HOW WELL IS NEW JERSEY PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE

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1 HOW WELL IS NEW JERSEY PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012

2 Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All?! The Economic Imperative: A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school and all students need to be academically prepared to compete for good jobs in the global economy.! The Equity Imperative: Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for success. Students in minority groups drop out and fail to attain postsecondary credentials at much higher rates than their counterparts.! The Expectations Imperative: The bar has been set too low for too long, keeping students from reaching their full potential, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities.! What Does it Mean to be College- and Career-Ready? To be college- and career-ready, high school graduates must have studied a rigorous and broad curriculum anchored in the demands of postsecondary and business that is grounded in the core academic disciplines, but also consisting of other subjects that are part of a well-rounded education. 2

3 THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE: A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NO LONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESS The changing economy is accelerating the skills mismatch, as careers increasingly require some education/training beyond high school, and more developed knowledge and skills

4 Why College and Career Readiness Is Imperative for Our Economic Future! Employer Expectations: Employers increasingly need their employees to use a broader set of skills than have been required in the past to meet the increasingly complex demand coming from the modernized workplace.! Skills Mismatch: While fifty years ago a large proportion of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less, today only one-fifth of jobs are considered unskilled. The demand for higher skilled workers has increased, while the production of higher skilled workers has remained flat.! International Advantage: Other nations are surpassing the U.S. in improving their educational systems to increase achievement, reduce achievement gaps, and educating themselves as a way to a better economy, while the U.S. remains stagnant.! Personal Benefits: More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment. Educational attainment isn t just a benefit in the short-term; more education is correlated with larger projections of lifetime earnings at every level of the pipeline. 4

5 Employer Expectations: Education and Training and Requirements Over Time % Percentage of Workforce by Education Level 11% 10% High School Dropout 40% 30% 28% High School Graduate 12% 27% 29% Some College / Associate's Degree 16% 32% 33% Bachelor's & Higher 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/fullreport.pdf 5

6 Employer Expectations: Increased Demand for Postsecondary Education and Training 19% Percent Change in Employment, by Education or Training Category, % 18 17% 17% 13% 25% 20% 15% 8% 8% 8% 8% 10% 5% 0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook, Edition

7 Employer Expectations: The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs High-skill jobs! Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories.! Often require four-year degrees and above Middle-skill jobs! Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving. Low-skill jobs! Occupations in the service and agricultural categories. Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor s degree), including associate s degrees, vocational certificates, and significant on-the-job training. Source: Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009). The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs. Brookings Institution. 7

8 Employer Expectations: Employment Shares by Occupational Skill Level High Skill Middle Skill Low Skill 29% 52% 19% U.S. (2009) 33% New Jersey (2009) 48% 19% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: National Skills Coalition (2010). The Bridge to a New Economy: Worker Training Fills the Gap. ; National Skills Coalition (2011). State Middle Skill Fact Sheets. 8

9 The Skills Mismatch: Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces New Jersey s Supply In 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less. Today, 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled. One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level.! 81% of New Jersey s jobs are middle or high skills (jobs that require some postsecondary education or training).! Yet only 45% of New Jersey s adults have some postsecondary degree (associate s or higher). Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform. Education Testing Services. ; Skills to Compete. National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. 9

10 The Skills Mismatch: Jobs Are Going Unfilled! 52% of employers reported difficulty in finding the right talent, up from 14% in 2010.! This is the highest U.S. percentage reported in ManPower Group s annual survey s six-year history.! Another 30% of companies, surveyed by McKinsey & Co, said they had job opening for six months or more because of lack of ideal/ qualified candidates. Source: ManPower Group. (2011) Talent Shortage Survey & McKinsey Global Institute (2011). An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America s Future. & Bureau of Labor Statistics 10

11 International Advantage: Increased Competition from Abroad! While the benefits of graduating high school college- and career-ready and attaining some postsecondary credential affects each individual student, it also impacts our standing as a nation in an increasingly competitive global economy and workforce.! Education attainment and achievement in the U.S. have gone stagnant at a time when the global economy is demanding increased education and more complex skills and other countries are responding. U.S. students rank 12 th in reading, 13 th in science, and 24 th in math on international testing. Source: OECD, PISA 2009 Database. Statlink 11

12 International Advantage: America s International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates New Jersey U.S. Korea Poland Canada Israel Germany Denmark Ireland Norway Netherlands U.K. Iceland % Young Adults (25-34) with HS Diploma+ % Adults (25-64) with HS Diploma+ Source: OECD. Education at a Glance (All rates are self-reported) education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. 12

13 International Advantage: America s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment New Jersey U.S. Korea Canada Japan Norway Ireland Denmark Israel Belgium France Spain U.K % Young Adults (25-34) with College Degree % Adults (25-64) with College Degree Source: OECD. Education at a Glance (All rates are self-reported.) education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. 13

14 International Advantage: America s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment % of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006) ALL (25-64) 1 U.S. (40%) Canada (44%) Canada (54%) Korea (58%) Canada (49%) 2 Canada (40%) Japan (43%) Japan (48%) Canada (56%) Japan (43%) 3 N.Z. (34%) U.S. (40%) Finland (44%) Japan (55%) U.S. (41%) 4 Finland (29%) N.Z. (38%) U.S. (43%) N.Z. (48%) N.Z. (40%) 5 Australia (28%) Finland (37%) Korea (43%) Norway (46%) Finland (37%) 6 Norway (28%) Australia (33%) N.Z. (40%) Ireland (45%) Korea (37%) 7 Switz. (27%) Denmark (32%) Norway (38%) Denmark (43%) Norway (36%) 8 U.K. (27%) Norway (32%) Australia (38%) Belgium (42%) Australia (36%) 9 Sweden (26%) Switz. (31%) Denmark (37%) Australia (42%) Denmark (34%) 10 Neth. (26%) Neth. (31%) Ireland (37%) U.S. (42%) Ireland (34%) 11 Denmark (26%) Iceland (30%) Switz. (36%) Sweden (41%) Switz. (34%) 12 Japan (26%) U.K. (30%) Iceland (36%) France (41%) U.K. (33%) 13 Germany (24%) Belgium (29%) Belgium (35%) Neth. (40%) Belgium (32%) 14 Iceland (24%) Sweden (28%) U.K. (33%) Spain (39%) Neth. (32%) 15 Belgium (22%) Ireland (27%) Sweden (33%) Luxembourg (39%) Sweden (32%) 45-64: New Jersey (43%) NJ (47%) NJ (48%) NJ (45%) Source: OECD. Education at a Glance ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. 14

15 Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary experience. The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear: More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment. 15

16 Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment HS Dropout $9,895 18% HS Graduate 14% $27,192 Some College 12% $32,175 Bachelor s & Above 6% $70,317 Mean Income Unemployment Rate New Jersey Statistics: Total Unemployment: 11%, Mean Income: $39,367 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011). Current Population Survey. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. 16

17 Personal Benefits: Increased Lifetime Earnings Estimated Average Lifetime Earnings by Education Level $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $- Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/fullreport.pdf Analysis based on author s analysis of March 2008 CPS data. 17

18 THE EQUITY IMPERATIVE: CREATING EQUAL ACCESS AND PREPARATION FOR ALL Far too many students, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for real world challenges

19 Achievement Gaps Start Early: New Jersey s 4 th and 8 th Grade Achievement Gaps % At or Above Proficient on NAEP Subgroup 4 th Grade Math (2011) 4 th Grade Reading (2011) 4 th Grade Science (2009) 8 th Grade Math (2011) 8 th Grade Reading (2011) 8 th Grade Science (2011) All Students 51% 44% 39% 47% 45% 34% White 64% 53% 52% 59% 56% 46% Black 24% 25% 12% 21% 21% 9% Hispanic 28% 25% 15% 24% 22% 12% Asian 75% 64% 63% 73% 66% 56% American Indian n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from 19

20 Achievement Gaps Are About More than Race: Achievement Gaps Among Other Disadvantaged Populations % At or Above Proficient on NAEP Subgroup 4 th Grade Math (2011) 4th Grade Reading (2011) 4 th Grade Science (2009) 8 th Grade Math (2011) 8 th Grade Reading (2011) 8 th Grade Science (2011) All Students 51% 44% 39% 47% 45% 34% Low Income 27% 23% n/a 24% 20% 12% English Language Learners Students with Disabilities 8% n/a n/a 12% n/a n/a 25% 21% 20% 18% 15% 16% Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from 20

21 Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Minority Students Are More at Risk of Dropping Out Teens Aged Who Are Not in School and Not High School Graduates by Race, % 4% 7% 6% 9% 8% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 4% 2% 0% U.S. NJ All White Black Hispanic Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation. Kids Count Data Center. 2010, Teens ages 16 to 19 who are not in school and are not high school graduates by race (Percent). 21

22 Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Graduation Rates Percent of On-Time High School Graduates, % 80% 88% 87% 78% 73% 74% 74% 63% 53% 59% 33% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% U.S. NJ All White Black Hispanic Asian American Indian Source: Education Week (2012). Graduation in the United States

23 Achievement Gaps Continue Into Postsecondary: College Completion Percent of Students Earning a Postsecondary Degree 56% 61% 59% 66% 41% 48% 47% 49% 66% 67% 39% 46% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% All White Black Hispanic Asian American Indian Source: NCES. IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems. 23

24 THE EXPECTATIONS IMPERATIVE: WE RE SETTING THE BAR TOO LOW We ve held students to low and inconsistent expectations for too long. As a result, too few graduates are successful and achieving college and career readiness.

25 Too Many Students Remain Off Track to Success: Of Every th Graders in New Jersey th Graders 82 Graduate High School in 4 Years 58 Enroll in College In the Fall 41 Still Enrolled Sophomore Year of College 22 Earn a College Degree Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College. 25

26 Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Participating in AP and Exceeding College and Career Readiness Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2011) 27% 20% New Jersey 30% 18% U.S. 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 12th Graders who scored a 3+ on an AP Exam in High School 12th Graders who took an AP Exam in High School Source: College Board (2012). AP Report to the Nation. 26

27 Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark Percentage of ACT-tested graduates who met or exceeded the College Readiness Benchmark score, % 39% 31% 43% 46% 67% 52% 67% 67% 81% 100% 50% 0% U.S. NJ All 4 tests Science Math Reading English Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses. Source: ACT (2012). College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State. 27

28 Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness Percentage of U.S. first-year students in two-year and four-year institutions requiring remediation 28% 30% 22% 25% 11% 14% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Reading Writing Math Reading, Writing or Math Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall

29 Freshmen at Two-Year Colleges are More Likely to Require Remediation Percentage of U.S. first-year students requiring remediation, by institution type 42% 50% 35% 40% 16% 23% 9% 20% 6% 20% 30% 20% 10% 0% Math Writing Reading Reading, Writing or Math Public 2-Year Colleges Public 4-Year Colleges Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at Degree- Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall

30 Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Retention Rates 54% 58% 77% 82% 56% 63% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Persistence (2- Year) Persistence (4- Year) Completion (4- Year) Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Retention Rates - First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year ; Graduation Rates

31 Desire for High Expectations: The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work 72% 62% 48% 34% Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area Math 41% 32% Science 38% 29% English Students Who Did Not Go To College College Students Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005). Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Washington, DC: Achieve. 31

32 THE SUPPORT: STAKEHOLDERS RECOGNIZE THE NEED FOR ACTION Research and polling demonstrates that students, teachers, parents, and the general public are dissatisfied with the status quo and want to do something about it.

33 The Public on College and Career Readiness 87% 67% To really get ahead in life, a person needs more than just a high school education. 89% 69% To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some education beyond high school, whether that means university, community college, technical or vocational school. Strongly Agree Agree Source: Achieve (2010). Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career- Ready Agenda. 33

34 Parents on College and Career Readiness Very Important for child to get education that would lead to college Percentage of Parents Who Say School does a very good job preparing child for college School does a very good job preparing child for good job 78% 74% 66% 51% 86% 100% 80% 60% 13% 18% 25% 38% 40% 20% 0% Low-Performing Schools Moderate-Performing Schools High-Performing Schools Source: Civic Enterprises (2008). One Dream, Two Realities: Perspectives of Parents on America's High Schools. 34

35 Students Overwhelmingly Want to Succeed and Attend College The vast majority of students intend to go on to college and do not expect to drop out of high school:! 93 percent of middle school students report there is no chance they will drop out in high school.! 94 percent of high school students say that they are planning to continue their education after high school either at a two- or four-year institution.! 95 percent of teenagers report that graduating from high school is critical to their future success. Source: Middle Schools Poll, Prepared for the National Association of Secondary School Principals and Phi Delta Kappa, 2007; Civic Enterprises, The Silent Epidemic: Perspectives of High School Dropouts, 2006; Boys & Girls Clubs of America/Taco Bell Foundation for Teens, Teen Graduation Crisis Survey,

36 Graduates Consistently Regret Not Having Worked Harder Or Having Been More Challenged in High School Percent of 2010 Graduates Who Wish They Had Worked Harder In High School, by Postsecondary Enrollment 56% 53% 47% 35% All Graduates Four-Year College Two-Year College No College/Other Source: College Board (2011). One Year Out: Findings From A National Survey Among Members Of The High School Graduating Class Of

37 Employers See the Value of Education and the Knowledge and Skills Gaps in Their Recent Hires! More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy (79%) and workforce productivity (76%).! Executives also recognize increasing postsecondary experiences could affect both the success of their company (75%) and their company s ability to hire and retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%). Overall Preparation of New Workforce Entrants 16% 32% 24% 51% Deficient 51% 55% 22% 34% 17% Adequate 4-year College 2-Year College High School Excellent Source: Corporate Voices for Working Families & Civic Enterprises (2011). Across the Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs and College Presidents on America s Higher Education and Skills Gap. & The Conference Board, Corporate Voices for Working Families, ASTD, SHRM (2008). The Ill-Prepared U.S. Workforce: Exploring the Challenges of Employer-Provided 37

38 Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda Percent of Educators Who Agree That 60% High school is not preparing students for the workforce com 74% It is important for all students to have one year or more of postsecondary education to be prepared for a career clear 67% 69% Clearer standards would make a strong or very strong impact on student achievement Common standards would have a strong or very strong impact on student achievement i h Sources: MetLife (2010). The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher. & Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Scholastic (2010). Primary Sources: America's Teachers on America's School. 38

39 Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda Percentage of Teachers Who Favor/Oppose Implementing the Common Core and Common Assessments 72% 33% Strongly 20% 10% Strongly 8% 64% 25% Strongly 28% 15% Strongly 7% Common Assessments 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Common Core State Standards Don't Know/Not Sure Support Implementation Oppose Implementation Source: Achieve (2012) Growing Awareness, Growing Support: Teacher and Voter Understanding of the Common Core State Standards & Assessments. 39

40 THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

41 The College- and Career-Ready Agenda Align high school standards with the demands of college and careers. Require students to take a college- and career-ready curriculum to earn a high school diploma. Build college- and career-ready measures into statewide high school assessment systems. Develop reporting and accountability systems that promote college and career readiness. 41

42 New Jersey s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date! In 2007, New Jersey adopted academic standards in math and English aligned with college- and career-ready expectations.! New Jersey adopted the Common Core State Standards in June 2010.! New Jersey is a Governing State in the Partnership for Assessment of College and Career Readiness (PARCC), a consortium of states working to develop a common assessment system using Race to the Top Common Assessment funds.! New Jersey is a Lead State Partner in the development of the Next Generation Science Standards. 42

43 How New Jersey Can Continue to Build on its Momentum! Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular and policy changes.! Adopt college- and career-ready graduation requirements, aligned to the Common Core State Standards, to ensure all students are prepared, and eligible, for entry into college and skilled careers.! Remain committed to the goals of the PARCC Consortium and to developing and administering a next-generation, computer-based assessment system that is anchored in college and career readiness and will measure the full range of the Common Core State Standards! Continue to make progress on the state s data collection efforts, particularly around the matching of student-level data across K-12 and postsecondary data systems.! Re-examine the state s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can reward measures of college and career readiness.

44 HOW WELL IS NEW JERSEY PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012