Evaluating Effect of Free Float on Liquidity Increase, Depth and Efficiency of Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange

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1 2014 (4): 1-7 Evaluating Effect of Free Float on Liquidity Increase, Depth and Efficiency of Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange Mohammad Reza Shahrasbi 1, Dr. Mehdi Taghavi 2, Dr. Kambiz Hozhabr Kiyani 3 1 Department of Development in Economic Sciences, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran 2 Professor, Faculty of Management and Economic, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran 3 Professor, Faculty of Management and Economic, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran Abstract: The two main pillars, risk and return, are always considered in the investment making-decision, and with respect to the minimum risk, the most return would be even useful criterion for investment. In financial markets, investors are seeking a return commensurate with their own risks level. The liquidity risk is one of the risks on the asset. Because of the nature of risk aversion, investors are looking for assets that can readily convert them into cash or in exchange for bearing this risk, earn excess returns. It seems, on stock market, changes in the float stock can affect the level of liquidity. Therefore, some investors who are going to pay attention to liquidity risk follow the changes of free float stock. However, most people in terms of the scientific and proven do not know efficacy (or inefficacy) of the free float stock on risk and return, or how being it intense. Therefore, given the lower average floating stock in Tehran Stock Exchange than the global, it tries the relationship between the float stock and returns and return to be assessed, in the form of panel data, there is found a significant positive relationship, based on the study, between the free float stock and all three dependent variables, returns, liquidity and price fluctuation. Keywords: free float stock, liquidity, return, fluctuation Problem Statement The securities market in which the shareholders transact of their assets gets paid attention of particular beneficiaries. Strong capital market is an important pillar of economic growth and development. This market by using its internal mechanisms determine the fair price of the shares and the efficient allocation of capital and both reasons mentioned (the fair price of shares, efficient allocation), are among the important reasons why the capital market affecting the economic development and growth, but the efficient allocation is when most of capital is realizing profitable activities (Molla Hosseini, 2007). At Stock Exchange, which is obvious arisen the capital market, capital and stock are traded pertain to the company. This causes the excess liquidity of the people falls into the company rather than market of goods, and covers the company financing and will eventually increase production. The more production, the more balanced the supply and it can respond to growing demand in the market for goods and services and prevent inflation. On the other hand, the company has accessed to an inexpensive source of funding, the actual cost of products will not rise. The liquidity is defined as to the market's ability in absorbing large volumes of transactions without causing severe volatilities in the price (Kashanipoor, 2010). Exchange activities, without a doubt, have been the most important practice in order to encourage people to invest in companies shares and liquidity absorption and conduction in the economic cycle. Essentially important, creating a situation where investors from the adverse impacts of investment adopt certain specific securities (Khakpour, 2008). Efficient market hypothesis states that stock prices reflect all the information which is at the market without any bias and selfishness. In other words, wherever there is new important and effective information on the securities of particular and may seem to affect the investors' expectations (are changing them) the stock price should react and reflect it, rapidly (C. Hendrickson, 1992). Investors, due to the high various investment options, choose among different options. This selection is based on risk and return characteristics. Any person, with a reasonable, aims to invest that can earn good return (Rahmani, 2010). One of the mechanisms can guide them to invest in a more accurate way to achieve greater return is free float stock and its resulting effects on the price and the stock return. The free float is a percentage of the company's capital available for trading or a part of a company's stock is tradable without any restrictions. In determining depth, width and length of the stock of the world as well as other variables, such as: the number of stock firms, number of shareholder, market up-to-date value and volume of transactions etc. to determine the standard of the world's stock markets, the amount of free float stock would be one of the valuation variables which has an impact on the companies stock liquidity rank at Stock Exchange. The free float stock raises the liquidity through the stock adjustment on where a significant part of the issued shares isn t put in the investment (2004 Free Float FAQ,).

2 Necessary of study Investors due to the high various investment options, make the choice between different options altogether. This selection is based on risk and return characteristics. Any person, with a reasonable, aims to invest that can earn good return on the certain risk level. One of the mechanisms can guide them to invest in a more accurate way to achieve greater efficiency is free float stock and its effects on the stock price and return. Some risk exists faced by an investor including the liquidity risk, which is the function of the free float. In determining the depth, width and length of the world stock exchanges, in addition to other variables, such as: the number of stock firms, number of shareholders, market up-to-date value and volume of transactions etc. to determine the standard of the world's stock markets, the free float stock is one of the valuation variables affecting Stock firms liquidity rank of shares. The free float stock raises the liquidity through the stock adjustment on where a significant part of the issued shares isn t put in the investment, additionally raising liquidity of shares would lead to trading at a lower cost and in less time. At low free float of the company, major shareholders can change the stock price readily in order to bring the stock market value to its substantive value, but if there is a higher rate of free float stock, especially for large companies, it is less likely to happen the price manipulation and intervention in the price systems specified by the market; this is also applicable in the case of smaller companies, however, given the low level of investment in these companies, it is possible to the manipulation, when being the high free float stock. Much of the research on the observations (inductive) show that the price of the securities offered in exchange reacts for new information. Therefore, if the free float has an impact on the stock price and the subsequently stock returns, concluded that the change in the float stock captures the information content, dissemination of these changes could signal to the investors because of help to decision making. According to unofficial statistics, average free float is less than 20% in Tehran Stock Exchange; this means that the stock is ranked in the low level in terms of, compared to the rest of the stock exchanges which involves policy making necessary to increase it. Accordingly, it is studied comprehensively the effects of free float stock on fundamental variables of the market such as liquidity, return and price volatility. The research purposes Tehran stock exchange, in the world exchanges, is of low average float stock (about 20 percent), according to research conducted and the free float stock of the different researches has been able to explain the return on and the risk of stock from different markets, this relationship can be evaluated in Tehran Stock Exchange; hence main purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between free float in Tehran Stock Exchange and variable of returns, liquidity and price volatility; as well, this was to develop a decision-making context for real and juridical investors in determining investment strategies. Research Hypothesis 1- % of the free float has a positive effect on stock returns in Tehran Stock Exchange. 2- % of the free float has a negative effect on the price volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange. 3- % of the free float has a positive effect on stock liquidity in Tehran Stock Exchange. Background of the research K. Ghourbannezhad Estalaki in 2006 in a research under "Study of the relationship between the mount of free float stock and the return rate of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange," investigated the relationship between the free float stock and the rate of stock return. The statistical population consisted of all the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange from August 2004 to July 2006, respectively. The results show that at the aggregate level, there is a significant relationship between the float stock and the rate of return, while this relationship is different at different levels of the float, but there was no significant relationship in different industries, (Mullah Hosseini, 2007). Mohammed Jamal Hassan Jani in 2008 in a study under "Examining the relationship between the free float and return of companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange" studied the relationship between the 5 variables of: return on stocks, stock trading days, the ratio of shares traded to total shares, the variance of daily stock returns and P/E ratio, and the variable of company's float stock percent (independent variable). He to study used the 63 acting firms data in Tehran Stock Exchange for 11 periods of 3-month from 9/22/2004 to 3/12/2008 and concluded that there is a negative relationship between the amount of float stock and the variables of the return and the risk of the stock price volatilities variables; and a positive relation with the variables of the ratio of price to earnings and liquidity of the stock. Mazaher Ghanbarpour, from Islamic Azad University of Babylon in 2007, investigated the relationship between the amount of free float stock and total returns on stocks of companies listed in the Stock Exchange. The statistical population at the study consisted of all companies listed in the Stock Exchange for the years 2004 and He to do this employed uni-variate regression analysis (y = a + bx), at the above equation, return on the total stock as a dependent variable and the percentage of free float stock as an independent variable. The results show that there is no relationship between the total return and the percentage of free float stock (Ghanbarpour, 2007). Abdo Tabrizi in 2003 in an article under "Free float stock and determination of the basic size" assessed the Iranian market indices, suggesting that the float stock should be considered in calculating the index, but it was difficult to calculate the float stock, for better modulation of the index, it was used the basic size as to the number of minimum trades shaping the price changes of the stock. 2

3 Mehranfar reviewed the role of free float stock in the basic size calculation. This study shows that the mount of free float stock has no effect on the basic size calculation, while the basic size based on that price volatility is a basis for the next day's transactions should be based on the percentage of free float stock (Mehranfar, 2005). Kalluk Chan et al. in a study entitled "Float stock and liquidity of the market" conducted in 2002 in Hong Kong Stock Exchange examined the relationship between the float stock and liquidity of the market after the government became involved in Hong Kong stock market, and concluded that the government intervention in the Hong Kong stock market decreases it, and, consequently, micro-stock turnover and increases the slump liquidity in the market (Kalok, 2002, Chan &). Robin Greenwood (2005) to assess changes in the stock price when using manipulation in the float stock studied a collection of Japanese firms which had made changes in their float stock in a one-or-three-month period among 0.1 and 99.9 percent. The results showed that A) when the float stock is limited, the prices rise and when it rises, the prices decrease, and B) the return depends to decrease in the float stock of cross-sectional (Robin Greenwood, 2006). Wang, Feng Wax Yu designed a 3-agent model includes three factors such as survival, size and percentage of free float due to justifying 90% of the changes and the return on portfolio in China. According to them, a large percentage of shares of China market owned by the government; and low-quality information of shareholders and of low-percent free float are of the factors affecting the returns are irrational (Wang, Feng hua and Xu, Yexiao, 2004). Hong Feng Jin et al. investigated the relationship between the free float stock percentage and P/E ratio in the Chinese stock market. Their results showed that the linear relationship between the free float stock and P/E of semi-parametric model provide more convincing than the linear model to estimate the return on stock and liquidity benefits. In addition, the results showed that increasing percentage of free float of the company is to achieve P/E ratio is much better (Hong-fei, jin., Chen zhou-si and pan ji.2006). Research Methodology It regarding the application of its results which is important for managers of organizations is an applied research in terms of objective, also, method, as a descriptive one and from the correlation branch; in terms of time scale, as a cross-sectional study; and methods of data collection, a part of documental research, because it will be used the compilation of the theoretical background and history of books, articles and like that as well as in real data collected from information available to the Tehran Stock Exchange website. FF Table 1: Descriptive statistics details of data TA PV PC Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-Bera Probability Sum Sum Sq. Dev Observations Cross sections The research population and sample The statistical population consisted of all companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange currently in a 7-year period from 2006 to 2014, according to the financial statements. The statistical population under investigation consisted of 314 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. Methods of data collection Method of data collection in this study will be as a library (for explanation of theoretical concepts and research background with note taking techniques) and also investigating into the documents (what is available about transactions on Tehran Stock Exchange during the period in question, as actual). Data used in this study includes variables of free float (FF), return (PC), price volatility (PV) and liquidity (TA) have been calculated and collected from the sources mentioned above. 3

4 To control the industry type, 3 virtual variables (D1, D2, D3) is added to the model in order to service, finance and manufacturing firms. Analysis of the data Descriptive analysis of data: The following table indicates details of the descriptive statistics of the data used. As specified, the maximum deviation is connected to liquidity (TA). As well, the highest kurtosis is connected to the variable of liquidity and free float (FF). At the table, Jarcobra statistics in testing for being variables normality has been provided; to the test the basic hypothesis is the normality due to for all variables, the probability (PROB) obtained is less than 0.05, so this was rejected and series is not normal. Implementation of the models and testing hypotheses -The first hypothesis test: To test this hypothesis, the model was implemented into the pool: PC it =α+b 1 FF it +b 2 DUF it +b 3 DUP it + it (1) The result is presented below: Table 2: implementation of the pool Free float percent (FF) Financial permissibility (DUP) Production permissibility (DUP) Intercept (C) F-statistics P-value R Adjusted R Watson-Durbin After estimating the model in shared effects due to awareness of the fact that whether there are special cross-section effects? The model should be estimated by specific fixed effects and then did the F-Lymary test as discussed below. Table 3: the model estimation with fixed effects Free float percent (FF) Financial permissibility (DUP) Production permissibility (DUP) Intercept (C) F-statistics P-value R Adjusted R Watson-Durbin Table 4: results of F-Lymary test F-Lymary test Confirmed the shared-effects model against cross-sectional specific effects model 4

5 Given the above test, the probability (Prob) obtained from the first hypothesis being the equal intercepts indicating the absence of specific variables of cross-sectional should be accepted, so the model might in the form of shared effects (money) be implemented no specific effects (panel), then the final model is the same as table 4-2. As a result, the first hypothesis which states that there is a significant positive relationship between return and free float is confirmed. -The second hypothesis test: To test this hypothesis, the model bellow was implemented: PV it =α+ b 1 FF it + b 2 DUF it + b 3 DUP it + it (2) Below are the results: Table 5: shared effects model for the second hypothesis Free float percent (FF) Financial permissibility (DUP) Production permissibility (DUP) Intercept (C) F-statistics P-value R Adjusted R Watson-Durbin After estimating the model in shared effects due to awareness of the fact that whether there are special cross-section effects? The model should be estimated by specific fixed effects and then did the F-Lymary test as discussed below. Table 6: fixed effects model for the second hypothesis Free float percent (FF) Financial permissibility (DUP) Production permissibility (DUP) Intercept (C) F-statistics P-value R Adjusted R Table 7: Results of the F-Lymary test for the hypothesis F-Lymary test Confirmed the shared-effects model against cross-sectional specific effects model Based on the above analysis it is clear that the second model is a shared effects model too and the final model, its results were presented in Table 4.5, indicates a significant positive relationship between the free float (FF) and prices volatility variable (PV) that is exactly inversed by the second hypothesis. One reason for this result could mean low free float in Tehran Stock Exchange (24%). On the other hand, increasing the free float (like 50%) has an impact to some extent on the price volatility and then decreases it. - The third hypothesis test: To test this hypothesis, the following model was implemented: TA it =α+ b 1 FF it + b 2 DUF it + b 3 DUP it + it (3) 5

6 The results are presented below: Table 8: shared-effects model for the third hypothesis Free float percent (FF) Financial permissibility (DUP) Production permissibility (DUP) Intercept (C) F-statistics P-value R Adjusted R After estimating the model in shared effects due to awareness of the fact that whether there are special cross-section effects? The model should be estimated by specific fixed effects and then did the F-Lymary test as discussed below. Table 9: The specific effects model for the third hypothesis Free float percent (FF) Financial permissibility (DUP) Production permissibility (DUP) Intercept (C) F-statistics P-value R Adjusted R Table 10: results of F-Lymary test for the third hypothesis F-Lymary test Confirmed the crosssectional specific effects model against shared-effects model According to the test results it is clear that the third hypothesis is a specific-effects model, hence in order to realize of the type of effect (fixed specific effects or specific random effects) we first estimate the model as a specific random effects model and then will determine the type of specific effect model using the Hausman test. Table 11: specific random effects model for the third hypothesis Free float percent (FF) Financial permissibility (DUP) Production permissibility (DUP) Intercept (C) F-statistics P-value R Adjusted R

7 Table 12: Results of the Hausman test for the third hypothesis F-Lymary test Confirmed fixedeffects model against random effects According to the Hausman test, the results are shown in above, it is clear that the third hypothesis model is a specific fixedeffect one that the final is presented in Table 4-9, which showed a significant positive relationship between the free float stock (FF) and the variable of liquidity (TA) that it is consistent with the hypothesis 3 precisely. Namely when increasing the free float stock, the liquidity increases. Discussion and Conclusion - Analysis of the first hypothesis: The positive relationship between the free float stock and stock returns was obtained which proves that the increasing the percentage of float stock makes an increase in return on investment in Tehran Stock Exchange. - Analysis of the second hypothesis: In this study, a significant positive relationship was found between the free float and the price volatility. Thus, when increasing the percentage of the float stock in Tehran Stock Exchange, it might be increased the volatility, this is because excessive low stock percent tradable in Tehran Stock Exchange compared to the world average. Because the studies conducted, a negative relationship was obtained between these two variables. It can be expected that in the Tehran Stock Exchange with an increase in the percentage of free float to a certain extent the volatility increased and then decreased gradually. - Analysis of the third hypothesis: The study also found a significant positive relationship between the liquidity of stock and the free float stock percentage, suggesting that the increase in the float stock can have an impact on the liquidity of the stock in Tehran Stock Exchange. This result is consistent with previous studies and is in line with the theoretical foundations. Suggestions Stock Exchange, according to the survey results and to the free float has a positive effect on liquidity and returns, can adopt some advice to increase the percentage of free float. Investors can also take a tool of free float stock into consideration as a measure affecting the return and risk (liquidity and volatility) and be more careful in the selection of its stock. From then on everybody who wants could control the impact of industries on the model when adding data. Refrences 1. A.Ahmadpour, A. Gholami Kian & F.Salim (2007) Stock Exchange indices {with emphasis on price indices}, Tehran, Termeh Publication 2. A.Rahmani, A. and F. Fallahnezhad (2010), "The effect of accrual quality on the cost of equity", the Financial Accounting Research, Second Edition, No.30, Fall 2010, pp R. Shafahang, (2008) Accounting theory, Seventh Edition. Tehran: Publication of specialized Accounting and Auditing Research Center at Auditing Organization 4. H.Abdo Tabrizi, (1382). "The free float stock phenomenon and determination of the basic size" Capital Market Information Center 5- M.Kashani Pour, S. and M. Mehrati and Y. Pashanzhad (2010), Evaluating relation of some of the mechanisms in corporate governance system with market liquidity, financial accounting research, the second year, No.2-76 Summer 2010, pp R.Kiani, (2003) "Free float stock-based adjustment of index on Tehran Stock Exchange" Capital Market Information Center. 7- A.Mullah Hosseini, and K. Ghourbaknezhad (2007), "Evaluation of the relationship between the amount of free float stock and the return rate in Tehran Stock Exchange", Review of Accounting and Auditing, Vol 15, No. 51, Spring 2008, pp. 69 to Aggarwal, R.; Klapper, L.; Wysocki, P. D., Portfolio Preferences of Foreign Institutional Investors, Journal of Banking and Finance, 29, 2005, pp Ararat, M.; Ugur, M., Corporate Governance in Turkey: An Overview and Some Policy Recommendations, Corporate Governance, 3 (1), 2003, pp Beck, T.; Demirguc-Kunt, A.; Levine, R., Law, Politics, and Finance, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2585, 2001, [Accessed 9 th March 2008]. Available from World Wide Web: 12- Biktimirov, E. N.; The Effect of Demand on Stock Prices: Evidence from the S&P Index Float Adjustment, 2008, [Accessed 11th June 2008]. Available from World Wide Web: 13- Fenghua Wang & Yexiao Xu, (2004), "What Determines Chinese Stock Returns?", CFA Institute, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 60, No.6, pp: Kalok Chan & Yue-Cheong Chan & Wai- Ming Fong, (2002), "Free Float and Market Liquidity: Evidence from Hong Kong Government s Intervention", Hong Kong University of Science & Technology. 15- Robin Greenwood, (2006). Float Manipulation and Stock Prices, HBS Working Paper Number:

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