/2015 STATISTICAL REFLECTIONS

Transcription

1 Labour market trends, 1 st half of 25 /25 STATISTICAL REFLECTIONS 21 October 25 Content 1. Employment outlook Employed people Job vacancies Unemployed and inactive people, labour reserve Registered jobseekers Earnings, income from work Gross earnings, income from work Net earnings and family tax benefit Employment outlook 1.1 Employed people Labour market trends characteristic of the previous period continued in the 1 st half of 25 as well. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the number of employed people increased by 2.4 thousand to 4 million 159 thousand, while that of unemployed people fell by 32.7 thousand to 329 thousand. According to the data of the labour force survey, the number of employed people was more than 4.2 million in the 2 nd quarter of 25, which represented an increase of 285 thousand compared to the level before the crisis (2 nd quarter of 2). Partly due to seasonal effects, the number of employed people was 83.5 thousand higher in the 2 nd quarter of 25 than in the 1 st quarter. The employment rate calculated for the population aged years was 62.4% in the 1 st quarter and 63.8% in the 2 nd quarter. This latter means an improvement of 8.9 percentage points compared to the value of 54.9% in the 2 nd quarter of 2, which was one of the lowest values in the crisis period. 2. percentage points of this can be explained by the decrease in the denominator, i.e. the number of the year-old population in this period. Figure 1 Change in the number of employed and in employment rate of people aged Thousand Rate, % Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q Number of employed aged Employment rate of year-olds Table 1 Employment rate and unemployment rate* in EU member states, 2 nd quarter 25 Country yearolds yearolds Employment year-old men women together change a) % Unemployment rate % Austria Belgium Bulgaria Ciprus Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxemburg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom EU *Calculated for the population aged a) Q2 25 / Q2 24. Source: Eurostat. Employment rate and unemployment rate* in the EU member states, 1 st quarter of 25.

2 2 Labour market trends, 1 st half of 25 Statistical reflections 49/25 In recent years, the growth rate of employment in Hungary was one of the highest in the EU; therefore, our position has been continuously improving in the field of employment. In the 2 nd quarter of 25, our lagging behind in the employment rate calculated for the population aged years diminished to 1.7 percentage points, but, within this, the rate of the year-olds considered to be in the best working age was 2.6 percentage points higher than the EU average. Although in the age group the rate is significantly lower than the EU average (25.2% of people in the age group are employed as opposed to 32.5% in the EU), the reason for this is not the high youth unemployment as in the southern European member states but the high rate of participation in education. As a consequence of the continuous rise of retirement age, the presence of the age group in the labour market is increasing, although it is still below the EU average. Out of the increase of 2.4 thousand in the number of employed people compared to the 1 st half of the previous year, 49.2 thousand were women and 53.2 thousand were men. The number of people who indicate that they work at local units abroad increased by 12.3 thousand, that of those who work in public employment by 19.7 thousand and the number of people who work in the domestic primary labour market grew by 7.4 thousand over one year. Compared to the number of employed, the expansion of employment was the most considerable in Central Transdanubia and Northern Hungary, but, while in the former region, this growth was concentrated in the primary labour market, in the latter one it was connected with more jobs in public employment. In the 2 nd quarter of 25, Western Transdanubia was the first in the ranking of regions with its employment rate of 67.7% for the year-olds, while Northern Great Plain by.5 percentage point behind Northern Hungary was the last with its 58.6%. In this respect, the difference among counties was even higher: while in Győr-Moson-Sopron and Vas counties, out of hundred people of corresponding age, 69 worked, this number was 57 in Szabolcs- Szatmár-Bereg county. Number of the employed and its change compared to the corresponding period of earlier years Denomination Number of employed 1 st half of 2 1 st half of 24 1 st half of 25 Table 2 (thousand persons) Change in the number of employed 1 st half of 1 st half of 25 / 25 / 1 st half of 1 st half of 2 24 Total 3,73.8 4,56.5 4, Men 1,97.5 2, , Women 1, ,86.6 1, Central Hungary 1, ,32. 1, Central Transdanubia Western Transdanubia Southern Transdanubia Northern Hungary Northern Great Plain Southern Great Plain Employees 3, ,66.9 3, of which: declare to be public worker Members of business partnerships Self-employed Unpaid family workers 3, , , Working in premises in Hungary Working in premises abroad According to the data of institutional labour statistics, including the more than 11.4 thousand public workers, 1 million 93 thousand people worked in the 1 st half of 25 at corporations employing at least 5 persons, 2.7% more than in the same period of 24. (Excluding public workers, the increase was 2.8%.) Partly because of the base effect, the headcount increase was more dynamic in the 1 st quarter than in the 2 nd quarter. The headcount growth in manufacturing, the section of the national economy employing the largest number of people (64.8 thousand) was on the whole similar to the average, but within this, there were significant differences among the various sub-sections. The number of employees increased outstandingly in the manufacture of transport equipment (7.9%) and in the manufacture of rubber and plastics products and other non-metallic mineral products (6.9%), while among subsections having larger headcount, it decreased in the manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products as well as in the manufacture of wood and paper products and printing. Compared to a year earlier, among sections of the national economy employing a significant headcount, the number of employees increased by 3.2% in wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, 2.7% in construction, 6.5% in accommodation and food service activities, 1.4% in transportation and storage and 5.% in the economic organizations of administrative and support service activities employing at least 5 persons. The number of people working in non-public employment in budgetary institutions grew by.8% to thousand, and that of those in the observed non-profit organizations increased by 6.8% to 96.3 thousand. Including public workers, the headcount was by 4.% higher in non-profit organizations and by 1.% in budgetary institutions than in the 1 st half of 24. According to the data of institutional labour statistics, the average number of public workers was thousand in the 1 st half of 25, essentially the same as in the corresponding period of 24, but the change in their monthly number was more balanced than in the previous year. The fewest (151 thousand) people worked in public employment in March, but from May their number approached the planned 2 thousand. The main area of public employment is the public sector, where the monthly average number of people working in this form of employment was thousand. The remaining headcount is divided nearly equally between organizations of the business sector (typically state-owned enterprises) and the non-profit sector. Monthly change in the number of public workers* Thousand persons * Until 22, only data of the public sector are available. Source: Monthly labour statistics. Figure Full-timers in public sector Corporations Part-timers in public sector Non-profit organizations

3 Statistical reflections 49/25 Labour market trends, 1 st half of Job vacancies The proportion of job vacancies in corporations employing at least 5 persons, budgetary institutions and designated non-profit organizations was 1.5% both in the 1 st and in the 2 nd quarter of 25. Similarly to the previous years, the number of job vacancies increased in the 1 st quarter of 25 as well (to 27 thousand in the business sector) because of retirements scheduled for the end of the year, and in the 2 nd quarter it grew by 19% to 28 thousand compared to the same period of the previous year. FIgure 3 Change in the number of job vacancies in the business sector Thousand Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q Source: Institutional job vacancies statistics. In the last month of the first half year, 18 thousand job vacancies were announced at the National Employment Service, 45% of which were intended to be filled in unsupported form. Most of the announced job vacancies for unsupported form of employment were registered in Budapest (more than 2,), but their number was more than 1, in Győr-Moson- Sopron, Zala, Pest, Bács-Kiskun and Komárom-Esztergom counties as well. Employers were mostly looking for machinery assemblers, shop salespersons, lorry drivers, cooks and freight handlers Unemployed, inactive people, labour reserve The number of unemployed people meeting the definition of the labour force survey increased to thousand in the 1 st quarter of 25 due to seasonal reasons, and then it diminished to 3.4 thousand in the 2 nd Potential labour reserve, 2 nd quarter 25 quarter. This latter corresponded to an unemployment rate of 6.9% which is an improvement of 1.2 percentage points (49 thousand persons) compared to the same period of the previous year. In the 2 nd quarter of 25, the difference between the unemployment rates of men and women increased again because of the fact that some of the unemployed participated in public work programmes employing a higher proportion of men. The youth unemployment rate continued to decrease to 17.8% in the 2 nd quarter of 25. As a result of raising the retirement age and narrowing the opportunities of the early exit from the labour market, the unemployment rate of the year-olds approached that of the age group. Major unemployment indicators Period Unemployed (thousand persons) men women together Unemployment rate (%) men women together Table 3 Unemployment rate of people aged (%) 22 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Figure 4 Population aged ,539.5 thousand Employed 4,2.7 thousand Unemployed 3.4 thousand Inactive 3,28.4 thousand Employed without underemployed 4,127.4 thousand 73.3 Unemployed 11.6 thousand 3.4 thousand thousand thousand Inactive beyond labour reserve 2,874.1 thousand Underemployed Unemployed, Available, not available but not searching for a job

4 4 Labour market trends, 1 st half of 25 Statistical reflections 49/25 The problem of long-term unemployment still exists: in the 2 nd quarter of 25, 48.5% of unemployed people had been looking for a job for at least one year. In the 2 nd quarter of 25, 538 thousand people belonged to the category defined as labour reserve; 73.3 thousand of them were underemployed and thousand did not meet the criteria of job search, therefore they were considered economically inactive. In the labour force survey, thousand people regarded themselves as unemployed in the 2 nd quarter of 25. The number of unemployed improved by 14% according to both self-classification and the ILO definition compared to the same period of the previous year. Figure 5 Number of registered jobseekers and number of unemployed according to self-classification and ILO definition Thousand persons Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q LFS (self-classificaton) a) LFS (ILO) a) Registered jobseekers a) Since 26 re-weighted data. Source: Labour Force Survey, Register of the National Labour Office. In the population aged years, 2 million 87 thousand were inactive, 5.8% less than in the same period of the previous year, partly because of demographic reasons. While the continuous decrease in the number of the largest group of inactive people, i.e. pensioners and annuity recipients was mainly connected to the rise of retirement age, the change in the number of students was influenced by demographic reasons, the lower age limit for compulsory participation in public education and the slightly lower further education rate in the past 1 or 2 years. The number of cash unemployment benefit recipients who do not seek for a job fell drastically because of the change in regulations. Table 4 Number of inactive people aged years by the reason for absence from labour market 1 st half of 25 1 st half of 25 / 1 st half of 24 Denomination men women together men women together number, thousands corresponding period of the previous year=% Pensioners, annuity recipients Child care provision recipients Unemployment provision recipients Students Nursing and orphan s allowance recipients Other inactive Inactive people aged years, total Registered jobseekers In the 1 st half of 25, the monthly average number of jobseekers registered at the National Employment Office was thousand. Their monthly number followed more closely the evolution of public employment than the number of those defined as unemployed in the labour force survey. This is also the reason for the higher data in March; however, the trend in the number of unemployed is the same in the long run according to both concepts. Table 5 Major data of registered jobseekers Period Registered jobseekers careerstarters Of which: jobseekers' allowance or assistance recipients social benefits (person) without any provision 24 January 437,153 53,349 6,8 132, ,636 February 443,558 55,541 62, ,59 243,37 March 431,474 55,27 56, , ,553 April 413,739 52,825 53,359 13, ,441 May 514,356 62,431 6,86 158, ,713 June 438,571 56,9 56, , ,499 1 st half 446,475 55,911 58, ,25 249,35 25 January 413,825 5,2 62,23 129, ,7 February 43,79 52,88 62, ,84 226,438 March 462,37 55,739 69,692 15,24 242,5 April 414,855 52,738 57, 135, ,394 May 384,7 47,715 51, ,143 2,924 June 366,885 46,56 5,3 13,83 186,52 1 st half 412,169 5,819 58, , ,6 Change, % 1 st half of 25 / 1 st half of Source: Register of the National Labour Office ( The monthly average number of people eligible for insurance-based jobseekers allowance was only 58.8 thousand in the 1 st half of 25, nearly the same as a year earlier thousand people received social benefit. The majority of registered jobseekers, thousand people on average, did not receive any provision in cash. 2. Earnings, income from work 2.1. Gross earnings, income from work In the 1 st half of 25, in the field of observation employing 2 million 864 thousand people on the whole (corporations with at least 5 employees, budgetary institutions and designated non-profit organizations), average gross earnings were HUF thousand, 3.5% higher than one year earlier. Excluding public workers, the growth rate of earnings was 3.4% and average gross earnings amounted to HUF thousand. As of 1 st of January, the minimum wage rose to HUF 5 thousand and guaranteed minimum wage to HUF 122 thousand, and both corresponded to an increase of 3.4% compared to the 1 st half of 24. In the business sector, within average gross earnings of HUF thousand calculated without public workers, the proportion of non-regular earnings components (premiums, bonuses) continued to slightly increase. On the whole, the proportion of non-regular payments within total earnings was 8.2%, but it was 17.3% in the section of electricity, gas,

5 Statistical reflections 49/25 Labour market trends, 1 st half of 25 5 Total and regular average gross earnings with and without public workers, 1 st half 25 Table 6 Staff group National economy, total average gross earnings, total of which: regular Of which: business sector public sector non-profit organizations average gross of which: average gross of which: average gross of which: earnings, total regular earnings, total regular earnings, total regular Total, HUF/capita/month Manual 165, , ,581 17,39 126, , , ,342 Non-manual 328,877 3,78 391,7 348,26 257, ,77 271, ,433 Together 243, ,167 26,54 238, ,273 2, ,597 29,446 Previous year=.% Manual Non-manual Together Of which: without fostered workers, HUF/capita/month Manual 177,583 17, , ,26 172,552 17, , ,488 Non-manual 332,494 3,96 391, , , , ,63 266,686 Together 255, ,1 261, , , , , ,573 Previous year=.% Manual Non-manual Together Source: Monthly labour statistics. steam and air-conditioning supply and 15.6% in financial and insurance activities. Primarily non-manual workers receive payments mostly connected to some kind of performance indicators. Among sections of the national economy characterized by the predominance or exclusivity of the business sector, earnings are traditionally the highest in the section of financial and insurance activities, where average gross earnings were higher than half million forints (HUF 5. thousand/month) in the first half of the year. It was followed by the sections of information and communication (HUF thousand) and electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply (HUF 433. thousand). However, within manufacturing regarded as average in terms of earnings, in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products having a small headcount, the extremely high payment in May (more than HUF 1.4 million) raised average gross earnings of the first half year to HUF 69 thousand. At the other extreme of the ranking, the section of accommodation and food service activities (HUF thousand) could be found with its average earnings less than one and a half times of the minimum wage. The growth rate of earnings (and their level) in the public sector is strongly influenced by the change in the number of public workers in addition to the central measures which affected a certain range of employees in the past years. Since in the 1 st half of 25 the number of public workers was essentially the same in the public sector as one year earlier, there was a difference of only.3 percentage point in the growth rate of gross earnings calculated with and without them (2.6% and 2.9%, respectively). The faster growth of earnings without public workers can be explained by the fact that earnings of public workers were increased by 2.4% in 25 (from HUF 77,3 in 24 to HUF 79,155). Central salary adjustments for 25 (affecting people working in law enforcement, health and social care) took place with effect from 1 st of July, thus they did not have an impact on the growth rate of earnings in the 1 st half year. Within the public sector, earnings of non-manual workers in education grew the most (by 4.3%) in the first half of the year, since more and more people comply with the conditions of classification in a higher salary class. They were followed by the manual workers of the section (by 3.9%) and the manual workers in the section of human health and social work activities (by 3.7%). The latter ones received a smaller salary adjustment in the second half of 24, which has not been included in the basis. Thus, average earnings of manual workers of the section not employed as public workers were HUF thousand in the 1 st half of 25. (Average earnings of manual workers were even lower, HUF thousand in education.) In the 1 st half of 25, gross earnings of employees in budgetary institutions excluding the thousand public workers with average earnings of HUF 8.4 thousand were HUF thousand, nearly HUF 19 thousand less on the whole than earnings in the business sector. The majority of the difference can be attributed to non-regular earnings components, which amounted to a monthly average of HUF 8.1 thousand in budgetary institutions as opposed to HUF 21.3 thousand in the business sector. In non-profit organizations, which, due to their weight in employment, have a much smaller effect on the development of gross earnings in the national economy than the two above mentioned sectors, average gross earnings were HUF thousand calculated without public workers and HUF thousand including them. The former amount was associated with a growth rate of 2.2%, while the latter with a growth rate of 4.7% as a result of the decrease in the number of low-wage public workers. At budgetary institutions and non-profit organizations performing certain tasks, employees whose net earnings decreased due to the rules of personal income tax and contributions in force from 21 received compensation not making part of earnings. As a result of salary adjustments and demographic replacement, the range of employees concerned is continuously shrinking, but even so, in the 1 st half of 25, the number of people receiving compensation was 194 thousand, and the compensation amounted to an average of HUF 9,9 in budgetary institutions and HUF 9,3 in non-profit organizations, where only a few thousand people are affected. In the observed segment of the national economy, income from work, which, in addition to earnings, includes among others cafeteria or travel costs of commuting to work was HUF thousand, 3.4% higher than in the previous year. The monthly average amount of income from work was HUF thousand in the business sector and HUF thousand in budgetary institutions including public workers.

6 6 Labour market trends, 1 st half of 25 Statistical reflections 49/ Net earnings and family tax benefit In 25, similarly to the previous year, neither employees contribution rates nor personal income tax rules changed substantially, thus, the growth rate of net earnings was the same as that of gross earnings. On the level of the national economy, average net earnings were HUF thousand calculated without and HUF thousand calculated with public workers. People working in non-public employment received HUF thousand in the business sector and HUF thousand in budgetary institutions. Average net earnings of public workers amounted to HUF 52 thousand. Along with the.4% fall in consumer prices, the purchasing power of earnings was 3.9% (and 3.8% if the change in net earnings is calculated without public workers) higher than in the same period of the previous year. Since 21, the tax allowance has been HUF 62,5/dependant/month in case of one or two dependants and HUF 26,25/dependant/month in case of three or more dependants, and since 24, this can be deducted from employees pension and health contributions as well. In the 1 st half of 25, according to the results of the micro-simulation model using also the demographic and income data of households, family tax benefit resulted in an extra income of HUF 6.8 thousand per month on average. Calculated this way, average net earnings of employees caring for at least three dependants equalled HUF 26.5 thousand, more than HUF 5 thousand higher than those of employees who are not eligible for family tax benefit. Table 7 Net and real earnings taking into account family tax benefit, 1 st half 25 Number of dependants Calculated net earnings, HUF/capita/ month Net Real earnings earnings a) Change compared to the 1 st quarter of 24, % Distribution of number of employees, % 155, , , or more 26, National economy, total 166, a) Calculated with the consumer price index of 99,6% in Q1 Q2 25. Source: Monthly labour statistics and a micro-simulation model using data of the household budget and living conditions survey. Further information, data (links): Tables Tables (STADAT) Methodology Contact details: kommunikacio@ksh.hu Information service Telephone: HUNGARIAN CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE, 25 All rights concerning the layout, graphics and design work of this publication are reserved for HCSO. Any kind of reproduction of them has to be approved by HCSO. Any secondary publication is allowed only by the indication of source.