Labour market: No jobs or no employees? Žygimantas Mauricas February 24, 2015

Transcription

1 Labour market: No jobs or no employees? Žygimantas Mauricas February 24, 2015

2 European Commission Recommendations for Lithuania 1. Public finances: Expenditure control, taxation system reform, tax compliance 2. Pensions: Indexation (no ad-pol increases), alignment of retirement age with life expectancy, complementary savings schemes 3. Labour market: Long-term/structural unemployment, youth unemployment, flexibility of labour legislation, life-long learning 4. Poverty & social exclusion: Poverty reduction & social activation 5. State-owned enterprises (SOE): Transparency, separation of functions (commercial vs. non-commercial, ownership vs. regulatory) 6. Energy efficiency & infrastructure: Diversify energy sources, promote pan- Baltic gas and electricity markets, housing renovation

3 Lithuania: National reform programme Public finances: Pensions: Labour market: Poverty & social exclusion: State-owned enterprises (SOE): Energy efficiency & infrastructure: 4.6

4 Lithuania: National reform programme Public finances: Pensions: Labour market: Poverty & social exclusion: State-owned enterprises (SOE): Energy efficiency & infrastructure: 4.6

5 Lithuania: National reform programme Public finances: Pensions: 2.4 Post-euro relief Wait and see tactics 3. Labour market: 4.0 Symptoms vs. Disease 4. Poverty & social exclusion: 1.8 Some success 5. State-owned enterprises (SOE): 1.2 Ongoing progress 6. Energy efficiency & infrastructure: 4.6 Success story

6 Lithuania: National reform programme Public finances: Pensions: Labour market: 4.0 Symptoms vs. Disease 4. Poverty & social exclusion: State-owned enterprises (SOE): Energy efficiency & infrastructure: 4.6

7 Question: Why confidence of men are so much higher?

8 Answer: Construction sector

9 More men Men work in more-cyclical and shrinking sectors Employment by gender % of men Highly cyclical High-skilled Shrinking Mostly public sector More women Lithuania EU average Sources Eurostat, 2013

10 Economic crisis was extremely painful for men... Thousands Employment by gender Males Females Šaltiniai Madisson ir 67% % Unemployment rate by gender Men Women 22% 15% Source:

11 Active labour market policies were highly needed (fast) Employment in construction sector 240 Too late 200 Highly needed 160 Needed Šaltiniai Madisson ir Nordea

12 Effective one: Housing renovation programme Old renovation programme (laissez-faire): Renovation potential: 35,000 Renovated: 479 (1.4%) Still to go: (98.6%) Estimated completion: in 576 years (2590) New renovation programme from 2013 (stick & carrot) Renovation potential: Approved projects: 3462 (10%) Still to go: (90%) Estimated completion: in 18 years (2032) New renovation programme: Carrot: Prior to/after 2015 October 100%/50% project financing 40%/30% energy-saving investments Stick: Gradual reduction of heating subsidies Intermediation: Municipal administrators take loans on behalf of apartment owners Public opinion: 95% positive No Highly needed Housing renovation projects Needed Approved projects Too late Source: Ministry of environment 796

13 Too late

14 We have both: Lack of employees & lack of employment Employment change between 2012 Q3 and 2014 Q3 Lack of employment Lack of employees Thousands Hope 20 6, ,5-20 Manufacturing Construction -9,6 Other nonservice 50,2 Private service Future 3,6 Public service Sources

15 Labour market policies: Fighting with windmills? In 2013, as compared to 2012, funding for the active labour market policy (hereinafter the ALMP) was increased from LTL million to LTL million, allocating additional LTL 15 million (National reform programme, 2014) So that the funds allocated for funding active labour market policy measures intended for the creation of jobs and compensation of employment costs are used efficiently and effectively, a Description on the Procedure for Measuring and Evaluating the Efficiency and Performance of Operations of Public Employment Services (Labour Exchanges) < > was prepared in 2013 (National reform programme, 2014)

16 European Commission Recommendations: Labor market What to do? Tackle high unemployment rates with particular consideration to be given to the difficulties faced by the low-skilled, long-term unemployed and young people How to do? Improving the scope and efficiency of ALMPs, improving the quality of apprenticeship schemes, tackling skills mismatches and increasing the flexibility of labour legislation where appropriate Assessment: < > devising ALMPs of sufficient scope and quality, whose effects reach the intended target group, continues to be a challenge No significant steps have been taken to increase the flexibility of labour legislation Skills mismatches < > are increasingly leading to labour shortages in certain sectors and are limiting the flexibility of the labour force

17 Unemployment not high anymore Unemployment rate ,8 9, ,7 7, Lithuania EU average Sources: Eurostat & European Commission

18 Youth unemployment among the lowest in the EU

19 Are unemployed really interested in getting (official) work?

20 Unemployment per-se is not a major problem anymore it is employee-unfriendly labor market Compensation of employees as % of GDP % change % change EU (28 countries) Lithuania Latvia Estonia Sources: Eurostat & European Commission

21 Three problems: Low-tech, shadow economy and high taxation Compensation of employees to GDP vis-a-vis EU average Low-tech Capital-intensive High taxation / weak bargaining power Shadow economy Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Trade Transport Other Public sector services services services services Estonia Latvia Lithuania Source: Eurostat

22 1. Low-tech: Low investments in R&D R&D spending (target): Estonia: 2.1% (3%) Lithuania: 0.9% (1.9%) Latvia: 0.7% (1.5%) EU average: 2.0% (3.0%)

23 2. Shadow economy: High GDP, but low taxes/wages/pensions % of GDP GDP cake division % Lithuania vs. other Baltic States EU Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania Tax revenues as % of GDP Wages as % of GDP Source: Eurostat Latvia GDP per capita Average wage (net) Average pension Average wage Minimum wage Source: Eurostat Estonia

24 Tax wedge difference between 167% and 67% of AW 3. Taxation system: Promised & forgotten reform Anglo-Saxons: Realists Scandinavians: Idealists Western Europeans:??? Tax wedge on labour income (100% of AW) Sources: OECD & author s calculations

25 + Labour market flexibility In theory, theory and practice is the same, in practice it is not Global competitiveness report (2014/2015): Flexibility of wage determination: Lithuania 8/144 Hiring and firing practices: Lithuania 125/144 Redundancy costs, weeks of salary 112/144 In times of crisis: Theory: Sharp drop in wages Moderate increase in unemployment Practice: Wages dropped by 7% Unemployment increased 4 times

26 + Retaining/attracting talents EU accession (2014 May) Economic boom ( ) Economic crisis ( ) Eurozone economic crisis ( )

27 Technological Readiness Index (World Economic Forum, 2015) Global ranking: Lithuania: 28 Estonia: 29 Latvia: 32

28 Wage growth or emigration m m m m. devaluation revaluation devaluation revaluation % change % change ,4 3,2 7,5 5,8 11,4 12 7, ,2 14,7 20,5 19,4 17,5 14,1-4,4 (10,4) ,4-3,3 11,2 5,3 2,9 3,8 5,1 4,6 5 5,5 3,7 1,9 4,7 4,6 Internal devaluation (revaluation) Labour productivity per person employed Average wage Sources: Eurostat & European Commission

29 Future of the labor market The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment. Warren G. Bennis, 1991

30 Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any Thank you! Zygimantas Mauricas Chief Economist Lithuania Global Research, Nordea Markets zygimantas.mauricas@nordea.com 30