With that as the economic backdrop, how does one explain the S&P 500 index posting a gain of 3.8% for the first 6 months? The positives are:

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1 The Sizemore Group at Morgan Stanley June 30, 2016 When in our last newsletter we forecast continued volatility, we severely underestimated our ability. The VIX volatility index has increased 18% year-to-date closer to historically normal levels. To state the obvious, this has been an eventful year. To recount the first 6 months of the year: Slowdown in GDP growth to 1.7% from 3.1% in 2015 resulting in the threat of recession The Chinese currency depreciation of approximately 10%, making Chinese goods less expensive Oil declined to $25 a barrel from $37.13 at the start of 2016 Negative interest rates in Germany and Japan Brexit caused a quick drop in global market stock prices, averaging negative 5.1% for the MSCI All Country World Index Federal Reserve issued statements of concern amid worries related to the impact of Brexit and slowing job growth and may not raise rates previously as expected With that as the economic backdrop, how does one explain the S&P 500 index posting a gain of 3.8% for the first 6 months? The positives are: GDP growth appears to be accelerating from an anemic 1 st quarter under 1% with the 2 nd quarter is projected at 2% Fiscal policy is set to become more accommodative as concern for infrastructure in the US and EU government spending for refugees increases Oil prices rebounding to $50 a barrel resulted in the expectation of fewer defaults in the oil patch yet more disposable funds for consumers versus last year Increased spending as personal consumption expenditures rose 3.7% in the first 6 months of the year and disposable personal income rose 4.1% Inflation remains low at 1.1% and the unemployment rate declined to 4.7% Consumer confidence remains in good range as the US IBM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has increased for the year The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index (LEI) has increased 1.2% year over year (LEI is a composite of the leading, coincident, and lagging economic indicators in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle and summarize and reveal common turning point patterns) *All figures courtesy of Thomson Reuters BELOW ARE MORGAN STANLEY FORECASTS AND PERFORMANCE OF VARIOUS SECTORS COMBINED WITH VALUATION METRICS. If you would like to see a copy of the full report, please contact us. With the low historic interest rates and reasonable valuation metrics, we favor equities over bonds. We think International Developed markets are more attractive than the US markets and are overweight in that area. Note the returns in the Asset Class Performance and Heat Map on page 3 over one, 5, 10, and 20 years. As proponents of reversion to the mean, we favor US Large Cap value, excluding utilities and telecomm, and Europe Emerging Markets. The following look over valued: US fixed income, REITS US mid cap value, utilities, consumer staples and telecomm.

2 S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points Page 2 S&P 500 Valuation Measures

3 Page 3 P/E Ratios and Equity Returns The above charts from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and JPMorgan Asset Management argue for somewhat muted returns in the US for the next several years. Just as bond markets are hitting all-time lows in yield, bond-proxy stocks those sectors with low beta, high bond market correlation and perceived low volatility have gotten bid up. By our proprietary composite valuation indicator that looks at relative price/earnings and price/book ratios, utilities are at an 8% discount to the S&P 500, which puts them in the 90th percentile of the 30-year relative valuation history (see chart at right); similarly, consumer staples, at a 45% premium to the market, is in the 70th percentile, which also makes it expensive. On this basis, only telecoms, whose 3% discount puts it in the 29th percentile, look fairly valued. Bond-Proxy Stocks Have Become Relatively Expensive Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC as of June 30, 2016

4 Page 4 Market Indices and Data (through 6/30/16) Consulting Group Daily Market Barometer Index YTD Index YTD Index YTD Balanced W 60/30/ % MSCI World +1.0% BC Interm Govt/Credit +4.4% S&P % MSCI EAFE -4.0% 10 Yr US Treasury Yld 1.5% DJ Industrial Average +4.3% MSCI Europe -5.0% 30 Yr US Treasury Yld 2.3% NASDAQ Composite -2.6% MSCI Emerging Markets +6.5% Consumer Price Index +0.2%* CBOE Market Volatility (VIX) -14.2% MSCI BRIC +4.6% Bloomberg Commodity Index +1.9% Unemployment Rate 4.9% MSCI Japan -5.7% Gold Futures $1, Crude Oil Futures (WTI) $48.33 Payroll Employment +287,000 Productivity (3/31/16) -0.6% *As of 5/2016 The Sizemore Group at Morgan Stanley Bing Sizemore, Senior Institutional Consultant, Alternative Investments Director, Wealth Advisor Skip Sizemore, Senior Investment Management Consultant, Alternative Investments Director, Wealth Advisor Bennett Dunn, Executive Financial Services Director, Portfolio Manager, Financial Advisor, CIMA Shelley Lucas Bennett, Financial Advisor, CFP Erica Jevons Sizemore, Business Development Associate, Financial Planning Associate Nichole Griffin, Senior Registered Associate Jillian Pain, Registered Associate, Financial Planning Associate 3737 Glenwood Avenue, Suite 320, Raleigh, NC Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC Member SIPC. CRC# /8/16

5 Page 5 Index Definitions Investments may not be made directly into an index. Balanced world benchmark is a blend of 60% of the MSCI World Index and 30% of the Barclays US Government/Credit Bond and 10% of the US Treasury bills index (A short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. government with a maturity of less than one year.) Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index - The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index covers the U.S. Dollar-denominated, investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable bond market segment of SEC-registered securities. The index includes bonds from the U.S. Treasury, Government-Related, Corporate, Mortgage-Backed, Asset- Backed, and Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities sectors. An investment cannot be made directly in a market index. Barclays Capital Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index is a total return index consisting of investment grade corporate debt issues as well as debt issues of U.S. government agencies and the U.S. Treasury. The debt issues all maintain maturities within a range of one to 9.99 years. Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of the 30 blue-chip stocks and serves as a measure of the U.S. market, covering such diverse industries as financial services, technology, retail, entertainment and consumer goods. An investment cannot be made directly in a market index. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged, market value-weighted index of 500 stocks generally representative of the broad stock market. NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all NASDAQ domestic and non-u.s. common stocks listed on NASDAQ stock market. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. As of May , the MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 21 emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. As of May 30, 2011, the MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 22 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. As of May , the MSCI World Index consists of the following 24 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The MSCI BRIC Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the following four emerging market country indices: Brazil, Russia, India and China. The MSCI Europe Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in Europe. The MSCI Europe Index consists of the following 16 developed market country indices: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The 10-year Treasury is a debt owed by the United States government for a period of ten years. Each note has a stated interest rate, which is paid semi-annually. Because the United States is seen as a very low-risk borrower, many investors see 10-year Treasury Note interest rates as indicative of the wider bond market. Normally, the interest rate decreases with greater demand for the Notes and rises with lower demand. For example, in December 2008, 10-year interest rates were the lowest in history due to deteriorating economic conditions and the consequent desire of investors for low-risk investments. The 30-year Treasury is a debt owed by the United States government for a period of thirty years. Each note has a stated interest rate, which is paid semi-annually. Because the United States is seen as a very low-risk borrower, many investors see 30-year Treasury Note interest rates as indicative of the wider bond market. NYMEX WTI Crude Oil is an index for crude stream produced in Texas and southern Oklahoma which serves as a reference or marker for pricing a number of crude streams and is traded in the domestic spot market at Cushing, Oklahoma. The Daily Spot WTI is the price in U.S. dollars per barrel. NYMEX Gold is an index tracking the spot gold price or common standard for the value of an ounce of gold on the New York Mercantile Stock Exchange. Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. Alerian MLP: A composite of the 50 most prominent energy Master Limited Partnerships that provides investors with an unbiased, comprehensive benchmark for this emerging asset class. The index, which is calculated using a float-adjusted, capitalization-weighted methodology, is disseminated real-time on a price-return basis and on a total-return basis. Disclosures* The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that this investment strategy will work under all market conditions. Holdings are subject to change daily, so any securities discussed in this profile may or may not be included in your account if you invest in this investment strategy. Do not assume that any holdings mentioned were, or will be, profitable. The performance, holdings, sector weightings, portfolio traits and other data for an actual account may differ from that in this material due to various factors including the size of an account, cash flows within an account, and restrictions on an account. Material in this presentation has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or timeliness. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data they provide and are not liable for any damages relating to this data. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management has no obligation to notify you when information in this presentation changes. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall; generally the longer a bond's maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Bonds may also be subject to call risk, which is the risk that the issuer will redeem the debt at its option, fully or partially, before the scheduled maturity date. The market value of debt instruments may fluctuate, and proceeds from sales prior to maturity may be more or less than the amount originally invested or the maturity value due to changes in market conditions or changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Bonds are subject to the credit risk of the issuer. This is the risk that the issuer might be unable to make interest and/or principal payments on a timely basis. Bonds are also subject to reinvestment risk, which is the risk that principal and/or interest payments from a given investment may be reinvested at a lower interest rate. Bonds rated below investment grade may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those of other securities, including greater credit risk and price volatility in the secondary market. Investors should be careful to consider these risks alongside their individual circumstances, objectives and risk tolerance before investing in high-yield bonds. High yield bonds should comprise only a limited portion of a balanced portfolio. Alternative investments often are speculative and include a high degree of risk. Investors could lose all or a substantial amount of their investment. Alternative investments are suitable only for eligible, long-term investors who are willing to forgo liquidity and put capital at risk for an indefinite period of time. They may be highly illiquid and can engage in leverage and other speculative practices that may increase the volatility and risk of loss. Funds of funds typically have higher fees than single manager vehicles as they are subject to an additional layer of fees charged by the fund of funds manager. Alternative investments involve complex tax structures, tax inefficient investing and delays in distributing important tax information. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of a fund carefully before investing. International investing may not be suitable for every investor and is subject to risks, including currency fluctuations, political factors, withholding, lack of liquidity, the absence of adequate financial information, and exchange control restrictions impacting foreign issuers. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are (rolled-up) limited partnerships or limited liability companies that are taxed as partnerships and whose interests (limited partnership units or limited liability company units) are traded on securities exchanges like shares of common stock. Currently, most MLPs operate in the energy, natural resources or real estate sectors. Investments in MLP interests are subject to the risks generally applicable to companies in the energy and natural resources sectors, including commodity pricing risk, supply and demand risk, depletion risk and exploration risk. Because of their narrow focus, MLPs maintain exposure to price volatility of commodities and/or underlying assets and tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies. MLPs are also subject to additional risks including: investors having limited control and rights to vote on matters affecting the MLP, limited access to capital, cash flow risk, lack of liquidity, dilution risk, conflict of interests, and limited call rights related to acquisitions. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. This material does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The strategies and/or investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a Financial Advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor s individual circumstances and objectives.