Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance. Technical Analysis. By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University
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1 Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance Technical Analysis By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University Funding and Support Provided by:
2 Outline Bar Charts Moving Averages
3 Bar Chart Information High Open Close Low Daily Weekly Monthly
4 Chart formations Trends Planes Other top and bottom formations Key Reversals Flags, Triangles and Pennants Gaps
5 Up Trend Connect two or more daily price lows Preferably 10 days apart When market closes below an uptrend line, a sell signal is generated Computer trading vs fundamental Computers may drive prices lower for a few days If fundamentals don t support this, then prices will rally
6 Up Trend Sell Signal
7 Down Trend Connect two or more daily price highs Preferably 10 days apart When market closes above a downtrend line, a buy signal is generated Computer trading vs fundamental Computers may drive prices higher for a few days If fundamentals don t support this, then prices will decline
8 Down Trend False Buy Signal
9 Trend line market signals Speculators Buy and sell based on signals Hedgers Short Place on sell signal May choose to offset on buy signal Hedgers Long Place on buy signal May choose to offset on sell signal
10 Trend Line reliability A close above a major down trend or below a major up trend will lead to a significant price move about 75% of the time
11 Resistant Planes Life-of-contract highs can be very difficult for market to penetrate Strong Fundamental conditions needed to move market above resistance Sell signal if market fails to take out resistance Buy signal if market closes above resistance (particularly 2 closes above)
12 Resistant Planes There are also intermediate resistance planes These are not as hard to penetrate as lifeof-contract highs are
13 Resistance plane Sell Signal
14 Resistance plane Sell Signal Buy Signal
15 Support Planes The mirror image of Resistance Planes Life-of-contract lows Buy signal if market fails to penetrate Sell signal if low is taken out
16 Support Planes Sell Signal
17 Hedgers and Technical Analysis If understand trends and support and resistance planes: Time placement of hedge Set realistic market targets Perhaps minimize margin calls
18 Moving Averages May be a compliment to bar chart Single Moving Average 40-day Help signal turning points in market May be an alternative to bar chart Two moving averages employed Example 3-day and 10-day Example 9-day and 18-day Sell signal when shorter cuts longer from top Buy signal when shorter cuts longer from bottom
19 Buy B and Sell S Signals using the 4-day & 9-day Moving Average S S S B B S B B S B B
20 Moving Averages Advantages Provide clear market signals No guessing as to chart formation Good if there are trends in the data Disadvantage May generate multiple trades Don t perform well in choppy (sideways) markets
21 Moving Average Short Hedgers Place on Sell signals Lift (offset) on Buy signals Long Hedgers Place on Buy signals Lift (offset) on Sell signals Speculators Buy and Sell and Offset on all signals
22 Technical Analysis Summary Technical Analysis does work It requires Work to make it work Need to study past technical analysis for several years worth of data on a particularly commodity before trading For hedgers Trends and Support/Resistance Planes Moving Averages
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