O F E A R L Y C O A L R E T I R E M E N T S O N K E Y P O W E R M A R K E T S ISO = 46.6% Prepared for: National Mining Association Washington, DC Northwest = 41.3% MISO = 36.8% NYISO
More informationThe Impact of Fuel Costs on Electric Power Prices
The Impact of Fuel Costs on Electric Power Prices by Kenneth Rose 1 June 2007 1 Kenneth Rose is an independent consultant and a Senior Fellow with the Institute of Public Utilities (IPU) at Michigan State
More informationElectric Market National Overview
Electric Market Overview Electric Market National Overview 1122 Electric Market Overview: Generation Output and Temperatures Page 2 of 8 Weekly U.S. Electric Generation Output and Temperatures Electric
More informationTransmission Leadership. Teresa Mogensen Vice President, Transmission
Transmission Leadership Teresa Mogensen Vice President, Transmission 1 Safe Harbor This material contains forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties ies and assumptions.
More informationThe Materials Contained Are Property of GP Renewables & Trading, LLC and are considered proprietary. This is not for distribution.
The Materials Contained Are Property of GP Renewables & Trading, LLC and are considered proprietary. This is not for distribution. 1 Wholesale Power 101 Maximizing Asset Value & Minimizing Risk 2 Facts
More informationProcurement Category: Energy. Energy Market Forces: Friend or Foe?
Procurement Category: Energy Energy Market Forces: Friend or Foe? As dynamic energy pricing becomes more prevalent in the industry, multi-site organizations are presented with new challenges, as well as
More informationHigh Natural Gas Prices and the Updated Market For CHP
High Natural Gas Prices and the Updated Market For CHP World Energy Engineering Congress Paul Lemar, President E.J. Honton, Director Resource Dynamics Corporation 8605 Westwood Center Drive Vienna, Virginia
More informationBusiness Risks and Opportunities Related to Climate Change. Helen A. Howes Vice President, EH&S Exelon Corporation
0 Business Risks and Opportunities Related to Climate Change Helen A. Howes Vice President, EH&S Exelon Corporation Presentation Outline Exelon Background Position on Climate Change Legislation Voluntary
More informationDistributed Generation: Frequently Asked Questions
Distributed Generation: Frequently Asked Questions 1) What is distributed generation (DG)? Generating technologies located close to where the electricity is being used that are connected to the electric
More informationMichigan Nuclear Power Plants Contribution to the State Economy
Michigan Nuclear Power Plants Contribution to the State Economy PREPARED FOR PREPARED BY Mark Berkman, Ph.D. Dean Murphy, Ph.D. September 2015 This report was prepared for Nuclear Matters. All results
More informationThe Outlook for Nuclear Energy In a Competitive Electricity Business
1776 I STREET N.W. SUITE 400 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 202.739.8000 The Outlook for Nuclear Energy In a Competitive Electricity Business Executive Summary: Nuclear Units Competitive, Profitable in Deregulated
More informationPerformance Metrics. For Independent System Operators And Regional Transmission Organizations
Performance Metrics For Independent System Operators And Regional Transmission Organizations A Report to Congress In Response to Recommendations of the United States Government Accountability Office April
More informationCO 2 Emissions from Electricity Generation and Imports in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative: 2010 Monitoring Report
CO 2 Emissions from Electricity Generation and Imports in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative: 2010 Monitoring Report August 6, 2012 1 This report was prepared on behalf of the states participating
More informationVectren Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Stakeholder Meeting 3 of 3. Discussion of Analysis Results September 24, 2014
Vectren Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Stakeholder Meeting 3 of 3 Discussion of Analysis Results September 24, 2014 IRP Timeline 2 1. Identify key objectives and metrics Complete 2. Gather information
More informationELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM (EMR) & THE ENERGY BILL INENCO OVERVIEW
ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM (EMR) & THE ENERGY BILL INENCO OVERVIEW February 2014 ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM (EMR) & THE ENERGY BILL The Energy Bill is the government s flagship energy policy. There have
More informationOn June 28, 2011, the Municipal Services Committee recommended that the City Council adopt the recommendations stated in the subject agenda report.
Agenda Report July 11, 2 0 11 TO: Honorable Mayor and City Council THROUGH: Municipal Services Committee (June 28, 2011) FROM: SUBJECT: Water and Power Department AUTHORIZE THE CITY MANAGER TO ENTER INTO
More informationUnlocking Electricity Prices:
Volume 2 A BidURenergy White Paper Unlocking Electricity Prices: A White Paper Exploring Price Determinants by: Mark Bookhagen, CEP pg. 2 Written by Mark Bookhagen, CEP Introduction In order to be classified
More informationWWW.AREA-ALLIANCE.ORG
WWW.AREA-ALLIANCE.ORG 2003 BLACKOUT HUMAN AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS $1 billion in lost economic activity in New York City alone 1 15 million New Yorkers left without power, many for 24+ hours 2 400,000 people
More informationWind Power and Electricity Markets
PO Box 2787 Reston, VA 20195 Phone: 703-860-5160 Fax: 703-860-3089 E-mail: info@uwig.org Web: www.uwig.org Wind Power and Electricity Markets A living summary of markets and market rules for wind energy
More informationAugust 25th, 2015. Worldwide ERC would like to thank today s sponsor: 2015 Worldwide ERC
August 25th, 2015 Worldwide ERC would like to thank today s sponsor: 2015 Worldwide ERC Shining Light on Solar Panels: Issues Faced when Acquiring Properties with this Feature 2015 Worldwide ERC WORLDWIDE
More informationThe Real Cost of Electrical Energy. Outline of Presentation
2 Outline of Presentation Data Sources Electricity Demand and Supply Cost to Meet Demand Profile Electricity Pricing Cost Impact of Dispatching Generation (Load Following) Simplifying Assumptions Electricity
More informationSandRidge Permian Trust Risk Outweighs Potential Reward of Higher Oil Prices
SandRidge Permian Trust Risk Outweighs Potential Reward of Higher Oil Prices SandRidge Permian Trust units (PER) fell from $4.50 on the ex-distribution date in November 2015 to an all-time low of $2.01
More information2014 State of the Markets
2014 State of the Markets Item No: A-3 March 19, 2015 Good morning Chairman and Commissioners. The Office of Enforcement s Division of Energy Market Oversight is pleased to present the 2014 State of the
More informationIberdrola USA-UIL merger. February 2015
Iberdrola USA-UIL merger February 2015 11 Legal Notice DISCLAIMER This document has been prepared exclusively for information purposes by Iberdrola, S.A. in connection with the proposed combination of
More informationOffice of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure Update For August 2012
For August 212 Natural Gas Highlights SG Resources Mississippi placed into service Cavern 4 of its Southern Pines Energy Center Project which will add 1 Bcf of working gas capacity to its facilities located
More informationEnergy and Consumer Impacts of EPA s Clean Power Plan. Prepared for the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity
Energy and Consumer Impacts of EPA s Clean Power Plan Prepared for the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity Contents Executive Summary Overview of the Clean Power Plan NERA Methodology Baseline
More informationAnticipating Compliance Strategies and Forecasts for Satisfying Clean Power Plan Requirements
Anticipating Compliance Strategies and Forecasts for Satisfying Clean Power Plan Requirements By Maggie Shober, Matthew Tanner, and Matt Drews CONTENTS Executive Summary 2 The Clean Power Plan 4 Litigation
More informationSOLAR PURCHASE POWER AGREEMENT (PPA) FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS. UPDATED: October 28, 2015
SOLAR PURCHASE POWER AGREEMENT (PPA) FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS UPDATED: October 28, 2015 1. Why Solar? Solar energy one of the cleanest and most abundant renewal energy sources available in Texas. Displacing
More informationRenewable Energy on Regional Power Grids Can Help States Meet Federal Carbon Standards
FACT SHEET Renewable Energy on Regional Power Grids Can Help States Meet Federal Carbon Standards In June 2014, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) used its authority under Section 111(d) of
More informationSchool District Snapshot
School District Snapshot Understanding Funding, Spending, and Saving Lots of numbers get tossed around when people talk about money and schools. So do lots of opinions. This article is intended to address
More informationHigh Prices Show Stresses in New England Natural Gas Delivery System
February 7, 2014 High Prices Show Stresses in New England Natural Gas Delivery System Abstract. Since 2012, limited supply from the Canaport and Everett liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals coupled with
More informationNRG Energy. Lack of Texas summer pressures guidance
08/10/12 09/10/12 10/10/12 11/10/12 12/10/12 01/10/13 02/10/13 03/10/13 04/10/13 05/10/13 06/10/13 07/10/13 UTILITIES & POWER Regulateds Market Weight Integrateds Market Underweight IPPs Market Overweight
More informationOffice of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure Update For February 2014
For February 24 Natural Gas Highlights CIG received authorization to place into service the remaining facilities to its High Plains 23 Expansion Project which will provide 225 MMcf/d of capacity to its
More informationNatural Gas and Electricity Coordination Experiences and Challenges
1 Natural Gas and Electricity Coordination Experiences and Challenges Challenges Facing the New England Power System Gordon van Welie, President and CEO, ISO New England 2015 IEEE Power & Energy Society
More informationUtilities Sector Analysis. Luke Friedman & Geno Frissora
Utilities Sector Analysis { Luke Friedman & Geno Frissora Agenda - Overview - Business Analysis - Economic Analysis - Financial Analysis - Valuation - Recommendations - Questions SIM Weight vs. S&P Weight
More informationDisplacement of Coal with Natural Gas to Generate Electricity
Displacement of Coal with Natural Gas to Generate Electricity The American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity (ACCCE) supports a balanced energy strategy that will ensure affordable and reliable energy,
More informationGB Electricity Market Summary
GB Electricity Market Summary SECOND QUARTER 2014 APR TO JUN Recorded Levels of UK Generation by Fuel (based upon DECC Energy Trends & FUELHH data): GAS: 10.8GW WIND: 2.6GW AUGUST 2014 COAL: 10.1GW BIOMASS:
More informationApplication for Registration
(Rev. 4/09) National Registry of Radiation Protection Technologists P.O. Box 3084, Westerly, RI 02891 (401) 637-4811 Application for Registration Instructions: Type or print neatly in black ink Date: /
More informationELECTRIC UTILITY INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP)
ELECTRIC UTILITY INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP) Demand-Side Resources PRESENTED TO THAI ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, OERC, AND UTILITIES DELEGATION Boston, Massachusetts PRESENTED BY ROMKAEW BROEHM MARIKO
More informationNational Registry of Radiation Protection Technologists P.O. Box 3084 Westerly, RI 02891 (401) 637-4811 (ofc) (401) 637-4822 (fax)
(Rev. 7/13) National Registry of Radiation Protection Technologists P.O. Box 3084 Westerly, RI 02891 (401) 637-4811 (ofc) (401) 637-4822 (fax) Application for Registration Office Use Only Pd by: _ Ck#:
More informationConcepts and Experiences with Capacity Mechanisms
Concepts and Experiences with Capacity Mechanisms Manuel Baritaud, International Energy Agency Conference Capacity Mechanisms: Experiences in Various European Countries Bundesministerium fur Wirtschaft
More informationDSIP List (Diversified Stock Income Plan)
Kent A. Newcomb, CFA, Equity Sector Analyst Joseph E. Buffa, Equity Sector Analyst DSIP List (Diversified Stock Income Plan) Commentary from ASG's Equity Sector Analysts January 2014 Concept Review The
More informationBLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT
BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 8 APRIL 2014 MICHAEL LIEBREICH CHAIRMAN OF THE ADVISORY BOARD TWITTER: @MLIEBREICH #BNEF2014 Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 Twitter: @Mliebreich #BNEF2014
More informationPublic Comment to EPA on New Stationary Sources Rule Sam Batkins and Catrina Rorke Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0495 May 9, 2014
Public Comment to EPA on New Stationary Sources Rule Sam Batkins and Catrina Rorke Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0495 May 9, 2014 Introduction We appreciate the opportunity to comment on the Environmental
More informationThe potential for higher operating costs and/or declining operating performance as W.H. Sammis, Clifty Creek, Kyger Creek and Davis-Besse age.
FirstEnergy is pushing for utility regulators in Ohio to allow it to pass long-term costs and risks of three aging coal-fired plants and one aging nuclear plant onto captive customers of the utilities.
More informationDominion Resources, Inc.
UNIVERSITY OF OREGON INVESTMENT GROUP June 2, 2010 IME Dominion Resources, Inc. Stock Data Price (52 weeks) 30.41 42.56 Symbol/Exchange D/NYSE Beta.58 Shares Outstanding 586 Million Average daily volume
More informationLONG-TERM ASSESSMENT OF NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE TO SERVE ELECTRIC GENERATION NEEDS WITHIN ERCOT
LONG-TERM ASSESSMENT OF NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE TO SERVE ELECTRIC GENERATION NEEDS WITHIN ERCOT Prepared for The Electric Reliability Council of Texas JUNE 2013 Black & Veatch Holding Company 2011.
More informationPower Generation. Lilian Macleod Power Supply Manager National Grid
Power Generation Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. This text box and image can
More informationBanking on Renewables
RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE BRIEFINGS Banking on Renewables These Briefings showcase different facets of the rural infrastructure industries: power, energy, and utilities; water utilities; and communications.
More information