By Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn

Transcription

1 Friday, April 29, 2016 By Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn TODAY S THOUGHT Motivation is what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going IMPORTANT SURVEY: Let Larry or I know if you would miss The Closing Bell if we quit writing it!! It is time consuming to put together. Below are three options to consider: 1) Stop the Newsletter 2) Leave it as is, because you read it. 3) Make it a 1 page newsletter A decision will be made on May 6 th please give us your input about the newsletter CATTLE and HOGS 14- Day RSI 10-Day 50-Day Futures Net Change Closing Price 30-Year 30-Year Jun 16 LC s Aug 16 LC s May 16 FC s Aug 16 FC s Jun 16 LH s The cattle complex opened lower today, made some new contract lows and closed mostly positive today but well off the session highs The June live cattle has declined $17.45 from the March high to the April low; May feeders have dropped $27.30 and the August feeders down $26.00 Technically the cattle complex is oversold and due for a correction and fundamentally there has been plenty of negativeness already built in. Hope for a nice May rally! The April feeder contract expired Thursday at $ down $68.77 from the June 1, 2015 contract high. Today the April live cattle contract expired at $ down $36.40 from the December 2, 2014 contract high. Now that the June live cattle contract is the front month contact it is starting with a discount of $8.17 from the expired April contract was and a discount to this week s cash cattle trade of $9.00 In 2015 the first week of May the June cattle had a discount of about $2 to the cash; the second and third weeks of May the June contract had a discount to cash of $9-$10. 8 of the past 9 sessions the Choice Boxed Beef Price has declined a total of $13.43 and the Select Price a total of $13.71 The past 16 sessions has seen 14 sessions of lower prices for the CME feeder cattle index for a total loss of $14.65 Sterling Beef Profit Tracker shows feedlot margins per head for the week ending Apr. 23 rd at ($122.98); week ago ($47.90); month ago ($186.22) and year ago ($206.94) Link to Data Today s average beef plant margin according to HedgersEdge is estimated at $31.00 per head profit, the past session it was $43.50 per head profit. 4/29/2016 Page 1 of 9

2 NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY - WEEK ENDING 04/29/2016 RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total This Week 165,700 36,500 59, ,600 Last Week 164,700 35, ,100 Last Year 180,200 66,400 56, ,700 Link to Full Feeder Summary Data This Week the USDA s Steer Cash Negotiated Cattle mandatory reporting service reported KS sold 18,832 head at $ $ TX/OK/NM sold 9,202 head at $ $ NE sold 46,196 head at $ $ and $ $ IA/MN sold 13,224 head at $ $ and $ $ Last Week the USDA s Steer Cash Negotiated Cattle mandatory reporting service reported KS sold 15,565 head at $ $ (Wtd. Avg $127.01) TX/OK/NM sold 5,650 head at $ $ (Wtd. Avg $126.87) NE sold 42,084 head at $ $ (Wtd. Avg $126.26) and $ $ IA/MN sold 19,161 head at $ $ (Wtd. Avg $125.94) and $ $ ************* ************* ************* ************* ************* Trading was mixed today for the lean hog futures with the close being positive for only the first four contracts The June and July lean hogs made new highs for the month of April Sterling Pork Profit Tracker shows farrow to finish margins per head for the week ending Apr. 22 nd at $10.06; week ago $4.09; month ago $2.05 and year ago ($8.68) Link to Data Tom Leffler June Live Cattle traded mixed today and very near the contract low and closed slightly positive. Support is at $ April & $ area. Resistance is at $ area $ area $ area $ the 100-DMA $ area $ the 200-DMA $ March and 2016 May Feeder Cattle made a new contract low for the second straight session and today closed slightly negative. Support is at $ April and $ area. Resistance is at $ area $ area $ area $ area $ the 100-DMA $ area $ March F.I. Cattle Kill Daily/wk. totals Box Beef Prices Net Change Box Beef Load Count Today 112K / 559K Choice $ $1.05 Choice Cuts 52 Week Ago 112K / 556K Select $ $0.82 Select Cuts 25 Year Ago 107K / 557K Choice/Select Spread $9.18 Trimmings 21 CME Cash Feeder Index $ $0.51 Coarse Grinds 28 F.I. Hog Kill Daily/ wk. totals Wholesale Pork Price Net Change Today 387K / 2.079M Cutout 185# $ $0.57 Week Ago 421K / 2.157M Primal Loin $ $0.32 Year Ago 413K / 2.117M Primal Ham $ $1.58 CME Hog Index $ $0.66 Primal Belly $ $4.40 4/29/2016 Page 2 of 9

3 June Lean Hogs today traded and closed positive for the third straight session and today had its highest trade since March 31 st. Support is at $80.68 the 50-DMA $79.36 the 100-DMA $76.80 April $76.20 Jan. $75.00 area. Resistance is at $81.75 the April $82.50 area $83.97 March & CORN Day 50-Day Futures Net Closing 30-Year 30-Year Day Change Price RSI Jul 16 C 0' 4 391' 6s 395' 2 388' '5 3.82'1 5.82'6 3.59'4 8.24'0 1.54'0 Dec 16 C 0' 6 395' 2s 397' 2 390' '5 3.83'1 5.60'0 3.64'0 8.49'0 1.58'0 The higher trading into the mid-session evaporated the rest of the session for the corn price. That is until, the close when small lot buy saved the day. It was a session of buying old crop and selling new crop corn contracts. Corn spread traders believe in an improvement in corn export demand and decent conditions of planting in the Midwest. Planting will be interrupted this weekend in the Midwest. Rain passed through the area. Minor delay but dry weather returns in the 6 to 10 day forecast. Trend traders are still net short almost 50,000 contracts of corn according to the last COT report. Some of these traders have old short positions that still have profit. We should be close to 50% planted for corn on next Monday s crop report. The price pattern for the July corn contract shows a short term bullish pattern. It was been a rally month for the corn price. No deliveries posted against the May corn futures as deliveries started today. Larry Glenn Jul Corn today traded mixed, equaled the high of the week and closed slightly positive. Support is at the $3.88 the 200-DMA $3.80 area $3.74 the 100-DMA $3.72 the 50-DMA $3.51¼ April and. Resistance is at $4.00 area $4.07 ¼ the April $4.07 ½ October 27 th $4.21 the October SOYBEAN COMPLEX Net Change 14- Day RSI 10-Day 50-Day Futures Closing 30-Year 30-Year Price Jul 16 S 2' ' 6s 1038' ' '3 9.26' '4 8.59' '4 4.01'4 Nov 16 S -0' ' 6s 1016' ' '1 9.27' '4 8.50' '0 4.05'2 Jul 16 SM s Jul 16 BO s Overall today was a quiet session for the soybean complex as they trade mixed and continue to hold very close to their April highs 4/29/2016 Page 3 of 9

4 There are reports that the Argentina soybean yields are coming in larger than last year, it will be interesting to see if the Argentina soybean crop is as disappointing as some are predicting due to the wet weather problems The non-commercial s in the commitment of traders report increased net longs by over 48,000 contracts in the soybean futures. Tom Leffler Jul Soybeans had two-sided trading today and closed positive with its highest close since January 9 th. Support is at $10.15 area $10.00 area $9.75 the 61.8% Retracement from the Nov. to the April $9.53 the 50% Retracement $9.31 the 38.2% Retracement $9.24 the 50- DMA. Resistance is at $10.30 area $10.46 ¼ the April $10.51 the Dec. 29 th Jul Soy Meal had two-sided trading today and closed positive with its highest close since July 16 th. Support is at $ area $ area $ the 200-DMA $ area $ the 50- DMA. Resistance is at $ area $ April $ the July May Soy Oil today made a new low for the week and had its lowest trade since March 24 th and closed negative with its lowest close since March 16 th. Support is at April the 100-DMA March. Resistance is at area area April the Oct. 31, 2014 WHEAT 14- Day RSI 10-Day 50-Day Futures Net Closing 30-Year 30-Year Change Price Jul 16 KW 4' 0 478' 4s 479' 4 469' '2 4.78'5 7.49'0 4.52' '0 2.30'0 Sep 16 KW 4' 0 494' 2s 495' 4 485' '7 4.92'4 6.79'2 4.67' '0 2.33'6 Jul 16 W 3' 0 488' 4s 490' 6 480' '6 4.74'2 7.32'0 4.49' '6 2.30'0 Sep 16 W 3' 0 498' 2s 501' 0 491' '1 4.84'0 6.43'0 4.60' '0 2.30'4 The wheat price rallied to start the session but the price drifted back to unchanged. The volume of trading was light to end the week. There was a round of buying seen in the wheat market at the close. Sideways trading was the theme for this week in the wheat market. Fresh market news lacking for wheat. A rain event is covering sections of the Plains States. This is a slow moving system and stays around through the weekend. In a large area, this moisture should be enough to finish this year s wheat production. The Kansas Wheat Tour starts next week. Crop scouts will walk in some muddy fields to count production. I would expect to see a higher yield number compared tom recent years. These scouts will see rust problems start to develop. Spray rigs both on the ground and in the air are active here in the northwest section of Kansas. Deliveries totaled 1,680 contracts against the May Chicago wheat future and 1,000 contracts against the May Kansas City wheat futures. This was higher than expected but no instant bearish effect on the wheat price. Larry Glenn 4/29/2016 Page 4 of 9

5 Jul KC Wheat traded mixed today and closed positive. Support is at the $4.70 area $4.60 area $4.52 ¾ April &. Resistance is at $4.79 the 50-DMA $4.83 the 100-DMA $5.09 ¼ the April $5.16 ¼ Dec. Jul Chicago Wheat closed positive today after having two-sided trading. Support is $4.80 the 100-DMA $4.74 the 50-DMA $4.60 area $4.53 April Double $4.49 ½ March &. Resistance is at $4.90 area $4.98 the 200-DMA $5.18 ½ the April $5.34 ¼ the Nov. OTHER MARKETS: Future Net Change Closing Price Net Change Closing Price Dow Jones Jul 16 Cotton s Jun 16 S&P s Jul 16 Oats -1' 0 205' 6s 207' 2 202' 2 Jun Dollar Index s Jun 16 Ethanol s Jun 16 T-Bond 0' ' 10s 163' ' 26 Jun 16 Crude s Jun 16 Gold s Jun 16 Heat s TODAY'S CLOSING PRICES VERSUS WEEK AGO and VERSUS A YEAR AGO Close WEEK AGO YEAR AGO 29-Apr Apr-16 NET CHANGE 29-Apr-15 NET CHANGE Jun Live Cattle (35.98) May Feeder Cattle (2.03) (72.63) Jun Lean Hogs Jul Corn Sep Corn Dec Corn Jul Soybeans Nov Soybeans Jan Soybeans Jul Soy Meal Jul Soy Oil (1.16) Jul KC Wheat (0.3100) Sep KC Wheat (0.2675) Jul CH Wheat Jul Cotton (3.32) Jun Crude Oil (12.66) Jun Heating Oil (0.5656) Jun Dollar Index (2.026) (2.268) DOW (231) (180) 4/29/2016 Page 5 of 9

6 Charts Reflect Combined Electronic & Day Sessions Dark Red Line is Trend Line // Green Line is 50-Day // Red Line is 100-Day Avg // Blue Line is Retracement 2016 JUNE LIVE CATTLE 2016 MAY FEEDER CATTLE 2016 JULY CORN 2016 JULY SOYBEANS 2016 MAY KC WHEAT 2016 MAY CHICAGO WHEAT 4/29/2016 Page 6 of 9

7 NEW CROP CHARTS for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat & Cotton Charts Reflect Combined Electronic & Day Sessions Dark Red Line is Trend Line // Green Line is 50-Day // Red Line is 100-Day Avg // Blue Line is Retracement 2016 DECEMBER CORN 2016 NOVEMBER SOYBEANS 2016 JULY KC WHEAT 2016 DECEMBER COTTON 4/29/2016 Page 7 of 9

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