Labour Market Bulletin

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1 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick July 2015 This Labour Market Bulletin provides an analysis of Labour Force Survey results for the province of New Brunswick, including the regions of Campbellton Miramichi, Edmundston Woodstock, Fredericton Oromocto, Moncton Richibucto and Saint John St. Stephen. OVERVIEW Employment declined slightly in New Brunswick for the third consecutive month, falling by 700 or 0.2% between June and July 2015 as gains in full-time work continue to be offset by losses in part-time jobs. Compared to the same period last year, employment was down by 3,700 in July. Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data Number % Number % Population 15 + ('000) Labour Force ('000) Employment ('000) Full-Time ('000) Part-Time ('000) Unemployment ('000) Unemployment Rate (%) Participation Rate (%) Employment Rate (%) Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table New Brunswick Monthly Labour Force Statistics Monthly Variation While employment fell over the past year, the labour force size has remained fairly consistent. As such, the unemployment rate climbed by 0.6 percentage points on a year-over-year basis in July 2015, reaching its highest level in nearly two years. However, at 11.0%, New Brunswick s unemployment was the second best in Atlantic Canada, trailing only Nova Scotia.

2 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick July 2015 Page 2 July s youth unemployment rate of 19.3% indicates that overall, people age have been particularly challenged in their efforts to find work this summer. Compared to last year, the youth unemployment rate has risen by 2.3 percentage points. The numbers are more alarming for young men, as this demographic has consistently held an unemployment rate above 20% for the past twelve months. In fact, employment has been on a downward trend for New Brunswick s youth since the 2008 economic recession and there have been few signs of it rebounding. Seasonally Adjusted Data Monthly Variation % % % (% points) (% points) Total years and over Men - 25 years and over Women - 25 years and over to 24 years Men - 15 to 24 years Women - 15 to 24 years Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table New Brunswick Monthly Unemployment Rates, by Gender and Age EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY Employment in the Goods-producing sector continued its downward trend in July. Since last year, the Goods-producing sector has experienced a drop of 2,900 jobs, or -3.9%. The main drags on this sector over the past year have been a lack of job creation in Construction (-4,000), as well as Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas (-1,700). The latter industry may see some near-term improvements, however, thanks to recent investments and improved market conditions. Specifically, forestry should be supported by a strengthening US housing market, where increased housing starts are expected to translate to higher demand

3 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick July 2015 Page 3 for New Brunswick-made lumber. Additionally, at least two of the provinces mines have ramped up production since last year. In contrast to the performance of the two aforementioned industries, Manufacturing has been a boom to the Goods-producing sector over the past year. Compared to July 2014, Manufacturing employment was up 2,400 or 8.8% as a strengthening US economy and a declining Canadian dollar have buoyed the industry. Indeed, an increased appetite for New Brunswick-made products has led to significant investments within the province. For example, J.D. Irving Ltd. is undergoing nearly half a billion dollars in renovation projects at its sawmills across the New Brunswick. Employment in the Service-producing sector, which has trended fairly flat over the past year, also failed to gain any ground in July, decreasing by 800. However, there are some employment bright spots within the sector. For instance, Transportation and warehousing (+3,200) and Educational services (+3,000) both posted notable job gains on a year-over-year basis. Though employment in the Educational services industry has trended upward for the past five years, optimism should be tempered as this industry may see a slowdown going forward due to declining enrollments and the fiscal restraints which were announced in New Brunswick s 2015 budget. Seasonally Adjusted Data ('000) Total employed, all industries Goods-producing sector Agriculture Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, Utilities Construction Manufacturing Services-producing sector Trade Transportation and warehousing Finance, insurance, real estate Professional, scientific Business, building Educational services Health care and social assistance Information, culture and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services Public administration Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table New Brunswick Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Industry Monthly Variation Number % Number % REGIONAL ANALYSIS Four of New Brunswick s five economic regions experienced employment declines on a year-over-year basis. Moncton-Richibucto recorded the largest drop in employment (-3,100), with a sizable contraction in the Construction industry. Since last year, the regional unemployment rate has risen from 7.0% to 9.3% as of July Nearly a third of the employment losses were located within the City of Moncton, where economic growth has slowed while awaiting further investment announcements. At the beginning of July the city council voted in favor of borrowing up to $95.4 million to develop a sports centre, which would provide a boost to the region s

4 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick July 2015 Page 4 Construction industry if finalized. Nevertheless, a final decision is not expected on the sports centre until later this year. In Saint John-St. Stephen, employment was also down 2,800 on a year-over-year basis. However, the area had the lowest regional unemployment rate in the province during July 2015 at 9.0%. PotashCorp s Picadilly mine, located near Sussex, opened in late 2014 and continues to ramp up production levels; but it was not enough to offset the overall losses in the goods-producing sector. The long-term trend for Edmundston-Woodstock shows that employment has been relatively stable over the past decade. On a year-over-year basis; however, this region experienced an employment decline of 1,600 or 4.1%. The regional unemployment rate has crept up by nearly a full percentage point since last year, but remains well below the provincial average. Employment declines were less pronounced in Campbellton-Miramichi (-100), a region that has benefited from the re-opening of Trevali s Caribou Mine. Trevali recently announced that it staffed approximately 210 positions since opening, with roughly 17% of the workforce being made up of First Nations members. Still, job creation remains a challenge in this region as evidenced by the 14.0% unemployment rate. Although the regional unemployment rate remains the highest in the province, it improved significantly compared to last year due to a shrinking labour market and a lower level of total unemployment. Fredericton-Oromocto was a standout area for New Brunswick, posting a year-over-year employment increase of 3,300 or 5.3%. The region, which is typically sustained by a high volume of public service jobs, was supported by a strong transportation and warehousing industry, as well as advancements in business, building and other support services. July 2015 July 2014 Yearly July 2015 July 2014 Yearly ('000) ('000) Variation (%) (%) Variation (%) (% points) New Brunswick Economic Regions 3-Month Moving Averages Seasonally Unadjusted Data Campbellton-Miramichi Moncton-Richibucto Saint John-St. Stephen Fredericton-Oromocto Edmundston-Woodstock Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table New Brunswick Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Economic Region Employment Unemployment Rate

5 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick July 2015 Page 5 Note: In preparing this document, the authors have taken care to provide clients with labour market information that is timely and accurate at the time of publication. Since labour market conditions are dynamic, some of the information presented here may have changed since this document was published. Users are encouraged to also refer to other sources for additional information on the local economy and labour market. Information contained in this document does not necessarily reflect official policies of Employment and Social Development Canada. Prepared by: Labour Market Analysis Directorate, Service Canada, Atlantic Region For further information, please contact the LMI team at: For information on the Labour Force Survey, please visit the Statistics Canada Web site at: Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as represented by Employment and Social Development Canada, 2015, all rights reserved

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