Monitoring of Torzhkovskaya 16 St. Petersburg

Transcription

1 Monitoring of Torzhkovskaya 16 St. Petersburg Februar 2004

2 Page 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 1 SUMMARY 3 2 PROJECT PARTICIPANTS 4 3 INTRODUCTION 4 4 THE MONITORING PROGRAMME Daily registrations Data loggers 6 5 RESULTS 6 6 FEASIBILITY STUDY Scenario Scenario Scenario Conclusion of the feasibility study Joint implementation 13 7 LESSONS LEARNED 13 Photo No. 1:Torzhkovskaya 16 before renovation

3 Page 3 1 SUMMARY VELUX International A S was leading a consortium of a.o. Danfoss A/S, Grundfos A/S and Rockwool A/S, which undertook the renovation of the dwelling house at Torzhkovskaya 16 in St. Petersburg. Construction of an attic comprising nine apartments was part of the project. The dwelling house was provided with external insulation, the windows were sealed, and thermostatic valves installed at the radiators. Carl Bro a s was invited to monitor the changed energy consumption during a heating season. Photo No. 2: Torzhkovskaya 16 after the renovation The monitoring programme revealed that the energy consumption for heating decreased to approximately 35-40% compared to a neighbouring block, Torzhkovskaya 14. The uncertainty of this result is due to the fact that the indoor temperatures in the renovated block was significantly higher than in the reference block, which in certain periods could hardly maintain 20º C in the flats. The measured 60% energy saving is registered by the heat meters during the coldest day of the monitoring period. During the warmer days, the difference between the two dwelling blocks reached 30%, giving almost 70% savings. The energy saving derives from the external insulation and the automatic control equipment, which prevent overheating of the apartments. If we adjust the measured energy saving by the difference in indoor temperatures between the two buildings, it can be concluded that the annual energy saving from the renovation is approximately 67% (33% energy consumption in the project building compared to the reference building). The measured and calculated change in the design heat demand is approximately 38% of the originally designed heat demand.

4 Page 4 The programme also revealed that the present operation of the district heating system is too inefficient to keep steady indoor temperatures, and that the existing obsolete installations are inadequate at lower outdoor temperatures. The feasibility study concludes that the project is feasible with a 10-year pay back period. However, this assumes that it is Western investors, who will be satisfied with a 5% interest rate of their investment. For Russian investors the investment will hardly be feasible within a lifetime, because of the high internal interest rates in Russia. Both conclusions are based on a rapid and significant increase in the heat tariff price. The feasibility study indicates that this type of project will be obvious for future Joint Implementation (JI), as it fulfils the additionallity criteria. 2 PROJECT PARTICIPANTS Client 1: Danish Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs Client 2: A consortium of Danfoss A/S, Grundfos A/S, Rockwool and VELUX International A/S lead by VELUX International A/S. Local coordinator: Mr Dmitry Vetrov, Velux International A/S Local Carl Bro consultant: Elvira Moukhametshina Consultant: Peter Sonne, Carl Bro a s. 3 INTRODUCTION The renovation of Torzhkovskaya 16 was undertaken from 1999 to 2000 by a consortium headed by the Danish company Velux International A/S. The renovation included construction of an attic with nine modern apartments. The original building was given an external insulation, the windows were sealed, and all radiators were equipped with thermostatic valves. The Danish consultancy company Carl Bro a s was invited to monitor the heat consumption and specify the heat savings achieved through the renovation. The monitoring programme was undertaken during two heating seasons from 2001 to The basic principle for the monitoring programme was a comparison between the renovated building and the neighbouring dwelling block, Torzhkovskaya 14. The two dwelling blocks were identical in size and function. The monitoring programme was scheduled for one season only, but due to a number of obstacles encountered during the installation of the heat meters, the programme was extended by the following winter. In the summer of 2002 the substation in Torzhkovskaya 14 was renovated, and the already installed heat meter somehow vanished. It was not found and installed again until 5 December The complete monitoring programme ran until May The renovation of Torzhkovskaya 14 only comprised replacement of the existing equipment with equipment of the same function.

5 Page 5 4 THE MONITORING PROGRAMME Photo No. 3: Heat installation in the substation The monitoring programme was initiated in the autumn of The programme comprised the two main parts and a photo session: Daily registration of heat consumption, flow and temperatures by means of energy meters Automatic hourly registration of temperatures by means of loggers placed in various places of the buildings Infrared photos of the blocks for visual comparison The monitoring focused on the following heating periods: 1st period: 20 December April nd period: 20 September April 2003 The renovation of Torzhkovskaya 16 was performed to reduce the loss of heat from the building, but did not include renovation of the hot water supply for the entire building, which remained untouched. Loggers have registered the temperature for hot tap water all year round, but the evaluation of these results is only presented for the winter periods.

6 Page 6 Photo No. 4: The heat meter of a substation 4.1 Daily registrations Two heat meters were installed in the substations: one in Torzhkovskaya 14 and one in Torzhkovskaya 16. Both meters were placed at the main heat supply pipe for each building. These meters were read manually for heat and water flow on a daily basis along with the reading of primary supply and return temperature. 4.2 Data loggers Twenty-five loggers were installed in the following places: In Torzhkovskaya 14 and 16, respectively, 4 loggers were placed in the basement: One logger on the primary supply pipe, the second on the primary return pipe, the third on the secondary supply pipe, and the fourth on the hot water supply pipe One logger was installed outside to register the outdoor temperature Seven loggers were placed in various apartments in Torzhkovskaya 14 The remaining 9 loggers were installed in various apartments in Torzhkovskaya16 including the new apartments in the attic Some loggers had a malfunction for short periods, but the erroneous data was deleted before evaluation. 5 RESULTS The background for the project is the construction of the new apartments in the attic and the external insulation of the remaining part of the building. Internally in the apartments all radiators were equipped with thermostatic valves. The heating system for the new attic apartments is constructed as an independent system, without interfering with the original system. This design fits the monitoring programme, because it permits direct comparison of the metering of the heat consumption with the reference block, and the heat consumption in the attic apartments is separated.

7 Page 7 At first, the intention was through the project to map the heat consumption in all parts of the building and to make a comparison with the reference building. However, due to missing authority permissions, the heat system to the attic apartments was disconnected. For this reason, the apartments were empty. During the entire monitoring period the attic apartments were kept free from frost by electrical heating. Torzhkovskaya 16 Temperatures in attic apartment Temperature October October November November December December January January January February February March March April April May May Heating season Figure No. 1: Outdoor temperatures and attic temperatures during the winter season Because of the state of affairs as to the attic apartments, we made the assumption for the monitoring programme that the attic construction would simulate an additional insulation of the roof, in line with the external insulation of the walls. By this assumption, the task of the monitoring programme consisted of a comparison between two identical buildings. The difference is that the project building is insulated at the walls and on the roof. Because the heating system to the attic is independent, it will always be possible at a later stage to verify the heat consumption in the attic. One heat meter in each dwelling block measured the heat consumption of the entire block. This means that we only have registrations of the total consumption for the blocks. We did not have the possibility to divide the consumption between the individual apartments. From the temperature registrations in the apartments it is seen that there is a 2.1º C indoor temperature difference in average between the two blocks and a difference of about 4º C between the top floor apartments of the two blocks.

8 Page 8 Because we did not monitor the energy consumption for the top floor apartments, the above-mentioned difference of 4º C will not be used any further. The general difference in the indoor temperature of about 2.1º C between the two blocks is used to calculate the adjusted energy saving under the assumption of similar indoor temperatures. The Terms of Reference require that the various installations for energy saving be ranked. It was originally assumed that different measures would be evaluated for their energy efficiency. Examples of such measures, which were not specified, would be: External insulation Automatic heat control performed in substations Heat consumption in the attic versus the rest of the building With regard to the executed monitoring programme the only issue which finally was evaluated is the external insulation at Torzhkovskaya 16. The issues for automatic heat control and the independent attic heat system were never commissioned during the monitoring period. External insulation The external insulation refers to two activities; external insulation and installation of thermostatic valves. The external insulation and the thermostatic valves are two closely related measures and should not be considered as two individual means for energy saving. The reason for emphasizing this point is our observation of indoor temperatures below normal comfort levels in the reference building. This indicates that thermostatic valves installed without external insulation of the building would not save any heat. Insulation of the building without installing thermostatic valves would not save any heat either, because then the building would be overheated and the tenants would open their windows. Automatic heat control at substations As for the substations we notice that there have been no modifications to the technical heat installations. Plans for modernising the installations in the substation exist, but are yet to obtain authority approval. Heat consumption in the attic During the entire period of the monitoring program the attic apartments have been kept from freezing by electric heating performed with lamps. The installed radiators for water carried heating were never commissioned. It was therefore not possible to register the heat consumption at normal conditions and compare this to the situation in the rest of the block. Ranking of individual energy saving measures It is therefore not possible to rank the various energy saving initiatives of the project, because only one measure has been executed and evaluated.

9 Page 9 The monitoring programme shows heat savings for the whole season of 62%, or 38% energy consumption in the rehabilitated house compared to the reference block. Because of the more efficient energy distribution system, the difference in heat consumption between the reconstructed block and the reference house was registered to be 30% on warmer days and 40% on colder days. Photo No. 5: Infrared photos (right) and normal photos (left) of Torzhkovskaya 16 (top) and Torzhkovskaya 14 (bottom) The average indoor temperatures in the flats were 21.6º C in the reconstructed block and 19.5º C in the reference block. An increase of almost 2º C. Assuming the value of energy to be about 2.5% per degree of the indoor temperature, which is calculated from the total season degree days, the adjustment to the measurement shall be 5%. The measured energy saving of 62% shall be adjusted for the difference in the indoor temperature. This gives an adjusted energy saving of 67%. The infrared photos were taken in February during the evening. The photos clearly demonstrate the efficiency of the building insulation. The photos show the gable of the two blocks day and night. The photos at the bottom show the reference block with the huge heat loss. The complete report of the infrared photo session has been delivered to VELUX International A/S. 6 FEASIBILITY STUDY The feasibility study focuses on the part of the project, which consists of the external insulation and the installation of thermostatic valves. The investments in the external insulation and the thermostatic valves, including the modifications of the pipe system, were around USD 100,000. The heat saving for one heating season is estimated to be 460 MWh, which corresponds to 396 Gcal.

10 Page 10 For consumers in St. Petersburg, as clients of the heat supplier GUPTEK, the price of heat for the season was Rubles 400 per Gcal. This equals approximately 13 $/Gcal. Cost of facade insulation USD Cost of internal heat system USD Total cost of insulation and valves USD Annual energy saving MWh 460 Gcal 396 Heat tariff today in St. Petersburg Rbl/Gcal 400 USD/Gcal 13,33 For all the following scenarios the renovation cost is assumed to remain unchanged. The further assumptions of the scenarios are: Scenario 1: Present heat tariff unchanged. Interest rate lower than 5% p.a. Scenario 2: The heat tariff is increased by 20% and the interest rate is 15% p.a., which reflects the Russian market today. Scenario 3: The heat tariff is increased by 20% and the interest rate is set to 5% p.a., which reflects today s international market. 6.1 Scenario 1 Scenario 1 assumes that the present heat tariff will be maintained. The interest rate is set to 5%, which matches the level for international financing. Scenario 1 Assumptions Basically no change in heat tariffs Interest rate < 5% Pay back time 54 years In this situation, the pay back period will be around 50 years. The conclusion is that it will be a poor investment. One of the reasons for the poor result is the low payment for heat.

11 Page Scenario 2 A rise in the price of heat is inevitable in the coming years. Today, the heat tariffs in Russia are artificially low. It is an ongoing discussion internally in Russia how rapidly the tariffs should reach the level of the international market. The fuel (and gas) suppliers want to cut down in the supply to the home market and instead export to Western Europe. New pipe connections in the gas grid to the western market increase this possibility and consequently also the pressure on the home market to increase prices. In scenario 2 the tariff price on heat is increased by 20% compared to scenario 1, until it reaches the international market price for gas supply from main suppliers. Because of Russia current economic situation, the interest rate for local investments is significantly higher than 5%. In case the project should be financed in Russia, we assume an interest rate of 15%: Scenario 2 Assumptions Increase of tariff to Western marked Tariff increase 20% Interest rate = 15% Pay back time 25 years The result is a pay back time of 25 years, which must be considered to be poorly feasible, as there are no credit institutions in Russia, as we know them in Denmark. 6.3 Scenario 3 Assuming international financing the interest rates today would be significantly lower than internally in Russia. We therefore assume an interest rate of 5% for the project. The tariff price on heat in scenario 3 is increased by 20% compared to scenario 1, until it reaches the international market price for gas supply from main suppliers. Scenario 3 Assumptions Increase of tariff to Western marked Tariff increase 20% Interest rate = 5% Pay back time 10 years

12 Page 12 With the interest rate set at 5%, the pay back time becomes around 10 years. This must be considered as a feasible investment. However, it may be difficult for a housing society to enter the international market for finance. We assume that this will only be possible if the project is presented in relation to other aspects. Examples of such aspects would be Joint Implementation project or the sale of the attic apartments. Joint implementation One of the possibilities could be the coming Joint Implementation mechanisms, which will become a reality if Russia ratifies the Kyoto Protocol. The individual Joint Implementation project shall be based on conditions of additionallity, financially and technically. The condition for technical additionallity is covered by the present project, because the increased insulation and thermostatic valves are rarely applied in Russia. The condition for financial additionallity is also fulfilled because, as seen from the present feasibility study, the project only becomes feasible with international financing or other additional grant finance sources. Sale of attic apartments The possible sale of the attic apartments only improves the feasibility with this situation. The profit from the sale should contribute to the financing of the external insulation. 6.4 Conclusion of the feasibility study The feasibility study is based on simple principles. The main input parameters are investments and savings. The parameters, which can be questioned, are the interest rate and the development in heat tariffs. Based on today s tariffs we conclude that it has been a very poor investment. However, nobody believes this to be a sustainable situation. The market will change, as will the tariffs and the interest rate. It is a general assumption that the fuel price from the suppliers will soon reach international levels. The government may decide to tax the heat and fuels as it is widely seen in Western countries. In this situation, the feasibility of the investment will increase. The interest rate for the investment is set to 5%, assuming Western investments. The interest rates internally in Russia today are considerably higher, approx %. At such high interest rates, the investment will only be feasible if the heat tariff is significantly increased. The conclusion of the feasibility study is that the investment is feasible for a Western investor, as we believe that the price of heat will increase significantly in the coming years. However, for a local investor the investment will hardly be feasible, because of the heated economy in Russia today, where interest rates around 15-20% are normal.

13 Page Joint implementation If Russia ratifies the Kyoto Protocol, this type of project is an obvious choice for a Joint Implementation project (JI), because it fulfils the criteria for additionallity. The problem and uncertainty of the project is the administration of the investments and the benefits. The CO 2 reduction will benefit the heat supplier; whereas the end-user and the owner of the buildings will carry the investments in external heat insulation and reconstruction of the heat distribution system. In cases where the owner of the building and the heat supplier is the same entity, the project is administratively possible. As the municipality of St. Petersburg is the owner of the heat supply company GUPTEK, projects all the dwelling blocks also owned by the municipality should be administratively possible. There are obvious perspectives in such developments. 7 LESSONS LEARNED The project was initiated in November 2001, and even though only few tasks were to be performed, it may have been possible to predict that the project could not be executed during that season. We have seen from many projects that even small implementation tasks in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) take time, and a period of at least three months should always be included. Evidently, this also became the case in this situation. The caretaker of the neighbourhood, Mr Kontratovich, has influenced the entire project period due to his limited will to co-operate. During the last part of the monitoring period, unfortunately, he was hospitalised and his duties were taken over by his substitute. Examples of the obstructions to the project include the following: withholding keys and thereby denying access to the reference block, dismantling the installed heat meter in the reference block in the early part of the second heating season. The co-operation with the local Velux representative, Mr Dmitry Vetrov, went smoothly, and he put up a good struggle during the execution of the project. At an early stage we discovered that the sensors at the thermostatic valves were not installed in all the apartments in Torzhkovskaya 16. A notice of the missing sensors was given to the project management, and soon after the sensors were installed and instructions on their operation were given to the tenants.

14 Page 14 Hermitage Pavillion in the upper Park of Tsarskoye Selo (the part in front of Ekaterininsky Palace) in Pushkin. Architectors: Rastrelli and Chevakinsky. Mid 18th century. It was built during Catherine the Great's reign for her pleasures. The French translation is "the place of privacy".