Jamshid Shahnavazi, Farahdokht Ebadi

Transcription

1 International Research Journal of Applied and Basic Sciences 2015 Available online at ISSN X / Vol, 9 (4): Science Explorer Publications Investigation the Relationship Price of Oil with the Price Changes and the Oil Companies Stock Return (Petroleum Products, Chemicals, Rubber and Plastics) On the Tehran Stock Exchange Jamshid Shahnavazi, Farahdokht Ebadi Department of Accounting, college of Human Science, zahedan Science and research branch, Islamic Azad University, Zahedan, Iran Corresponding author ebadpaper@chmail.ir ABSTRACT: The country's capital market is influenced by internal and external factors. One of the most important external factors, the volatility of oil prices. Much research on the correlation between oil price has been made to the stock exchange. Most of this research has been done abroad that this dependence is observed in most of them. The main objective of this study was to "investigate the relationship between oil prices and in yields and stock prices of oil companies (petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic) Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2008 to 2013".In this study, the price and performance of firms as the dependent variable, in oil prices as the dependent variable of the regression models used to test hypotheses. The results showed that: 1- Between oil prices and oil industry stock price index is imperfect correlation and straightforward. 2- Between oil prices Chemical substances stock price index is imperfect correlation and straightforward. 3- Between oil prices Rubber and Plastics stock price index is imperfect correlation and straightforward. 4- Between oil prices and Petroleum products industry stock returns in the Tehran Stock Exchange is correlation imperfect and direct. 5- Between oil prices and oil industry stock returns in the Tehran Stock Exchange is correlation imperfect and direct. 6- Between oil prices and Rubber and Plastics industry stock returns in the Tehran Stock Exchange is correlation imperfect and direct. Keywords: oil prices, oil companies, chemical industry, enterprise efficiency Statement of the problem Capital market of each country is influenced by internal and external factors. One of the important external factors is fluctuation of oil price which much investigation have been done and most of the studies are done in abroad. In most of the cases dependency has been existed, but in some researches kind of communication is different from others, some consider the correlation of in oil price and stock exchange negative, and others consider it positive or showed it much or less. In all of these researches, the cause of oil price change has been considered as an important factor in existence and kind of relationship among abovementioned variables, in a way that if the reason of oil price change is political or war and conflicts between exporting and importing countries, especially in middle east countries, oil price would have negative effect on the Stock Ex. And in the case of oil price (especially oil price ) is due to growth of global economy and related countries, then it will have a positive effect on Stock Exchange (Matoufi,1392). Vast researches which have been done in Iran or abroad in the field of relationship between oil price and economy growth, GDP, stock price, stock price index and stock efficiency show different results. The reason for this difference is time and location of research, because the result can be different in terms of producer or importer(mir Torabi,1392). Ramon & Gabriel (2008) in a study which called it " effect of oil price on the growth of production and stock efficiency, concluded that oil price rise have negative effect on the industrial production and stock exchange and on the contrast, stock efficiency had reaction on the increase of oil price and also they have said that stock efficiency react more quickly in short term than oil price change, which in long term its effect on the industrial productions are more than stock efficiency. Finally, their empirical research showed that oil price rise have negative effect on the continuing of economical growth and have the positive effect on the possibility of beginning an economical stagnation.

2 Kim & Mohan had done a research with the title of "how oil change stock price?" and this is their conclusion: A) It seems that most of stock prices are non sensitive to oil prices B) This comment that correlation between stock prices and oil prices are less obvious, it is found that unless oil price shocks can be cause of economical stagnation. C) There are evident that justify oil is an important factor industry Martin has done a research under the title of "How oil price change result in change in stock exchange?" which the time for doing this research is one week from 1989 to 17 weeks of This research is related to countries like Japan, Norway, Swede, England and USA; which at the end, strong evidence showed fluctuations of japan, Norway, USA and England, and weak evidences was indicative of stock ex for Swede. Results of this study showed that stock besides of oil price is related to other unspecified factors, moreover in this study oil price is known as a weak variable in stock exchange fluctuations. Babatunde in a study that investigated raw oil shocks said that oil price shocks have a negative effect on the complex efficiency of USA stock ex. The main issue in this study which investigates the relationship between oil price with price and oil companies' stock efficiency in Tehran stock exchange, examining of fluctuations and created in Tehran stock exchange would be investigated by correlation test. Importance of oil incomes for our economy, especially in current status which in one hand dependency is more to these incomes and on the other hand import volume is increased vastly and need no more explication. Any serious decline in oil income can create lots of problems by affecting public section expenses and creating problem in abroad trade. By postulating consistency of production and exporting raw oil in near future, oil income actually would be dependence for global oil prices (Mehrani, 1392). Importance of stock exchange and its performance in industrialized countries is crucial, in a way that in most of industrialized countries, active stock exchange is part of economical organizations in society. Importance of stock exchange in these countries is in a way that economy of these countries is dependent upon stock exchange, if stock exchange market is being developed, economy also develops and if market is stagnant, this stagnation reflects on the whole of economy. Actually, status of stock exchange in industrialized countries is a kind of economical index status, which by considering to the status of Tehran Stock Exchange it is of no exception (Masah, 1392). From one point of view on the role and importance of oil in our economy and on the other hand stock exchange importance in taking capital and lots of oil companies active in Tehran stock exchange, unfortunately little research has been done on the importance and role of oil in stock exchange. Now according to the fact that Iran is exporter of oil and its economy is relied upon oil income, determining the relationship between oil price with price change and stock efficiency can help policy makers of economy and stock exchange investors to take more efficient measures, so this study aims to investigate the relationship between oil price with price change and efficiency of active oil companies efficiency in stock exchange. Hypothesis of the research This research consists of two main hypotheses which are as follows: There are relationships between the price of oil and change of oil companies stock efficiency. This hypothesis consists of three subsidiary hypothesizes: There is relationship between oil price and change of oil companies stock efficiency. There is relationship between oil price and change of chemical companies stock efficiency. There is relationship between oil price and change of rubber and plastic companies stock efficiency There are relationships between the price of oil and oil companies stock price. This hypothesis consists of three subsidiary hypothesizes: There is relationship between oil price and oil products stock price. There is relationship between oil price and chemical products stock price. There is relationship between oil price and rubber & plastic products stock price. According to the determined goals and specifying kind of companies under research, three industries were chosen as statistical population which are: Oil, chemical and rubber & plastic products, which these are three important and vast sections of Tehran stock ex which consists of 42 companies. METHODOLOGY OF RESEARCH This study is descriptive- correlative and from the standpoint of goal it is practical. Because it is done with the goal of using these results in market. 548

3 Definition of variables Independent variable In this research independent variable is oil price. This variable is based on Iran's raw oil on the basis of global dollar market which is calculated monthly in the time interval of 1391 of Solar year. Dependent variable In this research, dependent variable is stock price and stock efficiency. Stock exchange price in these companies in specific time, is the highest price which other buyers, are ready to pay in order to receive future cash related to stock(received price for stock interest and price of this stock). Because price variable is measurable, is quantitative variable. For calculating stock price, we use stock price in Tehran stock exchange. Stock price index in Tehran stock exchange is based on Laspeyres and is calculated as follows (Ahmad Pour & et.al, 1386). N= number of accepted companies O= base I= determined variable which is between 1 to n. t 1 = time for calculating the Pit = price of company stock, ranking of i in time of t Pio = price of company stock, ranking of i in time of o qit= number of company published stock, ranking of i in time of t qio= number of company published stock, ranking of i in time of o Base Value= 100(base number) TEPIX= stock of whole of accepted companies and registered on the board of Stock exchange In this study we used stock price of three products, which are: oil, chemical and rubber & plastic, and plastic is used as the data in this research for testing subsidiary hypothesis. Degree of oil products stock efficiency Degree of efficiency related to each stock, is obtained by input and output process of difference. And it is composed of two sections (Rayi & Talangi, 1383). 1. received price for the interest of stock 2. price of stock in the period of investing p = Stock price at the end of t period t p :Stock price in the beginning of t period with the end t-1 t 1 D :Cash interest of stock at the end of period t t Research Findings Descriptive Finding Oil Price This variable is performing its role as the main variable of the study. Because the information related to universal price of Iran's oil is based on AD, but price and stock feedback is based on solar, solar is considered as base. 549

4 Table 1. descriptive analysis of oil price variable Stock price of oil products in Tehran Stock Exchange Following table consists of selected s related to data of Stock price of oil products within desired time interval in Tehran Stock Exchange Stock price of oil products Table 2. descriptive analysis of stock price of oil products Skewedness Kurtosis Stock price of chemical products in Tehran Stock Exchange Following table consists of selected s related to data of Stock price of chemical products within desired time interval in Tehran Stock Exchange Table 3. descriptive analysis of stock price of chemical products Stock price of chemical products Stock price of plastic products in Tehran Stock Exchange Following table consists of selected s related to data of Stock price of plastic products within desired time interval in Tehran Stock Exchange Table 4. descriptive analysis of stock price of plastic products Stock price of plastic products Efficiency of oil products Stock in Tehran Stock Exchange Following table consists of selected s related to data of efficiency of Stock oil products within desired time interval in Tehran Stock Exchange Table 5. descriptive analysis of the efficiency of oil products Efficiency of Stock oil products Efficiency of chemical products Stock in Tehran Stock Exchange Following table consists of selected s related to data of efficiency of chemical products within desired time interval in Tehran Stock Exchange Table 6. descriptive analysis of the efficiency of chemical products Stock price of chemical products Efficiency of plastic products Stock in Tehran Stock Exchange Following table consists of selected s related to data of efficiency of plastic products within desired time interval in Tehran Stock Exchange Table 7. descriptive analysis of the efficiency of chemical products Stock price of plastic products 550

5 Test for determining whether variables are normal For determining whether variables of this study are normal or not, we used Kolomogrov test. In following table, results of this test are shown. Table 8. Test for determining whether variables are normal Order s Way of test Normal Referential statistics 1 KS Normal 2 Price of oil products stock KS Normal 3 Price of chemical products stock Spearman's correlational KS Abnormal 4 Price of plastic products stock KS Normal 5 Efficiency of oil products Stock KS Normal 6 Efficiency of chemical products Spearman's correlational KS Abnormal Stock 7 Efficiency of plastic products Stock KS Normal Test for Determining Whether s is Normal Hypothesis Test and its Results For testing between variables in this research, we used correlational analysis, because in this study we seek for relationship between these two variables. Correlational analysis is the statistical instrument for determining the type and degree of relationship between a quantitative variable and another one, which by that we can specify its intensity and type of its relationship(direct or reverse), and this factor is between +1 and -1, in case of no relationship between these two variables, it is zero. Results from the hypothesizes of this study, is calculated by SPSS software. First hypothesis test Between the price of oil and Price of oil companies stock there are relationships. For testing this hypothesis we used three subsidiaries hypothesizes, which each of them try to investigate oil price with Price of three industries stock s, which are oil, chemical and rubber and plastic. First subsidiary hypothesis of main hypothesis Between oil price and Price of oil companies stock there is relationship.. Results obtained from this test which is calculated by SPSS software is offered in table 9. Table 9. results of for the first subsidiary hypothesis of main hypothesis Price of oil companies stock s As the first table shows, in =0.05 there is a positive relationship between oil price and Price of oil companies stock. Besides that, for these two variables is 0/414 which according to correlation analysis, considering to the degree of is between 0 and +1 (0<r<1), correlation between two variables are direct and faulty, which by increasing the degree of oil price, Price of oil companies stock is increased relatively. second subsidiary hypothesis of main hypothesis Between oil price and Price of chemical companies stock there is relationship. Spearman's correlational. Results obtained from this test which is calculated by SPSS software is offered in table

6 Table 10. results of Spearman's correlational for the second subsidiary hypothesis of main hypothesis Price of oil companies stock Spearman's correlational As the first table shows, in =0.05 there is a negative relationship between oil price and Price of chemical companies stock. Besides that, Spearman's correlational for these two variables is which according to correlation analysis, considering to the degree of Spearman's correlational is between 0 and -1, correlation between two variables are reverse and faulty, which by increasing the degree of oil price, Price of chemical companies stock is decreased relatively. Internal and external Issues and problems of Iran like presidential election, vast growth of s in earlier years, economical, political and governing factors in capacity, substituting the government and ambiguity of investors in the new economical policies of the new government, also sending Iran's Atomic energy file to security council, bubbling of bazaar together with underwriting of many investors, density of distributing governmental companies stocks in the last months of 1388, continuing the pressures against Iran by International policies, and internal developments, and decreasing abroad investments in Petrochemical industry and increasing the importing of some chemical products, caused the decreasing of Stock Exchange; that Tehran Stock Exchange proceed a different procedure compared earlier. For this to happen, relationship between oil price and Tehran Stock Exchange in two periods were investigated, one earlier than 1389 and after results of Spearman's test are given below on 11 and 12 which is calculated by SPSS software. Table 11. results of for the total earlier than 1389 Tehran Stock Exchange before 1389 Spearman's correlational Table 12. results of for the total after 1389 Tehran Stock Exchange after 1389 Spearman's correlational Considering to the degree of correlational test between oil price and Tehran Stock Exchange before and after 1389, we can conclude that external factors are the cause of negative relationship of second subsidiary hypothesis. Third subsidiary hypothesis of first main one Between oil price and Price of rubber companies stock there is relationship.. Results obtained from this test which is calculated by SPSS software is offered in table 13. Table 13. results of for the third subsidiary hypothesis Price of rubber companies stock As the first table shows, in =%5 there is not a meaningful relationship between oil price and Price of rubber companies stock. In other words, there is not any relationship between oil price and Price of rubber companies stock. Lack of necessary development, paying less attention to this job, lack of cash, rise of raw materials and immethodical import of Tires caused the decline of rubber and plastic s price since And also by considering to the Security Council resolutions and followed commercial sanctions, prolonging the process of opening credit, lack of the possibility in purchasing in large 552

7 volumes, problems created when purchasing raw materials, and prolonging the period of returning the capital has created vast problems in this industry. Second hypothesis test Between oil price and efficiency of oil products Stock there is relationship. For testing this hypothesis we used three subsidiaries hypothesizes, which each of them try to investigate oil price with Price of three industries stock s, which are oil, chemical and rubber and plastic. First subsidiary hypothesis of second main hypothesis There is a relationship between oil price and efficiency of oil products Stock.. Results obtained from this test which is calculated by SPSS software is offered in table 14. Table 14. results of for the first subsidiary hypothesis of second main hypothesis efficiency of oil products Stock As the table shows, in =0.05 there is a positive relationship between oil price and efficiency of oil products Stock. Besides that, for these two variables is 0/893 which according to correlation analysis, and considering to the degree of Perason's correlational is between 0 and +1, correlation between two variables are direct and faulty, which by increasing the degree of oil price, Price of chemical companies stock is increased relatively. Second subsidiary hypothesis of second main hypothesis Between oil price and Price of chemical companies stock there is relationship. Spearman's correlational. Results obtained from this test which is calculated by SPSS software is offered in table 15. Table 15. results of Spearman's correlational for the second subsidiary hypothesis of second main hypothesis efficiency of chemical products Stock Spearman's correlational As the first table shows, in =0.05 there is a positive relationship between oil price and Price of chemical companies stock. Besides that, Spearman's correlational for these two variables is which according to correlation analysis, considering to the degree of is between 0 and +1 (0<r<+1). Correlation between two variables are direct and faulty, which by increasing the degree of oil price, efficiency of chemical products Stock increases relatively. Third subsidiary hypothesis of second main hypothesis There is relationship between oil price and Price of rubber and plastic companies stock.. Results obtained from this test which is calculated by SPSS software is offered in table 16. Table 16. results of Spearman's correlational for the third subsidiary hypothesis of second main hypothesis efficiency of rubber and plastic products Stock As the table shows, in =%5 degree there is a meaningful relationship between oil price and price of rubber and plastic companies stock. Besides that, for these two variables is 0/402 which according to correlation analysis, and considering to the degree of Pearson's 553

8 correlational is between 0 and +1 (0<r<+1). Correlation between two variables are direct and faulty, which by increasing the degree of oil price, efficiency of chemical products Stock increases relatively. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION There is a direct and faulty Correlation Between oil price and Price of oil companies stock, which by increasing the degree of oil price, efficiency of chemical products Stock increases relatively. There is a reverse and faulty Correlation Between oil price and Price of chemical companies stock, which by increasing the degree of oil price, efficiency of chemical products Stock decreases relatively. There is not any relationship between oil price and Price of rubber and plastic companies stock in Tehran stock exchange which its reason is Lack of necessary development, paying less attention to this industry, lack of cash, rise of raw materials and immethodical import of Tires caused the decline of rubber and plastic s price since And also by considering to the Security Council resolutions and followed commercial sanctions, prolonging the process of opening credit, lack of the possibility in purchasing in large volumes, problems created when purchasing raw materials, and prolonging the period of returning the capital has created vast problems in this industry. There is a direct and faulty Correlation Between oil price and efficiency of oil products Stock, which by increasing the degree of oil price, efficiency of chemical products Stock increases relatively. There is a direct and faulty Correlation Between oil price and efficiency of chemical products in Tehran Stock exchange, which by increasing the degree of oil price, efficiency of chemical products Stock increases relatively, which it is not due to the price change, rather than because of systematic risk, more profit is paid to the shareholders to have more tendency to keep the stock. There is a direct and faulty Correlation Between oil price and efficiency of rubber and plastic products in Tehran Stock exchange, which by increasing the degree of oil price, efficiency of rubber and plastic products Stock increases relatively. Cause of this, is similar to the former one. Two main hypothesizes of this study were approved There is a relationship between oil price and Price of oil companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. There is a relationship between oil price and efficiency of oil products in Tehran Stock exchange. Based on this, results of this study were compared to the already done researches, first hypothesis of this study, Moshrefi (1387), Samadi (1385), Samadi & et.al (1392), Shafiyi (1387), Gloob (1983), Hamoudeh & Eliza (2004) and Kim & Mouhan are approved, also Rayis Tousi & Mousavi study (1384), Hamilton (1983), Gyser & Gudwin (1986), Mourk & et.al (1994), Hooker (1996), Ferderer (1996), Routemberg & Woodford (1996), Hamilton (2003), Beat leage Mir (2005) and Ramon & Gabriel (2005) approve the relationship between oil price with economical growth, Gross domestic product which results in stock exchange change, especially stock price, but with the difference that some of these researches present negative relationship with abovementioned variables. Results of second hypothesis in this study, approves Sadorosky (1999), Sinner (2001), and Lootz & Cholboom (2007) studies, which investigate the positive relationship between price oil and efficiency of stock. Also, Odosami (2008) and Sridhar (2008) studies approve the relationship between price oil and efficiency of stock, with the difference that some of these researches present negative relationship with two variables. Suggestions In case of oil price rise and this process be continued (this rise of price, result not from oil shocks which is temporarily, rather than be from developments of economy (economic growth) or effects of distributing oil) following suggestions are recommended. It is offered to shareholders to take action for purchasing stocks in case of rise in price index, efficiency of two industries' stocks, oil and rubber products. And in case of decline in oil price, considering to the decline of oil price index and efficiency of two industries', oil products and rubber and plastic industry take action to sell this stock. It is recommended to the companies of broker to encourage their costumers to purchase this stock, according to the increase of price index and stock efficiency, oil products and rubber industry. In case of decline in oil price, according to the decrease of price index and stock efficiency, oil products and rubber industry, prohibit them from purchasing the stocks. 554

9 It is also recommended to potential investors to according to the obtained information from this study take action to invest and purchase stocks in oil products and rubber and plastic, and in case of decline in oil price not to take action in investing and purchasing these stocks. It is suggested to both of the managers of abovementioned oil companies, which their price index have increased by rising in the oil price to encourage investors to buy stock by allocating more interest and paying it timely. In case of investors, welcome of buying stocks of oil companies, it is suggested to officials to leave the oil companies among oil and gas companies according to Article 44 of the constitution. Suggestions for further research Effects of rise in oil price and efficiency of oil companies Stock in Tehran Stock Exchange can be investigated. Effects of oil price change on Tehran Stock Exchange in a specified time interval could be investigated. More investigation in the relationship between and increase of oil incomes on the indexes of Tehran Stock Exchange. Effects of rise in oil price on the efficiency of non-oil companies Stock in Tehran Stock Exchange can be investigated. Comparing the effect of oil price increase on the price index and efficiency of non-oil companies to oil companies, in Tehran Stock Exchange can be investigated. REFERENCES Kim R, Sawyer MN How Oil Moves Stock Prices?, University of Melbourne And Monash University, Working Paper. PP Martin A Does oil price uncertainty transmit to stock markets? Department of Economics, Uppsala University, Working Paper. Masah M investigation of Iran's Stock Exchange future prospect, article, world of economy newspaper. Matoufi AR factors effective in partnership in capital market of Iran, MA thesis, Tabriz non-profit organization and nongovernmental Qadir institution, page 52. Mehrani S, Kaveh investigating the relationship between Profitability and efficiency of stock in Tehran Stock Exchange, Accounting and audit journal, no. 33, pages Mir Torabi S Iran oil issues, Iran Mosavvar, third edition. 555