STUDY THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND EARNINGS STABILITY OF FIRMS IN TEHRAN SECURITIES EXCHANGE

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1 2014 Vol. 4 (S4), pp /Parvin and Mehrdad STUDY THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND EARNINGS STABILITY OF FIRMS IN TEHRAN SECURITIES EXCHANGE Parvin Nafei 1, 2 and *Mehrdad Ghanbari 3 1 Department of Accounting, Ilam Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran 2 Department of Accounting, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran 3 Department of Accounting, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran *Author for Correspondence ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between investment opportunities and earnings stability of firms in Tehran securities exchange. This research is applied in terms of purpose, is descriptive surveying in terms of method, and is correlation in terms of relation between variables. Statistical population of this research includes all Tehran listed firms. The number of firms is 480 that we selected 115 firms as statistical sample. We used 3 New Result software and information banks of Tehran securities exchange site for collecting data. We used annual reports and financial statements of Tehran listed firms for collecting data that are related to research hypotheses. Statistical analysis was conducted by E Views software. Finally, research hypotheses were tested by t test, F Fisher and determination (R 2 ). Research finding show that there is not a meaningful relationship between investment opportunities and earnings stability. INTRODUCTION The purpose of research centers and organizations that can provide necessary information for correct decision making of investors directs more individuals towards exchange for investment in securities (Jahanjhani & Ghorbani, 2005) Investors always require information that can implement them in their strategic decisions. Stock holders mainly invest in companies and economic organizations in future. Therefore, factors that are representative of continuous profitability and sustainable growth of a corporate can be suitable measures for the establishment of value. Stock holders believe that the establishment of value means the establishment of interests that result from investment, and are more than the implemented cost. Therefore, it is necessary to find an index that according to it we can explain the established value with acceptable reliability. Stock holders as the owners of trade unit want to increase their wealth, and according to this fact that the increase of wealth results from the performance of trade unit, it is important for owners to evaluate trade unit (Nauravesh, 2004) Investors estimate expected return using financial information of firms. In addition, investors rely more on earnings related information than other indices of performance like cash earnings and cash flows. Therefore, reported earnings is one of the measures that determines the expected return of investors. In addition, the figure of reported earnings is important for investors, and influences their decision. Investors pay special attention to qualitative characteristics of earnings as one of the dimensions of earnings information (Pareto & Poryanasab, 2001). Despite the presence of theoretical researches about the importance of the impact of investment opportunities and earning stability, there are a few applied and empirical researches that evaluate the importance of this subject. Previous researches did not consider investment opportunities as an influential factor on earnings stability. In addition, recent studies don t include this variable as control variable (DeAngelo et al., 2006). Copyright 2014 Centre for Info Bio Technology (CIBTech) 2448

2 2014 Vol. 4 (S4), pp /Parvin and Mehrdad Theoretical Foundations Investment includes expenses that spend on the increase or stabilization of the volume of actual capital. In fact, a more precise definition that includes above description is as follows: The flow of allocated expenses to produce goods and items those are not to be consumed instantly. These investment plans may be in the form of the increase of monetary capital, human capital or inventory. Investment is a flow that its volume determined by all plans that their current positive net value and the rate of their internal return are higher than interest rate. First factor is referred to as the standard of current net value. Second factor is referred to as the final return of investment (Penman, 2002). Investment consists of converting cash to one or more kinds of asset that will be kept for sometime in future. Investment of financial budgets in different assets is only a part of total financial planning s and decision makings that individuals perform (Richardson, 2004). Earnings Stability Earnings stability is one of the most fundamental elements of financial statements that users pay special attention to it. It is consider as a measure for evaluating activity continuation and efficiency and reviewing the structure of representative s contracts of economic centers. Indeed, earnings is a tool for overcoming measurement problems and performance evaluation of institutions because cash flows have schedule problems, and are not considered as a suitable measure for institutions performance. Accrual earnings, despite this superiority, that is based on the achievement and identification of income may not conform to actual cash flows of company (Dechow & Dichew, 2012). One of the measures of earnings quality evaluation is earnings stability. Earnings stability implies the repeatability (Continuation) of current earnings (Thaqafi & Kordestani, 2004). Therefore, the more the stability of earnings, its quality will be more. Since the calculation of accrual items is based on forecasts and estimations, consequently it measures with less reliance power and has weaker quality than cash components. Therefore, it can be noted that the more stability of earnings is due to its cash component (scot, one, Sha et al., 2010). Previous Researches Ghanati (2010) studied the relationship between the variables of the lack of confidence in the cash flow, capital composition, and investment opportunities in earnings payment policy of Tehran securities exchange. The results show that there is a relationship between the variables of the lack of confidence in the cash flow, capital composition and investment opportunities with earnings payment policy. The results of Abaszadeh and modares research (2007) in a paper under the title of analytical study of the impact of forecasting accrual components, accrual flows and cash flows on the stability of predicted earnings showed that there is a positive relationship between earnings performance and the power of earnings components forecast and their continuation. In other words, when earnings components have more stability, they can suitably predict earnings. Iatridis (2010) studied the impact of acceptance of international financial accounting standards on the stability of accounting reported earnings. In addition, he studied the relationship between prepared information of financial statements based on international accounting standards and firms value. The results of this research showed that the implementation of international accounting standards improves the stability of accounting earnings, and decreases freedom of action in earnings management. This is due to timely identification of loss. Consequently, it leads to accounting information reporting that is more related to value. It has been suggested in this research that less information asymmetry and less manipulation of earnings lead to higher quality of financial information disclosure. Consequently, they help investors to judge wisely. Based on the result of Dopak, Masherovala & Sizam Rajo s research (2005), it was determined that accrual part of earnings has less stability than its cash part. They believe that earning management is made accrual items. In addition, their results showed that the stability of current earnings decreases with the rise of accrual components of earnings, and increases with the risk of cash components of earnings. Hypotheses Main hypothesis: there is a meaningful relationship between investment opportunities and earnings stability of firms in Tehran securities exchange. Copyright 2014 Centre for Info Bio Technology (CIBTech) 2449

3 2014 Vol. 4 (S4), pp /Parvin and Mehrdad First subordinate hypothesis: there is a meaningful relationship between the ratio of book value of assets to market value of assets and earnings stability. Second subordinate hypothesis: there is a meaningful relationship between the ratio of market value of stock to book value of stock and earnings stability. Third subordinate hypothesis: there is a meaningful relationship between the ratio of market value of assets to fixed visible assets and earning stability. This research is applied in terms of purpose, is descriptive surveying in terms of method, and is correlation in terms of relationship between variables. Statistical population of this research includes all Tehran listed firms 2007 to Total number of Tehran listed firms is 480 that we selected 115 firms as statistical sample. We used 3 New Result software and information banks of Tehran securities exchange site for collecting data. We used annual reports and financial statements of Tehran listed firms for collecting data that are related to research hypotheses. Implemented statistical model in this research is multi Variable regression model. We used combines data to test hypotheses. In combine s data method, generalized F tests (F Limer test) are used to select between panel and pooling methods. In the case of panel method selection, Hasman test is conducted to select between random and fixed effects methods. Statistical analysis is conducted by E views software. Finally, research hypotheses are tested by t test, F Fisher and determination (R 2 ). Research Variables and the Manner of their Measurement According to the subject of research and related hypotheses, variables of this research include independent, dependent and control variables as follows: Independent Variables Investment Opportunities In order to calculate investment opportunities, we use following measures according to the previous researches: MBVA= MBVE= book value of assets market value of assets market value of equity book value of equity market value of assets FAMVA= fixed visible assets Price of every share consists of the last price of every share in the end of fiscal year on exchanges board. Market value of assets is total market value of equity + total book value of equity total book value of assets. Total book value of assets is total book value of assets in balance sheet date. Total book value of equity is total equity in balance sheet date divided by the number of equity. Total market of equity is the last price of equity market in the end of fiscal year of that firm. Dependent Variable Earnings Stability We use the following regression equation to evaluate earnings stability in which earnings of current period is a function of previous period earnings. In other words, in this model earnings continuation is representative of earnings stability. This pattern has been designed and presented in 2002 by Dechow and Dichev. E i,t =β 0 +β 1 E i,t 1 +ε i,t β 0 is an index for earnings stability. The of explanatory variable of E i,t 1 i.e. β 1 in above model that is a regression model is representative of earnings stability, and ε i,t is the reminder of regression model. E i,t is the earnings of current period, and E i,t 1 is the earnings of previous period. This model has been periodically estimated for 8 years to evaluate earnings stability annually. Control Variables Return on Assets (ROA) Rate Return on assets (ROA) rate (operational profitability) is calculated via dividing operational income of firm by total assets ft firm: Copyright 2014 Centre for Info Bio Technology (CIBTech) 2450

4 2014 Vol. 4 (S4), pp /Parvin and Mehrdad operational net profit (Loss) ROA it = total assets Firm Size (SIZE) Firm size is equal the log of total assets of firm: Size it = Log (TA t ) TA t is the total assets of firm in t year. Findings We used Pearson and spearman method to calculate correlation matrix of research variables that the results of estimation of these two matrices are presented in the following table. The results of correlation matrix estimation by Pearson method are presented below main diagonal, and the results of correlation matrix estimating by Spearman method are presented above main diagonal. Table 1: Covariance matrix of research variables EP i,t MBVAT i,t MBVE i,t FAMVA i,t ROA i,t SIZE i,t Correlation EP i,t Meaningfulness level Correlation ** ** ** MBVA i,t Meaningfulness level Correlation ** MBVE i,t Meaningfulness level Correlation FAMVA i,t Meaningfulness level Correlation ** * * ROA i,t Meaningfulness level Correlation ** SIZE i,t Meaningfulness level **Correlation is meaningful at 0.01 levels (0.99 levels) *Correlation is meaningful at 0.05 levels (0.95 levels) First subordinate hypothesis of research states that there is a meaningful relationship between the ratio of book value of assets to market value of assets and earnings stability. In order to study the meaningfulness of independent variable of the ratio of book value of assets to market value of assets, we can state H 0 and H 1 at error level of 5 percent as follows: H 0 : there is not a meaningful relationship between the ratio of book value of assets to market value of assets and earnings stability. H 0 :β 1 =0 H 1 : there is a meaningful relationship between the ratio of book value of assets to market value of assets and earnings stability. H 1 :β 1 0 According to the following table, the value of the probability of F Limer is that shows the use of panel data method. In addition, the value of the probability of Hasman test is that confirms the use of fixed effects method. Table 2: The results of F Limer and Hasman tests EP i,t =β 0 +β 1 MBVA i,t +β 2 ROA i,t + β 3 SIZE i,t + ε i,t The kind of test value The meaningfulness level of conclusion F Limer test Panel data method Hasman test Fixed effects method Copyright 2014 Centre for Info Bio Technology (CIBTech) 2451

5 2014 Vol. 4 (S4), pp /Parvin and Mehrdad According to the probability of calculated F in the following table at error level of 5 percent H 0 is rejected (0.05>0.000), this means that the model is meaningful, and at least one of the s of regression model is opposite Zero. In addition, according to the following table the value of estimate determination shows that about 37 percent of changes of dependent variable are explained by control and independent variables. This shows the medium relation of control and independent variables with dependent variable. According to the extent of presented Durbin Watson in the following table, we can find that there is not first type self regression. Consequently, model is suitable in terms of meaningfulness and the power of fitness. In addition, self regression is not seen in the model. Finally, presented results in the following table show that first subordinate hypothesis of research is rejected. Table 3: The results of model estimation EP i,t = MBVA i,t ROA i,t SIZE i,t + ε i,t Explanatory variable Coefficient Standard deviation t The probability of t (meaningfulness level) constant MBVA i,t ROA i,t SIZE i,t Statistics Determination The probability of 0.00 Adjusted determination Durbin Watson Second subordinate hypothesis of research stated that there is a meaningful relationship between the ratio of market value of equity to book value of equity and earnings stability. In order to study the meaningfulness of independent variable of the ratio of market value of equity to book value of equity, we can state H 0 and H 1 at error level of 5 percent as follows: H 0 : there is not a meaningful relationship between the ratio of market value of equity to book value of equity and earnings stability. H 0 :β 1 =0 H 1 : there is a meaningful relationship between the ratio of market value of equity to book value of equity and earnings stability. H 1 :β 1 0 According to the following table, the value of the probability of F Limer is that shows the use of panel data method. In addition, the value of the probability of Hasman test is that H 0 is rejected, and the use of fixed effects method is confirmed. Table 4: The results of F Limer and Hasman tests EP i,t =β 0 +β 1 MBVE i,t +β 2 ROA i,t + β 3 SIZE i,t + ε i,t The kind of test value The meaningfulness level of conclusion F Limer test Panel data method Hasman test Fixed effects method Copyright 2014 Centre for Info Bio Technology (CIBTech) 2452

6 2014 Vol. 4 (S4), pp /Parvin and Mehrdad According to the probability of calculated F in the following table at error level of 5 percent H 0 is rejected (0.05>0.000). This means that the model is meaningful, and at least one of the s of regression model is opposite Zero. In addition, according to the following table the value of estimate determination shows that about 37 percent of changes of dependent variable are explained by control and independent variables. This shows the medium relation of control and independent variables with dependent variable. According to the extent of presented Durbin Watson in the following table, we can find that there is not first type self regression. Consequently, model is suitable in terms of meaningfulness and the power of fitness. In addition, selfregression is not seen the model. Finally, presented results in the following table show that second subordinate hypothesis of research is rejected. Table 5: The results of model estimation EP i,t = MBVE i,t ROA i,t SIZE i,t + ε i,t Explanatory variable Coefficient Standard deviation t The probability of t (meaningfulness level) constant MBVA i,t ROA i,t SIZE i,t Statistics Determination The probability of 0.00 Adjusted determination Durbin Watson Third subordinate hypothesis of research stated that there is a meaningful relationship between the ratio of market value of assets to book fixed visible assets and earnings stability In order to study the meaningfulness of independent variable of the ratio of market value of assets to fixed visible assets, we can state H 0 and H 1 at error level of 5 percent as follows: H 0 : there is not a meaningful relationship between the ratio of market value of assets to fixed visible assets and earnings stability. H 0 :β 1 =0 H 1 : there is a meaningful relationship between the ratio of market value of assets to fixed visible assets and earnings stability. H 1 :β 1 0 According to the following table, the value of the probability of F Limer is that shows the use of panel data method. In addition, the value of the probability of Hasman test is that H 0 is rejected, and the use of fixed effects method is confirmed. Table 6: The results of F Limer and Haman tests EP i,t =β 0 +β 1 MBVA i,t +β 2 ROA i,t + β 3 SIZE i,t + ε i,t The kind of test value The meaningfulness level of conclusion F Limer test Panel data method Hasman test Fixed effects method Copyright 2014 Centre for Info Bio Technology (CIBTech) 2453

7 2014 Vol. 4 (S4), pp /Parvin and Mehrdad According to the probability of calculated F in the following table at error level of 5 percent H 0 is rejected (0.05>0.000). This means that the model is meaningful, and at least one of the s of regression model is opposite Zero. In addition, according to the following table the value of estimate determination shows that about 36 percent of changes of dependent variable are explained by control and independent variables. This shows the medium relation of control and independent variables with dependent variable. According to the extent of presented Durbin Watson in the following table, we can find that there is not first type self regression. Consequently, model is suitable in terms of meaningfulness and the power of fitness. In addition, selfregression is not seen the model. Finally, presented results in the following table show that third subordinate hypothesis of research is rejected. Table 7: The results of model estimation EP i,t = FAMVA i,t ROA i,t SIZE i,t + ε i,t Explanatory variable Coefficient Standard deviation t The probability of t (meaningfulness level) constant FAMVA i,t ROA i,t SIZE i,t Statistics Determination The probability of 0.00 Adjusted determination Durbin Watson According to the obtain results from testing subordinate hypotheses of research, main hypothesis of research is rejected. This means that there is not a meaningful relationship between investment opportunities and earnings stability of firms in Tehran securities exchange. CONCLUSION In order to study main hypothesis, there subordinate hypotheses have been defined. Then, based on the results obtained from testing theses subordinate hypotheses we conclude regarding rejection or acceptance of main hypothesis. According to the obtained results it is seen that there is not a meaningful relationship between the ratios of book value of assets to market value of assets, market value of equity to book value of equity, and market value of assets to fixed visible assets and earnings stability. According to the obtained results from testing subordinate hypotheses of research, main hypothesis of research is rejected. This means that there is not a meaningful relationship between investment opportunities and earnings stability of firms in Tehran securities exchange. According to the findings of research it is suggested that actual and potential investors consider the profitability situation of return on equity, the trend of reported earnings in the past and its changes. In addition, according to the importance of different characteristic of earnings in point of view of investors as the most important users of financial statements it is suggested to integrate the subject of earnings quality and its measures including earnings stability as one of the discussions of financial accounting in textbooks of accounting field. Copyright 2014 Centre for Info Bio Technology (CIBTech) 2454

8 2014 Vol. 4 (S4), pp /Parvin and Mehrdad REFERENCES DeAngelo H, DeAngelo L and Stulz RM (2006). Dividend Policy and the Earned/Contributed Capital Mix: A Test of the LifeCycle Theory. Journal of Financial Economics 81(2) Dechow P and Dichev I (2012). The Quality of Accruals and Earnings: the Role of Accruals in Estimation Errors. The Accounting Review Dopuch N, Mashruwala R, Seethamraju C and Zach T (2005). Accrual Determinates, Sales Changes and Their Impact on Empirical Accrual Models. Working Paper Washington University. Ghanati Maitham (2010). Study the relationship between the variables of the lack of confidence in cash flow, capital composition, investment opportunities and the policy of earnings payment in Tehran securities exchange. MSC thesis, Islamic Azad University, Arak Branch. Iatridis G (2010). International Financial Reporting Standards and the Quality of Financial Statement Information. International Review of Financial Analysis 19(2). Modares Ahmad and Abaszadeh Mohammad Reza (2008). Analytical study of predictability impact of accrual components, accrual flows and cash flows on the stability of predicted earnings. Knowledge and Development Magazine Nauravesh Iraq, Nazemi Amin and Haydari Mehdi (2006). Earnings stability with emphasis on the role of estimation error of accrual items. Auditing and Accounting Studies Periodical Penman S and Zhang X (2002). Accounting Conservatism, the Quality Earnings, and Stock Returns. The Accounting Review 77(2) Richardson SA, Sloan RG, Soliman MT and Tuna I (2004). Accrual Reliability, Earnings Persistence and Stock Prices. Working paper University of Michigan. Scott RW, Wan X, Sha J and Connolly E (2010). Corporate Social Responsibility Initiatives: An Analysis and Financial Performance. South Asian Journal of Management Thaqafi Ali and Kordestani Gholam Reza (2004). Study the relationship between earnings quality and market reaction to the changes of cash earnings. Auditing and Accounting Studies Periodical Copyright 2014 Centre for Info Bio Technology (CIBTech) 2455

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