Towards a SAARC Investment Area
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1 Towards a SAARC Investment Area Policy Options & Challenges Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka 7 th South Asia Economic Summit, Delhi, India 5-7 November /26/2014
2 Structure of Presentation Introduction Analytical Framework Trends and Patterns of FDI in SAARC FDI Policy Context in South Asia Comparative Assessment of Investment Climates ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement as a regional benchmark: Salient Features Conclusion & Way Forward 11/26/2014 2
3 Introduction In moving towards deeper economic integration, the SAARC GEP Report (1999), stressed on the concurrent need for deeper finance and investment policy integration to complement trade expansion GEP Report Recommended to have a investment agreement in place before the implementation of the FTA SAFTA has come into effect, whilst almost a decade on, despite SATIS, a comprehensive agreement covering investment still remains largely in a dormant state Given the current state of affair - it is timely that a regional investment framework be instituted to complement the regions trade liberalization programme Need for broad based investment climate reforms at the country level to complement regional efforts 11/26/2014 3
4 What are International Investment Agreements (IIAs)? With the surge in global FDI flows, the international investment landscape has been increasingly dotted with IIAs Amongst the many provisions, IIAs seek to attract FDI by addressing issues such as expropriation, fair and equal treatment and liberalization foreign investors entry and ownership requirements They obligate a host country to abide by international rules on investment and dispute settlement mechanisms are backed by third-party arbitration Countries can undertake unilateral liberalization, however the lock-in effect of making investment and services liberalization commitments a part of an IIAs adds credibility to these commitments Whilst Bilateral Investment Agreements (BITs) are by far the most popular, recent decades have witnessed an uptick in regional and inter-regional IIAs (EIIAs) established under the broader framework of Economic Integration Agreements (e.g. NAFTA, EU, ASEAN, etc.) 11/26/2014 4
5 Rationale for a Regional Investment Agreement The market enlargement effect of EIAs (Economic Integration Agreements) allows for gains from specialization (division of labour), differences in resource endowments, and from economies of scale in manufacturing and technology Removal of trade barriers is a major step in this direction; however the removal of barriers to other types of international transactions such as investment expands the extent and range of such benefits. EIAs dealing with trade would also see an increase in investment flows into and within the EIA area, driven by two factors First, the enlargement effect resultant from the removal of trade barriers allows firms to benefit from greater scale, which in consequence helps attract market-seeking production activities, from both within and outside the EIA area Second, to facilitate change in the location of production within EIA member countries 11/26/2014 5
6 Rationale for a Regional Investment Agreement (contd.) Trade liberalization reduces the need for maintaining horizontal operations for MNEs and allows them to focus on assigning MNE affiliates to specialize in specific product lines to the region market Relocation of production is essentially driven by comparative advantage, however it is closely linked to adoption of investment rules that relax market entry restrictions and provide for legal protection. After the implementation of the EU single Market Plan, EU shares of global FDI rose from 30% to 50%. Similarly the creation of NAFTA saw Mexico s FDI increase from US$12 bn to US$54 bn per year (Kumar 2008) To ensure the combined efficiency effects of scale and comparative advantage, lowering tariffs alone is not sufficient. Very little could be gained if countries within an EIA area maintain substantial investment barriers between themselves 11/26/2014 6
7 IIAs and their place in the context of FDI location Determinants Existence of IIAs is by far, not the only determinant of FDI Other factors, such as the economic attractiveness of a host country, its market size, its labour force or its endowment with natural resources are much more important To make key economic determinants more attractive a number of additional conditions are needed 11/26/2014 7
8 Trends and Patterns of Inward FDI Despite the recent performance, FDI inflows to SAARC vis-à-vis other regional groupings is rather limited Inward FDI flows, Percentage of World Total, ASEAN CARICOM 40 Euro area FTAA MERCOSUR NAFTA SAARC UNCTAD (2014) Statistics Database 11/26/2014 8
9 Trends and Patterns of Outward FDI Share of Global Outward FDI, SAARC and Selected Regional Groupings Year ASEAN CARICOM Euro area FTAA SAARC UNCTAD (2014) Statistics Database 11/26/2014 9
10 Trends and Patterns of FDI Composition of Inward FDI in SAARC, 2013 Composition of Outward FDI, % 4% 3% 1% India Bangladesh Pakistan Sri Lanka Other 2% 12% 3% India Bangladesh Pakistan Sri Lanka 87% 83% UNCTAD (2014) Statistics Database 11/26/
11 Characteristics of Intra-regional FDI Flows (examples from the India- Sri Lanka FTA) Sri Lankan MNEs - Ceylon Biscuits, Lion Brewery, John Keels, Hayleys and Aitken Spence (Hotels) Largely Market-seeking Indian MNEs - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Tatas (Taj Hotel, VSNL, Tata Tea, Tata Communication), Bharat Airtel, Apollo Hospital, Aditya Birla Group (L&T), Ambujas, Rediffusion, Nicholan Piramal, Jet Airways, Ashok Leyland, and Hero Motors The MAS fabric park - Chintavaram. Handful of efficiency-seeking investment projects Brandix India Apparel City (BIAC) Vishakapathnam CEAT India - CEAT & Associated Motorways Pvt Ltd (AMW); second joint venture partnership with Kelani Tyres Pvt Ltd 11/26/
12 Is Indian Investment Shifting away from South Asia? Majority of Indian outward FDI is destined to developed and transitional economies Investment characteristics of Indian firms (especially in the IT/BPO Sectors) suggest they want to develop a portfolio of locational assets as a source of international competitiveness and visibility. Hence possibility of Indian FDI shifting away from South Asia Growing resistance to Indian Investment in some neighbouring countries: TATA (Urea Fertilizer) and Mittal Group (Steel Mill) Bangladesh Indian Amul Company (Milk Production) Sri Lanka GMR Group of India (Airport Modernization) - Maldives 11/26/
13 Agriculture and Forestry FDI Policy Context in South Asia Mining and Oil & Gas Manufacturing Electricity Waste management and water supply Transportation Tourism Media Telecom Financial Services Accounting Education Sector Openness: Foreign Equity Ownership Limits (%), 2012 South Asia Afghanistan 100% 100% 100% 80% 100% 92% 100% 0% 87% 100% 100% 100% Bangladesh 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% India 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 100% 63% 74% 42% 100% 100% Nepal 100% 100% 67% 60% 50% 67% 100% 100% 100% 100% 51% 100% Pakistan 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 92% 100% 37% 100% 83% 100% 100% Sri Lanka 70% 70% 100% 39% 100% 52% 100% 40% 100% 100% 100% 100% World Bank (2014) Investing Across Borders Database /26/
14 Regional Investment Cooperation in SAARC Attempts to foster Regional Investment Cooperation in SAARC could be traced back to the Thirteenth SAARC Summit in Dhaka (2005) SAARC Limited Multilateral Agreement on Avoidance of Double Taxation and Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters The SAARC agreement for the establishment of SAARC Arbitration Council Draft SAARC Agreement on Promotion and Protection of Investments SAARC Agreement on Trade in Services (SATIS) 11/26/
15 FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index: Selected SAARC & ASEAN Economies ASEAN Average SAARC Average Non-OECD Average OECD Average Index Complied using World Bank (2014) Investing Across Borders Data 11/26/
16 Investments Freedoms Index Investment Freedom Score Vietnam Laos Cambodia Thailand Singapore Philippines Malaysia Indonesia Sri Lanka Pakistan Nepal Maldives India Bhutan Bangladesh Heritage Foundation & Wall Street Journal (2014) Economic Freedoms Index Database 11/26/
17 Economic Attractiveness of South Asia FDI Potential Index (Ranking), 2012 Economy Market attractiveness Availability of low-cost labour and skills Enabling infrastructure Presence natural resources of Overall rank Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka UNCTAD (2012) World Investment Report Database 11/26/
18 Investment Climates across South Asia: Vietnam A Comparative Assessment (Contd.) Laos Myanmar Cambodia Thailand Singapore Philippines Malaysia Indonesia Brunei Sri Lanka Pakistan Nepal Maldives India Bhutan Bangladesh Afghanistan Political Stability and Absence of Violence World Bank, World Governance Indicators (2013) & AON Risk Map (2014) Footer Text 11/26/
19 Comparative Assessment of Investment Climates Across South Asia : Governance Country Voice and Accountability Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption SAARC Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka ASEAN-6 Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand World Bank (2014)World Governance Indicators Database 11/26/
20 Comparative Assessment of Investment Climates Across South Asia : Other Determinants Quality of Infrastructure (Score 0-7) Inflation, (annual % change) SAARC Country credit rating (Score 0-100) Hiring and firing practices (Score 0-7)) Redundancy costs (in weeks of salary) Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka ASEAN-6 Brunei n/a Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand World Economic Forum (2014) Global Competiveness Report 11/26/
21 ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA) as a regional benchmark: Salient Features of Broad definition of investment Unique definition of investor Compensation in the event of strife Freedom of transferring funds Entry, temporary stay and work authorization for investors, executives, managers and members of the board of directors of an ASEAN member 11/26/
22 Other Features of ACIA Built on four main pillars: Liberalization, Protection, Promotion and Facilitation Liberalization Liberalization of Five Sectors Reduces or removes restrictions to entry Reduce &/or remove restrictive investment measures & other impediments Protection Investor state dispute settlement Full protection and security, and treatment of compensation for losses resulting from strife Facilitation Streamline and simplify procedures Promote the dissemination of investment information, rules, regulations, policies and procedures Promotion Promote intra- ASEAN trade Promote industrial complementation and production networks among MNCs in ASEAN Undertake Joint investment missions 11/26/
23 Conclusion & Way Forward Contrary to what the topology of economic integration suggests. Incorporating, FDI at the very early stages of integration process plays a crucial complementary role in spurring the intra-regional expansion of trade South Asian countries, have instituted fairly liberal regulatory regimes. However, when it comes to the actual implementation of these policies, regulatory regimes seem to be highly restrictive Regional initiatives like SAFTA and SATIS are too shallow to act as incentives to attract investments and regional investment initiatives are in early stages to make any significant impact on regional investment flows A regional investment framework would be beneficial, by locking in policy commitments already made IIAs only form a sub-component of the overall host country investment environment. Getting the investment climate right, is far more important Individual SAARC countries need to unilaterally undertake broad-based investment climate reforms to take full advantage of a SAARC investment Area. Achieving political stability must be a top most priority In designing an effective investment framework for SAARC, the region should draw lessons from other more successful regional groupings such as the ASEAN 11/26/
24 Thank you Footer Text 11/26/
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