Utilities Sector Analysis. Luke Friedman & Geno Frissora

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1 Utilities Sector Analysis { Luke Friedman & Geno Frissora

2 Agenda - Overview - Business Analysis - Economic Analysis - Financial Analysis - Valuation - Recommendations - Questions

3 SIM Weight vs. S&P Weight Currently 23 basis points underweight Utilities 3.34% SIM Weighting Utilities 3.57% S&P Weighting Industrials 9.78% Materials 3.40% Telecom 3.53% Technology 21.22% Industrials 10.95% Materials 3.73% Telecom 2.73% Technology 19.60% Consumer Discretionary 7.46% Consumer Staples 11.98% Health Care 13.19% Energy 11.13% Financials 12.27% Consumer Discretionary 10.83% Consumer Staples 10.87% Health Care 11.69% Financials 14.11% Energy 11.92% Technology Financials Technology Financials Energy Health Care Energy Health Care Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Industrials Utilities Industrials Utilities Materials Telecom Materials Telecom

4 Utilities Overview 0.2% 8.6% 7.5% Industry Breakdown Diversified Utilities Electric Utilities Foreign Utilities Gas Utilities Water Utilities 32.9% 50.8% Industry Percentage Market Cap Diversified Utilities 50.8% 8, Electric Utilities 32.9% 5, Foreign Utilities 0.2% Gas Utilities 8.6% 1, Water Utilities 7.5% 1, Total 100.0% 17,148.10

5 Utilities Overview $17.85 $19.00 $17.42 $16.63 $25.26 Largest Utilities $16.09 $38.74 $26.55 $28.60 $28.40 SO DUK D EXC NEE AEP FE ED PCG PGN Company Ticker Market Cap (Billions) Rank Southern Co. SO Duke Energy DUK Dominion Resources Inc. D Exelon Corp EXC NextEra NEE American Electric Power AEP 19 6 FirstEnergy Corporation FE Consolidated Edison ED Pacific Gas and Electric PCG Progress Energy PGN

6 Performance by Sector YTD 3 mon. 6 mon. 1 year 2 year 5 year 10 year Energy 5% 2% 18% -1% 32% 23% 165% Materials 13% 6% 20% -4% 27% -1% 76% Consumer Staples 0% 3% 13% 10% 22% 22% 52% Consumer Disc. 9% 7% 25% 9% 46% 7% 40% Utilities -3% -1% 16% 9% 21% -8% 29% Technology 11% 6% 24% 4% 32% 26% 28% Industrials 1% 10% 26% -1% 32% -4% 28% S&P 7% 6% 21% 2% 25% -7% 19% Health Care 4% 6% 20% 12% 16% 4% 9% Telecom -2% 1% 10% 1% 23% -21% -18% Financials 13% 9% 22% -13% 6% -61% -43%

7 Utilities Business Analysis Product Life Cycle Mature - Lowered Costs as a result of production volume - Higher Sales Volume - High Competition among firms

8 Utilities Business Analysis External Factors - Potential Supply Shortages - Commodity Price Fluctuations - Weather Conditions - Ex. Temperature Changes affect power generation and supply - Infrastructure Concerns - Damage to Utilities production and distribution - Ex. Power Outages

9 Utilities Business Analysis Supply Factors - CO2 Emissions will influence future - EPA Regulations - Legislation Cap and Trade for instance - Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) - Political Instability (Investment Decisions going forward) - Cost of Commodities - Natural Gas and Fossil Fuels Volatility - Difficult to Predict and therefore represents an unknown - Potential Competition - Alternative Energy Sources - Ex. Solar and Wind - Political Influence - Subsidies for alternative energy sources from Government

10 Utilities Business Analysis Demand Factors Programs to reduce domestic demand Advertising campaigns to limit energy use Moderating growth in developed economies More energy efficiencies More conservative use Strong growth in emerging economies Could increase demand

11 Utilities Business Analysis Strengths Strong dividend amongst most utilities companies Steady growth with less volatility Product necessity Weaknesses Heavily regulated industry Changes in technology Aging infrastructure Government intervention making international expansion difficult

12 Utilities Business Analysis Geography and Users - Largely based on population - Larger geographic areas have larger Energy Consumption - Areas with more manufacturing have higher consumption Texas Energy Consumption by State California Florida 9% Ohio 7% 6% Pennsylvania 4% New York 52% 4% Illinois Georgia North Carolina Michigan 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% All other States

13 Utilities Business Analysis Five Forces Analysis Threat of New Entry (Low) - High Fixed Costs - Upfront Capital - Regulatory Approval - Brand Name Recognition is difficult to build Supplier Power (Low) - Dominated by handful of firms - Significant power over generational companies - Leverage reduced due to wide spread of players (small shares) Buyer Power (High) - Power Treated as a commodity - Highly competitive pricing and service - Commercial buyers have significant leverage

14 Utilities Business Analysis Five Forces Analysis (continued) Substitutes (Low) - Power is a necessity, therefore little substitute - Power is inelastic, not much change due to price - No alternative to Natural gas, but alternative ways to generate Competitive Rivalry (High) - Very competitive - Fight for Market Share for economies of scale - Mainly competitive in the form of lowered prices - Profitability drops

15 Utilities Economic Analysis

16 Utilities Economic Analysis

17 Utilities Economic Analysis

18 Utilities Financial Analysis Revenue Analysis - Historically on the decline - Expected to Grow in near term

19 Utilities Financial Analysis Earnings Analysis - Historically starting to slow down - Expected to Grow in long term

20 Utilities Financial Analysis Return On Equity Analysis - Historically decreasing last few years - Consistent Margins

21 Utilities Valuation Analysis Absolute Basis High Low Median Current P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF Relative to S&P High Low Median Current P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF

22 Utilities Valuation Analysis Price to Book Absolute (top) vs. Relative to S&P (bottom)

23 Utilities Valuation Analysis Price to Cash Flow Absolute

24 Utilities Technical Analysis

25 Recommendation Increase 23 bp to equal weight with S&P Defensive sector with little volatility Steady expected revenue growth Good dividend stream Good way to participate in the market in uncertain times Potential Risks Heavily regulated market Aging infrastructure will need updated Alternative energy sources could replace some demand

26 What questions do you have?

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